adam

Which teams on the cusp of missing the playoffs would be the most unexpected to not make it? To me it has to be MIA, TEN, or TB. Just a few weeks ago, I would've thought TEN and MIA were locks. TEN has lost 5 straight and MIA has lost 4. TB has a one game lead but can still lose the division if CAR wins their last two (one against TB). I always thought SEA and NYJ would fade. I also expected NYG to drop but they have hung in there. JAX's rising is just as shocking as MIA's fall.

Tua won't play due another concussion, which makes for a crazy Week 17 game in NE. Titans playing Willis, Jets now going back to White, WAS considering Wentz, and CAR is basically winning without a QB or McCaffrey is pretty impressive.

SEA is currently #3 and #12. If the Bears can get the #1 pick, then have SEA jump HOU to #1 to draft a QB using #12 and a 2024 1st rounder. The Bears could get Anderson or Carter, and basically another top 10 non-QB player plus an extra 2024 1st rounder. That would be epic, all courtesy of Russell Wilson, let's ride! The could also take Carter or Anderson, then trade out of #12 to pick up an early/mid 2nd.

With Kyler Murray out for the year, and now Buddy Baker, ARZ is not winning another game. 1. HOU 2-12-1 JAX @IND (HOU already beat JAX and tied IND) 2. CHI 3-12 @DET MIN (both opponents playing for playoffs) 3. DEN 4-11 @KC LAC (both opponents playing for playoffs) 4. ARZ 4-11 @ATL @SF The odds of HOU winning one more game is about 50% at this time.

Good point on the # of players on the roster, people forget about that. The top 51 are counted against the cap. If you consider teams will just fill the bottom of their rosters with vet minimum guys and rookies, you have to add about $1M for each spot until 51. So KC has $28M in cap space, but needs to fill 18 spots from 33 to 51, giving them around $10-11M of actual cap space for usage before signing any of their rookies, which they normally need about $5M for. So KC has in reality about $5-6M to use for resigning players or free agency. The Bears are the same way, $124M in cap space with 33 signed, minus $18M = $106M - $5M = $101M for actual free agency and resigning their own players. That is still $31M more than the next team's full cap space. That puts 17 teams in the red to start this offseason (great for Bears), and 7 additional teams with under $20M. There are only 7 other teams with $10M - $52M in effective cap. The Bears basically have double the next highest team (ATL with $52M). 1. Bears - $101M with Justin Fields ---------------------------------- 2. Falcons - $52M with no QB 3. Patriots - $43M with Mac Jones - standard for them 4. Giants - $41M with Daniel Jones 5. Bengals - $33M with Joe Burrow - very solid 6. Seahawks - $30M with Geno Smith 7. Ravens - $31M with Lamar Jackson - very solid 8. Texans - $30M with Davis Mills on the flip side, in cap hell: 1. Saints - (-$71M) 2. Bucs - (-$60M) 3. Titans - (-30M)

For the yardage for sure, even though it is down all over this season. There were some bad INTs though.

I think I have lost every way imaginable. I have lost by a scoring correction, hail mary interception for opponent's defense, highest scoring week by opponent, changed lineup but didn't apply, benched players that scored enough points to win, garbage time points, bad weather kills passing game, dropped wrong player with same name due to COVID (Michael Carter, CB had COVID vs Michael Carter, RB who I dropped). I have seen it all lol.

So what about WRs? The top FA options are JuJu and Meyers. I was thinking with the Claypool connection, if that would bring JuJu in, or if they didn't get along, that it would detract him from coming to the Bears. In 2020, Juju had 97-831yds, 9 TDs and Claypool had 62-873, 9 TDs, that would be a very solid duo with Mooney.

