adam

I thought this was interesting, using position groups for target share for the Bears in 2021:\ WR: 58.4% (17th) TE: 24.2% (8th) RB: 17.4% (25th) All of these were within 0.7% of KCs distribution. Nagy copied Reid with his crayons. Assuming we will be more like GB now, they had the 8th highest to WR (64%), 20th to RB (18.6%) and 26th to TE (18.4%). That would mean the Bears will target their WRs and RBs more and their TEs less next year.

Ebner is very intriguing. He is definitely a sleeper this year. If he gets the ball in the open field, he can score on every play. Ebner and Jones is going to be fun options.

Adams didn't break 500 yds receiving until his 3rd year and didn't hit 1K until his 5th! The media has so many false narratives. The way they talk about him now, he has been a WR1 for a decade. He is also going to be 30 this year. Mooney hit 1K in year 2 with 3 different QBs. So he is trending higher much earlier in his career than Adams. Not that he will peak at the same point, but he is on a good glide path. The broken plays account for a ton of yards and receptions and a QB and team can't really take advantage of them until the unit is locked in. Hopefully, we will see more of that this year. ARob accounted for several INTs when he would just give up on a play that Fields extended.

Getsy really is the anti-Nagy which bodes well for the team. Nagy literally rode the coattails of Reid, and never should've ascended higher than QB Coach. Everyone has a cap on what they can do/handle and clearly Nagy is no more than an ok QB Coach. Getsy is already more qualified than Nagy as an OC. The 5th and 6th passing options are not going to be that big of a deal, so once you get past Mooney, Kmet, Pringle, and Monty, the next guys, even Jones won't have more than 50 targets. St. Brown will be lucky to get 30, same for Horsted, O'Shaughnessy, Herbert, etc.

It looks like Poles already changed over 50% of the roster and we still have more free agency and others to sign/cut. This team is going to look completely different in 2023 compared to last year, and a lot younger.

Thanks. People must not realize just how bad Nagy was and how little he did for Fields. At least they supported Trubisky for the first year or two. Fields never had a chance. Just by removing his first two games (CIN and CLE) where he literally had zero time as QB1, his sacks drop by 11 (basically 33%), his comp% goes up to 61.6% and his Y/A becomes the highest for a rookie for 2021 at 7.35. If he was given QB1 reps in the offseason, had a game plan built around him, he would've easily had over 3K passing yards, 20 TDs last year. So looking back at what Jackson and Allen did in their Year 2s, I think Fields will easily exceed some of their numbers, and like you would not be surprised if he was the Bears first franchise 4K passer (which no requires an average of only 235 yards a game). With the Bears easier schedule, next year is the year to play the underdog.

Ranked 27th of out 1632 RBs since 1987.

Full list of moves: Mack is gone. Teague must really have injured concerns because his physical traits were thru the roof.

They also said the WR class next year is way deeper than this year. So it made sense not to jump at 1st or 2nd rounders when those guys would be going a round later in 2023.

Gordon has the same RAS as Denzel Ward (both 9.69) and they both had 2x INTs their last season in college (which were their only 2 in college). Gordon is a little taller and stronger with a better vertical. Ward is faster.

Also, age is just one trait. You could do the same thing for height, weight, speed, any combine metric, experience, etc. So to me it is somewhat subjective using an objective data point. I personally would rather use the holistic approach and age is just one factor. In terms of Fields development, it may actually help him that his top 3 WRs are 25, 25, and 29 (in 2022), his RB1 is 25 and his TE1 is 23. So as much as they can learn together, he is not dealing with that many 20-22 yr olds who are still maturing as an adult.

Thanks guys, I am sure there are other examples as well, these just seemed comparable to Fields based on his dual-threat ability. Outside of Hopkins, Watson didn't have much in terms of talent or an O-Line and did just fine his 2nd year. I feel like a lot of media guys crapped on Fields since the beginning and now are doubling down. It went from black QB, to not smart, to not a hard worker, to unable to read defenses, to throwing mechanics, to holding the ball to long, to lack of ball security. The list goes on and on. Now it's he doesn't have the players around him. Another interesting note, I think the defense is going to be better than last year and close to Buffalo and Baltimore in 2019. I think both were top 10. I think Bears can have a top 15 defense.

