adam

Bears now 4-2 at the bye. The next 3 games are huge before the gauntlet of death starts with GB in Week 11. Week 8 - @ WAS 4-2 (19th - Sagarin Ratings) / 12th DVOA / 8th EPA/P - AVG Rating=13th (DraftKings have Bears -2) Week 9 - @ ARZ 2-4 (23rd - Sagarin Ratings) / 22nd DVOA / 24th EPA/P - AVG Rating=23rd (DraftKings have Bears -1.5) Week 10 - vs NE 1-5 (30th - Sagarin Ratings) / 29th DVOA / 30th EPA/P - AVG Rating=30th (DraftKings have Bears -5.5) The Bears are currently favored in the next 3 games and based on all metrics are the best overall team. WAS's offense is the only elite unit the Bears will face in the next 3 games. WAS defense is 28th. 2-1 or 3-0 should be the outcome of these games and the Bears should go into the GB game at 6-3 or 7-2. MIN x2 (hard to gauge these games, but they should be close, especially if Bears offense continues to improve) W / L GB x2 (always a challenge, but I feel much better about this matchup than before) W / L DET x2 (Without Hutchinson, this defense is nowhere near as intimidating, feels like splitting at a minimum here) W / L SF (Depends on injuries but in SF, I will give it to the 49ers) - L SEA (This feels like a win, especially at home and not having to travel to the PNW). W I am counting 4-4 thru the gauntlet for a 10-7 or 11-6 record depending on how the next 3 games go. That record should get at least a WC spot.

FML:

The @ChicagoBears current streak of 12 games holding an opponent to 21 pts or less dating back to last year is tied for the 9th longest streak since the SB era. There have only been 3 teams in the last 25 years to have a longer streak: 00-01 PHI - 17 games 19-20 BAL - 13 games 07-08 TEN - 13 games Bears Team Record: 16 games from 1993-09-12 to 1994-09-04 It is going to be super challenging to keep this streak going, but 12 games is already in some pretty rare air.

Team Ratings thru 6 weeks: DVOA - 17th (OFF-24th, DEF-6th, ST-12th) Sagarin Ratings - 10th EPA/Diff - 9th (OFF-21st, DEF-2nd) PFF Team Grades - 12th (OFF-22nd, DEF-3rd, ST-25th) Pts Differential - 3rd Some crazy underlying numbers for the Bears team as a whole. Between 9th and 17th with the advanced metrics, average of 12th, which feels about right to me. If you remove the first two weeks (oldest games), they are basically top 5 in every category.

The Keenan Effect - Bears are 4-0 when he plays and 0-2 when he is out. Could be the opponents, but the offense really popped when he got back in the lineup after missing the 2 games.

He is on the Adam Rank Podcast every week, lol. So we get to see him talk about the game. Feels kind of weird now talking weekly to the guy who is either a healthy scratch or dresses but never sees the field. Scott has dressed in every game since Week 2 and has a total of 13 snaps. In comparison, Carter has 124. You would think that Scott would be used in those situations, but I guess he showed last year that if he is thrown the ball, he can't catch it anyway. It is hard for me to believe that him and Mooney are the same size. Whatever it is, Mooney looks taller and stronger.

The teams can choose their bye weeks? I thought this was all done by computers and schedule makers?

PFF Leaders for Week 6: Offense: 1. Williams 87.9 < hello QB1 2. Wright 78.2 < nice to see OL 3. Allen 77.2 4. Jenkins 76.0 < more OL 5. Kmet 74.9 < what does this guy need to do lol Defense: 1. Byard 85.3 < one of the best FA acquisitions this year 2. Sweat 81.5 3. Hicks 78.1 < this is a pleasant surprise 4. Gordon 77.2 5. Edwards 70.5 Only player under 50: Billings 38.0

Bears are 4-2 at the bye.

I agree, they probably had Velus and Scott in that role, but neither of them have very many snaps.

But he was top 3 in rushing for a QB? One other little cool thing I noticed about Caleb, he actually throws the ball away instead of taking a random sack or running out of bounds behind the LOS like Fields used to do. Out of all the frustrating things that Fields did, taking the sack or running out of bounds (for a sack) instead of just tossing it out of bounds always puzzled me.

