adam

I have seen some saying the Davis signing may be the most underrated by the end of the year.

I was looking over some stats and noticed a few things that got me excited. Regardless of what you may think, the Bears are closer to the 2022 Eagles than they are to the 2022 Bears this year. Jalen Hurts was in his 3rd year and finally broke thru with a new WR1 in AJ Brown. He ended the year with the following line: Passing: 306-460, 66.5%, 3701 yds, 22 TD, 6 INT; Rushing: 165 ATT, 760 yds, 13 TD If you simply give Fields the same number of attempts for both passing and rushing, his numbers (from 2022 w/o Moore) would look like this: Passing: 277-460, 60.4%, 3243 yds, 25 TD, 16 INT; Rushing: 165 ATT, 1179 yds, 9 TD Outside of the INTs, that is a pretty solid season with over 4400 total yards and 34 total TDs. Again, this does not account the addition of Moore which should improve Fields' Comp%, Y/A, and Y/G. If we use Hurts' improvement from Year 2 to 3, and apply that to Fields new numbers (which would now include Moore), he would end up with the following: Passing: 296-460, 64.6%, 3731 yds, 28 TD, 13 INT So Fields would have more passing yards and TD than Hurts in 2022, but more INTs and a slightly lower Comp%. To me, these numbers feel very realistic. What do you think? Can Fields hit 3700 passing yards? 28 TDs? Looking at the different units, the Eagles obviously win in the trenches, not even close when it comes to O-Line and D-Line, but every other unit seems to be some good comps. 2022 PHI - 2023 CHI QB - Hurts vs Fields RB - Sanders/Gainwell/Boston vs Herbert/Foreman/Johnson/Homer WR - Brown/Smith/Watkins/Pascal vs Moore/Mooney/Claypool/Scott TE - Goedert/Stoll vs Kmet/Tonyan I would give the Bears the edge for groups in RB and TE, and WR is a push as the Bears are deeper, but the Eagles have the higher ceiling with Brown and Smith. For QB, I will say it is a push because going into 2022 there were the same questions about Hurts as there are about Fields now. O-Line goes to the Eagles. So if you count OL as 2, QB as 2, and all other groups as 1. The Eagles get 2 for OL, Bears get 1 for RB, and 1 for TE, with QB as a push. The teams are very close on offense with Philly having a slight edge because how good their O-Line was. On defense, the Eagles get 2 for their D-Line. The Bears have potential there, but too many unknowns. For LBs, the Bears 2023 corps is elite and has Edwards from the 2022 Eagles, so 1 for the Bears. Then for the secondary, the Bears have the better Safeties in Brisker/Jackson vs Epps/Blankenship and the Eagles have the edge for CBs with Slay, Gardner-Johnson, and Bradberry vs Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson, but it is close, especially if Gordon is improved in the slot and Stevenson is the real deal on the outside. So that makes it a push in the secondary, the Eagles get 2 for D-Line and Bears get 1 for LB Corps. So the Eagles have the edge again, but not by much. To me, that is very favorable to comp that close to a team that went 14-3 and went to the Super Bowl. Even if the Bears are a tier down from them due to the trenches, the entire 53-man roster is not that far off. The Bears are projected as a 7.5 win team, but I feel like the potential is there to get to 9 or 10 fairly easily.

Yeah that pat messes up the timing. He has to overthrow the ball to catch back up to the timing, which leads to inaccurate passes. He almost needs to practice with just one hand on the ball (like golfing with one arm). Then once that is comfortable, add the 2nd hand back in to just hold the ball more securely without the pat.

They need everyone in as soon as possible. Hopefully he doesn't become a distraction like Roquan. He was dropped to the 2nd team last year in the offseason and that generated a little drama. Hopefully none this year.