* CAUTION - LONG * So the latest trend with Fields after the draft is that he has the worst supporting cast in the NFL. I get that the Bears didn't draft a WR in the 2nd but would drafting Pickens, Pierce, or Moore in the 2nd instead of Jones in the 3rd really change anything? I highly doubt it. Going into this season, the Bears already have 4x players who had over 50 targets from last season (Mooney, Kmet, Pringle, and Montgomery). Why does that matter? Well I am glad you asked. I looked back at two recent 2nd-year QBs that made significant leaps in the 2nd seasons, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I am not saying Fields is going to win MVP like Jackson did, but check out what both guys did in their 2nd years and who their supporting casts were: Lamar Jackson was truly a dual-threat QB in his 2nd season, gaining over 4300 yds (Passing+Rushing) with 43 combined TDs. His Passing numbers were modest by today's standards outside of the crazy TD-INT ratio: 265-401, 66.1%, 3127 yds, 36 TD, 6 INT. His rushing numbers were off the charts as he was one of the top rushers in the NFL and best on his team with 176-1206, and 7 TD. I don't recall anyone saying he had the worst supporting cast in the NFL that year, but here are his top 5 targets from 2019: 1. Andrews - 98 2. M. Brown - 71 3. Snead - 46 4. Boyle - 43 5. Hurst - 39 Outside of Andrews, there is not much there. Andrews over Kmet ok, but then Mooney over Brown, and Pringle over Snead. Would you rather have a TE2 or RB1 with the next highest targets, or does it matter? Still Boyle or Montgomery? Also, does #5 really matter? Nope. Also interesting, no RBs made the list. So they had to be great rushing right? Here are the top 2 RBs in rushing from 2019: 1. Ingram 202-1018, 10 TD 2. Edwards 133-711, 2 TD The threat of Lamar running made their numbers (from a yards per carry standpoint, look good), but barely eclipsing 1000 yards nowadays is not that big of a deal. Monty+Herbert are as equal if not better all-around than Ingram and Edwards were in 2019. So now to Josh Allen. He had a similar uptick from his rookie year, just not the crazy TDs and rushing yards that Jackson had. He had a passing line of 271-461, 58.8%, 3089 yds, 20 TD, 9 INT which was very modest across the board. Even his rushing numbers were similar outside of the higher TDs: 109-510, 9 TD. In a quick comparison, Fields had over 400 rushing yards in 30+ less carries last year in Nagy's offense. So did Josh Allen also have the worst supporting cast in the NFL in 2019? Here are his top 5 targets that year: 1. John Brown - 115 2. Beasley - 106 3. Knox - 50 4. Singletary - 41 5. McKenzie - 39 Allen's distribution was a little different than Jackson's. More to WRs and RBs, and less to TEs. Mooney or Brown? Mooney. Beasley or Pringle, I will say Beasley (in 2019). Knox or Kmet, I will take 2022 Kmet over 2019 Knox. Monty vs Singletary, Monty, and again does #5 really matter? Again no. Now who were Allen's top 2 RBs in 2019 in rushing? 1. Singletary 151-775, 2 TD 2. Gore 166-599, 2 TD The ageless Frank Gore and a very young Singletary who ended up as a poor man's David Montgomery if you ask me. Again, would you rather have Montgomery+Herbert or Singletary+Gore from 2019? Seems like another easy answer. Here is what the Bears have on the roster and their targets from 2021: Bears players with top 5 targets from 2021 season: 1. Mooney - 140 2. Kmet - 93 3. Pringle - 60 4. Montgomery - 51 5. O'Shaughnessy - 34 Mooney had 25 more targets than the next highest player (with 3 QBs and in Nagy's offense). Kmet only had 5 fewer than Andrews in that same anemic offense. Pringle, who was basically a 5th or 6th option in KC saw more targets than any #3 player on the lists. Monty was the only #4 player to have over 50 targets and he missed several games. Even O'Shaughnessy gets into the action with his 34 targets at #5. So if Velus Jones comes in and gets 50 targets, will this thread explode? TLDR? The bottom line is the 5th or 6th highest targeted player on the team doesn't make or break the roster or Fields career. There is only 1 ball and 1 target per play. If Jackson can have an MVP season with that skill position group and Allen can take a huge leap year with that position group, there is no reason why Fields, who came out of college more polished, shouldn't put up comparable numbers to both of those guys in the new system that is not run by a Clown shoe. After looking at what those other guys did, I expect Fields to have no less than 3500+ passing yards with 25+ TDs, <12 INTs, and 600+ rushing yards, 5+ TDs AND I would not be surprised if he surpasses those numbers.

Nope, checking it out now.

Cohen averaged 75 receptions between 18-19 and had 53 his rookie year (before Nagy), so I don't know if you can say he was primarily just a PR. In his first 3 seasons, he was 2nd, 1st, and 2nd on the team in receptions. He was actually pretty effective out of the backfield until 2019 too. In 17-18, he averaged 4.3 and 4.5 Y/A. I doubt Jones will ever hit 75 receptions in a year. I am thinking he will put up something similar to Anthony Miller numbers (receptions from 30-50, yards from 400-600, TDs from 2-5).

