adam

The more I research, the more I think the Bears will trade the #1 pick to a team to get a top WR. There is just no other path to get one. Here are the teams with top 20 receivers and top 20 picks in the first round: Pittman - IND (#4) - (#4+Pittman+2024 1st or multiple 2nds/3rds) Metcalf - SEA (#5 + #20) - (#5+#20+Metcalf+4th/5th in 2023 or 2024) Adams - LVR (#7) - (#7 + Adams + 2024 1st + 3rd) Moore - CAR (#9) - (#9 + Moore + 2024 1st + 2nd) McLaurin - WAS (#16) - (#16 + McLaurin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd) Evans/Godwin - TB (#19) - (#19 + Evans or Godwin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd + 2024 3rd) If Pittman was seen as a mid-first rounder (#20) in value, the Bears would still be owed at least another 1st rounder, or multiple 2nd's or 3rd's, depending on how they valued Pittman. The Seattle one is a pipe dream, but to get #5, #20 in this year's draft plus Metcalf and one later pick would be sweet. WR1 + Anderson/Carter/Skoronski/Bresee + Johnson/Addison/Smith-Njigba/Jones would be incredible.

Very true on Pierce. I still wouldn't mind Pittman as it gives Poles some flexibility.

Pretty cool WR ranking system by 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ You can do single year or multi year. All positions btw.

They just drafted Pierce (and probably was someone Poles could've drafted instead of Gordon), so I doubt they would move on from him so soon. However, Pittman (25) seems like a perfect candidate. He is on the last year of his rookie deal and average 95 receptions and 1000 yds per season over the last 2 years. That has been with some of the crappiest QB play as well. I would feel pretty good with Pittman, Claypool, Mooney, Rookie, Jones, and ESB.

The way I am reading it is any percentage over 100, the team that traded the picks to move up, gave up more than the pick they traded for. In this scenario, using the JJ table, the Rams gave up 17% more than even to trade up. In the RH table, it was 101%, so basically an even trade. So if that is the case, that trade should be the baseline for any Poles move. Get at least that much, if not more.

Yes, give me the Rich Hill chart all day long. The JJ chart was just a very simple even math comparison. The Rich Hill one is much more current and actually treats the Goff trade as even.

Here is an awesome list of the 1st round trades involving QBs since 2002. Crazy that Washington used so much to get RG3 and still drafted Cousins later in the draft. The #1 pick was involved only once, in the Goff trade. I assume that is the blueprint for Poles. It was a nice haul (#15, 43, 45, 76, next year 1st round pick, next year 3rd round pick). The 1st rounder was a bigger drop than I would want, but if it netted 2 additional 2nds, an additional 3rd AND a 1st and 3rd in 2024, I would not be too upset. Using the trade value chart (assuming the following year picks are 16th in the round): 2180 in current year value + 1200 in future year value vs #1 = 3000. So 3380 pts gained for 3000+88/3088 lost. Almost +300 which is the equivalent to a late 2nd rounder in premium. If you also account for the move from 2 to 1, Poles could have gained the equivalent draft capital of approximately 700pts (a late 1st rounder) as long as he can get a similar trade as the Titans did.

Our road is a little harder with DET improving. The crazy thought is GB might be the worst team in the division next year with or without Rodgers. Either he stays and plays like crap and they lose, or they are crippled with the dead cap if he retires forcing them to eat up to $40M in dead cap. They are already over with Rodgers at $31M, so they would have to cut another $15M off the roster just to sign their rookies.

I am seeing a lot of chatter about Indy. Some scenarios have Quenton Nelson being offered up as part of the package. That would be crazy to end up with Nelson and Anderson/Carter in the same offseason after signing Payne.

So don't pay an off ball LB $20M a year for the next 5 years?

5yr-$100M deal, $60 in guarantees. The Ravens had $52M, that is now almost cut in half for just Roquan and does not include Lamar Jackson..... Roquan becomes their 2nd highest paid player behind Ronnie Stanley.

I am not in that camp, if you read any of my posts, I was highlighting how good Kmet has been doing, not only as an active young TE, but also on the team with the worst passing offense in the league. If his production was in an average passing offense, he would have over 70 receptions, 750 yards, and 10 TDs, which would be a top 5 TE.

Not crazy volume, but Velus has been productive when given the chance of late. These are his stats from the BUF and MIN games: Rushing 1-42-1 Receiving 3-80-0 KR 8-195, 24.4 Avg 4 touches on offense, 122 yards, 1 TD, with 3 of those touches explosive plays. 8 KRs, almost 200 yds. Over 300 all-purpose yards in 2 games.

That would be the ultimate move, from 1 to 2, then 2 to 4. However, IND could also stay at #4 if they think ARZ is going to pass on a QB. Outside of DET, not many teams outside the top 5 will have the ammo to move to 1 or 2.

