adam

St. Brown was making plays today too. Seems like a legit RZ threat. Harry played much better.

After two early INTs (Brisker and Gordon), Fields did this to end the practice:

Kmet has also looked really good.

Yes, the 2020 Bengals going into the season with Burrow in his second year after an abbreviated first year, a rookie WR starting, a bad O-Line, and no big names on defense. The Bears this year have Fields after an abbreviated rookie year, a rookie WR starting, a questionable O-Line, and no big names on defense. I totally get the WR corps, I am not denying that. However, where else do they have the edge, which position group? They had 2 of the worst OLmen in the league last year (luckily Reiff was one of their best). We upgraded from Mustipher to Patrick, and went from Peters to Reiff and Daniels to Schofield. At worst, that is an upgrade because Mustipher was below average. Cincy won 10 games (lost to Bears lol), so I don't think it is that far of a stretch to see the Bears win 8 or 9.

Hear me out on this one. I am comparing where the teams were at, at the time. Burrow coming off ACL was a huge question mark, Chase was a rookie WR, terrible OLine, no big names on defense, no depth after starting RB and TE. Again outside of WRs, where are the Bengals better than this year's Bears? Also note, the 2021 bad news Bears beat that Bengals team. I also think we buy into the media a little bit as well. All we hear is this team is going to be crap but we essentially only lost 3 big name players who didn't contribute full time last year anyway (Mack, Hicks, Robinson); those are the only key losses. Nagy is gone too and he was the biggest problem. Fields is in his 2nd year and first one with an actual off season.

A nice little nugget here: Both for $4M cap hit? Sounds good to me.

Comparing position groups, the teams look fairly similar outside of one or two players. QB - Burrow (coming off ACL) vs Fields RB - Mixon/Perine vs Monty/Herbert TE - Uzomah vs Kmet WR - Chase/Higgins/Boyd vs Mooney/Pringle/Harry/Jones OL - Williams/Spain/Carman/Hopkins/Reiff vs Reiff/Whitehair/Patrick/Schofield/Jenkins WR Group is where the Bengals have a huge advantage ceiling, however, they didn't really have a WR4. For O-Lines, the Bears have a better O-Line than the Bengals did last year. You can call the other 3 groups washes, so Cincy has a slight advantage on offense due to the skill level of their top 3 WRs. Mooney would be the only one of ours in that group. For defense: DL - Hubbard/Reader/Ogunjobi/Hendrickson vs Quinn/Blackson/Jones/Gipson LB - Wilson/Pratt vs Smith/Morrow DB - Apple/Awuzie/Hilton/Bell/Bates vs Johnson/Gordon/Graham/Jackson/Brisker We have the top Edge guys, way better LBs and a better core DB group. As a whole the Bears have a better defense. For special teams: McPherson vs Santos Huber vs Gill The Bengals had no depth at RB and TE on offense. Their deepest group was their DL rotation. That seems like a wash. Am I crazy, or are these teams fairly close outside of the WR group?

Reiff is definitely the LT, looks like Jenkins vs Borom for RT. Jones as backup LT.

Ok, what if I said, which games are guaranteed losses? BUF? GB? Of the losses I listed, the Bears can beat MIN, MIA, DAL, PHI, and NE. I feel like the Bears can be in every game except BUF to be honest. Using DVOA, the Bears have 6 games against teams with a top 10 DVOA (DAL, BUF, NE, SF, GBx2). 3 games against teams with a DVOA 11-20 (PHI, MINx2), and 8 games against teams with a DVOA from 21-32 (WAS, MIA, NYJ, HOU, DETx2, ATL, NYG). Just using DVOA as a metric, the Bears should win the 8 and maybe 1 or 2 of the 3 middle games, and none of the top games.

With injuries, you can't have enough depth. If Jones is 2nd String LT, Jenkins/Borom end up as RT1 and RT2, Mustipher is C/G2, we are pretty solid.

For SF, they are basically the same team the Bears were leading into the 4th quarter and if not for defensive failures and a missed PAT by Santos, they win that game. Miami added a lot more than just Hill, they have a better roster, but it is a winnable game.

