adam

Wentz now traded to WAS? Everyone loves Ballard but the guy now doesn't have a 1st Round pick, and the guy he traded it for is no longer on the roster, and they don't have a starting QB. Why does this guy get so much love? The Colts are 42-42 with him as GM. He inherited a team that had 1 losing record in the last 15 years, and now has had 2 of those season under Ballard.

It will be interesting to see what type of deal Mustipher got. That will be telling on the direction at Center. I am good with Horsted, and if you use him properly, he might develop into a sneaky weapon with a real offense. Simmons provides some young depth on the O-Line.

If anything, Lockett is probably available with his age, but what would you be willing to give them for Lockett?

Compared to Seattle, right now, for sure. However, depending on how Seattle drafts, that will look completely different in 2-3 years.

They are going to add several void years to Rodgers deal, so I am sure this year's hit could go as low as the mid-30s which will put them closer to $30M over. Preston Smith would save $12M, Cobb would save $6.7M, Lowry $4M, and Jenkins $4M, that's $26.7M right there. Then they will restructure a few more to free enough for a few min FA vets and the rookie pool, but that's it. They will definitely be going into this season with a worse team unless they somehow strike gold with a few of their draft picks.

The Seahawks/Broncos trade is interesting. If the Bears/Seahawks pulled the trigger last year with the same picks and player positions, it would've looked something like this: Bears get: Wilson and 2021 4th Seahawks get: Fields, Jenkins, Borom, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd, Kmet, Nichols, and Foles I know everyone is talking about how Denver got a steal, but if Seattle drafts a QB at #9 like say Malik Willis, then an OL at #40, then has 2x 1sts and 2x 2nds next year, they can pretty much reset their entire team with 8-10 young players as their new core like they did with Wilson and Wagner's year group. Obviously, it makes sense for both teams at this time, but for the long term, it seems like Seattle has a better shot. Both teams finished 7-10 last year. If Seattle couldn't make it work with Wilson in Seattle, what is going to change in Denver? Chubb is due for a huge extension and the expectation is for Wilson to sign a huge long-term deal in Denver. So is that enough to pass KC, LAC, TEN, and BUF because they won't have any first or second-rounders for the next two years. For the Broncos, they not only have the most difficult path to a SB in the AFC West, they now have a new coaching staff and a new starting QB. So there is zero continuity, and who knows what the defense will look like without Fangio and Von Miller.

Man if we got Zion AND Bell, that would be sweet.

It feels like this has become a really deep draft. If Olave or Johnson are not available at 39, I would love to see Poles trade down. To get back a late 2nd and a 3rd, Poles would need to trade back to between 54-57 (NE, ARZ, DAL, and BUF) who all still have their 3rd rounder in the same range. It would be 39 for 54 & 85 (NE), 55 & 87 (ARZ), 56 & 88 (DAL), or 57 & 89 (BUF). 15-18 slots seems a little steep but it would give the Bears 3 picks in the top 90. For a 2nd and a 4th, Poles can go with CLE at 44/117, BAL 45/118, IND 47/121, or LAC 48/122. Without a 4th, it almost makes more sense to see if you can move down in one of the second group scenarios (say BAL who has 3x 4th rounders) to end up with 45, 71, 118, 148, and 150 in the first 5 rounds. Another scenario is keeping 39, then moving down from 71 in the 3rd to recoup a 4th. If you move down in the 2nd, it's about 5-8 slots for a 4th. In the 3rd, it's about 9-11 slots which seems like a slightly better value. The Bears could slide back to HOU 80/136, IND 82/121, or PHI 83/123. Philly looks like a great candidate as they have a ton of picks. The best scenario would be trading back with 39 AND 71. That could yield something like this: 45, 83, 118, 123, 148, 150 in the first 5 rounds. Very few teams get 6 players in the top 150. If some trades went thru, I would also not be opposed to moving back from 123 or 150 and picking up another late 5th or 6th rounder since the Bears don't have a 7th rounder.

