adam

To cap it off, how many players have had 700 solo tackles, 35 sacks, 50 passes defended, and 15 INT in their first 8 seasons? One player. Brian Urlacher. These are the main defender stats, zero cherry picking. This also counts Urlacher's shortened 2004 (missed 7 games).

Even wilder, how many players have had 500 solo tackles, 30 sacks, 30 passes defended, 6 INT, and 6 FF in their first 6 seasons? One player. Brian Urlacher. This also counts Urlacher's shortened 2004 (missed 7 games).

Brian Urlacher

If you look at this roster, the Bears played most of the season with only 3 defensive starters that are currently on the roster. So Week 1 this season will feature 8 new starters on defense, and at least 3 on offense from the end of last season. The offense is going from Claypool as the #1 at the end of the year to Moore, Mooney, Claypool TE goes from just Kmet, to Kmet, Tonyan, and Lewis. RB goes Monty/Evans to Foreman/Homer/Johnson Mustipher is no longer the Center and they added Wright. There literally has been no downgrades.

In Week 13 last season, the Bears had a 19-10 lead in the 4th quarter against GB (the last time they faced each other). Even after a GB TD that made it 19-17, Fields completed a 49 yard pass to Practice Squad WR N'Keal Harry that put the Bears in FG range, but Santos gets a 40-yard FG blocked, and GB goes on to score 11 more points against a Practice Squad level defense to win 28-19. The Bears current defensive starters that didn't play in that game or were not on the team yet include: Ngaokue, Walker, Billings, Edmunds, Edwards, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, and Jackson (9 defensive starters). The only two defensive starters that played were Justin Jones and Jaylon Johnson. This is a completely different defense. Then on offense, the Bears scored 19, should've been 22, but that didn't have Moore, Tonyan, Herbert, Foreman, Mooney, Scott, Wright, Davis, Feeney, and Taylor (WR/PR). With ESB, Pettis, and Harry getting targets, and Darryton Evans getting RB2 carries, Fields still finished 20-25, 254 yds, and had 6-71 and 1 TD on the ground for 325 all-purpose yards. The biggest issue was the 2 INTs, one when ESB forgot how to run a route and the 2nd was with 44 seconds, down by 9 (to Pettis). The odds that those throws happen again are unlikely if they are going to Moore and Mooney. Santos also missed an XP which would've made the last drive a potential game tying drive. Even though the Bears held a 4th quarter lead, this game was not one of the 8 decided by one score or less where the Bears went 1-7. Another reason to be optimistic.

This Christian Watson hype is crazy. People make him out to be a legit WR1. Does he have great speed, sure, but otherwise, where are the numbers? The most receptions he had in one game was 6 for 49 yards. He only had 3 games over 50 yards receiving. He was targeted less than Lazard, Jones, Tonyan, and Doubs last year, and only 7 more than the ancient Randall Cobb. Against the Bears, Watson had 3-9 yds, and 3-48 yds, and 1 Rec TD. He did have a 46 yard TD run, but that was when the Bears had traded or shutdown their entire defense. Even with that run, that's 51 yards per game against the Bears. Moore torched the Packers with scrub QBs, and Watson couldn't break 50 yards receiving with a HoF QB?

but Ray Lewis was the most dominant LB in that era, how could it possibly be Brian?

W - GB 8-9, w/ no Rodgers (3-5 on the road last year) W - @TB 8-9, Mayfield (@MIN week prior both teams travel) L - @KC 14-3 W - DEN 5-12, (1-8 on road last year, @MIA the week prior, back to back away for DEN) L - @WAS 8-8-1, w/ Howell at QB (TNF, @PHI week prior, short week, both travel) W - MIN 13-4, unsustainable, roster gutted (mini bye for Bears, MIN plays KC week prior) W - LVR 6-11, (2-7 on road last year, back to back home games for Bears) L - @LAC 10-7, (SNF, play at KC the week before) L - @NO 7-10, (@IND week prior, both teams travel) W - CAR 7-10, no McCaffrey or Moore (TNF, vs IND week prior 325pm SUN) L - @DET 9-8, Goff is still their QB (@LAC week prior, both teams travel) L - @MIN 13-4, unsustainable, roster gutted (MNF, @DEN week prior, both teams travel) BYE W - DET 9-8, Goff is still their QB (@NO week prior, Bears with bye and no travel) W - @CLE 7-10 W - ARZ 4-13, barebones roster tank mode (vs SF week prior) W - ATL 7-10, w/ Ridder at QB (back to back home games for Bears) L - @GB 8-9, w/ no Rodgers (@MIN week prior on SNF) So I relooked the schedule, if the Bears split home and home with divisional teams (3-3), it seems like they can beat DEN, LVR, CAR, ARZ, and ATL at home, and beat TB and CLE on the road. The team with the best record out of all of them is TB at 8-9 and that was with Brady, not Mayfield. They still lose to KC, WAS, LAC, and NO out of the division. That is 10-7 beating only 2 teams with winning records from last year (MIN and DET). Looking at the division games, it does make sense. Bears beat GB Week 1, beat MIN coming off mini-bye, and then DET off their real bye. They lose to DET and MIN in back to back weeks right before their bye (in need of a break), then lose to GB the last game of the season as the Bears rest starters for the Wild Card game. Seeing that only one team can get a bye, the seeding from 2-7 is almost irrelevant anymore. PHI 15-2, SF 13-4, DET 11-6, NO 9-8, DAL 11-6, CHI 10-7, SEA 10-7 NYG 9-8 and WAS 8-9 beat up on each other in packed NFC East, GB and MIN both finish around 7-8 wins, ARZ goes 1-16, CAR goes 3-14 (Bears get 2nd overall pick), LAR goes 4-13, ATL goes 5-12. CHI at DET (Bears win, Goff chokes and throws 4 INTs) SEA at SF (SF wins) DAL at NO (DAL wins) CHI at PHI (Bears win, Jalen Carter extends 2 drives with bone headed penalties, Bears fans rejoice over taking Wright) DAL at SF (SF wins, but Purdy gets hurt) CHI at SF (Bears win against Sam Darnold, Trey Lance becomes a Bears fan, SF looks even dumber for passing on Fields) CHI vs BUF (Bears win, Bills cannot stop Fields, who runs for 200 yards, Santos kicks GW FG, hits upright but goes in, the curse ends, this starts a BUF run of multiple SB losses.)

