adam

Down to #2 probably won't but #3-5 would.

No I am using the same year (Year 4) for each player before they join their new team (assuming Payne leaves).

My scenario goes like this: 1. Trade down once but only down enough where you can still get someone like Anderson, Carter, or Johnson. That way you get the extra draft capital plus a blue chipper this year (you need one every year). 2. If you can trade down again, stay in the top 8 and can still get one of those guys, you do it. However, the goal is to not be drafting in the top 10 next year with your own pick, so you have to get the most impactful player you can while you are drafting so low. The ultimate scenario is 1 to 2, then 2 to 4. However, there seems like there are going to be several other teams (7-LVR, 8-ATL, 9-CAR) looking for a QB in the top 10. So the Bears could go 1 to 4 (IND), then 4 to 7 (LVR) if only 2 QBs are gone at 4, which is possible. If 3 QBs go in the top 3, the Bears have to keep 4 and pick Anderson. It seems like the top 5 is Young, Stroud, Levis, Anderson, and Carter (in any order). So if the Bears trade out of the top 5, into that 7-9 range, they would still get one of: Myles Murphy, ED, Clemson Tyree Wilson, ED, Texas Tech Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio St Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU So is Carter or Anderson better than Bresee or Murphy + an extra 2nd rounder? I don't know. It will come down to who the Bears believe is the best fit for their defense.

Whitehair is a nice veteran presence as this point and an upgrade would be minimal if you could only use the cap savings. I can see them doing that after 2023 though, when the cap savings is considerably higher and you can get an upgrade for the savings.

These are their stats from the season before going to a new team: 2019 - Buckner, 7.5 sacks, 9 TFL, 62 tackles, 14 QB Hits, 2 PD, 2 FF, 1 TD 2022 - Payne, 11.5 sacks, 18 TFL, 64 tackles, 20 QB Hits, 5 PD, 1 Sfty Payne was a monster this year, 4 more sacks, double the TFL and more QB hits.

I was actually thinking about the SFvPHI game the other way around since PHI is at home. The SF offense only scored 19 pts, at home, and 6 pts came from Dak INTs, which was literally the difference in the game. PHI and DAL defenses are very similar. Purdy had 214 yds passing and the leading rusher was Mitchell with 51 yds. Now they are going to Philly from SF. They are also playing in the early time slot and PHI got an extra day rest. So SF has to travel from SF to PHI while PHI stays at home. That is basically another day. So Philly has two days extra on SF going into this game, and SF has to travel to the east coast. They played 3 games in the Central or Eastern Time Zone this season, and went 1-2 in those games. Either way, both games will feel like Super Bowls because any 4 of them can win the Super Bowl. I would be shocked if Purdy wins this one. He would be the steal of the draft if he does and maybe of all-time, Mr. Irrelevant takes a team to a Super Bowl, and maybe wins it? No way, it ends here. As much as I marvel at Mahomes amazing and crazy throws, he seems to drop off more than others when not 100%. There is no way he is healed from a high ankle sprain. If he is healthy, KC wins, but with him hobbled, I will take CIN.

Who do you got this weekend? SF @ PHI? I am going PHI 27-24 in a close one. CIN @ KC? I am going CIN in an upset 24-23. It is going to be in the low 20s with a wind chill in the teens for the game. CIN has a better running game which I think will be the difference.

I think they are ok with Jones, Whitehair, and Jenkins for 2023 and will address C and RT with some depth at G.

Buckner got 4/84 ($21M AAV), so I assume Payne will come in around there. $21M for 4 or 5 years (so 84 or 105).

Unless something crazy happens, I think Anderson is going to be the Bears pick, especially if they pick in the top 3. After that, it will be a crapshoot. Big boards are already shifting and Paris Johnson is now ahead of Skoronski for OL on some of them.

His speed is somewhat concerning or lack thereof. He is very similar to N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Benjamin, and Laquon Treadwell in terms of size and speed. That is not a spectacular group.

There is a unwritten threshold for an RBs for when they hit the wall. Regardless of age, that is between 1500-2000 touches (rushes+receptions+returns). Montgomery is at 1070 for his career. He averages about 267 touches a year, so he would hit the bottom end of the threshold in 2 years. So if the Bears do sign him, there will be an out after 2 years. Barkley is at 1201 and would be hit the threshold after 1 year. That is somewhat concerning with his injury history. Some guys buck the trend, but it definitely happens within that window.

We really need a late round first or early 2nd, and we should be able to grab a top 5 WR before pick 40.

Maybe in Week 18, when no one was playing, but players don't slack off on the Bears offense because they can, come on now. The Bears were in a ton of games this year, and it wasn't because defenses were slacking off against them. Just read all the quotes from other team's defenders and coaches. The only guy they were concerned about was Fields, and he still gashed them. Does he need to improve as a passer, absolutely, but he only passed the ball 318 times. So it is hard to just look at raw numbers like totals because they don't tell the whole story. Look at other QBs that hard similar attempts: Fields threw for 2242 yards, 17 TDs, and 11 INTs with those 318 attempts Lamar Jackson had 326 attempts, and had the same amount of yards, 2242, 17 TDs, and 7 INTs Stafford had 303 attempts, 2087 yards, 10 TD, 8 INTs Mariota, 300 attempts, 2219 yards, 15 TD, 9 INTs Just as a passer, he is in line with other QBs with the same number of attempts throwing to Mooney, Pringle, Pettis, and ESB.

