adam

The good thing overall is that we are worrying about bottom of the roster guys, not starters, not backups, and the bottom 4-5 guys on the roster barely play significant minutes, if any. That is a good sign. If you think of target count, majority of the targets will go to WR1, WR2, TE1, RB1, then WR3, WR4, TE2, and RB2 will get almost all of the others. The Bears are stacked in those positions with Moore, Claypool, Kmet, and Herbert, then Mooney, Velus, Tonyan, and Foreman. WR5, TE3, and RB3 will all have less than 10. Scott/ESB, Lewis, and Roschon/Homer. In terms of snaps on defense, the DT rotation is deep, and DE now has 5 guys. LB Corps is stacked (Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell), and the secondary is sneaky good (Jackson, Brisker, Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson/Smith). I feel better about the top 50 guys than I have in a long time. This is probably your bottom 10 of the 53-man: QB2 - Walker, PJ U/CAR CB6 - Vildor, Kindle 20/5 or Jones, Jaylon CF22 (ST) DE5 - Gipson, Trevis 20/5 or Lewis, Terrell SF22 TE3 - Lewis, Marcedes U/GB OL9 - Leatherwood, Alex W/LV LB5 - Cole, Dylan U/TEN (ST) WR6 - St. Brown, Equanimeous U/GB (ST) S4 - Williamson, Kendall 23/7 (ST) RB4 - Homer, Travis U/SEA (ST) LB6 - Johnson, Buddy U/PIT (ST)

Man, I was thinking the same thing. Super fun I am sure, but the last thing we need is a guy twisting his knee trying to avoid getting hit by a water balloon.

Yeah, I assume Patrick is safe because of the Getsy connection, but they also have Doug Kramer, who was a 6th rounder last year. In a backup role, is Kramer + $3.9M more valuable than Patrick? I think Vildor or Gipson could also be cap casualties as they can get the same production from vet minimum guys and save $2.7M each.

I doubt the Bears go into Week 1 with only 2 backup LBs, 6 seems like the number, and they cut Weatherford for Johnson, so I was just making an educated guess there. There is no way Gipson or Lewis make it to the PS as the Bears have to waive them first.

The last WR spot seems up for grabs between ESB and Pettis. It just feels like Pettis is slightly redundant with Scott and Velus, but I could be wrong. I was thinking that Getsy likes "his" guys (ESB, Patrick, Tonyan, and now Lewis).