Noteboom, Whitehair, Johnson, Borom, Jenkins? Another possibility is bringing back Daniels to play Center, then going with something like: Noteboom, Whitehair, Daniels, Johnson, Jenkins with Borom as the swing tackle.

Good catch yourself with Gallup. I totally missed him due to the production drop off with the injury. So yeah, Wilson looks even better coming in as a WR3/4 with those numbers. I am not seeing him as a WR1, but as an upgrade at WR3/4 compared to Byrd or Goodwin.

Anything going on of interest? Looks like we have the fastest WR group (ever) with a ton of guys at 4.4 and below. I doubt Olave drops to 39 but some other guys around him surprised with some fast numbers.

I am kinda intrigued by a guy like Cedric Wilson (DAL) as a cheap option with some upside. He was behind Cooper and Lamb whom both saw over 100 targets. With 61 targets, Wilson had 45 receptions for 602 yds and 6 TDs. The same amount of TDs as Lamb, a better Y/R than Cooper, the highest Yds/T and the highest catch% amongst the trio.

oh, hard pass unless he comes in for league min.

Mongo, So is Raimann your pick at #39? The Draft Network and PFF have him going in the 1st.

I am all in on Zion. You put him on a line with Jenkins and you already have a pretty nasty group. Add one more and the rest will follow suit.

Did he stay healthy in KC, I didn't follow him?

Yeah, no way Olave is going 39. If he is still on the board after the first, I can see teams trading up to #33 or #34 to take him, but it's all for fun. I have been doing the no-trade scenario a lot. I keep getting David Bell, WR at #39, Tyler Smith, OL at #71, and at 147 and 149, a lot of options, I went with Montaric Brown, CB from Arkansas, and Tycen Anderson, S from Toledo. At 184, I went with Thomas Booker, DL from Stanford. Besides no first, there is a huge gap between 71 and 147. I have a feeling Poles is going to attempt to trade out of 39 or 71 unless the guy there is a stud, to get a 4th round pick.

Smith, Kitchens, and Walker would be a very solid LB corps.

You nailed in man. I completely agree on Walker, Gallup, Jefferson and Karras. My only changes would be instead of Noteboom and Kearse for $9M, I would go Solder, OT (5M), Desmond King, CB ($2.5M) and Rashard Higgins, WR ($2M) for $9.5M total. That would put you at $30.03M for: Walker, LB Jefferson, DL Hughes and King, CB Karras, C Solder, OT Gallup and Higgins, WR You can replace Solder with Noteboom and save $1M. For Safety, I think they bring back Gipson and DHC. WR before draft: Gallup, Mooney, Higgins, Grant (this actually feels better than ARob, Mooney, Byrd, Goodwin) OL before draft: Jenkins, Whitehair, Karras, Borom, Solder/Noteboom CB before draft: Johnson, Graham, Hughes, King, Vildor, Shelley (Vildor and Shelley from CB2/3 to CB 5/6)

Hitchens makes a ton of sense. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-free-agent-rankings-free-agency Yeah, there are a ton of guys on there with some reasonable salaries if these are accurate: 28. Gallup, WR - $5M 38. Williams, G, $6.67M 42. Smith-Schuster, WR, - $8M 44. Maye, S - $6M 45. Nelson, CB - $7M 46. Jones, C - $6.67M 53. Corbett, G - $9.25M 57. Moses, T - $7.5M 67. Allen, C - $7.25M 76. Jackson, CB - $10M 84. Alford, CB - $5M 86. Barr, LB - $7.25M 87. Collins, DL - $9.25M 89. Fuller, WR - $7M 94. Bozeman, C - $7M 96. Crowder, WR - $4.5M 98. Valdes-Scantling, WR - $10M 100. Douglas, CB - $6.75M 101. Gage, WR - $7.5M 103. Wilson, WR - $6.25M 105. Cole, WR - $6M 106. Woods, S - $5.25M 116. Williams, CB - $2.5M 122. Jones, WR - $6M 125. Berrios, WR - $6.67M 128. Glowinski, G - $6.25M 133. Karras, C - $4.33M 145. Fuller, CB - $5.75M 147. Hughes, CB - $3.25M 149. King, CB - $2.5M 150. Solder, OT - $5M 155. Phillips, DL - $6M 161. Harris, S - $3.5M 165. Nnadi, DL - $5.75M 170. Rhodes, CB - $3M 174. Higgins, WR - $2M 192. Walker, LB - $4M 193. Blythe, C - $1.25M Our FAs that made the list: 10. Robinson, WR - $15M 23. Hicks, DL - $8.5M 40. Daniels, G - $10M 92. Ifedi, G - $6M 113. Dalton, QB - $7.25M 135. Peters, T - $2.5M 171. Nichols, DL - $8M 200. DHC - S - $1.75M