The Bears as a punching bag ramped back up after the Trubisky pick unfortunately. Not only was it laughed at then, we have been reminded of it constantly since that point. I just don't understand the hate of Fields. The Bears were not even in position to draft a QB in 2021. So to get Fields and after Wilson and Lance seems like a crazy good deal. The Giants got Neal and Toney out of the Fields trade. Toney is no longer on the team and Neal was terrible as a rookie. Do people even look at other players' stats? Lamar Jackson averages about 175 passing yards per game for his career, and has never topped 3127 yds (when he won MVP) in a season. Fields is not that far off other QBs that made huge leaps in their 3rd years. Fields comps pretty favorably to Hurts and Allen In their first two seasons: 20/21 Hurts 19 GS, 22-13 TD-INT, 5343 total yds, 13 Rushing TDs 21/22 Fields 25 GS, 24-21 TD-INT, 5677 total yds, 10 Rushing TDs 18/19 Allen 27 GS, 30-21 TD-INT, 6304 total yds, 17 Rushing TDs Yet Fields is the only QB they are worried about. Very odd. The overall team narrative is tired. However, until the Bears actually win, the media will continue to repeat the shallow storyline.

So it seems that the offseason moves have improved pretty much every facet of the team. If you look at it from a high level, on offense, the passing game should be improved, and at worst, the running game should be the same. The Bears added Moore, Wright, and Davis, as well as Foreman, Johnson, Scott, and Tonyan, and really only "lost" Montgomery since losing Mustipher is an upgrade in itself. If the offense is better and has some additional TOP, then the defense will be a little more rested and potentially get off the field a few more times. On defense, the run defense was historically bad. With the additions to the DLine and LB Corps, the run defense should be better. Edmunds and Edwards are tackling machines and rarely miss tackles. For pass defense, it should be the same, if not better with the addition of Stevenson and the ability of Edmunds. The pass rush is still an issue, but again, it is no worse than last year. Like I said above, if the offense is slightly better, then the defense should benefit from that as well. Now if we look into situational football, the the 1st Down offense is going to be better. Moore alone should do that, but also Foreman and Johnson as well. Then on 3rd Down, here is a crazy stat from Twitter: So the Bears targeted Pettis 21 times on 3rd and 4th Down and got 2 first downs from those targets. Moore, Tonyan, and Scott should improve that number drastically. Even if the Bears go from 2 of 21, to say 10 of 21, that is 8 additional first downs, just from targets to Pettis. On defense, with a much improved run defense, 1st Down defense should be better giving the other team some additional 3rd and longs. Without much of an upgraded pass rush, 3rd Down defense will probably be very similar to last year, but possibly a tick better if the other teams have longer downs to convert. So what do you think? It feels like the 8 to 9 win target seems completely reasonable based on this perspective.

I still find it funny that Monty says that after playing in college on a team that ended up .500 when he was there, and even though he played hard for the Bears, never really produced many explosive plays. Then he goes to a team that may have paid him more than the Bears offered, but then got immediately bumped down the depth chart after they drafted an RB in the first round.

My surprises as they will be better than expectations: Billings and Green for FAs, and Sewell and Scott for draft picks. The Bears DTs were bad last year. Billings is really going to help against the run (where the Bears were historically bad). Green has 3.5 sacks in a 5-game span last year for HOU. If he kept up that production for 17 games, he would easily be a double digit sack guy. I think Sewell is going to make more impact plays than anyone expects as a LB4. For some reason, I feel like Scott is going to end up as a super productive WR4. With all the attention on Moore, Claypool, Mooney, and Kmet, guys like Moore and Tonyan are going to get some easier matchups. I am expecting Walker to be good, I don't know if he is going to be a surprise, more of a relief for me. I expect Edmunds, Edwards, Walker, and Moore all to play at the same levels they have done before.