For the Claypool trade, here are a few receivers that may be available when the Bears would've picked in the 2nd: Claypool vs WRs projected between 30-45: Chase Claypool 66-1037, 13 TD; 6'4", 238 Jalin Hyatt, TEN, 67-1267, 15 TD; 6'0", 185 Kayshon Boutte, LSU, 48-538, 2 TD, 6'0", 205 Rashee Rice, SMU, 96-1355, 10 TD, 6'2", 203 Rice is the closest in height, but no one is close in weight and overall size. For production, Rice and Hyatt were both really productive this year. Hyatt is not much bigger than Mooney. Boutte disappeared in games. The question is Hyatt or Rice worth the #32 pick. If the answer is no, then the trade was actually the right move. If you believe one or both of them are worthy of #32, then it was a bad trade. To me, it is still up in the air as Claypool is a known commodity and none of these rookies are.

The Draft Network's last mock has the Bears trading with the Colts: Bears get: #4, #35, #105, 2024 1st, and 2024 2nd Colts get: #1 That would be a haul for the Bears. Assuming the Colts are still bad next year, that should be a top 10 pick and top 40 pick in 2024.

Here are a few, I like the ones with the easy to read tables. Most of these sites have mock drafts too: https://www.drafttek.com/2023-NFL-Draft-Big-Board/Top-NFL-Draft-Prospects-2023-Page-1.asp https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/big_board https://www.pff.com/draft https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2023-rankings/a31k4ake2cmnf8elanbwoag0 https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/ALL/1/2023 https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable https://thedraftnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-non-playoff-order/

The Bears were the only team with over 3000 rushing yards (team record) and even though a lot of that was Fields, the TEs and WRs had some great blocks. I don't know if anyone besides PFF but just from the eyeball test, he was definitely in the top half of the league as a blocker.

I would love Engram. Seems like a perfect compliment to Kmet. What about someone like Pollard? Saquon's injury history would scare me.

Kliff Kingsbury and GM fired in AZ. Another potential trading partner at #3. Panthers, Colts, Texans, and potentially the Cardinals all could be in the market for a rookie QB:

That dude has gotten a raw deal ever since the Bears fired him after going 10-6. He has been the scapegoat every time. The Bears need to bring him on as an Associate Head Coach or something like that.

The mock draft simulations are insane now.

Basic Trade Scenarios with teams most likely in need of a QB. Using the trade value chart, what would the Bears realistically get in a return for the #1 pick: 1. HOU, 1 for 2, 3000 - 2600 = 400 (2nd rounder). Moving up to #1 normally costs a little more than any other move. I could see the Bears getting a 2nd (#33) plus maybe a 3rd or 4th in 2024. 2. IND, 1 for 4, 3000 - 1800 = 1200 (1st rounder+). Since this would be a jump to #1 and leapfrogging a division opponent, it won't be cheap. I could see Indy giving up #4, #35, and a 2024 1st rounder at a minimum. 3. DET 1 for 6&18, 3000 - 1600 - 900 = 500 (2nd rounder+). Detroit has two first rounders, so that helps them a lot if they are interested. Trading with a division opponent is rare. It will take at least #6 + #18 + #47 + another 2023 pick + something in 2024. This would be a great package for the Bears, especially if 3 QBs went in the top 5. 4. LVR 1 for 7, 3000 - 1500 = 1500 (multiple 1st rounders). This jump may be out of the Bears range, but it would give them #7, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and another pick in 2023 at least. 5. ATL 1 for 8, 3000 - 1400 = 1600 (multiple 1st rounders+). Just like LVR, this is a huge jump and would cost #8, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and some additional picks (2nd and 3rd rounders) 6. CAR 1 for 9, 3000 - 1350 = 1650 (multiple 1st rounders+). This may be too big of a jump, but if CAR wants their guy, they would have to give up #9, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and some additional picks (2nd and 3rd rounders). It still feels like HOU or IND will be the best candidates. If HOU is happy with the 2nd QB, they will stay put. After the Rivers, Ryan, Foles fiasco of the last few years, I am sure management in IND is going to want to get their QB, which resets their time. If players are involved, IND and LVR have some potential trade candidates, if Poles wants to go that route. Obviously getting Davante from the Raiders would be insane and that trade would still net them multiple 1st's plus Adams. Don't be surprised if Poles trades down twice. There is such a huge gap between picks that he may want to take a few more swings in the top 50. Either way, it is hard to imagine anyone messing this up, unless he just keeps the pick and drafts a QB.

I still can't believe what I watched in the Texans game for the Bears to get the #1 pick. The Colts ended up 0-1-1 vs the Texans, even the tie was all that was needed for the Bears to get the 1st pick because if the Texans and Bears tied, the Bears would've picked #2 due to SoS.

OK, yesterday could not finish any better. The Bears got the 1st overall pick in the draft, both DET and GB miss the playoffs, and Erin Rodgers' last throw is an interception. Here is the playoff schedule for next weekend, KC and PHI have the byes: SEA@SF (I assume SF will use this as a partial bye week) - SF (felt like a blowout from the 1Q) NYG@MIN (Both teams have a negative pts differential - Loser Bowl?) - MIN DAL@TB (DAL lost to WAS this week and lost out on a home playoff game) - DAL MIA@BUF (will Tua play, split season series, both games decided by 3pts or less) - BUF BAL@CIN (rematch from Week 18, will Lamar play?) - CIN LAC@JAX (LAC lost to JAX 38-10 in Week 3) - JAX (JAX wins despite 4 INTs from TLaw)