If you think you can get better production for less, he is definitely someone the Bears can move on from.

I expect Poles to do some minor restructuring to give him some additional flexibility in his first year as GM. There are several contracts that he can modify without putting too much money into future years. There are some big ones, but I think only one or two will be considered. Mack, Quinn, Whitehair, and Edwards can all safely be restructured to gain around $10M to this year's cap without putting more than $4-5M on any future cap year, if they need to. Jackson is another candidate if they believe he is a long term answer at FS. The Bears are actually in decent cap shape, and will continually get better year over year as some of the albatross contracts drop off. Next season, the only contracts of concern will be Mack, Quinn, and Jackson, but all of them have an out. Knowing what those outs are, the Bears may NOT want to restructure and kick more dead money into those years. So Whitehair and Edwards make logical targets based on their salaries to gain $2-3M on this year's cap. Here are the outs for Mack, Quinn, and Jackson for next offseason: 2023 Pre-June 1st Cut/Post-June 1st Trade: Mack- $16.9M in CS/$11.6M in DM - So is Mack work $28.5M or can the Bears sign $16.9M worth of players that would have more of an impact? A trade seems like the most likely route (potentially in season?) if anything happens, to gain some draft capital. Otherwise, a straight cut nets you nothing other than some cap space. They may ride with Mack for 2 more years. Quinn- $9.7M in CS/$8.4 in DM - Quinn will cost $18.2M next year and combined with Mack cost $47M against the cap. I don't see that happening, and I think Quinn would be the easier one to move based on his contract. That is my guess. 2023 Post-June 1st Cut: Jackson- $13.1M in CS/$3.9M in DM - I don't like splitting the dead money over two years because you move half of it into the next cap and cant use any cap savings in the main free-agent period), but in this case, it may be worth it. One interesting note, the Bears could do a post-June 1st cut any year, then carry over the difference in cap space to the next season to negate the dead money. So if they really didn't want someone on their roster, and the cap savings was equal to the dead money, they could cut the player, incur half the dead money this year, retain enough cap savings to then negate the dead money on next season's cap. This scenario really opens up a lot of options because you really aren't hitting next year's cap as bad as originally thought (as long as you have carryover). So even with Jackson, just say the Bears cut sling after 2022, but then designate him a post-June 1st cut next offseason. They would take on $3.9M in 2023, but could also gain back $13.1M from what his contract was going to pay him. Now just say they use some of that, but carry over $10M to the 2024 cap. The savings would negate the dead cap and they would actually have $6.1M more cap space in 2024 (not necessarily $3.9M less). Goldman and Cohen would be prime candidates for something like that this year. Instead of trying to make more cap for this season, do post-June 1st cuts on one or both, then carry over most of the cap savings from this year to next year, negating the dead money and increasing the cap next season.

Firstpick.com?

Yeah, I would've probably been better off going SEC BPA instead but I just went with PFF Big Board value. That just happen to be who was there at the pick. I will need to do another one and focus on that a little more.

Oh I should've noted, those were their 2021 valuations, basically what they performed to.