I would not put it past the Steelers to give Fields the last 2 games before the bye, a total of 8 games, then come out of the bye and give Wilson the next 9 so Fields would just miss playing over 51% of the snaps.

Even with that terrible first game with low raw stats, Williams is still top 15 in most QB categories and hitting the top 10 in a few: 13th Passing Yards 7th Passing TDs 8th Completions 12th First Downs

Williams is the first rookie QB in NFL history to have over 1,300 passing yards, over 8 passing TDs, and over 150 rushing yards in his first 6 games. He has 1,317, 9, and 169. https://stathead.com/tiny/KiDps

I don't think so either, but in Fields last two games he passed for 145 yds and 131 yds. 4 of his 6 starts he has less than 160 passing yards. That is not sustainable. The defense is going to be so burnt out by the end of the year. They have a top 10 drive time but bottom 10 pts off a drive, super inefficient. If not for Fields scrambling and rushing TDs, they would be the worst offense in the league. On paper, they look like a lot like the Giants offense. I think they will give him to the bye with 2 winnable games against the Jets and Giants before the bye. If they lose either of those games, they may consider a change because their schedule gets much harder after the bye. After the bye they have WAS, BALx2, CINx2, KC, and PHI.

If the Bears can beat the Commanders, they then have ARZ and NE, two more games they should be favored in. They could potentially go into the GB game, at home at 7-2, on a 6 game win streak. That would be wild.

Absolutely, with the Division Winner getting the bye, the other 3 North teams could all get a WC slot and would be on the road against the other Division winners. They could all win on the road then we would have GB at MIN and CHI at DET with the current seeding in the Divisional Round. WAS and maybe a healthy SF team seem like the only two teams that could upset that from happening. TB seems like the only team threatening for a WC spot, but they also would be battling it out with ATL for the Division.

Just an underthrow, was supposed to be to the pylon, it looked like he put too much air underneath it.

Yeah, and he is such a great locker room presence. Great extension by Poles.

It feels different. With Trubisky, there was a collective groan from the time he was drafted. Then he hit that wall that he couldn't overcome. Then they drafted Fields, and there was excitement for his potential, and he got really close to living up to it, but for some reason, always fell short. With Williams, this feels different. Waldron may not be a mastermind but he is probably the best OC the Bears have had since Trestman. The skill position players, especially the top 5 of Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet, and Swift are comparable with top 10 teams in the league. The defense has gone 11 months without allowing more than 21 pts. They have only allowed 4 TDs in one game out of the last 19. Stroud's 260 passing yards is the most the Bears have allowed this season thru 6 games. The defense was down 3 starters and their #1 DB sub in Smith and still held Lawrence, Thomas, Kirk, etc in check. This is setting up for long term success, especially with 3 picks in the first two rounds next year. CAR is tied for last but has the hardest SoS, so they are technically 4th, which would give them the 3rd pick in the 2nd round as the tied teams rotate per round. That is pick #35 right now.

The Bears were the only game on, so HQs could have all their attention on one game. How does that one get overturned after it was called a fumble on the field, while the others were almost exactly the same. Once the full games post, I am going to grab all 3 plays and compare. Live, they looked basically the same, player catches the ball, gets 2 feet down, turns upfield, fumbles. Possession and football move, which I thought turning up field was. Also, this seems to punish the defender as Edmunds was too good on that play. I almost want to bet if JAX recovered, they would've left it that way and called it a fumble and recovery for the offense.

I dunno, Wilson tweeted out a victory tweet and Fields did not.

It would honestly be super fun if all of the QBs were good and we had 15-20 years of QB rivalries, like the Rodgers-Manning-Brady-Rivers-BigBen, and you could probably throw Ryan in there. Maye didn't look bad for his first start and they keep throwing Nix back out there.

Olave had the same play, it was allowed to be a catch, fumble, and TD return for the defense. Why does the league hate the Bears so much?

Especially considering the position he plays. He is obviously out for the year, but like you said, he may never play again. Nick Gates is the only player that I found that returned to play after breaking both the tibia and fibula, but he missed 13 months, had a ton of complications, and as an OL, can have a brace on the leg without limiting his production. As a speed Edge player, I don't think that would work for Hutchinson. Out of all the players to lose, he seems like the biggest loss the Lions could possibly have.