adam

I like Jones as well. I think Payne ends back up in Washington anyway.

I will say that Fields may be the most athletic QB ever. Name a better one with his size and speed? He is just as fast as Lamar or Vick, but is a lot stronger. All he has to do is be an average passer and he would be in the mix for MVP and OPOY every year. There was an article about the routes that WRs ran with Fields his rookie year with Nagy vs Getsy. The biggest difference was Getsy ran barely any slants, digs, or curls, basically all the in cutting routes where the throws are between the hashes. This would automatically reduce the number of INTs because there is more chances of one with a bad throw. They need to open this back up this year.

Just for comparison, there are 10 QBs in their first two seasons to have less than 5000 passing yards, less than a 60% comp pct, and more than 20 INTs (20g min): Eli Manning, Christian Ponder, Vince Young, David Carr, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Justin Fields, Kyle Boller, Alex Smith, and Chris Weinke. If you project Fields for about 3000 passing yards in 2023 and 9 INTs, he would be the 7th in this group of QBs to pass for less than 7500 yds, 60% comp, 30 INTs in their first 3 seasons (30g min): Derek Anderson (49s), Quincy Carter (34s), Geno Smith (51s), Kyle Boller (47s), Vince Young (50s), Alex Smith (167s). There is only one QB that lasted 4 years, to have under 10K passing yards, less than 60% comp%, more than 40 INTs in at least 40 games: Alex Smith. Extending it up to 12K yards, that brings in Eli Manning, David Carr, Sam Darnold, and Joey Harrington. Fields really needs to improve quickly to get out of these groups as a passer as they are not favorable projections at this point in his career.

NFL.com has him ranked 13th for last season: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-ranking-all-68-starting-quarterbacks-from-the-2022-nfl-season That sounds about right to me. He improved, but still has more to go. If team improves around him AND he improves, the team is going to be a lot better.

Yeah, it is also in the best interest for both teams to get a deal done before free agency starts. That way you sort of know what you will be working with in the draft. If that is an unknown until draft day, I don't think they helps either team. I am also hoping for a huge overpay by the Colts. My only concern is the Colts are not much better than the Bears right now, so can they afford to give up any draft capital to put a rookie QB on that team?

So there has been a lot of media energy on this lately, so I thought it deserved its own thread. It seems that the idea comes from a couple of data points, first Poles said during the Senior Bowl that they assess every position, every year, including QB. So from the trade Fields side, this is an indication that Poles is not all-in on Fields. That's it. On the flip side, Poles knows he loses some leverage if it is known that he is moving off the pick regardless. Also, Poles could be just talking about the QB position as a whole which includes backup and 3rd/PS QB. This to me is a weak argument to believe the Bears are considering trading Fields. The next data point is with Fields being in his 3rd year, and a rookie would give Poles and Co. two extra years to build a SB contender before the rookie deal runs out. If that is the case, the Giants would not be extending Daniel Jones, the Bengals would look to be trading away Burrow, Chargers looking to deal Herbert, and Miami looking to trade TUA. If GB trades Rodgers, they have to get rid of Love too right, because he is entering his 4th year as well. I get that Fields has not advanced as much as some of these other QBs after two years, but guys like Allen didn't really hit their stride until Year 3. There is some validity to the argument about winning on the rookie deal, however, 7 of the last 10 SB winners did not have a QB on his rookie deal. The last 3 winners with a QB rookie deal was Mahomes in 2019, Philly in 2017 with Wentz, and Wilson in 2013 with SEA. All 3 situations had pre-built teams where you could've plugged any QB in there and they would've been really good. The other discussion is that if you trade Fields and get some draft capital, that those picks + a top rookie QB is better than keeping Fields and trading down with the #1 pick. I think this one is complete BS for several reasons. First, if some other team is going to give you a 1st round pick for Fields, then they have to believe he is better than the current rookie QBs (debunking the whole idea), and if Fields is not good enough on this roster, why would throwing a rookie QB into it be any better? Lastly, the other one I have seen is Poles is not tied to Fields, he didn't draft him, so if he has any doubt that Fields is/can be the guy, this is the best time to move on from him because who knows when the team will draft #1 again. I also think this one is weak. If Poles gets rid of Fields (say to ATL), and then Fields becomes a Pro Bowler, Poles will look worse than if he rolled with Fields and it didn't work out. Right now Fields buys Poles more time because if Fields doesn't work out, Poles should get the opportunity to draft his own QB. I think Fields will get 2023, and if he doesn't improve, they can safely move on from him next offseason, which also makes more sense as the roster building would be entering Year 3 for Poles. Thoughts?

