adam

I posted winnable games. I doubt Denver beats KC.

I like to take the starting 22 and rank them backwards to figure out the worse position groups. On defense, for me, it is DL and CB. The worst starter for me is Vildor-CB, then Pennel-DT, Gordon=CB, Muhammad-DE, Adams=LB(in 4-3), then probably Robinson-DE. Jones is probably next, then Morrow, Jackson, Sanborn, Johnson, then Brisker. On offense, Mustipher is the worst, then Borom (if starting at RT), then WR3 (pick one), then there is probably a big blob between Whitehair, Kmet, Mooney (as WR1), Montgomery, then Claypool (WR2) and Jones, Jenkins and Fields. Pulling the bottom of both groups, I would rank the worst: Vildor, Pennel, Mustipher, Borom, WR3, Gordon, Muhammad, then Adams. So the biggest upgrades are at 2x CB, DT, C, RT, WR, DE, and LB. I really hope they do more at WR. All the top teams have a top flight WR (BUF-Diggs, PHI-Brown, DAL-Lamb, MIN-Jefferson, CIN-Chase, MIA-Hill). Of the top 10 WRs in the league, only 2 are on losing teams (Adams and Olave). Payne seems like the biggest no brainer. I hope they sign him. The front 7 needs at least 3-4 new starters. If Getsy is back, I really think they keep Patrick at OC. If that is the case, do they even sign anyone to the OLine? I guess it would only be RT if Leatherwood does not pan out. I only like to consider the top 3 rounds as starters, so they need to sign 4-5 top FAs to fill all the biggest needs.

That was such a terrible break and he telegraphed it. If anything, that should've been a stop and go route. Then with the ball in the air, he didn't even come back to the ball, which is what you are taught to do. You never wait for the ball.

There are 7 WRs in the 1st/2nd rounds have produced similarly to Claypool his rookie year. 1st Round: London 47-533-4 Wilson 57-790-4 Olave 60-887-3 Burks 25-359-1 (8 games) 2nd Round: Watson 25-401-7 (10 games) Pickens 37-512-2 Pierce 32-510-2 Claypool had 62-873-9 his rookie year. Would you want Claypool with only 1 year left on his rookie deal (2023) or a rookie that produces similarly to the above group for 4 more years?

There is no way we are beating BUF or PHI. DET has a stacked offense and we have a terrible defense. MIN is probably the only winnable game if they rest starters.

I also can't believe the media is still saying they would pick Lawrence over Fields. Supposedly the Jaguars have a much better roster, yet they only have one more win than the Bears. It is also crazy to think that Fields has 8 rushing TDs (8th) and is 7th in the NFL in rushing yards and he missed a game. Once you take those stats into account, Fields ends up as the best QB. 2nd Year QBs: Fields 21 TDs, 11 TOs, 7.5 Y/A Passing, 7.1 Y/A Rushing Lawrence 20 TDs, 12 TOs, 6/8 Y/A, 4.9 Y/A Mills 12 TDs, 12 TOs, 6.5 Y/A, 2.2 Y/A Jones 8 TDs, 8 TOs, 7.3 Y/A, 2.9 Y/A Wilson 5 TDs, 6 TOs, 6.8 Y/A, 3.9 Y/A Lance 0 TDs, 1 TO, 6.3 Y/A. 4/2 Y/A

If you consider the Claypool trade a minor loss, this is definitely a win. Quinn has never played good following a great season, and this is another one of those down years. A 4th rounder for him looks huge now.

I find it funny that Hurts is getting MVP consideration when Fields is basically outplaying him with a fraction of the supporting cast. Can you imagine Fields playing for Buffalo or Philly? They would be undefeated.

