adam

I think I have lost every way imaginable. I have lost by a scoring correction, hail mary interception for opponent's defense, highest scoring week by opponent, changed lineup but didn't apply, benched players that scored enough points to win, garbage time points, bad weather kills passing game, dropped wrong player with same name due to COVID (Michael Carter, CB had COVID vs Michael Carter, RB who I dropped). I have seen it all lol.

So what about WRs? The top FA options are JuJu and Meyers. I was thinking with the Claypool connection, if that would bring JuJu in, or if they didn't get along, that it would detract him from coming to the Bears. In 2020, Juju had 97-831yds, 9 TDs and Claypool had 62-873, 9 TDs, that would be a very solid duo with Mooney.

Right now I would say Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, and Burrow are the top 4 dudes. So cool that we get to have them in the league for the next 10+ years. Mahomes/Allen/Burrow feels like a better Brady/Manning/Rivers. The next tier is probably Prescott, Jackson, Herbert, and Lawrence. Then you have guys like Geno, is he going to be a 1 year wonder? Tua seems to be more of a result of that offense than anything else. Goff? He feels like a poor man's Rivers. Daniel Jones? He is ok, but I didn't think he was ever better than Mitch. Then you have a huge group of aging vets or retreads: Rodgers, Brady, Carr, Mariota, Garoppolo, Dalton, Stafford, Tannehill, Wilson, Wentz, Ryan, Heinicke and Mayfield. That is a huge group. Lastly, you have some struggling younger guys in Jones, Mills, Wilson, Willis, and Pickett. To me, Fields is probably in that 2nd group. He has flashed, but the passing volume and consistency has to come for him to ascend any further. Fields needs his guy. Mahomes-Kelce, Allen-Diggs, Hurts-Brown/Smith, Burrow-Chase/Higgins, Prescott-Lamb, Lawrence-Kirk. Herbert and Jackson are the only elite QBs without a 1K receiver, though Jackson has Andrews and Herbert has Allen/Williams.

Mayfield was never (bad), he is just very inconsistent and makes one or two boneheaded plays a game that result in a loss. He threw 4 INTs against GB last year and they lost 24-22. I always felt like Mayfield is what Bears fans wanted Rex Grossman to be. However, Watson is actually worse in the same offense: 69.3 QB Rating, 57.7 Comp%, 175 yds/g, 5.7 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT in 4 games. Mayfield in the same offense last year: 83.1 QB Rating, 60.5%, 215 yds/g, 7.2 Y/A, 17 TD, 13 INT in 14 games.

QB play in general is down this year. This week, 8 QBs threw multiple INTs, 12 had under 200 yards passing, and 7 had a QB Rating under 60.0. 3 QBs did all 3, Wilson, Carr, and Willis. I still can't believe Wilson. I think he will retire earlier than expected. Carr has Adams, Waller, Renfrow, and the NFLs league leading rusher, Jacobs, and is still absolutely brutal at QB. I would not be surprised if they draft one (they are currently 9th).

In the Conference finals, it looks like it is going to be decided tonight on MNF to see who goes to the Championship game. Right now the projection for both teams is within .11 of each other. 2 - Nopper 138.14 vs 6 - Savage 138.03 (Projected) - Keenan Allen (16.95 Proj) Basically if Keenan Allen scores 17.07 or more, Savage is in the championship as the reigning champion. If he scores less than that, Nopper is in. Allen has scored more than 17 twice in the last 5 weeks, so 40% of the time. Jefferson hit that number last week, Lamb did the week before that, and Adams did in Week 10 against Indy. So WR1's hit the number 60% of the time in the last 5 weeks. So this is about as 50/50 as it gets. Good luck!

Check that, Wilson sacked again, now leads NFL with 49 and counting. Thanks Russ.

LOL this is funny, I was just going to point out that Wilson was second to Fields in sacks, then he gets sacked on back to back plays and now is tied with Fields with 48 sacks with a quarter and a half to go.

