adam

Sounds good, thanks.

It really is. No matter how you cut the stats up in the first two years, if you count all the games, the odds are against him but he still has a shot. I would have to look back at some of the other QBs on the list, but I don't know if any had such a bad supporting cast and team the first two years, then got an influx of talent in Year 3 like he has. So it will definitely be one of the most interesting years we have had in a long time.

The Chargers and Lions on the road is pretty shocking to be honest. 4.5 seems low for those two teams against the Bears. Even 6 (still under a TD) would seem more on point. To me, KC is really the only game that is a guaranteed loss. That would be an upset of epic proportions, but being in Week 3, anything is possible. For the Division, I feel like the Bears will go 4-2 with some combo of sweeping one team and splitting with the 2 others. They are favored in 5 non-division games, so that is 9 wins, not counting potential wins against DEN, NO, WAS, and CLE. It is hard for me to see the Bears losing to all 4 of those teams. So just say they win 1 out of those 4 where they are the underdog, like Jason said, 10 wins is there, and it really is not that far of a reach. On the flip side, if they only split the division, don't win any of those 4 and lose a 1 non-division game they are favored in (TB, LVR, CAR, ARZ, ATL), they finish 7-10. So 7-10 wins seems like the range. If 7.5 is the over/under, the over seems like a very solid bet.

Another name is Justin Houston, played in KC with Poles. Won't break the bank or be looking for a long term deal at his age. Had 9.5 sacks and an INT last year. His sack totals for the last 6 years: 9.5, 4.5, 8, 11, 9, and 9.5. compare to Ngakoue's: 9.5, 10, 8, 8, 9.5, 12 Outside of Houston's bad 2021, their sacks totals are identical for the other 5 years (interesting). Obviously Houston's age is the biggest issue. I would not be opposed to a multi-year deal for Ngakoue (2-3 years). Just one vet Edge really changes the landscape of the entire line and defense by bumping the other guys down the depth chart where they would be better suited. The Edge group would still be one of the worst in the league, but more like bottom 1/3 vs dead last.

Claypool just seems like the outcast of the group. Mooney already has a great relationship with Fields. Moore is clearly making one. It just seems like he is the odd man out. He can't be happy that they traded for Moore AND drafted Scott. Again, I think it was sort of desperation move on Poles part. At the time, FA was terrible for WRs, Mooney was hurt and his status was unknown going forward. So Claypool looked enticing, but even if the Bears were picking 15th in the 2nd at the time (Pick #47), he was the 49th pick and was being dangled at the trading deadline. If he was that good, why did Pittsburgh draft Pickens when they already had Johnson and Claypool? You normally don't draft a WR in the 2nd round to be WR3. So the writing was on the wall for Claypool when 2022 started. Can you imagine if the Bears kept the pick, and got Joey Porter Jr at CB, or went Edge, or even traded back from there?

Yeah, the pick compensation is great. He has been like a 2nd GM since joining the team, and you know anywhere he goes that Poles and him can then work together to continue to build their own franchises. So in a way, Cunningham may be even more valuable as a new GM somewhere else where the Bears get back to back 3rd round comp picks and potentially some external assistance with trades that benefit both sides.

Stinger, you said you had a guy, we still need one to lock us in for this season?

The gift that keeps on giving. I thought a 2nd rounder was steep for a WR3, but at the time, not knowing they would be able to get Moore, I understood it. However, now after a good chunk of the season, an entire offseason, and now he lands on the PUP for the start of the real offseason training camp. Not a good trend. With the addition of guys like Moore, Tonyan, and even Scott, and possibly some increased PT for Velus, Claypool is going to be the odd man out. Only so many targets to go around. It seems like the pecking order is Moore, Mooney, Kmet, Tonyan, RB1, Scott, then Velus or Claypool. By the time you get to the 5th player, that is about 5 targets a game.

Very true, just an unbiased assessment without being too subjective either from the 3 win, 10 straight loss season, or drinking the koolaid.

Walker is putting in the work. Everywhere he travels, he is working it. Nice to see.

I think Sanborn's injury is another reason why they doubled up on LB in free agency. He is still an unknown at this point in his recovery, and the Bears need more knowns to improve that defense.

They need reps, a ton of them. Until they are comfortable with all the wrinkles, it will be clunky. They are still in the phase where they have to think about what they are doing, instead of it being instinctual.

What is wild is there is almost zero correlation between any Bears team before 2020 and this team.

For me, it is fine. I think that changes as the date gets closer and the media/Vegas can see how Fields and Love look. Right now that is a good bet to take the Bears as a FG win beats the odds. The Bears a 7.5 wins is another decent bet. Fields as Offensive PoY is +2200 on FanDuel. It seems like a decent bet for $10, MVP +2000.