Ok, we are about to start the real offseason and based on the latest moves, here are my updated game predictions: 1: vs 49ers (WIN, the Bears almost beat them with Nagy's offense, Fields will beat Lance) 2: at GB SNF (LOSS, this will be a close game but GB is still better) 3: Texans (WIN, a terrible roster, this will be an easy win) 4: at NYG (WIN, Daniel Jones is still the QB, a 3-1 start is possible) 5: at Vikings (LOSS, I have Bears splitting, could be a win here and loss later) 6: Commanders TNF (WIN, Chase Young tore his ACL and was their best player, I doubt he plays or if he does, won't be his old self) 7: at Patriots MNF (LOSS, this one could go either way, but I give the edge to the home team) 8: at Cowboys (LOSS, Prescott is a great regular season QB, 4-4 after Week 8) 9: Dolphins (LOSS, the new Dolphins are much better this year) 10: Lions (WIN, they are getting better, but they still have Goff at QB) 11: at Falcons (WIN, this team is in full rebuild mode) 12: at Jets (WIN, getting better, but still not very good, 7-5 at Week 12, still in the Wild Card picture) 13: Packers (LOSS, this one could be a win, I think the Bears play everyone close) 14: Bye week (7-6 at the bye, still have playoffs in reach) 15: Eagles (LOSS, another one that could go either way, Eagles seem to be better, but not by much) 16: Bills (Xmas Eve) (LOSS, probably the best team on the schedule, I can't see the Bears beating them, this 3 game losing streak probably knocks team out of playoffs) 17: at Lions (New Years Day) (WIN, same Lions with Goff, already eliminated, so it won't matter either way) 18: Vikings (WIN, eliminated a few weeks earlier, this game won't matter, will probably see a lot of subs starting) I am counting 9 wins, so 9-8 or 8-9 with loss to SF? It feels like that is so doable based on the schedule. Lose to GB twice, beat DET twice, split with MIN in the division. Thoughts?

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Oh yeah, thats the thing. We now have Mustipher as a backup, which is perfect for him. Same goes for one of Borom/Jenkins/Jones. Two of those guys are now backups. So our 2nd string includes Mustipher, and let's say Borom and Jones. That is actually a decent set of rotational guys on the line. Other teams don't have that type of depth.

He is not a full route tree guy, but I think we can get some decent production out of him as a WR3.

Reiff would've been higher but he got hurt. I would say they are both B level players. It also depends on the guys around you. Reiff was probably the best player on a bad O-Line. Schofield started off with a bad game, but then improved over time. However, his grade was for the entire season, not how he ended up.

It is a system thing too. Like you said, Hicks didn't work out for NE but was a beast with us. I am sure Harry is better than he has shown in NE, but once in that doghouse, it is almost impossible to get out.

$2M is tied to making the playoffs and $2.5M tied to playing time. So we know he is not making the $2M and may not make all of the $2.5M, so the range is more like $8-10.5M. Peters was cheap last year, should have made $5-6M. Reiff was better, he only had 1 penalty and allowed 4 sacks in 711 snaps. Peters had 3 penalties and 6 sacks in 853 snaps.

The offense was 26th and defense 13th last year. On offense, QB should be better, RB at least a push, TE a push, WR a push, and OL actually improved. So I am thinking offense around 20th, all units between 10th (RB) to 28th (WR). OL probably around 25. QB and TE 15th? On defense, the DL 20th (Edge 10th/Interior 30th), LBs 15th, DBs 10th, overall 15th. 7 to 8 wins

Both Borom and Jenkins are not Poles "guys" so he is not tied to them in any way. The new regime doesn't have to feel pressured to start either of them just because. Pace was notorious for hanging onto guys just because of their draft status.

Peters was 39 and was literally retired on a boat when they made the call. No one was calling him. Reiff was still one of the top OTs left on the market. 24 OTs make 12M or more per year. He would have to hit all his incentives to hit that mark as well. The 10M-12M range is the gap between the top 25 and next 25 OTs. So he comes in on the low end for a starting OT. Armstead, 31, signed for $15M a year, Noteboom (who only played 16% of the snaps) signed for $13.3M, and the next guy, Okorafor (PIT) signed for $9.75M. So Reiff comes in lower than Armstead and Noteboom, but higher than Okorafor. That is about where he should be.

I was really worried about the O-Line. These two were in the target group I wanted at the start of free agency. Maybe not the top guys, but both on one-year deals which allows the younger guys to develop under them. Reiff is only 33, so he has a few good years left in him. Schofield is 31 and is married to Kendall Coyne who works for the Blackhawks, so I could see him signing an extension or resigning after this year to stay in the area for a few more years. Now I want one more guy on the D-Line and I will be happy. We will have a very solid 53. We didn't increase the ceiling, but we increased the floor.

The Bears had $20M in cap space before the Reiff and Schofield signings. Will have to see what is left, but I figure they can still add maybe a DL to the roster which would be the last "hole" to fill in my opinion.

Patrick, Whitehair, Reiff, Schofield + Borom/Jenkins/Jones with Mustipher as a backup C/G is a very solid line. Now let the best young player win the other OT spot and you have a very solid line and an upgrade at basically 3 spots from last year, with upgraded 2nd string depth.

Had to wait for post-June 1st cuts for the cap space, then at that point, there is no point rushing into signing anyone. The vets don't need anything up until reporting this week. So the guys they just signed have lost out on basically nothing. Quinn hasn't been to Halas Hall until today as well. So to me, it is a normal vet thing. I am sure those guys also didn't want to sign until they had the best offer that also got them into camp on time. Win win all around.