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Everything posted by adam
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Deadline is the 30th.
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The top 2 most improved QBs thru 3 weeks are Daniel Jones and Caleb Williams. Jones was beyond terrible, so he had much more room to get better. He is playing great and looks like a completely different QB. Of all the QBs in the NFL that played last season, there are only 3 that are better this year than they were last year, which is quite shocking to be honest. The 3rd QB is Rattler but like Jones, he was so bad that just playing average makes him look like the second coming of Dan Marino.
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Yeah, Crosby will get his pressures and probably a sack, but none of his effort has really ever equated to anything for the team. Since he joined them in 2019, they have a losing record and only one season with a record above .500.
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Yeah, it's a mindset thing. You can tell when things start to click for guys. I am sure there will be more bumps in the road, but I think we are on the way up.
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One thing for me that is promising is that it didn't look difficult. Caleb and by extension Ben made everything look easy. We have been asking for a scheme that got receivers open, and we are finally seeing it.
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Caleb is excelling in situational football. 3rd Downs, 123.7 Passer Rating, Red Zone, 120.5 Passer Rating, trailing with 4 mins to go, 134.2 Passer Rating. Right now he needs to improve on 2nd Down, 57.5 Passer Rating (1 INT), and in the 3rd Quarter, 68.4 Passer Rating, but that's about it. Another solid performance against LVR and I think some of these numbers will level out.
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That is absolutely fair, but after Week 4, we will be thru the first quarter of the season. So unless there are huge changes in usage and performance, what they have already done will just continue to trend in the relative same way for the remainder of the season.
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Poles really does suck. Take your pick for OT in the first, probably can trade back from 10 and still get Simmons. Burden was a no-brainer once the Ohio St RBs went, but what about Mukuba over Trapilo in the 2nd, then trade the Turner pick for later ones to pickup Skattebo and Gadsden. Poles would be better off using mock draft simulators. Josh Simmons/Greg Zabel (OT) - 1st Luther Burden (WR) - 2nd Andrew Mukuba (S) - 2nd (Trapilo) Cam Skattebo (RB) - 3rd/4th (Turner) Oronde Gadsden (TE) - 4th/5th (Turner)
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So looking up some different stats, I was shocked to find out that there is only one QB in NFL history to open their career up with over 4,000 Passing Yards, +25 Passing TDs, less than 10 INTs, and 500 Rushing Yards before the age of 24. Caleb Williams. I think he has 5 more games before hitting 24. So every stat he gets will stack onto this own record. He should easily hit 5K and 30 TDs by then. Crazy.
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He runs into the back of a blocker or into a defender on every run. Even on the long screen pass, if he keeps running right, he gains 10 more or might have scored. Instead he cuts back towards the defender and runs into a tackle.
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So 9 wins seems very realistic, with up to 11 if they take care of the teams they should be (going 6-0), and splitting the division games (going 3-1 for the remaining 4). NYG, CLE, NO, CIN, LVR, and WAS 5-1 PIT and SF (w/o Bosa) 1-1, could win both. BAL and PHI 0-2, could sneak 4 DIV Games (MIN, DET, GBx2) 2-2
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Week 3 Tankathon Standings: 1. NYJ 0-3 2. NO 0-3 3. TEN 0-3 4. MIA 0-3 5. NYG 0-3 6. HOU 0-3 Bears now 14th at 1-2, with all teams from 7th-15th at 1-2.
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Swapping the MIN - W and DAL - L, the Bears would've been 1-2 heading to LVR. So a win there, then into the bye at 2-2, and this is back to being on track for 10 wins.
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The Raiders just got gashed by Marcus Mariota. WAS sacked Geno Smith 5 times, and they had a punt return for a TD. On defense LVR is closer to DAL than MIN or DET. LVR has fewer QB Pressures than DAL. I feel like this is a high 20s to low 20s type of game, like Bears 28-20. The Bears have to get to 2-2 going into the early bye. For the Raiders, this is not as much of a must-win for them.
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Overall, in PFF, as a team, the Bears are 19th, OFF is 9th, and DEF is 29th. To me, that actually feels about right, the offense is top 10, defense bottom 5. We just need the defense to be top 20 and I think this team will win more than it loses. I think we are going to get to a point where if the offense scores 30+, they will win, and lose if they score 24 or less.
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Through Week 3 PFF Grades: Williams 78.1 (10th) Maye 71.2 (12th) Daniels 71.0 (14th) Penix 51.4 (26th) Nix 44.6 (28th)/ 28 eligible Caleb is now 9th in Passing Yards, T-1st in Passing TDs, 6th in Passer Rating, 9th in Y/A, 9th in EPA/DB, 9th in QBR, and 12 QBs have taken more sacks than him.
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Top 5 OFF and DEF PFF Grades: Burden - 93.0 Loveland - 88.7 Odunze - 77.8 Williams - 76.8 Dalman - 76.4 4 guys on rookie deals and a guy you just signed to a long-term deal. That is what I like to see. Dexter - 83.6 Edmunds - 83.4 Stevenson - 79.8 Robinson - 74.1 Sweat - 72.7 Nice to see 2 Edge players and 3 total from the trenches on there. Billings and Odeyingbo were 7th and 8th.
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Yeah in 1 or 2 more games, Williams will have the best numbers for their careers of every QB in his class outside of Daniels rushing numbers. He already has the best Year 2 numbers by a wide margin.
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Week 3 - Williams - 86.6 QBR - 298 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks, and 12 rushing yds. 310 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 67.0 Maye - 59.5 QBR - 268 yds. 2 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks, and 45 rushing yds and 1 Fumble. 333 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 57.3 Nix - 38.5 QBR - 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, and 33 rushing yds. 186 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 41.6 Penix - 12.4 QBR - 172 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0 sacks, and 9 rushing yds. 181 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 47.7 Daniels - DNP / Season QBR: 38.9 McCarthy - DNP / Season QBR: 20.5 (Last in NFL) 3 straight games for Williams with improvement to Comp%, Y/A, TD, and QB Rating. ------- Week 1 > 2 > 3 Comp% - 60% > 63.3% > 67.9% Y/A - 6.0 > 6.9 > 10.6 Pass TD - 1 > 2 > 4 QB Rating - 86.6 > 91.9 > 142.6 Don't look now, Williams is on pace for 4,051 passing yards, 40 Passing TD, 6 INT. He would have 3,812 thru 16 games. So he even has a shot to break Kramer's team record of 3,838 in the same number of games, and also hit 4K in the same year. Very promising. Now we need to stack weeks like this. Over 20 games, the top 3 QBs in the 2024 class, TD/INT: Nix 34 TD, 15 INT Daniels 28 TD, 9 INT Williams 27 TD, 7 INT Nix only has 46 more passing yards than Williams, who are now 1-2 in Passing Yards.
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Yeah Bears receivers still leaving some plays on the field. Even with those drops, there have only been 22 other times in NFL history where a QB threw 4 TDs with no INTs or Sacks, with a Y/A over 10.0 and under 30 attempts. Williams was the 23rd time.
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0 sacks taken, 0 INTs, 4 TDs and a ton of explosive plays. This offense hasn't even scratched the surface yet.
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Feels like a double win with the GB loss to CLE. Now they need to handle business in LVR and go into the bye at 2-2 feeling good.
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No running game again. Swift 13-33 yds, but had one for 11, so he went 12-22 the rest of the way. Monangai was not much better at 6-16, but he did lose a bunch on one run.
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Ok 3 INTs and 1 forced fumble for the defense. Not bad. The reverse Flus Revenge game worked lol. One of the best games in Williams career, very promising.