One last thing Bears fam, the Bears defense was TURRIBLE last year (channeling my inner Charles Barkley). The next best defense (LVR - 31st) was half as bad as the Bears. So if the defense can get to 25th, it will feel like a top 15 defense because just going from 32 to 31 is the same statistical gap than 31 to 26. With 6 new starters, and natural improvement from Gordon and Brisker, it is almost impossible to repeat their futility.

It is comical for me, because they had every opportunity to turn to Love last season after a 3-6 start. Instead, they stuck with Rodgers, who got them all the way to 4-8 (1-2 in next 3 games). People don't realize how bad it was. Rodgers, Mr. Chicago didn't have a 300-yd game, and only had one game over 260 yds (291 in a loss). He had 94 rushing yards, but took 258 yards in losses from sacks. So it's great that he threw for 3695 yds, but his net total yards were 3531 in 17 games. Fields had 3026 in 15 games. Per game averages 207 and 201 respectively. Total TDs, Rodger 27 in 17 games, Fields 25 in 15 games. Rodgers TDs per game: 1.58 vs Fields TDs per game: 1.66. Love couldn't beat Rodgers out or force GB to sit him. If Love was that good, and they didn't put him in over Rodgers, their little douche coach is a wuss.

and if GB loses and Love plays bad, talk about a potential franchise defining moment, he may never recover.

DJ Moore vs GB: 2020-12-19 > 6-131 yds 2019-11-10 > 9-120 yds Averaging 7.5 receptions and 125 yards a game as the WR1 (both games in GB), not bad. Khalil Herbert in his only start against GB: 19-97 yds, 5.1 YPC, 1 TD, 2 rec, 15 yds. If Herbert is over 100 total yards on offense and Moore is over 100 yards receiving, I like our chances.

Fields' stats really got pounded by his rookie year with Nagy. That has skewed a lot of his career numbers and brought him down to Blaine Gabbert levels, when he should not even be used in the same sentence as Gabbert. There are several comps for Fields, but some easy ones are when Year 3 QBs get their true WR1s. In these cases, you can see the meteoric jump in stats. To make it easy, I just used QBR, which uses a collection of the normal stats to come up with one number. As you can see below, Josh Allen was a league average QB before Diggs arrived, Hurts was slightly above average before he got Brown, and Tua was slightly above league average before Hill came to town. Looking at their seasons, Fields with Nagy was only slightly worse than Hurts his rookie year, yet Fields was the best 2nd year QB out of the 4. So it seems like a logical guess that Fields will improve no worse than the lowest improvement from Year 2 to 3 (Hurts' at +13.7), which would be Fields at a 70 QBR (which would be a top 5 QB). QBR Allen 49.8 > 49.4 > 76.6 (+26.2) Hurts 33.8 > 54.6 > 68.3 (+13.7) Tua 44.8 > 55.7 > 70.6 (+14.9) Fields 31.4 > 56.3 > ??? The narrative for Fields is really solely based on cumulative numbers that include his year with Nagy, running for his life. Just by removing the Cleveland game where it seemed like Nagy was purposely sabotaging Fields, his average numbers go up across the board. He was sacked 36 times in 2021, and 25% of those came in the Cleveland game where he completed only 6 passes. 9 sacks, 6 completions! Almost impossible. His Comp% goes from 58.9% to 61.2% without that game. If you start his season with the Detroit game the following week, he averaged 192 passing yards a game the rest of the season (with a BAL game where he had 79 passing yards).

