adam

Bears blockers as a team are 3rd in Run Block Win Rate. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46138675/2025-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings-pass-run-block

I just think if the player is going to be inactive, then before you have games with him being inactive, but not for injury, you trade him before you tank his value.

I think there are two parts to this. The player change definitely helped because Jones is not really a mauler. I also think the Raiders gassed themselves a little bit. If I asked you who won the Time of Possession battle, just thinking back about the game, I would assume you would say LVR won it (I thought they did) because of their running game, but in reality the Bears had the edge 33 mins to 27, and ran 64 plays to 52. In the 4th quarter the Bears had the ball on offense for basically 10 minutes out of 15 with 19 plays before the kneel down. The Bears going 7-16 on 3rd Down and 1-1 on 4th Down compared to LVR 2-8 and 0-1 respectively, was another factor. There was a stat coming into this week that the Bears were one of the best teams on yards before contact, but Swift was one of the worst YPC. I think it is a mix of both but for me, with more blame on Swift because Monangai should not have a better YPC than Swift as a rookie.

Huge injury news, Edwards, Loveland, AND Gordon all practiced today, so unless they have setbacks they will all be full goes for WAS in 13 days. Edwards is a tackling machine and Gordon is the swiss army knife they have missed. If Jarrett gets healed up too, it would be the first game with at least 10 starters on defense with JJ still out. Johnson also gets time to figure out the O-Line shuffle and incorporate Loveland and Burden more in the game plan.

One move I didn't think about was trading Braxton Jones for an RB or Edge. Very well possible if they are going to go with Benedet or Trapilo. Some have speculated that he would be inactive instead of a backup because he exclusively plays on the left.

Lamar is going to miss a few weeks with a hamstring.

Interesting how close Goff and Williams are passing: Goff 929 yds, 9 TD, 2 INT Williams 927 yds, 8 TD, 2 INT, 11th in yards, t-3rd in TD Passes, 15th in QBR, 14th in QB Rating. All the while Goff has Gibbs and Monty as RBs. Huge difference in running game support. Williams current 97.8 Rating would be the highest QB Rating in a single season in franchise history (w/ more than 250 attempts). Trubisky had a 95.4 in 434 attempts in 2018.

The Bears have to take care of business in the next 5 weeks before they hit the gauntlet of games starting in MIN in Week 11. The next 5 teams combine for a record of 6-14, then the last 8 combine for a current record of 20-10-2, 19-7-2 without CLE. If you hope for 4-1 in the next 5, then they need 4-4 to hit 10 wins, MIN, CLE, GB, and SF, PIT, or DET. Week 6 at WAS 2-2 (#10 OFF EPA/P) Week 7 vs NO 0-4 Week 8 at BAL 1-3 (#7 OFF EPA/P) Week 9 at CIN 2-2 Week 10 vs NYG 1-3 -------------------- Weel 11 at MIN 2-2 (#1 DEF for EPA/P) Week 12 vs PIT 3-1 Week 13 at PHI 4-0 (FRI Game on the road ugh, short week+road, feels like the DET game in Week 2, #4 DEF EPA/P) Week 14 at GB 2-1-1 (GB gets one day of extra rest playing on THU while Bears play on FRI, #4 OFF EPA/P) Week 15 vs CLE 1-3 (#12 DEF EPA/P) Week 16 vs GB 2-1-1 (SAT Game, short week, GB has to travel back from SUN afternoon game in DEN, helps Bears, #4 OFF EPA/P) Week 17 at SF 3-1 (SF plays MNF in Week 16 in IND, short week plus travel back home helps Bears, #9 DEF EPA/P) Week 18 vs DET 3-1 (could easily be resting their starters for this one, in CHI in January lol for Goff, #3 OFF EPA/P, #5 DEF EPA/P) 2 games left vs an Elite offense only (GBx2) 4 games left vs an Elite defense (MIN, PHI, CLE, SF, 3 on the road) 1 game left vs a team with an elite offense and defense (DET) The Bears are 22nd on offense and 20th on defense for EPA/P. Rushing game on offense is the biggest liability with the run defense the 2nd biggest issue. Pass Defense the biggest strength followed by Pass Offense.