The Bears had a nice mini-bye and 1st game back, so let's see how they do after their real bye. Herbert may be back, Brisker and Gordon should be. The O-Line may be more solidified with Leatherwood at RT. This will be the first time to really put some plays in for Claypool as the WR1. The two games out of the bye will be good tests for the Bears, and we will get to see Hurts and Allen at Soldier Field. BUF is #1 in DVOA and PHI is #3. DAL is #2, so these games will probably end up like the DAL game. I don't care if they lose at this point, but it would be nice to have competitive games with at least a chance to win late. It would be really cool if Fields breaks Jackson's rushing record, he needs 302 in 4 games (76 yds a game) to break the record. The Bears also need 838 yds to break the Ravens single season record of 3296 rushing yards for a team. Both are still in play with how much they are running this year. After the Rams win, the Bears will be watching the following games, hoping for some upsets: JAX (4-8) at TEN CAR (4-8) at SEA NE at ARZ (4-8) on MNF

Jackson always seems to get injured when he is playing good, and he then looks like he plays scared after returning from injury, which is a scary thought.

I understand Poles thought process with the Claypool trade, but the value of the 33rd or 34th pick seems like it was an extreme overpay for someone like him at this point. He seems like a fringe WR2 or WR3 at best. With all the needs on the team, it just feels like that pick would've been better to keep and use on a different position group. At that pick, you are getting a starting CB, DL, Edge, LB, or OL. Even after the Gordon pick, CB is a huge need as anytime Vildor is on the field, the other team scores. The DL has been terrible and the Bears haven't had a sack in a month. So we will have to see how this pick looks next year, but right now it seems like a reach by Poles.

That is a not a route he should be running. His frame is not built for quick direction changes. I assume he was moved into that route because of the Mooney injury. Either way, he is definitely not a sure handed receiver and is not someone you want in your top 3/4 WRs.

That was impressive. For all those saying it takes weeks to learn a new playbook, scheme, etc. Mayfield basically debunked that as well. That win was huge for the Bears. Of the teams with at least 8 losses, there are 4 games with 2 of those teams, so there is a high degree of probability that JAX, ARZ, and NO or CAR will have 5 wins. That locks the Bears into a top 5 pick, then the winner of DEN vs LAR locks the Bears into a top 4 pick between the loser of CAR/NO and the loser of DEN/LAR. That is also assuming the Bears win one more game. 1. HOU 1-10-1 @DAL KC @TEN JAX @IND (1-15-1 to 2-14-1) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. CHI 3-10 BYE PHI BUF @DET MIN (3-14) 3. DEN 3-9 KC ARI @LAR @KC LAC (3-14 to 5-12) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. LAR 4-9 @GB DEN @LAC @SEA (4-13 to 5-12) 5. NO 4-9 BYE ATL @CLE @PHI CAR (4-13 to 5-12) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. CAR 4-8 @SEA PIT DET @TB @NO (4-13 to 5-12) 7. JAX 4-8 @TEN DAL @NYJ @HOU TEN (5-12) 8. ARZ 4-8 NE @DEN TB @ATL @SF (4-13 to 5-12) NO plays CAR DEN plays LAR DEN plays ARZ JAX plays HOU These are basically the most likely scenarios to play out (from best outcome to worst): Scenario 1 - Bears lose out, DEN beats LAR, Bears pick 2nd Scenario 2 - Bears lose out, DEN loses out, Bears pick 3rd Scenario 3 - Bears win 1 game, DEN beats LAR and ARZ, Bears pick 3rd (CAR/NO to 2nd) Scenario 4 - Bears win 1 game, DEN only wins 1 game, Bears pick 4th (DEN to 2nd, CAR/NO to 3rd) Scenario 5 - Bears win 2 games, pick between 8 and 12. Scenarios 1, 2, or 4 seem the most likely, with 1 and 2 both at about 45%, and 4 at about 10%. No more wins = 2nd or 3rd pick guaranteed 1 more win = 3rd or 4th pick 2 more wins = 8th to 12th pick

and the Bears had the lead in 3 other games that they lost by more than one possession: 7-3 vs GB 10-7 vs NYJ 19-10 vs GB Dallas was the only game the Bears never led in and lost by more than one possession.

Fields is a gazelle. His DVOA keeps climbing, now at -27.3 (31st in the NFL), but improving. For QBR, Fields is 12th at 58.6 and had the best QBR of the week at 90.5. He now has the best QBR game of the season (95.9 against MIA) and the 15th best (against GB). Neither Hurts or Allen have a game in the top 15.

