adam

I am glad Hamlin is recovering, that was crazy. The AFC playoff stuff with the canceled game is also wild. Baltimore could beat the Bengals twice but because of the lost game, they would need a coin flip to get a home game, when it should be theirs outright. If really feels like they blundered this. They could've easily had BUF-CIN finish their game, then started the AFC playoffs the following weekend. This option just didn't make sense to me. Teams that didn't even play in that game are impacted by the decision. In general, it seems like a bunch of teams are resting starters, some for the playoffs, some for other reasons *cough* tank *cough*. So there is a chance a team like Denver wins, or even Houston, which would be epic for the Bears. Lovie needs to give us one more on his way out. Go Texans! Of course GB gets the best deal, playing after the Seattle game, so Detroit will know if they have a shot at the playoffs or not before the game. I can't see Detroit winning if Seattle wins and Detroit has nothing to play for. I know Campbell is a bite your kneecaps kinda guy, but nothing is worse than playing that last game of the season when you know you have no shot at the playoffs. Most guys are just trying to avoid injury the entire game. ARob was the king of this. It feels like KC or CIN are the most consistent teams in the AFC and PHI and SF in the NFC. I am curious to see how far SF can get with Purdy at QB. It feels like he is going to let them down at some point. My guess is PHI vs KC in the SB with PHI winning it.

So just like Brisker are you saying Poles is using the late 2nd on a RB?

As much as a don't always agree with PFF as some of their evals are complete BS, their mock draft simulator is arguably the best one out there with realistic trades including rostered players. I guess they use their PFF score to give players values for trades. Very cool.

Absolutely, with any second contract RB, you are buying a Mustang that was a rental car. However, there are a bunch of guys with a lot more miles than some of the others, and I am sure this will come into play. Jacobs has over 1000 carries and is only 25. Monty has a lot of wear and tear and this may be a factor in them moving on from him. Career Rushing Attempts Jacobs 1055 Barkley 954 Montgomery 908 Williams 899 Hunt 891 Sanders 728 ------------- Robinson 514 Pollard 503 Jones 496 Harris 436 Foreman 431 Penny 337 I like the group below the line. Robinson was a 1K back, Pollard has looked explosive rushing and receiving. Foreman has looked solid for a terrible Panthers team.

Skoronski dominated from the first day in the door at Northwestern, even as an undergrad. His grandfather is an ex-NFL OT, so he has it in his DNA. He has been an elite pass blocker who only allowed 5 sacks in 2381 snaps (1 every 476 snaps) and was a starter since he was a freshman (18 yrs old). Most draft sites have him as the top ranked OL and a top 5 prospect. I haven't seen him past #2 OL and #10 overall. Proximity to Halas Hall make scouting him (talking with coaches, etc) much easier and more thorough.

Great team player, but FA market saturated with solid RBs like Monty. The Jump Cut was like a nervous tick for him. He did it regardless of the situation, which 80% of the time was unnecessary and allowed the defender to close on him. Just looking at some names: Barkley, Jacobs, Sanders, Pollard, Williams, Hunt, Foreman, Robinson, Harris, Jones, etc. All under 30. Jacobs and Robinson only 25!

They try for sure, but like last offseason, Poles only signed Patrick for the O-Line before the draft and no CBs. That may have led him to go for Gordon first knowing Vildor was penciled in as CB2.

It would be nice to address several positions so they can go into the draft thinking BPA and not having to chase one position or another.

Check out Kaleb McGary from the Falcons, RT, 28 yrs old, played 100% of the snaps, current contract APY is $2.5M, is a UFA, PFF grade of 86.1 which is basically a top 5 RT in the NFL. If they trust Jones at LT, instead of going Orlando Brown at LT (which will be way more expensive), they may want to consider McGary at RT. Would be a massive upgrade at that position. Da'Ron Payne is almost a requirement for the Bears on the DL, 12 sacks as an IDL, with Chase Young out most of the year is impressive. If the Bears can double up and get Payne and Carter, or McGary and Skoronski. Those are huge upgrades in the trenches.

Very true, but Poles may want to save some cap to carry-over to 2024, then front load some contracts that year to keep the "window" open a little longer. The 2023 FA class is not the greatest, so I don't know how much he will want to put into it. 2024 looks a lot better (as of today). If Fields is the guy, his rookie salary ends in 2025 (5th year option), so if they can front load some contracts with the extra cap, lessening the cap hits in say 2026-2027, that would give the Bears a few extra years with the same core.