With the DEN win, all 4 2nd Year QBs that played won this week. Nix had a really good game, and bumped his QBR over 50. So going into Week 5, the 4 non-injured QBs all have QBRs over 50, which is cool to see. Hopefully this group turns out to be the next 1983 QB class.

Yeah, they have fallen off even more than I thought they did. BAL did not look good either. Next 5, all are winnable.

Yeah, he definitely has the physical traits.

It is really hard for me to evaluate the defense with so many injuries but I can see a few players individually making plays. I thought Stevenson and Byard have been the two standout players so far, especially the last two weeks. You didn't mention getting Gordon back. I think it will be a huge boost to get him back. Edmunds is playing better, but yeah, he is not worth what he is being paid. Need Edwards back, Sewell is ok, but not a full time starter. I don't know what to make of the DLine. Billings and Dexter are the starters, and neither are playing as good as they did last year. Sweat is a great DE2 but needs more sacks to be in the DE1 conversation. I don't know if we have even seen Jarrett healthy yet. Kind of disappointed in Turner so far, for a 2nd round pick, you should not be that invisible. The defense as a whole has been underwhelming outside of the takeaways. For offense, Caleb and Rome have been the standout players. The O-Line still feels like it is a work in progress. I was hoping the interior would be a strength but Jackson has been terrible, and both Dalman and Thuney have not lived up to their billing. The OTs have been a weakness, but some promising play in the 2nd half from the young bucks. So we will see. Swift has been bad. I don't know why they have not tried Roschon or anyone else at this point. With the emergence of Burden, Moore feels like an easy trade candidate, if not at the deadline, then definitely in the offseason. Kmet is probably 2nd on that list from the offense. They drafted his replacement and Kmet is playing worse than he did last year thru 4 weeks. Special Teams overall has been a massive disappointment before Cairo hitting 4 FGs and Blackwell making that block. Coverage units have been terrible, punting has been bad, and returns have been ok, but nothing to write home about. For defense, they still need impact players at DT, Edge, LB, and S. On offense, RB and OT are the top priorities.

In the last two games he has allowed 3 receptions for 16 yards on 12 targets with 3 PBUs, an INT, and a forced fumble + fumble recovery. PFF had the LVR game as his highest graded game of his career at 93.3 and the DAL game was his 3rd best. So in the last two weeks, Stevenson had 2 of his top 3 games of his career, and both games he was technically CB1. This is year 3 for him, but if he keeps this up, the Bears may want to get in front of an extension because he will only get more expensive.

Caleb now has been sacked 7 times in 4 games, 75 in his career. Just say he averages 2 sacks per game for the remainder of the season, he would no longer be in the top 20 sacked QBs (first 34 games starting their careers). So for how bad he was sacked last year, he can completely change the narrative in respect to sacks if he can continue to average 2 per game (which he is under right now).

These are the 5 games leading up to the next Divisional game against MIN in Week 11. Week 6 at WAS (WAS is 2-2 heading into a road game against LAC, very well could return home 2-3 before playing the Bears). Week 7 vs NO (NO is 0-4, plays NYG, then NE at home before playing the Bears, could easily be 0-6 by then). Week 8 at BAL (BAL is coming out of their bye, gonna be a tough game, Madubuike out for season though). Week 9 at CIN (Burrow on IR, they play NYJ the week prior at home, have 3 straight home games with the Bears being the 3rd). Week 10 vs NYG (Nabers on IR, play SF at home the week prior) 3-2 seems likely, with 4-1 very possible depending on the health of WAS and/or BAL. I think NO and NYG should be wins, leaving the other 3 games as toss ups with CIN being the most likely win, then WAS depending on Daniels and McLaurin's health. Lamar and Daniels kinda scare me because the Bears really don't have a fast spy that can keep up with those QBs if they slip the pressure. So 5-4 or 6-3 heading into MIN. MIN has CLE, PHI, LAC, DET, and BAL before CHI. I could easily see them 4-5 or 5-4 going into that game. GB has CIN, ARZ, PIT, CAR, then PHI in those same weeks. After tying DAL, it would seem like 3-2 is the most likely outcome for their games, maybe 4-1, so 5-3-1 or 6-2-1. DET has the lightest schedule, CIN, KC, TB, MIN, WAS, 1 loss, maybe 2, so 7-2 or 6-3