As of today, it looks like there are only a couple of "starting" positions that need to be settled. Looking at the offense, RG seems like the only position where there is not someone locked in at least for now. The WR room still looks like it could use one more veteran to add to the competition with Jones, Newsome, and Moore. The RB room is a strength and the TE room has enough. So outside of RG, maybe LT if Borom struggles, and another WR. Is there anything else they can do to improve in post-draft FA? QB Fields RB Montgomery FB Blasingame > RB/WR/TE in subs TE Kmet WR Mooney WR Pringle RT Jenkins LT Borom OC Patrick LG Whitehair RG Jones/Dozier* RB Herbert/Evans WR Jones/Newsome/Moore TE Horsted/O'Shaughnessy For defense, it feels very similar to the offense. If you plug Gordon and Brisker into the starting lineup, the two biggest holes now seem to be SAM and NT. The Bears have a few options at both, but I could see them bringing in some vets to compete in those spots. However, that is really it. The secondary now looks like a strength if you have guys like Graham and Shelley as subs or rotational guys. DE Quinn DE Muhammad/Gipson/Robinson DL Jones/Blackson/Edwards DL Tonga/Alufohai* LB Smith LB Morrow LB Sanborn/Alexander/Avery* CB Johnson CB Gordon S Jackson S Brisker DB Young/Graham For IDL, guys like Hicks, Ogunjobi, Fox, Richardson, and Lotulelei. At LB, you still have Schobert, Hitchens, Barr, Kwiatkoski, Wright or Bostic/Ogletree. Some would fit pretty well in the Sam role. At RG, Schofield is still out there. Eric Fisher is still out there for OT, so are Nate Solder and Daryl Williams. Lastly, at WR, Humphries, Wilson, Beasley are still out there for the slot. Then you have guys like Cole, Sharpe, Hurns, Fuller or Stills on the outside. I would love to see at least one from each group get signed. Bring back Hicks or sign Ogunjobi knowing he may not be available for the first month. Sign one of the LBs, Schofield at RG and someone like Fisher for LT. Then Borom goes back to Swing Tackle. Bring in at least one of those WRs, which would raise the floor of the WR room a notch. The Bears have the 6th most effective cap space, which puts them in a good position to bring in several of these guys. 10 teams have less than $5M, which would basically take them out of bringing in any new players above the league minimum. The Bears could bring in 5 new players, with an average cap hit of $2.5M and still have some operating cash for the season. Even addressing 2-3 of those positions with some vets would make me feel pretty good about the roster going into this season.

A few Bears draftees had some nice RAS scores, which is basically all the measurables. To put it in perspective, Urlacher scored a perfect 10.00 on RAS, man that dude was a beast. For the draft picks, there were several high players and others with high scores in certain areas. Gordon - 9.69 (15th highest Bears player since 1987) Brisker - 9.12 Jones - 7.11 B. Jones - 8.44 Robinson - 9.74 (11th highest Bears player since 1987) Thomas - 8.97 Ebner - 4.80 Kramer - 8.48 Carter - 6.30 Teven Jenkins is 13th. For UDFAs, Teague was 9.84 and Sanborn was 7.28. Teague's is one of the highest grades in the NFL since they started recording RAS in 1987.

Allen is more of a blocking TE that is really good at catching the ball. He is definitely not Horsted in terms of route running and separation, but I could see Allen in a lot of 12 packages. I would be shocked if Sanborn doesn't make the 53 and I would not be surprised to see him starting Week 1 at Sam. He would come out for the Slot Corner in sub packages.

I really hope he surprises everyone and makes Poles look like a genius. If they had him rated over all those other guys, then there was a reason for it. The fear on any of the stats, especially ones that are not receptions, yards, TDs, etc, is how much of that was due to the fact that he was just more developed as an adult man playing against 19 yr old kids? If he ends up just being a returner, then it was a bad pick. If he is a returner but also contributes on offense as at least the WR3/4, then it wouldn't be as bad.

Kittle went in the 5th didn't he? I was just saying there were a lot of guys on the board that could contribute immediately in areas of need. Jones seemed like a reach/project pick, which are normally selected in the later rounds. The Shaheen pick will always be worse, but it was similar in the fact that there were guys on the board in the same round that would've clearly been a better pick.

Yeah, it looks like he wasn't getting an opportunity on offense because he was so valuable on special teams. A catch 22 perhaps. Good catch on the COVID stuff. How many players played several seasons at one school before transferring during COVID? That surely would bring that list way down. I myself have higher hopes for him, but I am not expecting anything crazy. Cohen had 53 receptions for 353 yards his rookie year. I don't think Jones will have that many targets, but something in the mid-30s for receptions and 400+ yards is not out of the question.

I've heard some great things about Jack Sanborn, Chase Allen, Allie Green, and Major Teague. I would not be surprised if Sanborn is a Week 1 starter, he was projected anywhere from the 4th-7th. On The Draft Network, he had a 4th round value (#119). Amari Carter, CB from Miami was also expected to be drafted, TDN had him at #196 (5th Round Value). So I wouldn't be surprised to see Sanborn and one other of Green/Carter - CB, Allen - TE, or Teague - RB make the roster. The rest will easily make the practice squad.

Pix, Check out this article about Jones' age: https://beargoggleson.com/2022/05/06/velus-jones-chicago-bears/

He may end as the new Tanner Gentry or Daniel Braverman.

Interesting article, just using age as a comparison of other WRs that had their breakout year at 23 or later. https://beargoggleson.com/2022/05/06/velus-jones-chicago-bears/ The top 2 WRs on the list are Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson. That's basically it. That is out of 37 WRs in that same group. I understand their point, that an older player is more fully developed, so they have an easier time against 19 and 20 year olds that are still developing. The Bears passed on Abraham Lucas, OT, Christian Harris, LB, Travis Jones, DT, Bernard Raimann, OT, Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dylan Parham, OG, and David Bell, WR. I really hope he works out and proves everyone wrong, otherwise this may end up as Poles' Shaheen pick.