One problem, like an MSRP, is the anchor point. Fields new norm is 2500 yds passing and anything wildly over that number is seen as too unrealistic. 226 yds per game passing for 17 games would be a Bears franchise record. Fields had 7.1 yds per attempt, but had such a low number of attempts, it really messes with the numbers. That was 14th in the NFL for QBs with 2K passing yards or more. Middle of the pack. So if he gets middle of the pack attempts, he magically jumps over 3800 yds easily. I still feel like he will end up around 3500 passing yards with 800 rushing yards but I really think we are underestimating how bad the WR Corps was last year. Moore is going to give Fields 2-3 easy completions per game (which will add up to +500 yds right off the top from last year). Claypool as a WR3, Tonyan as a TE2. This is a sneaky good Receiving Corps with options out of the backfield (Homer especially).

Here are the best seasons for the top 4 receiving options for Fields: 87-1175, 4 81-1055, 4 62-873, 9 50-544, 7 That is 280-3647 yds, 24 TDs combined for just Moore, Mooney, Claypool, and Kmet. Take 10% off that for shared targets and you still have 252-3283, 21 TDs to just the top 4 players. No RBs, no WR4-5, and no TE2-3. Last year, with the worst passing offense in the league, Monty had 34-316, 1 TD, ESB/Pringle/Pettis/Jones combined for 57-810, 7 TD 91-1126, 8 TD and Herbert as RB2 had 9-57, and 1 TD, so the remainder of the receivers totaled 100-1183, 9 TD, if you take 10% off for shared targets, that is 90-1065, 8 TD. So in theory, if the top 4 receivers play near their potential and the rest of the receivers do what they did last year, that would be near 342-4348 yds, and 29 TDs. So no koolaid here, take 10% off those numbers for overlapping shared targets and a potential for less attempts: 308-3913, 26 TDs. Thoughts on those numbers over 17 games (230 yds per game, 1.5 TDs a game)?

OK, we need 5 GMs, for the following settings change: 1. Add a 3rd IR slot to each roster (due to increased length of season to 17 games and 18 weeks). Right now we have 3 votes (Mongo, Stinger, and myself), so we need 2 more.

Jacksonville went 3-14 to 9-8. That also included a coaching and scheme change. Comparing the teams, Fields vs Lawrence is a wash, Etienne/Robinson vs Herbert/Foreman is also probably a wash. WRs? Kirk/Jones/Jones vs Moore/Mooney/Claypool, edge Bears. TEs? Engram/Arnold vs Kmet/Tonyan, edge Bears. For O-Line, edge Jags until we see what the Bears unit can do. So it is not out of the realm of possible for the Bears to get 8 or 9 wins and be in the playoff hunt. The division is a lot weaker than it has been in a long time.

Current Keepers: Fields of Dreams - Amari Cooper - 9th, Treylon Burks - 11th SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 5th, Drake London - 8th Victorious Secret - Tony Pollard - 5th MotM - Kenneth Walker - 13th

Walker is good to go for a 13th (was drafted in the 14th), however, Brian Robinson ended the season on MadLith's team. For the rule changes, we are currently at 17 roster spots and 2 IR spots, so we will definitely have to vote on those changes. With the league going to 17 games and 18 weeks, 17 players was sort of the sweet spot to help with bye weeks and injuries (non-IR).

If I switch things around, look for QBs with at least 4K yards, 24 TDs, less than 25 INTs, over 59% Comp rate, Fields ends up in a group of 24 QBs at #23 for QB Rating and dead last in yards and TDs. Trubisky was 15th for QB Rating, 19th in yards, 20th in TDs. So we have seen some pretty poor young QB play for quite some time.

Lol but in his Seattle days. I sorted by Rating, but did not include it in the filter. The only other stat was sacks over 50. So basically Fields is the best of this group when it comes to rating, Comp%, and top 3 in TDs.

14 first rounders and 6 #1 overall picks. Fields was actually the 4th latest draft slot of this group.

I was looking at some stats to see if there were other cases of QBs with similar stats to Fields after their second years, and surprisingly, there were actually quite a few and some that ended up very successful. Here is a screenshot of the output. 16 QBs qualified, since 1980, in their first two seasons, totaled less than 30 TDs, more than 20 INTs, Comp % under 60, and yards less than 5000.

I just hope Fields works out. His play will be the difference between 10 wins and 5 wins. If he plays like he did in college and carries the team with his arm and legs, this team can win 10. If he struggles to read defenses and complete short passes, this team will be lucky to win 5 or 6. Very few QBs have turned into any special with 25 starts under their belts with 24 TDs and 21 INTs averaging 150 passing yds per game. Lamar Jackson already had his MVP season by start 22. Josh Allen is close, but even he had more TDs, yards and less INTs at that point. Jalen Hurts is also close, but I don't think the Bears have the same number of vets the Eagles had in 2022. So from a pure "stats" perspective, Fields is no different than other failed 1st round pick QBs at this point. The good thing is the Bears have a safety net. If Fields doesn't play well, the stats didn't lie, and the Bears will have 2 top 10 draft picks to move up and get one of the no-brainer QB picks in 2024. Also, if Fields is bad, the Bears may have 2x top 5 picks, which could allow them to get a QB and another player in the top 10 next year.