adam

I know we posted some in other threads, but I thought it could use its own with how many we are going to do between now at April. Here is one I did with PFF's Mock Draft Simulator, just one trade down for a 3rd and a 5th. Still picked up Johnson (which is unlikely), but hey. Johnson is a no-brainer if there. Went for great value at #71 and got a great athlete to pair with Smith at LB. Moore becomes the defacto starting Slot WR. Domann is a hybrid LB-DB that can lineup almost anywhere on the defense. With so many sub packages, he would be perfect for big Nickel. Watson is the big WR we have needed, could play opposite of Mooney on the outside. Flott is 6'2" so he has good size and length for the new scheme. Elliss is a 367 lbs DT who could spell Tonga at NT.

Would you pay Robinson $15M after the year he had? Just watch the last two games. Zero effort. That would scare me.

Here is a list of the Bears UFAs, and their OTC Valuations: 1. Nichols - $6.5M - if the Bears view him as a 3T they may consider him 2. Daniels - $6.3M - Up to Poles, does he fit the mold? 3. Mustipher - $4.3M - No way am I paying Mustipher that lol. 4. Bars - $4.1M - Backup OL, not making that much. 5. Robinson - $3M - this is how low his value dropped after last year, but he will still make over $10M on some team. 6. Hicks - $2.4M - age and injury have killed his value, but he will still get paid Guys like Grant, Gipson, etc for some reason don't have a valuation right now.

Poles also said he wasn't going after Tier 1 FAs. So that takes a few of those guys off the list. I like a blended approach and close to Option 3, I think they will go after a mid-tier Center and one other mid-tier FA (could be Daniels), then target one other spot on the line early in the draft. Then you let the best 5 win their positions with Borom in the mix. Glowinski or Cappa seem reasonable, but I guess it will depend on the market. Karras makes a lot of sense too at Center. Zion Johnson would be awesome, but I don't know if he is going to make it to 39. I don't think they re-sign Daniels unless he has a mid-tier price tag. He is still only 24 and was probably hurt a little by the revolving clown car door on the O-Line which had him switching positions over the last few years.

Kamara has only lined up as a 3-4 OLB, so it was a toss-up to put him in with the DEs or the 4-3 OLBs. I just left him there assuming he probably will end up on the PS. The D-Line positions are going to be interesting. I think Nichols can play 3T, but that position is one of the most important one in this scheme. If he underperforms, the entire defense does. If he comes in around $6M, I would probably do it. For the safeties, as long as they aren't afraid to tackle, I am good. We have missed good tackling for our safeties since Amos left.

The vet minimum contracts do count against the cap if they are within the top 51 salaries on the team. There are two things at the team's disposal, the Minimum Salary Benefit (MSB) and the Four-year qualifying contract. The first one makes the vet minimum contract only count against the cap like a player with 2 less years (saves a couple hundred K per player). The second one allows a team to sign a player or two to a qualifying contract and the team can sign them for up to $1.25M more than the cap hit. So traditionally, these savings only amount to $1-2M per year and rarely more than that.

The loss of a 1st and 4th this year was due to Fields, so I am not bothered too much by that as I would rather have Fields than Toney, Jamar Johnson, and whoever the Giants will pick at #7 and in the 4th Round this year. The Bears also gained a little back by getting a 5th for a 7th in the Miller trade. The only other lost pick on the books is a 2023 6th for Grant. Hopefully, the Bears can re-sign him so that trade is not a complete waste. If Poles targeted guys are not there at 39, I can see him trading back for some additional picks. Having some extra to play with would be very nice (in a Quinn, Foles, or Jackson trade).

He is pretty cheap too at $10.6M. 2022 is his last year, so the team that traded for him could potentially get a comp pick down the road if he signed a decent deal with another team in 2023.

There are several teams that could use him: Denver, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Washington, Cleveland, Houston, and the NY Giants. The Bears could use the cap space, and then sign a backup QB that is better suited to backup Fields.

Trevathan is immovable (thanks Pace). He would cost $3.2M more to cut than to have on the roster. You could consider a post-June 1 cut, but then you are pushing dead cap into 2023. I don't think Poles is going to do that because they are not in a win-now mode for 2022. It's going to take at least 2 offseasons (2022 and 2023) to get this roster converted to fit the team's vision. So it doesn't make sense to incur dead money in future years unless it is the difference between signing a top guy to a long-term deal or not.