The average game score is 49.2 for these playoffs. The average for the regular season is 43.8. So scoring is up 5.4 pts.

They were all pretty good games. Prescott has looked like that a lot. He missed 16 games over the last 3 years, but had 2 great seasons in between those years. You never know who you are going to get. At times it looks like he forgets how to play.

I am doing it. These were the pass protection rankings for the teams that lost compared to what Fields was dealing with this year: JAX - 3rd DAL - 4th BUF - 7th NYG - 24th CHI - 32nd How about skill position players: WR/TE/RB: JAX - Kirk-Chark/ Engram/Etienne DAL - Lamb-Gallup/Schultz/Zeke-Pollard BUF - Diggs-Davis/Knox/Singletary NYG - Slayton-James/Bellinger/Barkley Herbert was the highest rated Bears offensive player but only had 6 games with more than 10 carries and only hit 20 carries once. Fields literally had no O-Line and Kmet and Herbert as the only above average offensive weapons. If you put Fields on any of those losing teams, he is significantly better. If you put those QBs on the Bears, and they are significantly worse. Can you imagine Daniel Jones on the Bears?

Pollard broke his fibula, 3 to 6 month recovery. He probably won't be 100% for 6-8 months. Can you risk signing him without knowing if he will be the same player after the injury? I don't think Poles can risk it.

I don't know if any of you guys watched the playoff games this weekend, but after watching them all, one thing was apparent. Fields is definitely an elite QB. I can't tell you how many plays he could've made that the losing QBs couldn't. He may not be at the level of Mahomes, Burrow, or Hurts yet, but I feel like he is better than the following guys: Lawrence 24-39, 217 yds, 5.6 YA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.4 Rating, 3-26 Rushing - literally played dink and dunk football, then throws game ending INT. I feel like he is going to be a guy that puts up stats, beats bad teams, then loses in the playoffs. Allen 25-42, 59.5%, 265 yds, 6.3 Y/A, 0 TD, 1 INT, 68.1 Rating, 8-26, 1 TD Rushing - I have really soured on him, once they took away Diggs, Allen didn't look good. He is a huge boom or bust guy. 3x 75 yard bombs for TDs, or multiple INTs. Now I still think he is a top 10 QB, but I think he is out of the top 5 for me now. Prescott 23-37, 62.2%, 206 yds, 5.6 Y/A, 1 TD, 2 INT, 63.6 Rating, 4-22 Rushing - He should be called Dak Grossman. I have never seen a guy have a 4x TD game followed by a multiple INT game where he looks completely lost. Dallas has no choice to keep him, but this is Dallas' ceiling with him at QB. Jones 15-27, 55.6%, 135 yds, 5.0 Y/A, 0 TD, 1 INT, 53.8 Rating, 6-24 Rushing - He had the game of his career against MIN, then everyone thought that was him after one game? Boy did he come back down to earth with one of the worst performances in Divisional Round playoff game in awhile. 135 passing yards is comical with over 25 passing attempts. He is a poor man's Josh Allen, only more conservative. They will never get past this point with him at QB. Now compare those numbers to what Fields did against the same Philly team Jones just played. Also consider the teams around those QBs: Fields 14-21, 66.7%, 152 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 119.5 Rating, 15-95 Rushing

Yeah, that is awesome, at least for filling out the bottom of the roster.

Payne just got named to the Pro Bowl in place of Donald. For some reason he seems like a perfect fit for the defense.

Hopefully NIL deals will slow down some of the guys leaving early. The biggest reason was money. Scholarships are great, but even those don't cover all expenses for students or athletes. It would a great question to know how many All Pro players from the last few years came out as Juniors or Seniors. I think elite guys will be elite regardless, but with the lower end guys the experience is what gets them over the top.

I would say every $15M in cap space is probably worth a 2nd rounder. This is basically what the Texans did with Osweiler. So the Bears are looking at $50M in cap savings with their trades, so 3 2nd rounders worth of cap space you can add to the trade value.

Brisker, Jones, Gordon, and Gill for sure. Robinson would make the 53-man on several teams and Velus was a top 10 KR guy. Then you also have to look at UDFA and Sanborn. I just like that Poles got rookie production out of his first 5 picks. You need to hit on at least 3 of those 5, and maybe 1 or 2 others to contribute. Poles hit on 4 of 5 with Jones being a big ST contributor.

This is a huge move for the organization. Warren actually has a clue and if he can generate additional revenue, the Bears will have more cash flow for bigger deals. One of hidden things about salaries is the signing bonuses and available cash flow to pay them out immediately. Some teams with low revenue just don't have the cash for things like that. This adds an entire new layer to football operations that never existed before.