Each one of these can be there own thread. Clearly, some of these guys have something against the Bears and Fields. They also have not actually watched the games. If you look at the numbers, Fields has not shown he can be a consistent passer with timing routes and the quick passing game. Until he shows that, there will always be naysayers. No QB played more and threw for less yards than Fields. However, if you look at efficiency, Fields has improved. QBR is a good stat for that as it takes all the others into account. In 2021, Fields was dead last in the NFL at 31.4 (50.0 being league average). In 2022, he shot up to 54.0 (17th in the NFL). To put that into perspective, Burrow was 10th with 58.7 and Cousins was 23rd at 49.9. So any improvement from Fields will easily bump him into the top 10 this year. Hell, DJ Moore alone may do that for him.

Yeah, the Bears basically got their entire LB corps for the price of Roquan and their entire RB room for the price of Monty. Monty was so highly regarded that Detroit used the #12 pick on a RB. Good roster decisions by Poles.

In regards to Claypool, from listening to some podcasts, the Matt Canada offense literally has no concepts. Players don't play off each other, or make adjustments. Supposedly Getsy's does, so Claypool had a steep learning curve from "run your route" to "do this when they do that, but change it if this happens, etc, etc".

In reality, with Tonyan a typo on the Bears site, everything is pretty much in a box and every position group is really tight in regards to height and weight, especially the minimums.

That would make more sense. I was just using the official website: https://www.chicagobears.com/team/players-roster/robert-tonyan/ Probably 240.

It feels like Poles likes certain position groups at a specific height range and weight range. Will he make contract decisions based of those numbers? Is he picking players based on physical characteristics? Here is a look at the roster from a height/weight perspective: The odd players in the position groups for height are: QB - Walker under 6'2" (5'11") RB - Herbert under 5'10" (5'9") WR - all 5'10" or above TE - all 6'4" or above OL - all 6'2" or above DL - Billings under 6'3" (6'1") LB - all 6'0" or above DB - all 5'11" or above The odd players in the position groups for weight are: QB - all over 210 lbs RB - all over 200 lbs WR - Mooney under 180 lbs (173 lbs) TE - Tonyan under 240 lbs (200 lbs) OL - all over 300 lbs DL - Robinson under 260 lbs (253 lbs) LB - all over 220 lbs DB - all over 180 lbs Skinniest players on the team? Darnell Mooney - 5'11" 173 lbs, Josh Blackwell/Greg Stroman 5'11" 180 lbs Lightest players on the team? Darnell Mooney - 173 lbs, Josh Blackwell/Greg Stroman/Nsimba Webster 180 lbs Shortest players on the team? Cairo Santos - 5'8", Khalil Herbert - 5'9", Travis Homer - 5'10" Biggest/Thickest players on the team? Donovan Jeter - 6'3" 325 lbs, Larry Borom - 6'5" 333 lbs Heaviest players on the team? Darnell Wright - 335 lbs, Larry Borom - 333 lbs Tallest players on the team? Kellen Diesch - 6'7", Cole Kmet, Darnell Wright, Teven Jenkins, Gervon Dexter - 6'6" TE Room - no TE smaller than 6'4", Tonyan is 40 lbs lighter than the next TE and lighter than 3 WRs (Moore, Claypool, St. Brown) OL Room - Diesch is 6'7" 300 lbs compared to Borom at 6'5" 333 lbs, Wright weighs 335. WR Room - 2 WRs are taller than 6'1", St. Brown at 6'5" and Claypool at 6'4". Claypool and Jake Tonges are basically the same size. Claypool weighs more than every Bears RB (even Blasingame the FB lol) RB Room - Biggest RBs 6'0", Foreman is the heaviest at 235 lbs. DL Room - Billings is the shortest at 6'1", no other DL is less than 6'3". The two lightest DLs: Gipson 263 lbs and Robinson at 253 lbs LB Room - Very consistent group, Edmunds is 6'5" 250, Terrell Lewis is 6'5" 262 DB Room - Very consistent group The players that stood out the most from their position groups: 1. Tonyan, no player had a bigger height or weight disparity than Tonyan, 20% lighter than the average of the other TEs. 2. Walker, 3" smaller than the next QB 3. Billings, 2" smaller than the next DL 4. Mooney, 7 lbs lighter than the next WR, 16.5% lighter than the remaining projected rostered WRs average weight 5. Robinson, 10 lbs lighter than the next DL (Gipson), 7.7% lighter than the remaining Edge players average weight A lot of data, but it is clear that Poles is shaping each position group and outside of Tonyan, no player is more than 20% outside of their normal height and weight, which is actually quite impressive. Mooney actually scares me because he comes in as the skinniest player on the team. We will see if Poles has concerns about any of the players when contract extensions come up. Kmet and Johnson look like contract extension locks based on production and size. I wonder if Claypool will get some time at TE?