I don't know how much impact playing at a specific university has to do with the outcome of a player in the NFL solely based on the helmet he wore in college. However, scheme and level of talent around them seem like bigger factors. There was a the thing about Ohio State WRs and this year had 2x 1000 yard rookies. The hardest thing for me is to determine how good a player is when the 10 others around him are also All-Stars. I still think about this play. Carter is strong, the LSU QB Daniels is 6'3", 200 lbs and Carter treated him like a Raggedy Ann doll lifting him up with one arm no less.

I thought Hurts had 3-4 plus plays, most were average, and 3-4 bad plays, which equates to a fairly average outing (individually). The O-Line, Brown, Smith, and Goedert all made some big plays. Brown's huge 1v2 catch could've easily been an Interception. I know he stepped on Kelce's foot, but man, that last hail mary looked like a Tebow pass. Hurts has to be a little bit more aware of his surroundings on a play with only 3 rushers.

This is exactly what I was thinking but the comp has to be higher because the Bears can always trade with the Texans, then trade with another team behind the Colts. So if they want to come up to #1 and leapfrog the Colts, they are going to have to pay for that plus something to prevent the Bears from trading with another team behind them.

Sure, but when you are that high of a draft pick and the team is undecided and may not even pick up your 5th year option is very concerning. They have the most info on him and if they are on the fence, taking him in lieu of a draft pick seems unwise. Not that he can't recover, but a lot of red flags for such a high draft pick.

He played a great game, but didn't blow me away. That fumble was literally a 10-pt swing. Philly had a 24-14 lead at half with KC getting 7 from that fumble. Without it, it's 24-7 at the worst. His growth does give us hope for Fields development.

Chase Young tore his ACL in 2021 and only played in 3 games in 2022. Huge red flag. You have no clue what you are getting there. Dotson is ok, but at 5'11" 180 is too similar to Mooney for my liking. To move down that far, I would be looking at Sweat and McLaurin. To move out of the top 10 would require a king's ransom. They have already talked about going with Howell, so we will see. To me, the realistic trading partners are HOU, IND, LVR, ATL, CAR, TEN, and NYJ.

Fields had 160 rushing attempts, but a ton were scrambles (I need to find those numbers). Hurts had 165 attempts (led all QBs), Allen had 124, Daniel Jones had 120, and Lamar had 112 in 12 games. Fields had 400 more yards than Hurts in 5 fewer attempts. That is insane. With a better O-Line, he probably scrambles 2 fewer times per game (if not more), so his attempts would be down 30 to 130ish, in line with Allen and Jones. Yeah, if we have competent receivers who are a threat that the defense has to honor, AND they need a spy on Fields, someone should be open on every play.

I agree, that O-Line was the true MVP, they should've shared the award. Mahomes did nothing special on his own. He had a couple of wide open runs, 2 TD passes to wide open receivers and one to arguably the best TE ever. With Brady retiring, he is now the anointed one.

The Chicago Bears are now on the clock..........