Locked in at #2. Rams almost pulled one out over Seattle. Denver lost 10-9, wow Russell Wilson is bad. This is what is looks like now: 1. HOU 1-10-1 @DAL KC @TEN JAX @IND (1-15-1 to 3-13-1) 2. CHI 3-10 BYE PHI BUF @DET MIN (3-14) 3. DEN 3-9 KC ARI @LAR @KC LAC (3-14 to 4-13) 4. LAR 3-9 LVR @GB DEN @LAC @SEA (3-14 to 4-13) CAR, NO, JAX, and ARZ all 4-8. so the worst pick the Bears can get is #8.

We definitely need a new OLine and some receivers. I would still like to see more from Claypool. Still in line for pick #2.

Crazy to think that the WR Corps could look like: Claypool, Pringle, Harry, and Jones. None of them played or were on the opening day roster. I think I have seen enough of St. Brown.

I am shocked the line is only GB -1.5. They must be assuming Fields will play. We don't even know if Rodgers or Love will start. It will be interesting to see the injury report for both teams on Wednesday. I assume Fields is going to be another game time decision, but GB may know more about Rodgers my mid-week. So for right now, if Fields starts, I am going Bears 23-20 and if Siemian starts, Packers 27-17.

I expect Mooney to be out the rest of the season, and Jackson to miss at least next week against GB. I would even consider shelfing some of the other vets that we know won't be on the roster next year to bring up some PS guys to evaluate.

That is cool and goes to show you how expendable Roquan was. Not that he wasn't good, but $18M for that type of LB is an overpay.

I think part of Fields problem is the O-Line and the WRs, and potentially the scheme. Hurts has all day to throw and is throwing to 3 top 20 receiving options, so making reads and going through progressions is much easier under those conditions. What is wild is even given those differences, Fields still outperformed Hurts over the last 6 games, and the only difference being the game outcome due to the quality of the rosters. I agree that Fields has long way to go as a passer, but that would be signifcantly accelerated with a better supporting cast.

So last night Hurts had 153 passing yards and 157 rushing yards, with 2 passing TDs, and the national media is now saying he is in the running with Mahomes for MVP. What is wild to me is using Fields last 6 games, Fields is averaging over 160 passing yards a game, 1.7 passing TDs, 107 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD. In Hurts last 6 games, he is averaging 200 passing yards and 55 rushing yards a game and 2.5 total TDs. So 255 total yards and 2.5 total TDs to Fields 267 total yards and 2.7 total TDs. So Fields is playing better than an MVP candidate over the last 6 weeks. Oh by the way, Philly has a top 5 Offensive Line and AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert as their top 3 receivers. You can even go back 7 games, and Fields still has more total yards and the same number of TDs. Wild how the narrative is completely different even considering the players and circumstances around them.

This now makes for an interesting remainder of the season. Now Detroit, courtesy of LAR, has the #3 pick, and SEA, courtesy of DEN, has the #4 pick. Both of those teams could be in the hunt for a QB, which makes the #2 pick even that much more of an asset. DET - 3rd and 12th SEA - 4th and 16th CAR - 6th (4 slots) + 37th + 2024 1st LVR - 9th (7 slots) + 40th + 2024 1st + 2025 1st IND - 14th (12 slots) + 45th + 2023 3rd + 2024 1st + 2025 1st ATL - 15th (13 slots) + 46th + 2023 3rd + 2024 1st + 2025 1st + 2024 6th It feels like anything out of the top 10 is too much draft capital for one team to give up, so I don't think INDY or ATL bite. However, like some have said, a top end veteran could replace one of those 1st rounders. ATL is interesting just because of Pace being there. Would he trade up to #2 in a second organization? Seattle is still in play for #2 and a trade with the Bears. They could move ahead of Detroit for #4 + #35 + #67 and a 2024 2nd rounder, so they would only have to give up one 1st, and keep their second one this year. That would give the Bears #4, #35, #54, #65, and #67 in the 2023 draft in the first 3 rounds. 5 picks in the top 70 would be insane.