Right now I would say Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, and Burrow are the top 4 dudes. So cool that we get to have them in the league for the next 10+ years. Mahomes/Allen/Burrow feels like a better Brady/Manning/Rivers. The next tier is probably Prescott, Jackson, Herbert, and Lawrence. Then you have guys like Geno, is he going to be a 1 year wonder? Tua seems to be more of a result of that offense than anything else. Goff? He feels like a poor man's Rivers. Daniel Jones? He is ok, but I didn't think he was ever better than Mitch. Then you have a huge group of aging vets or retreads: Rodgers, Brady, Carr, Mariota, Garoppolo, Dalton, Stafford, Tannehill, Wilson, Wentz, Ryan, Heinicke and Mayfield. That is a huge group. Lastly, you have some struggling younger guys in Jones, Mills, Wilson, Willis, and Pickett. To me, Fields is probably in that 2nd group. He has flashed, but the passing volume and consistency has to come for him to ascend any further. Fields needs his guy. Mahomes-Kelce, Allen-Diggs, Hurts-Brown/Smith, Burrow-Chase/Higgins, Prescott-Lamb, Lawrence-Kirk. Herbert and Jackson are the only elite QBs without a 1K receiver, though Jackson has Andrews and Herbert has Allen/Williams.

Mayfield was never (bad), he is just very inconsistent and makes one or two boneheaded plays a game that result in a loss. He threw 4 INTs against GB last year and they lost 24-22. I always felt like Mayfield is what Bears fans wanted Rex Grossman to be. However, Watson is actually worse in the same offense: 69.3 QB Rating, 57.7 Comp%, 175 yds/g, 5.7 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT in 4 games. Mayfield in the same offense last year: 83.1 QB Rating, 60.5%, 215 yds/g, 7.2 Y/A, 17 TD, 13 INT in 14 games.

QB play in general is down this year. This week, 8 QBs threw multiple INTs, 12 had under 200 yards passing, and 7 had a QB Rating under 60.0. 3 QBs did all 3, Wilson, Carr, and Willis. I still can't believe Wilson. I think he will retire earlier than expected. Carr has Adams, Waller, Renfrow, and the NFLs league leading rusher, Jacobs, and is still absolutely brutal at QB. I would not be surprised if they draft one (they are currently 9th).

In the Conference finals, it looks like it is going to be decided tonight on MNF to see who goes to the Championship game. Right now the projection for both teams is within .11 of each other. 2 - Nopper 138.14 vs 6 - Savage 138.03 (Projected) - Keenan Allen (16.95 Proj) Basically if Keenan Allen scores 17.07 or more, Savage is in the championship as the reigning champion. If he scores less than that, Nopper is in. Allen has scored more than 17 twice in the last 5 weeks, so 40% of the time. Jefferson hit that number last week, Lamb did the week before that, and Adams did in Week 10 against Indy. So WR1's hit the number 60% of the time in the last 5 weeks. So this is about as 50/50 as it gets. Good luck!

Check that, Wilson sacked again, now leads NFL with 49 and counting. Thanks Russ.

LOL this is funny, I was just going to point out that Wilson was second to Fields in sacks, then he gets sacked on back to back plays and now is tied with Fields with 48 sacks with a quarter and a half to go.

Tua with 3 picks today like he can't read defenses. If Waddle or Hill are not wide open, he can't complete a pass. Russell Wilson may seen the biggest drop off of an elite QB that I have seen in a long time. He has had 5 seasons that would be the Bears single season passing record, 4 over 4K, a 40 TD season, and has always been great limiting turnovers. Then he goes to Denver where he arguably has his best receiving corps and he has 11 TDs to 9 INTs into his 13th games of the year. The drop off is mind boggling. If I am in the Denver organization, or even a fan, I am sick to my stomach. His contract is unmovable for at least 2 more years and even in 2025, it is still a huge dead cap hit.

Velus compared to other notable rookie WRs this week for receiving yards: VJJ 52 yds > Wilson 30 yds Olave 0 yds Burks 0 yds Watson 49 yds Moore 5 yds

There is a chance that Poles picks someone up in the trade market again, maybe even at the deadline next season.