I listened to a Podcast about redrafting the Bears players if you were starting a new franchise with the obvious #1 choice being Fields. Then after that though, if you weigh previous performance and projected output, who would your next 5 players be? I am thinking it would be Moore, Edmunds, Jaylon Johnson, Wright, and maybe Brisker or Jackson. What do you think? Either way, I found it interesting that 3 out of the top 5 are new acquisitions, and if you go with Brisker, 4 out of 5 are from Poles. That really is pushing the depth chart down. Even guys off the list like Stevenson push Vildor to lead CB-backup role that he fits better in. Borom becomes a swing tackle, Mooney/Claypool back to WR2/3's, and Sanborn back to LB3. If you extend that to top 10, how many 2023 acquisitions are in there? Moore, Edmunds, Wright, Edwards, Davis, Walker? 6? How many teams add 6 players to the top 10 of their roster which doesn't include Dexter, Stevenson, or Pickens yet. That makes me feel a lot better about this coming season.

It is interesting to see the projections and how they decided on Dexter before Stevenson and Pickens. Hopefully playing Dexter strictly downhill without having to read and react will help his game. If Gordon makes a good leap this offseason, Stevenson with Johnson make a pretty formidable CB room.

It seems like GB is about to hit the NFL purgatory, not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough for a top 10 pick. They had 3 straight seasons with 13 wins where Rodgers won the league MVP twice before dropping to 8-9 with Rodgers. Now Love is supposed to come in at play at that level in his first full year as starter? After Watson, the top WRs and TEs are Doubs and Deguara? Double, bracket, or shade Watson and stop the run, the Packers will go nowhere. Their starting D-Line (3 players) combined for 5.5 sacks last year. Their 2 leading OLBs? 8.5 and 6.0. Not that scary. They didn't resign Amos (shocking), but he still may resign. If he doesn't, their secondary will be worse than last year. So an 8 win team with a unproven QB, lost a HoFer at QB and at least one quality starter on defense. It seems like 8 wins would be a huge success for the Packers. I figure 7 wins is probably the target. This feels like a year where all the teams will be within 2-3 wins of each other 10-7, 9-8, 8-9, 7-10, or something like that.

Congrats, I was hoping for ATL in ATL as I am in Alabama. So Nashville and Atlanta are close for me. No luck this year for me. I could even do Jacksonville.

Looking at it by opposing QB makes the schedule seem a little lighter: Week 1 - SUN, SEP 10.............. PACKERS.....................Jordan Love - W Week 2 - Sun, Sep 17............... at Tampa Bay.............Kyle Trask/Baker Mayfield - W Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24.............. at Kansas City ...........Patrick Mahomes - L Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1................ BRONCOS....................Russell Wilson - L Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5................. at Washington...........Sam Howell in Prime Time - W Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 .............VIKINGS .....................Kirk Cousins - W Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 ............. RAIDERS .....................Jimmy G - L Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 .............. at LA Chargers..........Justin Herbert in Prime Time - L Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 ................ at New Orleans..........Derek Carr - L Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 ............... PANTHERS..................Andy Dalton in Prime Time - W Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 .............. at Detroit ...................Jared Goff - L Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27.............. at Minnesota .............Kirk Cousins in Prime Time - W Week 13 - Bye Week Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 ............. LIONS..........................Jared Goff - W Week 15 - TBD............................ at Cleveland...............Deshaun Massageson - L Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24.............CARDINALS................Kyler Murray - W Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 ............. FALCONS.....................Desmond Ridder - W Week 18 - TBD............................ at Green Bay..............Jordan Love - L I count 9 wins and it could easily be 2-3 more from these games: (DEN, LVR, NO, DET, CLE, and GB).