A trade back while still getting one of Anderson, Carter, or Skoronski is a huge win in my book. They really need to get another pick between their early 1st rounder and late 2nd rounder. I hope Baltimore has a quick exit from the playoffs and loses this weekend. We need their 2nd to be as low as possible. A Baltimore loss and a Giants win in Week 18, with a Baltimore WC loss would give the Bears pick #54. Right now it is pick #55.

Also, you may want to manually modify the draft order for the top 10. As of today, DET (LAR) is 6th, IND 5th, ARZ 4th, SEA (DEN) 3rd. I don't see any of those teams changing positions after next week unless HOU upsets IND, which doesn't even look like an upset right now. That might be the game of the week for the Bears.

The more I do these mock drafts, the more I think the Bears want to at least come away with one of these players while they are so high in the draft: Anderson, ED Carter, DL Skoronski, OL So if they can drop to 5th or 6th, pick up an extra 2024 1st and an additional pick in 2023 while still getting one of these 3, I think that is the perfect scenario. The Colts feel like the sweet spot.

Here is my 5 round mock. I figured the Bears would work nicely with Pace in Atlanta, get #7, #38, #102 + a 2024 1st and 3rd for #2. Then trade back a few in the 2nd to pick up a couple extra 5ths. End up with an extra 2024 1st, 3rd, and 5th with 6 picks in the top 102 + Brown and Tillman in the 5th.

With Peterman starting and half the team on IR, this is probably going to be an ugly game. It may also be the last game for Montgomery in a Bears uniform. That is also probably the case with half the players on the roster. I expect some big turnover this offseason as most of the 1-yr contracts didn't impress. Viqueens 38-13 Peterman with 3 INTs, and we will probably see some Boyle.

I like the first and last trade. The middle one, not so much. #4 to #13 for only #33 and a mid to late 2024 2nd seems a little light. SF moved up 9 slots (12 > 3) for Lance. They gave up #12, 2022 1st, 2023 1st and a 2022 3rd to move up 9 slots (3x 1sts and a 3rd). Compare that to #13, #33, and a 2024 2nd (A 1st and 2x 2nds). SF sort of set the bar for that type of move. I assume it will take at least 2x 1sts to move up that high from outside of the top 10. Other than that, you can't complain with 9 picks in the top 65, which is in the same window that other teams get 2 players. That is a net +7, which would be pretty silly but awesome.

Congrats on the great season. Payouts were sent, Leaguesafe requires 5 members to approve the listed payouts: 1st - adam@pcXXXXXX - $440 +$35 from Andrew for next season 2nd - bradjock@yaXXXXX - $200 3rd - nopper2020@yaXXXXX - $75 4th - madlith@yaXXXXX - $35 If votes are not received, then the payouts go out on the 11th automatically. For anyone interested, we might have one free slot available for a new GM to take over an existing team. Let me know if anyone is interested. The league is going into its 14th year.

My thought process on the draft picks was Brisker should've been picked at 39 as BPA, then at 48 you take Pickens or Pierce, then at 71 you go Abraham Lucas or Bernhard Raimann for OL.

I don't know anymore, I am probably going to withhold any judgment until sometime mid next season. This 9-game losing streak, soon to be 10, has really soured my taste with Poles. I was hoping that the team would have less question marks now than they did at the start of the season, but it feels like they have more. If you rank his acquisitions from 1-10, it gets pretty bad pretty quick, and outside of Brisker, how many of his acquisition's was an actual upgrade? I feel like the jury is still out on Gordon, way too inconsistent to call a sure thing at this point. Braxton Jones? Rookie 5th round pick playing way better than anyone expected, but is that good enough to start in the NFL? Everyone is hoping he will get better but that is not always a sure thing. Gill replaced O'Donnell, so outside of salary, not really an upgrade. Sanborn looks awesome, but replaced Smith. Again, if anything salary savings. It may not be solely on Poles, but it is going to be Week 18 and they don't know what they really have in Velus Jones other than as a kick returner, and that is with how bad the WR corps has been. This may be more on the coaching staff, but the red flags about his age transitioned to other performance things that most hoped would not be there due to his age. The Claypool trade was understandable and at the time they were drafting mid-teens. Would you rather have #2 and Claypool or #14 and #47? That is basically what the Bears have now vs what was projected at that time. I would still take #2 and Claypool as pick #2 alone is worth more than #14 + #47. It is just unfortunate because he may have been able to get a better WR if he was bargaining with pick #33 vs #47 (at that time).

