adam

You had a nice 6-1 run in the middle of the season.

If the tradeoff was: one of Carter or Anderson vs two of T'Vondre Sweat, Peter Skoronski, Jaelyn Duncan, or Isaiah Foskey To me, it is hard not to like two top options, especially if you can get one of each OL and DL/DE.

Roster Composition is an interesting thing. I don't think using the NFL-average is a good way to look at it because that includes some terribly constructed teams. I think it is best to model off some really good teams and see what they are doing. Take Philly. Here is their current roster breakdown: Drafted by Eagles: 29 By round: 7-1st, 5-2nd, 3-3rd, 5-4th, 1-5th, 6-6th, 2-7th Drafted by other teams: 18 UDFAs: 12 More than half the roster came from other teams, FA/trade, or UDFA. More than half the drafted roster was drafted in the first 3 rounds. Only 1 Philly draft pick in the top 9 (Lane Johnson #4). Other 6 first rounders between picks 10-22. 7 of the 18 players drafted by other teams were drafted in the first 2 rounds. 3 of their drafted vets have been with team for 10+ years (Cox, Graham, Kelce). Pace really made this challenging with so many 1st round trades. Basically Trubisky, then nothing (due to Mack) until Fields. Fields is now the only Bears drafted player from the 1st round. The Bears only have 22 players drafted by the Bears and 17 UDFAs. I feel like this team is still two years away from being where Philly is now, which would make sense as it would be Poles in Year 3.

The playoffs are upon us. Congrats to all the teams that made it to the 2nd season. The bracket is set, 1 and 2 are on byes, 4 plays 5, 3 plays 6. 1 - Fields of Dreams 4 - PapaBear --------------------- 5 - The Mad Lithuanians---------- 3 - Nips&Tips--------------------- 6 - SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS!--- 2 - Nopper In other news, I need to know how we want to address absent managers. We had a manager not update their lineup basically all season, including thru byes and IR, which gave some other teams some free wins and impacted the playoff positions. Since this is a pay league, I want to ensure everything is as fair as possible. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

It was more like a 5 minute span. 16 plays in 3 drives. It was a crazy spurt, but outside of those drives, he has been one of the worst QBs in the league. Before that game, he only had 1 game with 2 TDs, and 10 games with 1 or 0 TDs. He is 27th in QBR, only Mac Jones, Mills, Wentz, and Mayfield have been worse.

Yeah, I like that as well. You don't get first round grades or picks if you didn't have potential. I think Leatherwood and Harry will stick.

Wilson has been terrible. Any QB would be an upgrade.

CAR and JAX both won bumping them up to 5 wins, so that basically makes it a 5 team race for pick #2. DEN almost beat KC and still plays ARZ and LAR. ARZ plays NE tonight, then DEN. LAR still plays DEN and SEA (who lost to CAR). NO still plays ATL, CLE, and CAR. So all these teams have winnable games. The Bears have PHI, BUF, DET, and MIN, 3X 10 win teams and DET who has won 5 of 6. The Bears can play good and still lose all 4. 2. DEN 3-10 ARZ @LAR @KC LAC 3. CHI 3-10 PHI BUF @DET MIN ----------------------------------------------- 4. LAR 4-9 @GB DEN @LAC @SEA 5. NO 4-9 ATL @CLE @PHI CAR 6. ARZ 4-8 NE @DEN TB @ATL @SF I still think DEN wins one more somewhere. LAR with Mayfield may actually win a few. NO has played well and lost and should've beaten TB. ARZ is hard to gauge, but they should win at least one more. Regardless, the Bears seem locked in between picks 2 and 3.

We get to see one of the MVP favorites in Hurts, who looks a lot like Fields in terms of performance. Philly just put up 48, 35, and 40 against NYG, TEN, and GB, so this does not bode well for our defense. I figure they will try to slow them down and make them run while the Bears run 60% of the time. Depending on player health, I figure this will be a closer game than expected, but the Bears still lose by 10. I am figuring 30-20 right now.