PFF Grades overall thru Week 4 and for Week 4: Overall Williams 75.0 (9th) / 62.2 vs LVR Maye 73.9 (10th) / 76.5 vs CAR Daniels 71.0 / DNP Penix 61.1 / 84.4 vs WAS McCarthy 55.5 / DNP Nix 44.6 (plays MNF)

PFF Grades for Week 4: Top 5 Bottom 5 Offense Monangai 70.8 Thuney 66.6 Dalman 65.4 Odunze 65.3 Zaccheaus 65.1 ------------ Smythe 49.4 Trapilo 47.9 Kmet 46.9 Jones 41.3 Benedet 38.7 TE and OTs struggled. Defense Byard 94.1 Stevenson 93.3 Billings 66.9 Sweat 66.5 Robinson 61.8 ------------ Edmunds 49.6 Wright 49.2 Kpassoagnon 46.2 Ford 46.0 Odeyingbo 41.7 Byard and Stevenson playing at an all-pro level. Both had higher grades than Maxx Crosby lol.

I can only assume that he is either struggling with the playbook or pass pro. Jamaal Williams, Gus Edwards, and Donte Foreman are all available. None of those guys are going to wow you, but all have shown enough in this league to at least give them a shot. They can't be worse than what Swift has shown so far. Hell, Khalil Herbert was just signed and now released by the Colts. We all know Herbert is at least serviceable. Herbert's career YPC is 4.8 and he could be used on special teams. Don't know why the team stopped using him last year, then traded him to CIN.

Have to give Scot Daly credit, I believe he was the one that brought it to the attention of the team.

Maxx Crosby was less effective in the 2nd half. The change, Braxton Jones comes out, they slide Benedet over to LT and Trapilo gets 40 snaps at RT. I will have to watch every snap, but Trapilo was solid, if not above average at RT, and Benedet was solid at LT as well.

Looking back at some of the replays, a huge missed holding call on LVR on that long Jeanty run. Kpassagnon was clearly held at the point of attack, which would've been a short gain at best. Jonah Jackson got called for something way less egregious on a Monangai run.

Caleb has 8 career INTs, 2 of them are literally throw aways that were caught, one this year. The last one by Crosby was a crazy tipped pass and catch. What is very promising is that of his nearly 700 career passing attempts, so few were INT worthy.

Caleb is the first QB in NFL history with over 4,400 Passing Yards, 500 Rushing Yards, 25 Passing TDs, and fewer than 10 INTs through their first 21 games to start a career. There is no one else. Year 2 QBs thru Week 4 (Career Numbers) Nix 4310 Pass Yds, 34 TD, 15 INT, 501 Rush Yds, 4 TD (Plays MNF) Williams 4468 Pass Yds, 28 TD, 8 INT, 599 Rush Yds, 1 TD Daniels 4001 Pass Yds, 28 TD, 9 INT, 976 Rush Yds, 6 TD Maye 3264 Pass Yds, 22 TD, 12 INT, 519 Rush Yds, 4 TD Penix 1693 Pass Yds, 6 TD, 6 INT, 42 Rush Yds, 2 TD McCarthy 301 Pass Yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 50 Rush Yds, 1 TD

They were purposely chewing the clock down the entire last drive, every play took 40 seconds off the clock. Then they get 1st and goal at the 2 and use one play. LVR used a timeout there before the TD. If you think they should not have tried to burn some clock with 4 plays to score, then there is no way going for a 4th Down with more than a yard would ever make sense. The probability of scoring a TD with 2 yards to go with multiple plays is magnitudes higher than going for it on 4th Down with more than a yard to go when you only have one play. I know the Bears are not there yet, but in general, I think you need to burn the clock and force LVR to use another TO on at least one play after that first down. I get it that if you don't score you lose, but the exact thing played out on why you need to burn more clock/timeouts as they need a blocked FG to negate it.

The bye week is a good week to bring someone in if you are going to do it. There are several trade candidates and a few other guys still on the street.