It was a fairly entertaining game until the ticky tack call that basically ended the game. It probably was the right call, but tough given the situation (not called earlier). However, the Eagles did that to themselves, their vaunted defense was terrible. Hurts fumbles against no contact and it ends up as a defensive TD. Crazy to think the Eagles offense outscored the Chiefs offense and lost. BTW, thanks for the 4th round pick for Quinn(#132). As much as Roseman gets a ton of credit for his roster construction, which he should, giving up a a 4th for less than 100 snaps of Quinn seems comical at this point. Mahomes won the MVP with 182 passing yards, 6.7 yds an attempt, with 2 of his 3 passing TDs to wide open receivers. I wonder if we will hear how Hurts is a RB this offseason with 3 rushing TDs and 70 rushing yards? After watching the game and the playoffs, I actually feel better about the Bears turnaround with Fields. There was maybe one wow throw the entire game, from Hurts to Goedert. The QBs combined for over 110 rushing yards, Fields would've had 300. I can't believe how much faster Fields is than even someone like Hurts. Getsy needs to get better at play design and play calls. The Chiefs always have someone open. The Bears rarely have someone open, that was clearly visible. We need more motion, that jet sweep counter was deadly and almost uncoverable because if you stop and they keep going the jet sweep is wide open. You ultimately have to bracket the player in motion on both sides of the field. Great game, I am glad it is over because the CHICAGO BEARS ARE NOW ON THE CLOCK!

A lot of irony, there was also the other Colts-Texans game that ended in a tie. If the Texans lost that one instead of a tie, they would've had the first pick. So all they had to do is finish tied with the Bears and they would've had the first pick. Wild. The Colts were slick losing that one. They actually lost their last 7 and 10 out of 11. The Colts somehow beat the Chiefs which has to be the biggest upset all season. The Texans actually played really good down the stretch. They won 2 of their last 3, lost to KC by 6 in OT and Dallas by 4. Dallas scored with 46 seconds left to win the game.

Yeah, I was pretty much going BPA after the trades.

The PFF Mock Draft Sim is pretty crazy on the trades. I tried just two trade downs, going from 1-4, then 4-8; picked up 35, 44, 79, and 161 in 2023, then a 1st and 2x 3rds in 2024 and tried my best to go BPA throughout, got only two B grade on all picks:

I don't know about that. 80 is a mid-3rd round pick. There may not be 20 elite guys are something like that, but there are more than 80 starters. The Bears currently have 4 picks in the first 102 and with one trade will add at least another. They have 3 picks in the first 64, and will likely have a 4th after a trade.

I am telling you, I may have to be admitted to the hospital if Poles pulls off 2 trades AND stays in the top 10. That would mean multiple 1sts in the future and possibly multiple 2nds this year.

I feel like the Texans are really going to have to overpay to move up one slot. Either way, with at least 2 QBs going in the top 3, the Bears would still get a blue chipper at #4. If Poles can trade down twice and acquire multiple future 1st rounders, he would undo what Pace did over the last 7 years (trading away 1st rounders).

There could be a bidding war going on between Texans and Colts. For 2 to 1, the Bears should get the Texans 2nd (#32) and mid-round pick in 2023 or 2024. (1 <>2+32+4th or 5th round pick) For 4 to 1, the Bears should get the Colts 2nd (#34), and potentially a 2024 1st (1 <>4+34+2024 1st) If not a 2024 1st, then it would have to be at least a 2024 2nd and a 2024 3rd (1 <>4+34+2024 2nd+2024 3rd) *Note - Indy does not have a 2023 3rd rounder

Team cuts and cap casualty projections are starting to pop up all over. The Free Agent market is going to look a lot different once teams starting making those cuts before the new league year on March 15th. We are now 5 weeks out. Compared to previous seasons, since the Bears basically control the market for at least the first few signings, I figure we will have 2-3 key signings in the first 24 hours, and will know who they will be on the 13th (first day of legal tampering period). Then the more accurate mock drafts can start.

You would think the right side was the one with expensive QB, not the left. Also, not related to this image but Philly has 2 DL and 2 OL that are +10 year team vets still anchoring the trenches. That is hard to do nowadays, half of your D-Line and 40% of your O-Line starters locked down for that long?