Week 1 - SUN, SEP 10.............. PACKERS.....................3:25PM .... FOX Week 2 - Sun, Sep 17............... at Tampa Bay.............Noon ........ FOX Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24.............. at Kansas City ...........3:25pm .... FOX Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1................ BRONCOS....................NOON.......CBS Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5................. at Washington...........7:15pm.....PRIME Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 .............VIKINGS .....................NOON....... FOX Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 ............. RAIDERS .....................NOON....... FOX Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 .............. at LA Chargers..........7:20pm ....NBC Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 ................ at New Orleans..........NOON.......CBS Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 ............... PANTHERS..................7:15PM.....PRIME Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 .............. at Detroit ...................Noon ........ FOX Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27.............. at Minnesota .............7:15pm.....ESPN Week 13 - Bye Week Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 ............. LIONS..........................NOON....... FOX Week 15 - TBD............................ at Cleveland...............TBD...........TBD Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24.............CARDINALS................3:25PM .... FOX Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 ............. FALCONS.....................NOON.......CBS Week 18 - TBD............................ at Green Bay..............TBD...........TBD I like the late bye week and it comes after a MNF game which would've been a short week. Two TNF games though, which sucks. No more than back to back away games. After the bye looks very favorable. Honestly, outside of KC as the 2nd of two road games, the schedule seems pretty favorable. The only other challenging weeks will be going from home to LA to NO, then back to home on TNF. A quick look feels like 9 wins would be the target, splitting the division games, then getting 6 others (TB, WAS, CAR, CLE, ARZ, ATL), with other up for grab games (DEN (at home), LVR (at home), NO). LAC and KC being guaranteed losses plus losing 3 in the division for 5 losses. What do you think? No PHI, SF, CIN, or BUF, which feels like 4 of the top 5 teams in the league outside of KC.

I was thinking Herbert and Johnson would be the leading duo and Foreman is now more luxury than anything. I don't think the Bears were expecting to get Johnson when they signed Foreman and Homer. Homer is still a star special teamer, and 3rd Down back. So if anyone is the odd man out, it seems like it would be Foreman.

As much as we want Fields to break NFL passing records, I don't think he will ever get to that point. As a passer, I think his ceiling is more top 10 than top 5. As a runner, #1, so as a QB top 5 for sure, but that takes into account his legs.

My thought process is plugging Moore's career average stats in at the top, then bumping every else down, so his career averages 77-1105-6 would go on top and the guys at the bottom would drop off (ISM, Webster, Harry, Pringle). When you add a full year of Mooney (70-850-4), Claypool (65-800-5), and Kmet (55-575-5) back into those numbers, that is already 3330 yards and 20 TDs. Then you add WR4-6, TE2, and RB1-3 and you easily have 3800 yds and 26 TDs. This does not take into account any player being better than their career averages. So 3800 passing yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 800 rushing yards, 5 TDs seems like a very reasonable target. My guess is he will be plus or minus 10% of those value next year (so as low as 3400, 23 TDs and as high as 4200 yds and 30 TDs).

That is an interesting list. Surprised to see teams like Buffalo and Detroit so low, but I guess if you take out the #1 WR for every team, what does it look like? The Bears would have the same WR corps as last year.

Looks like he is still recovering from injury. This was the rookie minicamp and technically optional for him. So we will see.