Can't it be both? Jones was a 5th round pick that might be a starting LT while Sanborn is a UDFA who may be a starting ILB. Any time you can lock down a starter role with a 5th and beyond is nice. I would say he hit with Brisker, Jones, Sanborn and Gill but right now it seems like he whiffed on Gordon and Jones pretty hard. There were so many other starting options at both of those picks. I really don't know what he was thinking. I think he got a little too cute. He even drafted Gordon above Brisker.

That is possible, but play calling still leaves things to be desired. I still see very little if any quick slants and easy passes.

I posted winnable games. I doubt Denver beats KC.

I like to take the starting 22 and rank them backwards to figure out the worse position groups. On defense, for me, it is DL and CB. The worst starter for me is Vildor-CB, then Pennel-DT, Gordon=CB, Muhammad-DE, Adams=LB(in 4-3), then probably Robinson-DE. Jones is probably next, then Morrow, Jackson, Sanborn, Johnson, then Brisker. On offense, Mustipher is the worst, then Borom (if starting at RT), then WR3 (pick one), then there is probably a big blob between Whitehair, Kmet, Mooney (as WR1), Montgomery, then Claypool (WR2) and Jones, Jenkins and Fields. Pulling the bottom of both groups, I would rank the worst: Vildor, Pennel, Mustipher, Borom, WR3, Gordon, Muhammad, then Adams. So the biggest upgrades are at 2x CB, DT, C, RT, WR, DE, and LB. I really hope they do more at WR. All the top teams have a top flight WR (BUF-Diggs, PHI-Brown, DAL-Lamb, MIN-Jefferson, CIN-Chase, MIA-Hill). Of the top 10 WRs in the league, only 2 are on losing teams (Adams and Olave). Payne seems like the biggest no brainer. I hope they sign him. The front 7 needs at least 3-4 new starters. If Getsy is back, I really think they keep Patrick at OC. If that is the case, do they even sign anyone to the OLine? I guess it would only be RT if Leatherwood does not pan out. I only like to consider the top 3 rounds as starters, so they need to sign 4-5 top FAs to fill all the biggest needs.

That was such a terrible break and he telegraphed it. If anything, that should've been a stop and go route. Then with the ball in the air, he didn't even come back to the ball, which is what you are taught to do. You never wait for the ball.

There are 7 WRs in the 1st/2nd rounds have produced similarly to Claypool his rookie year. 1st Round: London 47-533-4 Wilson 57-790-4 Olave 60-887-3 Burks 25-359-1 (8 games) 2nd Round: Watson 25-401-7 (10 games) Pickens 37-512-2 Pierce 32-510-2 Claypool had 62-873-9 his rookie year. Would you want Claypool with only 1 year left on his rookie deal (2023) or a rookie that produces similarly to the above group for 4 more years?

There is no way we are beating BUF or PHI. DET has a stacked offense and we have a terrible defense. MIN is probably the only winnable game if they rest starters.

I also can't believe the media is still saying they would pick Lawrence over Fields. Supposedly the Jaguars have a much better roster, yet they only have one more win than the Bears. It is also crazy to think that Fields has 8 rushing TDs (8th) and is 7th in the NFL in rushing yards and he missed a game. Once you take those stats into account, Fields ends up as the best QB. 2nd Year QBs: Fields 21 TDs, 11 TOs, 7.5 Y/A Passing, 7.1 Y/A Rushing Lawrence 20 TDs, 12 TOs, 6/8 Y/A, 4.9 Y/A Mills 12 TDs, 12 TOs, 6.5 Y/A, 2.2 Y/A Jones 8 TDs, 8 TOs, 7.3 Y/A, 2.9 Y/A Wilson 5 TDs, 6 TOs, 6.8 Y/A, 3.9 Y/A Lance 0 TDs, 1 TO, 6.3 Y/A. 4/2 Y/A

If you consider the Claypool trade a minor loss, this is definitely a win. Quinn has never played good following a great season, and this is another one of those down years. A 4th rounder for him looks huge now.

I find it funny that Hurts is getting MVP consideration when Fields is basically outplaying him with a fraction of the supporting cast. Can you imagine Fields playing for Buffalo or Philly? They would be undefeated.