Tua with 3 picks today like he can't read defenses. If Waddle or Hill are not wide open, he can't complete a pass. Russell Wilson may seen the biggest drop off of an elite QB that I have seen in a long time. He has had 5 seasons that would be the Bears single season passing record, 4 over 4K, a 40 TD season, and has always been great limiting turnovers. Then he goes to Denver where he arguably has his best receiving corps and he has 11 TDs to 9 INTs into his 13th games of the year. The drop off is mind boggling. If I am in the Denver organization, or even a fan, I am sick to my stomach. His contract is unmovable for at least 2 more years and even in 2025, it is still a huge dead cap hit.

Velus compared to other notable rookie WRs this week for receiving yards: VJJ 52 yds > Wilson 30 yds Olave 0 yds Burks 0 yds Watson 49 yds Moore 5 yds

There is a chance that Poles picks someone up in the trade market again, maybe even at the deadline next season.

Wow Russell Wilson is terrible. He ends the half 6-13, 90 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks, QB Rating of 29.8 and Denver has 6 points. Is he tanking for Seattle? Like one last gift out the door? He can't be this bad. I can't see them winning another game this year.

Ika or Tuipulotu will both be gone before the Bears draft in the 2nd unless they trade back and get an earlier 2nd rounder.

I listed Pocic, just not as a big contract guy. Dillard has barely played (3.6% of the snaps), so are you willing to pay him big money? He looks like a huge question mark. Davenport has 0.5 sacks (14th on team) in 437 snaps. I would be very concerned with the lack of production to pay him big money. I thought the Edge FA market looked really weak, so I tried to avoid it.

Velus Jones Jr. led all receivers from either team with 52 receiving yards and all returners with 113 return yards. This was sort of the game I expected him for most of the season. 1 or 2 chunk plays and some nice returns.

Crazy scenario. Indy rests any remaining starters in Week 18 against HOU, so HOU has a better shot at winning giving CHI the first pick. They then trade with CHI to leapfrog HOU for a QB. If IND loses out, they would draft no worse than 5th.

In the NFC, only one division essentially up for grabs. PHI, MIN, SF are already in with DAL as the WC1. NFC South 1. TB 7-8 (CAR, ATL) wins out or wins 1 and CAR and NO lose 1 each. 2. CAR 6-9 (TB, @NO) needs to win out 3. NO 6-9 (@PHI, CAR) needs to win out and have TB lose 2 Week 17 TB vs CAR is basically for the Division title. If CAR wins, they have the tie breaker against TB and NO. NFC Wild Card 2. NYG 8-6-1 (IND, @PHI) - needs to win of 1 of 2 to get in. 3. WAS 7-7-1 (CLE, DAL) - needs to win out, or win 1 and have SEA, DET, and GB all lose one game each. --------------- 4. SEA 7-8 (NYJ, LAR) - needs to win out and have WAS to lose 1 of the last two games, or NYG to lose their last two. 5. DET 7-8 (CHI, @GB) - needs to win out and have SEA and WAS to lose 1 of the last two games. 6. GB 7-8 (MIN, DET) - needs to win out and have SEA and WAS to lose 1 of the last two games. DET @GB Week 18 may be for a WC spot if SEA and WAS lose one game each, DET beats CHI, and GB beats MIA and MIN. In the AFC, only one division up for grabs as well. KC, BUF, and CIN are already in with BAL as the WC1. AFC South 1. JAX 7-8 (@HOU, TEN) controls own destiny in the division, win the last two and they are in. 2. TEN 7-8 (DAL, @JAX) needs to win out and have JAX lose one to get in, or win one have have JAX lose last two. Regardless of the outcome of Week 17, Week 18 will decide the division. Win and they are in. AFC Wild Card 2. LAC 8-6 (@IND, LAR, @DEN) - needs to win 2 of 3 or 1 win and 1 loss from NE, NYJ, TEN, and PIT 3. MIA 8-7 (@NE, NYJ) - needs to win 2 or win one and NE, NYJ, TEN, and PIT all need to lose one. ----------------------------- 4. NE 7-8 (MIA, @BUF) - need to win last 2 and have LAC or MIA lose remaining games 5. NYJ 7-8 (@SEA, @MIA) - need to win last 2 and have 2 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2. 6. TEN 7-8 (DAL, @JAX) - need to win last 2 and have 3 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2, NYJ wins 1 of 2. 7. PIT 7-8 (@BAL, CLE) - need to win last 2 and have 4 of the following happen: LAC loses out, MIA loses out, NE only wins 1 of 2, NYJ wins 1 of 2, TEN only wins 1 of 2.

btw, the with the Bears luck, they win their last two and pick 7th ? If CAR, with Foreman and Hubbard can do that to DET, Monty + Herbert + Fields might have a day.

