adam

In terms of roster building, the Bears are definitely at least a year behind JAX. I could see them making similar moves this offseason. The difference will be Fields will be in the 2nd year of the same offense where TLaw was in his first. So technically, the Bears should look better than the Jags did this year. Not necessarily in terms of record, but in terms of performance and output.

You just can't use PFF on its own. It is better to use them to dispute something else or reinforce it. So if PFF, DVOA, and a traditional stat all say a guy is good, he is good. If those are mixed it is subjective, and if they are all bad, the player is usually bad. The AFC South is terrible, their entire division won 23 games, so JAX is going to have an easier path to the playoffs for quite some time. In comparison, the Bears now need to compete with MIN, DET, and a fading GB. Even if GB got easier, DET at least, got tougher.

That would be great, but I don't think they would move on from younger, cheaper players. HOU would probably offer up someone like Tunsil or Cooks (both with huge cap hits) and IND would be Buckner or Leonard. Pittman seems feasible since he is on the last year of his deal anyway.

Staley has been a terrible Head Coach. The media loves him for his thought provoking press conferences, use of analytics, etc. Supposedly the players "loved" him, now past tense, but week in and week out he would make bone headed decisions. Mike Williams gets hurt in a meaningless Week 18 game, then in this game, he punts from the Jacksonville 38 after 3 straight incompletions. He not only stopped the clock for JAX 3 times, but then gave them the ball back. After taking a 27-0, they went Punt, End of half, Punt, FG, FG Miss, Punt Earlier in the year, he called a timeout that cost his team at least a tie, and has a long list of coaching blunders going back to last year. I just can't believe a team with Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams, Everett, and Palmer on offense and a stacked defense with Mack, Bosa, James, and Samuel Jr could be this bad. Staley gives me a lot of Trestman vibes. BTW, the Chargers were 0-5 against playoff teams this season and 10-2 against non-playoff teams. So it really feels like the playoff teams come down to SoS more than actual team strength. Seattle was the same way. Seattle was 2-4 against playoff teams and the 2 wins, against LAC and NYG (2-5), the other playoff frauds. If the rest of the week holds serve, CIN, BUF, MIN, and DAL will win. Those teams all played better than their opponent's against playoff teams. It feels like WC weekend just weeds out the team's that played weaker schedules.

Going back to Fields WRs, it just shows how good he can be when he actually has good players to throw to. If you stuck Stroud or any other QB from the last few years into this situation, I don't know how much better they would have done. Burrows and Mahomes. Just think if Allen got Nagy his rookie year, then was throwing to Pettis and ESB behind the Bears O-Line in his second year. Would he take a massive leap?

One thing to note about Fields college career. He has 2 of the top 13 QBR seasons of all-time. Others within the top 13 are Mac Jones, Kyler Murray, Burrow, Tua x2, Russell Wilson, Luck, Mayfield x2, Bradford and Khalil Tate. 9 of 10 players made it to the NFL, several were Pro Bowl and All-Pro. Fields is in that group.

Stroud looks a lot like Fields did at Ohio State. In some ways it looks like Fields regressed since then. The one alarming fact for me is what Fields college WRs did this year in the NFL with crap QB play: Olave 72-1042, 4 TD (15 games) Wilson 83-1103, 4 YD If those WRs did that as rookies with terrible QB play, it would seem like they were making Fields look better than Fields was making them look. That is somewhat concerning for me when you are projecting players (who helped who). If you use QBR and EPA, Stoud and Young are almost identical. Then it comes down to the pieces around them and the opponents. Stroud almost beat UGA and AL conveniently didn't play them. However, Stroud played a much easier schedule overall. Stroud 87.7 QBR, 66.1 EPA Young 83.7 QBR, 65.8 EPA Fields 91.7 QBR, 52.8 EPA Lawrence 84.0 QBR, 55.8 EPA Will Levis scares me, QBR of 60.4 and EPA of 30.2. However, just looking at QB stats, how the hell did Josh Allen get drafted 7th overall after playing for Wyoming, having only 1x 300 yard game (against Gardner-Webb) and threw a total of 16 TDs to 6 INTs with 1812 yards his Junior year. 56.3% comp. What did he do to get on people's radars? Senior Bowl? Combine?

I would add Kaleb McGary to that as well to anchor the RT spot. Then maybe Pocic at C? Something like Brown, Whitehair, Pocic, Jenkins, McGary with Jones, Borom the swing tackles?

Yeah, the options are through the roof. My guess is this: Poles trades down once and if HIS guy is still on the board, he drafts him there. If not, I can see him moving down like your scenario and just stocking up on picks.

yep, pretty much every tie breaker had the Bears picking after the Texans, H2H, SoS, etc. I still find it fascinating that the Colts performance against the Texans in 2 games ultimately decided the fate of the Bears draft position, and now the Bears can negotiate with the Colts for the same draft capital.