The Bears had a nice mini-bye and 1st game back, so let's see how they do after their real bye. Herbert may be back, Brisker and Gordon should be. The O-Line may be more solidified with Leatherwood at RT. This will be the first time to really put some plays in for Claypool as the WR1. The two games out of the bye will be good tests for the Bears, and we will get to see Hurts and Allen at Soldier Field. BUF is #1 in DVOA and PHI is #3. DAL is #2, so these games will probably end up like the DAL game. I don't care if they lose at this point, but it would be nice to have competitive games with at least a chance to win late. It would be really cool if Fields breaks Jackson's rushing record, he needs 302 in 4 games (76 yds a game) to break the record. The Bears also need 838 yds to break the Ravens single season record of 3296 rushing yards for a team. Both are still in play with how much they are running this year. After the Rams win, the Bears will be watching the following games, hoping for some upsets: JAX (4-8) at TEN CAR (4-8) at SEA NE at ARZ (4-8) on MNF

Jackson always seems to get injured when he is playing good, and he then looks like he plays scared after returning from injury, which is a scary thought.

I understand Poles thought process with the Claypool trade, but the value of the 33rd or 34th pick seems like it was an extreme overpay for someone like him at this point. He seems like a fringe WR2 or WR3 at best. With all the needs on the team, it just feels like that pick would've been better to keep and use on a different position group. At that pick, you are getting a starting CB, DL, Edge, LB, or OL. Even after the Gordon pick, CB is a huge need as anytime Vildor is on the field, the other team scores. The DL has been terrible and the Bears haven't had a sack in a month. So we will have to see how this pick looks next year, but right now it seems like a reach by Poles.

That is a not a route he should be running. His frame is not built for quick direction changes. I assume he was moved into that route because of the Mooney injury. Either way, he is definitely not a sure handed receiver and is not someone you want in your top 3/4 WRs.

That was impressive. For all those saying it takes weeks to learn a new playbook, scheme, etc. Mayfield basically debunked that as well. That win was huge for the Bears. Of the teams with at least 8 losses, there are 4 games with 2 of those teams, so there is a high degree of probability that JAX, ARZ, and NO or CAR will have 5 wins. That locks the Bears into a top 5 pick, then the winner of DEN vs LAR locks the Bears into a top 4 pick between the loser of CAR/NO and the loser of DEN/LAR. That is also assuming the Bears win one more game. 1. HOU 1-10-1 @DAL KC @TEN JAX @IND (1-15-1 to 2-14-1) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. CHI 3-10 BYE PHI BUF @DET MIN (3-14) 3. DEN 3-9 KC ARI @LAR @KC LAC (3-14 to 5-12) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. LAR 4-9 @GB DEN @LAC @SEA (4-13 to 5-12) 5. NO 4-9 BYE ATL @CLE @PHI CAR (4-13 to 5-12) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. CAR 4-8 @SEA PIT DET @TB @NO (4-13 to 5-12) 7. JAX 4-8 @TEN DAL @NYJ @HOU TEN (5-12) 8. ARZ 4-8 NE @DEN TB @ATL @SF (4-13 to 5-12) NO plays CAR DEN plays LAR DEN plays ARZ JAX plays HOU These are basically the most likely scenarios to play out (from best outcome to worst): Scenario 1 - Bears lose out, DEN beats LAR, Bears pick 2nd Scenario 2 - Bears lose out, DEN loses out, Bears pick 3rd Scenario 3 - Bears win 1 game, DEN beats LAR and ARZ, Bears pick 3rd (CAR/NO to 2nd) Scenario 4 - Bears win 1 game, DEN only wins 1 game, Bears pick 4th (DEN to 2nd, CAR/NO to 3rd) Scenario 5 - Bears win 2 games, pick between 8 and 12. Scenarios 1, 2, or 4 seem the most likely, with 1 and 2 both at about 45%, and 4 at about 10%. No more wins = 2nd or 3rd pick guaranteed 1 more win = 3rd or 4th pick 2 more wins = 8th to 12th pick

and the Bears had the lead in 3 other games that they lost by more than one possession: 7-3 vs GB 10-7 vs NYJ 19-10 vs GB Dallas was the only game the Bears never led in and lost by more than one possession.