Wow Russell Wilson is terrible. He ends the half 6-13, 90 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks, QB Rating of 29.8 and Denver has 6 points. Is he tanking for Seattle? Like one last gift out the door? He can't be this bad. I can't see them winning another game this year.

Ika or Tuipulotu will both be gone before the Bears draft in the 2nd unless they trade back and get an earlier 2nd rounder.

I listed Pocic, just not as a big contract guy. Dillard has barely played (3.6% of the snaps), so are you willing to pay him big money? He looks like a huge question mark. Davenport has 0.5 sacks (14th on team) in 437 snaps. I would be very concerned with the lack of production to pay him big money. I thought the Edge FA market looked really weak, so I tried to avoid it.

Velus Jones Jr. led all receivers from either team with 52 receiving yards and all returners with 113 return yards. This was sort of the game I expected him for most of the season. 1 or 2 chunk plays and some nice returns.

Crazy scenario. Indy rests any remaining starters in Week 18 against HOU, so HOU has a better shot at winning giving CHI the first pick. They then trade with CHI to leapfrog HOU for a QB. If IND loses out, they would draft no worse than 5th.

In the NFC, only one division essentially up for grabs. PHI, MIN, SF are already in with DAL as the WC1. NFC South 1. TB 7-8 (CAR, ATL) wins out or wins 1 and CAR and NO lose 1 each. 2. CAR 6-9 (TB, @NO) needs to win out 3. NO 6-9 (@PHI, CAR) needs to win out and have TB lose 2 Week 17 TB vs CAR is basically for the Division title. If CAR wins, they have the tie breaker against TB and NO. NFC Wild Card 2. NYG 8-6-1 (IND, @PHI) - needs to win of 1 of 2 to get in. 3. WAS 7-7-1 (CLE, DAL) - needs to win out, or win 1 and have SEA, DET, and GB all lose one game each. --------------- 4. SEA 7-8 (NYJ, LAR) - needs to win out and have WAS to lose 1 of the last two games, or NYG to lose their last two. 5. DET 7-8 (CHI, @GB) - needs to win out and have SEA and WAS to lose 1 of the last two games. 6. GB 7-8 (MIN, DET) - needs to win out and have SEA and WAS to lose 1 of the last two games. DET @GB Week 18 may be for a WC spot if SEA and WAS lose one game each, DET beats CHI, and GB beats MIA and MIN. In the AFC, only one division up for grabs as well. KC, BUF, and CIN are already in with BAL as the WC1. AFC South 1. JAX 7-8 (@HOU, TEN) controls own destiny in the division, win the last two and they are in. 2. TEN 7-8 (DAL, @JAX) needs to win out and have JAX lose one to get in, or win one have have JAX lose last two. Regardless of the outcome of Week 17, Week 18 will decide the division. Win and they are in. AFC Wild Card 2. LAC 8-6 (@IND, LAR, @DEN) - needs to win 2 of 3 or 1 win and 1 loss from NE, NYJ, TEN, and PIT 3. MIA 8-7 (@NE, NYJ) - needs to win 2 or win one and NE, NYJ, TEN, and PIT all need to lose one. ----------------------------- 4. NE 7-8 (MIA, @BUF) - need to win last 2 and have LAC or MIA lose remaining games 5. NYJ 7-8 (@SEA, @MIA) - need to win last 2 and have 2 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2. 6. TEN 7-8 (DAL, @JAX) - need to win last 2 and have 3 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2, NYJ wins 1 of 2. 7. PIT 7-8 (@BAL, CLE) - need to win last 2 and have 4 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2, NYJ wins 1 of 2, TEN only wins 1 of 2.

btw, the with the Bears luck, they win their last two and pick 7th ? If CAR, with Foreman and Hubbard can do that to DET, Monty + Herbert + Fields might have a day.

Definitely more than 5, I am thinking 5 BIG contracts (long term deals), then 2-3 mids, and several vet mins. Probably 10-12 free agents in total.