Record - 9-8 (I have been flipping flopping on this from 7 to 11 wins, but will stick with something in the middle. A few facts to consider, the Bears were 1-7 in one score games last year and lost a few in brutal fashion. If those games even out, the Bears are 6-10. Considering they have an easier schedule this year, that ups it to 7 wins. Then consider offensive improvement (Moore, Wright, etc) for 1 game, and defensive improvement (6 new starters) for 1 game, and you can get to 9 easily. Without any other factors considered, they are 9-8. MVP - Fields (Even if he improves as a passer due to Moore +, his legs are what make him special. That dual threat is hard for any other player to beat for MVP) OPOY - Moore (Probably should be Fields too, but I will go with Moore here with over 1K yards and a ton of YAC. He is going to be Fields' EZ Button) DPOY - Edmunds (I was thinking Brisker or Johnson too, but if the defense as a whole is better, Edmunds will be a huge part. His size is going to cut down on those gimme seam passes and shallow crossers that shredded the defense the last few years). ROY - Stevenson (He has the makings of a top pairing CB if he can cut down on penalties; he will lead the team in INTs). Comeback - Claypool (Pretty hard not to improve on what he did last year, but I think he gets more than double that. Moore is going to take a ton of attention away from Claypool, leaving him with CB2 or CB3 without overhead cover.) What are your predictions for: Record - MVP - OPOY - DPOY - ROY - Comeback -

We made it! Week 1 is almost here. Are you ready for some football. This is one of those polarizing games where a win could propel the Bears to something big, but a loss at home to the Packer without Rodgers will be a tough loss to recover from. The Packers are 0-5 in any game where Love had 5 or more passing attempts. In the two games where he had substantial playing time, they lost both and he put up these total numbers: Totals - 29-51, 324 yds, 56.8%, 6.4 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT One game average - 14.5-25.5, 162 yds, 56.8%, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 1.5 INT I could care less about preseason or how he has looked in practice. The above stats are who he is until he shows that he is not. If that is the QB the Bears are playing next Sunday, it's a Bears win. If he plays substantially better, then the Bears will be in a firefight. My initial projection is Bears 24-17. Both teams get at least 2 TDs, Bears get a 3rd that ultimately decides the game. The Packers have the ball with a chance to tie and turnover on downs to seal it.

So I was looking up some stats and found a pretty wild one. There is one player in NFL history to have 5 INTs, 15 sacks, 20 PDs, and over 300 solo tackles in his first 3 seasons. He had 6 INTs, 18.5 sacks, 20 PDs, 306 solo tackles, plus 44 TFLs, 4 FF, and 5 FR, and 1 TD in his first 3 years. I was honestly shocked that he was the only player to achieve this, and is still the only player to date. Since TFLs were not recorded properly until the 2000s, I didn't use that in the search, but that would've made it even more inclusive of a club. Just off the top of your head, who do you think it would be?

no problem, I just changed it, so you should be able to pay $75 again.

4 months, well, keep that thing immobilized so it can heal. No prob on Mike's payment. I think I can change your fees to $150, which will show that you owe $75 and Mike owes $0. If you want me to do that, let me know. Otherwise, he can pay whenever, I was just trying to close that out before the season started.

How's your neck doing?

Poles does not seem to be afraid of cutting ties sooner than later. With Kick returns getting trivialized, Velus needs to be a contributor on offense, otherwise his roster spot is a wasted slot.

Jones was a high 3rd round pick. I don't recall seeing any projections of him earlier than the 4th, mainly a 4th to 5th round projection, so going early in the 3rd seemed like a reach. The age was always going to be a factor as well. It felt Shaheen-like at the time. If all he ends up is a kick returner, I doubt he gets a 2nd contract from the Bears.

Poles had a little bit of Pace-itis with the Velus pick (smartest guy in the room syndrome). However, the next 2 WRs after Velus have not done much either. Jalen Tolbert - 2-12, 0 TD David Bell - 24-214, 0 TD, KR 1-12 Compare to Velus: Receiving: 7-107, 1 TD, Rushing: 9-103 yds, 1 TD, PR 5-35yds, KR 22-607yds So all-purpose yard-wise, Velus had 852 yds last year in 12 games. Considering all those yards, Velus has the 4th most all-purpose yards out of all the 2021 WRs, but was the 14th WR selected. He also had the same number of TDs as Alec Pierce, and one more than Burks. 1. Wilson - 1107 yds 2. Olave - 1042 yds 3. London - 866 yds 4. Jones - 852 yds, 2 TD 5. Pickens - 825 yds 6. Watson - 726 yds 7. Pierce - 593 yds, 2 TD 8. Dotson - 516 yds 9. Burks - 491 yds, 1 TD 10. Doubs - 475 yds

Duane, any chance of getting a hold of Mike before the draft tonight so he is not an auto draft?

Peterman gets added to the 53-man. So down to 8 OL now (Patrick, Carter, and Borom are backups).

The Bears may have the best RBBC in the NFL. There is not much drop off from Herbert to Foreman to Johnson. I expect some big chunk yard runs in the 4th quarter when the defenses are wearing down and Johnson has fresh legs. The O-Line is a concern, which is crazy to think but Poles counted on Jenkins and Patrick being healthy when they have shown they can't be. With Whitehair back at LG, assuming Feeney plays Center, where does Jenkins go when he comes back in 4-5 weeks? Do they bench Whitehair? Move him back to Center? It is going to be interesting.