I wouldn't say that it won't happen, unlikely yes, but the Colts look worse than the Texans since Saturday took over. If they stay at #2, with all the holes that need to be filled, it seems that trading back and getting additional picks seems like the best option. If there are no good trades with value, or the trade back is too far, then Anderson would probably be my pick.

Sort of related but how crazy would it be for the Bears and Blackhawks to both get the #1 pick in the same draft year? Bears trade down, Hawks get Bedard.

Also, of note, BAL is going to have the 24th pick (assuming a WC weekend loss) as they have the best record amongst those teams (better SOS than LAC). Since MIA forfeited their 1st round pick, the Bears would get #54 or #55 if the Ravens lose in the WC or #56/#57 if they lose in the divisional round. I am really favoring a trade down because #2 to #54-57 would be a huge gap between picks. So much talent goes before that pick.

Besides seeding, there are 3 playoff spots left going into Week 18. The AFC South Champ, AFC Wildcard #3, and NFC Wildcard #3. TEN @ JAX is basically the AFC South Championship game, the winner is in. Pretty cool scheduling there. NE, MIA, PIT all 8-8, only one gets in. NE@BUF, NYJ@MIA, and CLE@PIT. There is also a weird scenario where JAX loses and NE, MIA, and PIT all lose, JAX gets in with TEN as Division champ. NE is win and in or losses by both MIA and PIT, MIA needs a win and NE to lose. PIT needs a win and for both MIA and NE to lose. GB, DET, SEA all 8-8, only one gets in. DET@GB, LAR@SEA. GB is now win and in vs DET. Another nice scheduling by the NFL. DET needs a win and a SEA loss. SEA needs a win and GB loss. Just based on the early odds, JAX wins the division, MIA gets in as the WC3 (NE loses, PIT wins), and unfortunately GB is favored against DET, while SEA wins but misses playoffs. It looks like JAX, BUF, MIA, PIT, GB, and SEA are all favored to win. I would love to see DET and SEA win to get SEA into the playoffs instead of DET or GB. That would be a comical ending for both Rodgers and DET. Detroit beats GB but still doesn't get in. That is their luck. We know it all too well.

Based on the preseason predictions, these were the most under and over achieving teams this year with 1 week left: 1. DEN 11-6 > 4-12 (-7) 2. LAR 11-6 > 5-11 (-6) 3. IND 9-8 > 4-11-1 (-4.5) 4. TB 12-5 > 8-8 (-4) 5. ARZ 8-9 > 4-12 (-4) 1. PHI 9-8 > 13-3 (+4) 2. NYG 6-11 > 9-6-1 (+3.5) 3T. JAX 5-12 > 8-8 (+3) 3T. MIN 9-8 > 12-4 (+3) 3T. ATL 3-14 > 6-10 (+3) 3T. SEA 5-12 > 8-8 (+3) DEN and LAR are by far the farthest off their projections. IND was a lot worse than expected. PHI and NYG both surprised. Of the positive teams, only PHI and JAX had a decent point differential. NYG was +0, MIN -19, ATL -34, and SEA +3. Those are all lucky teams and probably won games they shouldn't have. However, PHI (+127) and JAX (+50) look pretty strong. Any teams on here that surprised you? The Bears were -3 and could make it into the top 5 next week at -4 if TB or ARZ win.

Going thru several Prospect Big Boards, this is the consensus top 15 non-QBs: Top 5 Anderson, Edge (1 or 2 in every ranking) Carter, DL (2 to 5) -------------------- Top 10 Murphy, Edge (4 to 8 ) Skoronski, OL (5 to 13) Bresee, DL (5 to 14) -------------------- Top 20 Robinson, RB (3 - 15+) Mayer, TE (6 - 15+) Wilson, Edge (6 - 15+) Johnston, WR (7 - 15+) Johnson Jr., OL (9 - 15+) Addison, WR (9 - 15+) Porter JR, CB (9 - 15+) Smith, CB (9 - 15+) Ringo, CB (10- 15+) Simpson, LB (10- 15+) ---------------------- So if the Bears don't trade out of #1 or #2, then Anderson is the pick based on consensus BPA.