Here is my best 53-man guesstimate as of 8/5. Getting DL down to 9 is going to be tough. Blue/Bold is the Special Teamers. The Bears lost key ST contributors in DHC, J. Thomas, S. Weatherford, M. Adams, R. Griffin, and look like they will be losing Ebner's, and maybe even Jaylon Jones' ST snap share. 2 QB Fields, Justin 21/1 Walker, PJ U/CAR - This seems like a lock, a 3rd QB would be a waste. 4 RB Herbert, Khalil 21/6 Foreman, D'Onta U/CAR Johnson, Roschon 23/4 (ST) - replaces Ebner Homer, Travis U/SEA (ST) - replaces Griffin - I don't see more than 4, Ebner odd man out here. 1 FB - Blasingame, Khari U/TEN (ST) 3 TE Kmet, Cole 20/2 Tonyan, Robert U/GB Lewis, Marcedes U/GB - I don't see them carrying 4, which other position would you take from to carry 4? Tonges to PS? 6 WR Moore, DJ T/CAR Mooney, Darnell 20/5 Claypool, Chase T/PIT Scott, Tyler 23/4 Jones Jr., Velus 22/3 (ST) St. Brown, Equanimeous U/GB (ST) > this WR slot is almost exclusively ST. - WR6 is going to be very interesting. That WR will see basically 0 offensive snaps, and ESB doesn't play ST. I can't see Poles giving up on Velus this soon, and Scott was a 4th rounder (they rarely go to the PS). So they may just rearrange these guys and bump ESB up to WR4, but that seems counter productive. 9 OL LT Jones, Braxton 22/5 LG Davis, Nate U/TEN C Whitehair, Cody 16/2 RG Jenkins, Teven 21/2 RT Wright, Darnell 23/1 Borom, Larry 21/5 Patrick, Lucas U/GB Carter, Ja'Tyre 22/7 Leatherwood, Alex W/LV - I don't know if they will carry 9 or 10 OL on opening day. That will actually have a pretty big roster impact as I think it would come from the DL. If Patrick can play both Center and Guard, do you really need more than 2 Interior and 2 Tackle subs? DEFENSE 9 DL LDE Ngakoue, Yannick U/IND LDT Jones, Justin U/LAC RDT Billings, Andrew U/LV RDE Walker, DeMarcus U/TEN Green, Rasheem U/TEX Dexter, Gervon 23/2 Pickens, Zacch 23/3 Robinson, Dominique 22/5 Gipson, Trevis 20/5 or Lewis, Terrell SF22 - With 7 new acquisitions in this group, this is a group to watch. Travis Bell, Andrew Brown, D'Anthony Jones, and Bravvion Roy are currently the odd men out, and either Gipson or Lewis, who has been a camp standout. Another cut candidate could be Green ($1.6M in savings) if they like Gipson and Lewis better than Green. 6 LB WLB Edwards, T.J. U/PHI MLB Edmunds, Tremaine U/BUF SLB Sanborn, Jack CF22 (ST) Sewell, Noah 23/5 (ST) - replaces Thomas Cole, Dylan U/TEN (ST) - replaces Weatherford Johnson, Buddy U/PIT (ST) - replaces Adams - this group seem fairly locked in with 5 new guys out of 6. 6 CB LCB Johnson, Jaylon 20/2 RCB Stevenson, Tyrique 23/2 NB Gordon, Kyler 22/2 Smith, Terell 23/5 Blackwell, Josh W/PHI (ST) Vildor, Kindle 20/5 or Jones, Jaylon CF22 (ST) > this DB slot has to play ST - CB6 is going to be very interesting. Since the Bears drafted 2x CBs that are expected to make the roster, that really pushes Vildor, Jones, and guys like Stroman basically off the roster. If CB6 is an ST slot, Jaylon Jones is the front runner. If not, then Vildor has a chance, but then you need to find another rostered player to take Jones' snaps on ST. 4 S SS Brisker, Jaquan 22/2 FS Jackson, Eddie 17/4 Hicks, Elijah 22/7 (ST) Williamson, Kendall 23/7 (ST) - replaces DHC - This group seems like a lock, but there is a chance that someone like Trahan makes a big enough impact to replace Williamson or Hicks. Neither are roster locks, but both of those slots will be playing ST. Hicks probably has the upper hand with a year under his belt. Thoughts? Did I jack something up? Did I miss someone. For me the surprise cuts would be ESB on offense and Gipson ($2.7M savings) or Vildor ($2.7M savings) on defense. If they can't make the 53-man, as vets, they would be cut, saving some cap.

You make your own luck. Poles put himself in this position with the cap flexibility and could at the same time outbid someone if needed, but still hold to his guns and get a decent value. Not only was Ngakoue one of the top free agents remaining, he was one of the top FAs for this offseason. If you remove the guys who resigned with their own teams, he ended up being a top 20 FA. It is funny because the media doesn't know how to handle it. Before the offseason, all they talked about was how bad Edge was, and now we go into the season with two new starters (Ngakoue 9.5 sacks and Walker 7 sacks), a new rotational guy (Green 3.5 sacks) and maybe even a new diamond in the rough in Terrell Lewis. So guys like Gipson and Robinson are pushed back down into the rotation where they are more effective too.

Checking on snap counts, the WR6 last season got a total of 34 snaps all season on offense, which was only over a 5 game span. Meaning, the WR6 did not have a single offensive snap in 12 games last year. So that guy is going to be a core ST'er.

The TE3 got 80 total snaps last season with a high of 13 in Week 10. Since Lewis is much better than even our TE2 last year, I expect him to have more, but 10 snaps a game is probably what he will average.

The D-Line is still probably the weakest unit on the team, but it shouldn't be the worst in the NFL, especially if Dexter is impactful. For the other units, you can go through each one, and most are top 15 units at worst. So say D-Line is bottom 5. LB Corps has to be top 5 with Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn. Secondary is probably top 15 (may be higher if Gordon really improves). So the defense should be no worse than top 15-18. On offense, O-Line is probably top 20 at worst, as individually, they all graded out in the top 15. WR Corps is top 15 with DJ Moore. TE Corps is top 10. RB Corps is top 15. So it will come down to Fields. If he is top 15, the Bears will be a playoff team. The top 14 teams make the playoffs and it feels like the NFC is weaker this year. DET is favored in the North and every team in the South had a losing record last year. PHI and SF are probably the two best teams, and DAL and SEA are pesky. So that last WC slot should be up for grabs with NYG.

If anything, he is super consistent.

Good one, I never really thought about him, but he is a premier blocking TE.

I don't know what to believe, but Gabriel still has NFL connections, and if he says this guy acts like a pro, then I have to take his word for it.