The whole point of roster building is to win a championship. I don't know how this contract makes the Ravens do that. That is not what they needed, and definitely not for $20M a year. So what are they going to do with Queen? Are they going to pay two of their LBs a total of at least $35M per year? This move only makes sense if they are going to let Queen walk and put vet min's or UDFAs next to Roquan. Funny that they show some major defensive improvements since Roquan joined the team, masking the fact that the offenses they played went from top half of the league before Roquan to bottom half the league with Roquan. So the defensive improvements were normal and would've occurred without Roquan. Also, since Roquan, the Ravens were 5-4, without him 5-3. Obviously other players contribute to those records, but a ton of media posts have made it seem like Roquan was carrying them, yet he had more sacks 2.5 vs 2 and more INTs 2 vs 1 with the Bears than the Ravens (impact plays). Finally, he still has zero forced fumbles, which has always been a flaw in his game. To me, off ball LBs have become like RBs on offense. A lot of wear and tear, don't put a lot of money in them, fairly interchangeable, and very few are worth the money in big contracts. Draft late or find UDFAs.

The more I research, the more I think the Bears will trade the #1 pick to a team to get a top WR. There is just no other path to get one. Here are the teams with top 20 receivers and top 20 picks in the first round: Pittman - IND (#4) - (#4+Pittman+2024 1st or multiple 2nds/3rds) Metcalf - SEA (#5 + #20) - (#5+#20+Metcalf+4th/5th in 2023 or 2024) Adams - LVR (#7) - (#7 + Adams + 2024 1st + 3rd) Moore - CAR (#9) - (#9 + Moore + 2024 1st + 2nd) McLaurin - WAS (#16) - (#16 + McLaurin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd) Evans/Godwin - TB (#19) - (#19 + Evans or Godwin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd + 2024 3rd) If Pittman was seen as a mid-first rounder (#20) in value, the Bears would still be owed at least another 1st rounder, or multiple 2nd's or 3rd's, depending on how they valued Pittman. The Seattle one is a pipe dream, but to get #5, #20 in this year's draft plus Metcalf and one later pick would be sweet. WR1 + Anderson/Carter/Skoronski/Bresee + Johnson/Addison/Smith-Njigba/Jones would be incredible.

Very true on Pierce. I still wouldn't mind Pittman as it gives Poles some flexibility.

Pretty cool WR ranking system by 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ You can do single year or multi year. All positions btw.

They just drafted Pierce (and probably was someone Poles could've drafted instead of Gordon), so I doubt they would move on from him so soon. However, Pittman (25) seems like a perfect candidate. He is on the last year of his rookie deal and average 95 receptions and 1000 yds per season over the last 2 years. That has been with some of the crappiest QB play as well. I would feel pretty good with Pittman, Claypool, Mooney, Rookie, Jones, and ESB.

The way I am reading it is any percentage over 100, the team that traded the picks to move up, gave up more than the pick they traded for. In this scenario, using the JJ table, the Rams gave up 17% more than even to trade up. In the RH table, it was 101%, so basically an even trade. So if that is the case, that trade should be the baseline for any Poles move. Get at least that much, if not more.

Yes, give me the Rich Hill chart all day long. The JJ chart was just a very simple even math comparison. The Rich Hill one is much more current and actually treats the Goff trade as even.

Here is an awesome list of the 1st round trades involving QBs since 2002. Crazy that Washington used so much to get RG3 and still drafted Cousins later in the draft. The #1 pick was involved only once, in the Goff trade. I assume that is the blueprint for Poles. It was a nice haul (#15, 43, 45, 76, next year 1st round pick, next year 3rd round pick). The 1st rounder was a bigger drop than I would want, but if it netted 2 additional 2nds, an additional 3rd AND a 1st and 3rd in 2024, I would not be too upset. Using the trade value chart (assuming the following year picks are 16th in the round): 2180 in current year value + 1200 in future year value vs #1 = 3000. So 3380 pts gained for 3000+88/3088 lost. Almost +300 which is the equivalent to a late 2nd rounder in premium. If you also account for the move from 2 to 1, Poles could have gained the equivalent draft capital of approximately 700pts (a late 1st rounder) as long as he can get a similar trade as the Titans did.

Our road is a little harder with DET improving. The crazy thought is GB might be the worst team in the division next year with or without Rodgers. Either he stays and plays like crap and they lose, or they are crippled with the dead cap if he retires forcing them to eat up to $40M in dead cap. They are already over with Rodgers at $31M, so they would have to cut another $15M off the roster just to sign their rookies.

I am seeing a lot of chatter about Indy. Some scenarios have Quenton Nelson being offered up as part of the package. That would be crazy to end up with Nelson and Anderson/Carter in the same offseason after signing Payne.

So don't pay an off ball LB $20M a year for the next 5 years?

5yr-$100M deal, $60 in guarantees. The Ravens had $52M, that is now almost cut in half for just Roquan and does not include Lamar Jackson..... Roquan becomes their 2nd highest paid player behind Ronnie Stanley.

I am not in that camp, if you read any of my posts, I was highlighting how good Kmet has been doing, not only as an active young TE, but also on the team with the worst passing offense in the league. If his production was in an average passing offense, he would have over 70 receptions, 750 yards, and 10 TDs, which would be a top 5 TE.

Not crazy volume, but Velus has been productive when given the chance of late. These are his stats from the BUF and MIN games: Rushing 1-42-1 Receiving 3-80-0 KR 8-195, 24.4 Avg 4 touches on offense, 122 yards, 1 TD, with 3 of those touches explosive plays. 8 KRs, almost 200 yds. Over 300 all-purpose yards in 2 games.

That would be the ultimate move, from 1 to 2, then 2 to 4. However, IND could also stay at #4 if they think ARZ is going to pass on a QB. Outside of DET, not many teams outside the top 5 will have the ammo to move to 1 or 2.