Definitely more than 5, I am thinking 5 BIG contracts (long term deals), then 2-3 mids, and several vet mins. Probably 10-12 free agents in total.

With the Bears having the ability to essentially outbid everyone, who would be the top players you would like to see added in the offseason. For me, it would be Da'Ron Payne, DT, Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Jamel Dean, CB, with Mike Gesicki, TE as an Honorable Mention. That would add basically 4 top level players to the roster before Poles fills the rest in with some mid-level deals and vet mins before the draft. I figure other guys like Pocic (Center), an Edge and LB will also be in play. I could also see them signing two new DTs. However, I will go with these 4 today. Payne seems like the most obvious choice, I hope they get him. Brown is a huge need, and he has history with Poles in KC. Dean is a young CB who is not going to get paid by TB due to salary cap issues. He would pair with Johnson and Gordon, and Jackson and Brisker to form arguably the best secondary in the NFL in 2023. Gesicki is a player that this offense is missing, a true pass catching TE that can attack the seam. Kmet can do it, just not like Gesicki. This would help alleviate the lack of WR options in free agency. I would not mind seeing Claypool, Mooney, Gesicki, Kmet as the starting "receivers". That would be an upgrade over opening day 2022. Thoughts?

With the cap space, the Bears an easily extend a bunch of their own players AND bring in at least 5 top of their class FAs. With the current draft capital, and how picks have worked out, I am only going to count the first 3 picks as potential major contributors. Between FA and the draft, that is 8 true holes filled. I think they have 5 holes in the front 7 (assuming they resign Morrow), 3 on the OLine, and 1 at WR, so 9 holes to fill. So this truly can be a fast turn around. Another interesting take. Say the Bears load up this offseason to be at least a WC level team in 2023, with the real goal of SB in 2024 is that if for some reason Fields flames out and doesn't improve, they will more than likely be in a good position to draft a QB in 2024 and would have a very solid roster for that QB to come into. I don't think that will happen, but that is a better position to be in than being on such a bad team that you can't develop.

The Bears have only picked 1st overall twice, once in 1941 and again in 1947. Since that point they have actually only picked 2nd twice, once in 1951 and Trubisky. So since 1941, the Bears have picked 1st or 2nd only 4 times. It seems like IND, ATL, CAR, now LVR will all be in on a QB. SEA, who is currently drafting 3rd (DEN's pick) has to at least consider one (and they have two 1st rounders). A wild scenario would be HOU winning, Bears getting the #1 overall pick to trade it to SEA for #3 and #13 +Metcalf. The Bears then can take Carter or Anderson at #3 and another blue chipper at #13 and now have Metcalf as a WR1. Now another option would be to take Lockett off their hands, but more as a salary dump and take an extra pick with the deal. Thoughts on SEA? IND makes a lot of sense but any team moving up to #1 is going to pay a king's ransom to get there. Especially considering HOU would be #2 and definitely taking one with 2 1st rounders.

Every spot from 4 to 1 is "worth" 400 pts or the equivalent to pick #50 (mid-2nd rounder). So if the Bears somehow move up from 2 to 1, which is actually very possible considering HOU's final two opponents, they would basically give themselves an extra 2nd rounder in any trade scenario.

Yeah he was impressive and was one of the few shining stars. The D-Line and LBs are brutal. Outside of Sanborn, we really need 2x LBs, 2 DTs, and 2 DEs in the front 7 as new starters. I don't know if we will get there all this offseason, but it would be nice to get at least a stud DT, DE, and LB to add to the core.

HOU just beat TEN, and the Bears are now 1/2 game out of the #1 pick. HOU plays JAX and IND for their last two games. If HOU can win one more, they would be 3-13-1 and if the Bears lose out, they would be 3-14.