Poles must be reading Talkbears. He is going right down the list and closing out the roster question marks. All that is left is bottom of the roster spots, OL9, WR6, LB6, CB6, and S4. Technically all have players competing there, but an outside upgrade would not hurt.

This may not sound like a big deal, but TE was an issue last year after Kmet, and the Bears needed 3 on the 53-man roster. This really upgrades TE3 from the likes of Chase Allen and Jake Tonges to Marcedes Lewis.

At the start of Free Agency, NFL.com listed their top 100 FAs. After the Yannick signing, here is what Poles did (w/ 2023 Cap hits): 27. Tremaine Edmunds ($14.6M) 34. Yannick Ngakoue ($10.5M) 44. Nate Davis (6.9M) 59. TJ Edwards ($5M) 89. Robert Tonyan ($2.6M) Also signed Demarcus Walker ($6.4M), D'onta Foreman ($2M), Andrew Billings ($2.7M), Travis Homer ($1.7M), Rasheem Green ($2.4M), Dylan Cole ($1M), and Terrell Lewis ($1M) who all should contribute. That's 12 players for $56M. Drafted: Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Tyler Scott, Roschon Johnson, Terrell Smith, and Kendall Williamson. Then acquired DJ Moore via trade. That is 21 new players that should see significant snaps, and more than likely 9 starters (out of 22) from this group (Moore, Edmunds, Edwards, Ngakoue, Davis, Walker, Wright, Stevenson, Dexter/Billings). The other 13 are Fields, Mooney, Claypool, Kmet, Jones, Jenkins, Whitehair, Herbert, Jones, Sanborn/Gordon, Johnson, Brisker, and Jackson. So who is the worst starter on offense and defense? On offense, Nate Davis? On defense, Justin Jones? If for some reason the Bears wanted to clear more cap, they could cut Patrick and save $3.9M (possible), or Vildor and save $2.7M. Those seem like fairly high cap savings for the amount of snaps those guys will see. The Bears are now at $17.7M in cap space (8th in NFL), that $6.6M would bump them back to $24.3M (2nd). It is still crazy to think Poles did all of that and still has the 8th most cap available which he can roll over to 2024 if he wants to.

Yes Sir, there is one Vet Edge signed, to a one year deal no less. Poles is dealing.

For QB Tiers for me, it's: Mahomes ----------- Hurts Burrow Allen ----------- Herbert Lawrence Jackson Fields Watson Prescott -------- R. Wilson Smith D. Jones Tua Cousins Goff Murray ------ Mariota M. Jones Carr Pickett Love

Some of the naysayers use advanced metrics to say how bad Fields has been. However, since Week 5 of last season, he has at least been middle of the pack at worst. The problem is they either rope in his rookie stats with Nagy or the first few weeks with Getsy. Week 5 > Week 18 QB Rankings EPA+CPOE Composite - 16th (ahead of Herbert, Murray, Carr, Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson, Jones, Pickett) EPA/Play - 15th (ahead of Tannehill, Murray, Herbert, Smith, Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson, Jones, Pickett) So Fields was actually a league average QB last with a terrible O-Line, Mooney hurt, and a new Claypool. Now he gets an upgraded O-Line, 2nd year in system, while adding DJ Moore, a healthy Mooney, Claypool knowing the offense, and Tonyan to the receiving options. It is hard for me to believe he will not be better just based on the situation. If he also improves personally, there is no reason to believe he can't be a top 8-10 QB this year statistically across the board.

I also like the ramp up thing they are doing, basically giving all players the same amount of reps, then stepping them up slowly. So that is why some subs are playing with the 1s, and starters playing with the 2s and 3s. Rep chart, not a depth chart.

Man, if Kyler Gordon plays to his potential, this secondary is going to make some plays, and that celebration is sick:

The only concern right now seems to be Nate Davis.

A lot of bright spots, but Nate Davis is a concern to me. He didn't show up for voluntary OTAs (as a new FA), and now has missed some time during training camp without any indication from the team on why he is not present. Seems like a concern because everyone had him penciled in at RG.

There seems to be a growing national media hype about Fields this offseason. He went from a Running QB to a potential MVP Candidate.

I saw a tweet that stated the Bears were 1 of 4 teams with 3x WRs that have had a 850 yard season. They are the only team with 3 players that had over 700 yards rushing last year. Fields - 1143, Foreman - 914, Herbert - 731. The Bears are also only one of two teams to have 2x TEs who had 450 yards or more in 2022 (CHI and CLE). To me, that is pretty impressive to have that type of offensive output at all skill positions on offense. It also shows the depth.