So I did some deeper digging and came up with this scenario: If the Bears only cut Goldman, Attaochu, and Cohen, they will have about $33M to spend after the rookie pool and need 18 more players. My assumption is they will have at least 2 UDFAs make the roster (need 16 more) and possibly bring back 7 guys (need 9 more) from last year who are not currently signed. Those 7 guys would cost around $10M to bring back based on last year's salaries (James, Holtz, Horsted, Bars, Ogletree, DHC, and Grant). So after UDFAs and those 7, the Bears would need 9 more players. I figure 4 guys will come in as vet min deals, 2 on offense and 2 on defense, leaving 5 key free agents for approximately $19M. $37M ~ 23 players Rookie Pool $4.4M (5 players) $33M ~ 18 players UDFAs: not counted on top 51 (2 players) Resignings: $10M (7 players) Vet Min: $4M (4 players) Key FAs: $19M for 5M/5M/3M/3M/3M (5 players) ~ Poles can backload some of these to make this year's cap hit not be so high. You can easily flex out of resignings and into vet minimums if you don't agree with those and it ends up relatively the same cost. This scenario does not account for any restructures or additional cuts or trades. I am sure Poles will make some additional space as needed for in-season moves or to free up a little more to sign someone of high interest. Here is something I didn't know: Only 26 players on the 2021 roster made more than $1M, 15 made between $800K and 999K, and 12 made under $800K. So the bottom 27 averaged $850K and took up only $23M of the cap. If you project similar numbers to 2022. The Bears have 15 players making more than $1M (not counting the 3 cuts); so simple math says they will bring on approximately 11 more players who will make more than $1M. I figure that will include the 2nd and 3rd rounders, the 5 key FA additions and 4 of the resigned players (Grant, James, Ogletree, and DHC). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The roster then looks something like this: QB: Fields, Foles RB: Monty, Herbert, RB3 TE: Kmet, James, Horsted, Holtz (TE4/RB4) WR: WR1, Mooney, WR3, Newsome, Webster (KR) C: C1, Bars (L/G3) LG: Whitehair, LG2 RG: RG1, Borom (RG2/RT2) LT: Jenkins, LT2 RT: RT1, RT3 DT: DT1, Tonga, Blackson, Edwards DE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Snowden MLB: Trevathan, Ogletree S/WLB: Smith, SLB, WLB2, Johnson, Kamara CB: Johnson, CB2, Graham, Shelley, Vildor, DB6 FS: Jackson, DHC SS: SS1, SS2 K: Santos P: Winslow LS: Brinkley * Key acquisitions in bold (7) * Italics are not roster locks and can be easily replaced with min deal players (8) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I feel like the 2nd and 3rd rounders and the 5 key FAs need to be starters. They have to replace ARob (WR1), Mustipher (C1), Daniels (RG1), Hicks (DT1), Nichols (DT2), Gipson (SS1), with an upgrade needed at CB2. If you consider OT a need for Borom or Jenkins, then you have to remove one of the other spots, probably DT2 as part of the top 7. So the question is, what are your top 7 holes to fill this offseason using the 2nd and 3rd rounder, and 5x mid-tier FA signings? I am going with (in no order): WR1, C1, RG1, DT1, SS1, CB2, and RT1 (replacing DT2). That would overhaul the O-Line with 3 new players and a new top WR. On defense, they get a solid CB2, SS1, and DT1 as upgrades. I would feel pretty good about the roster going into 2022 if constructed like that, and Poles can restructure to bring in a bigger fish if he wants to as the Bears will be in a great cap situation in 2023 and beyond.

Yeah that's the route I hope they go, cut Cohen, use money on Grant. Herbert and Newsome can handle KOs.

There is one thing to consider with dead cap. The Bears can decide that a player is not going to be in their long-term plans or in the window that they are projecting a SB run (23-25). My assumption is Poles and Eberflus don't think they are coming in Year 1 and competing for a SB. They may say that but it's hard for me to believe that they are planning for it with the roster. If that is the case, as long as they do pre-June 1st cuts or trades, no dead cap goes into future years like post-June 1 cuts or trades do. So the guys that you can cut pre-June 1st with cap savings and have no residual impact to the 2023 cap and beyond are (dead money): 1. Goldman $6.6M ($5.1M) 2. Quinn $4.4M ($12.7M) 3. Mack $3.15M ($27M) 4. Foles $3M ($7.66M) - if traded pre-June 1st - $8M savings ($2.66M) 5. Montgomery $2.79M (261K) 6. Cohen $2.25M ($3.5M) 7. Blackson $2.1M ($1M) 8. Attaochu $1.9M ($1.2M) 9. Jackson - if traded pre-June 1st - $1.53M ($13.5M) For Quinn, the only logical thing is a trade that pockets you a couple of early-round picks (2nd and 3rd) and gives you $4.4M in cap savings to sign a decent mid-tier vet. To me, having Mack-Gipson + an extra 2nd rounder + extra 3rd rounder + $4.4M vet is easily better than Mack-Quinn-Gipson in 23-25. The draft would look so much better with 2x 2nds and 2x 3rds. I would even consider a 2nd and a 4th for Quinn at this point. However, I doubt it happens. Foles and Jackson are somewhat interesting in that their dead money and cap savings change from cut to trade. A Foles trade would be HUGE for Poles, literally a $5M difference and $8M in cap space overall. This trade has to happen. If the coaching staff doesn't believe in Jackson, a pre-June 1st trade is not out of the question. $13.5M in dead cap, but you don't have to worry about his cap impacts in 23 and 24 when his cap hits get bigger AND he is off the roster in 2022. Another thing to consider, Jackson's pay is already in the cap space, so it's not like the Bears are adding $13.5M to the current number. A pre-June 1st trade would free up $1.5M and a roster spot from the current cap. OTC's valuation of Jackson has him at $1.3M. So saving $1.5M is actually a win. Goldman is an easy cut (OTC Valuation = 420K), Cohen and Attaochu seem like two other somewhat easy ones. You save almost $11M cutting those 3, and there is pretty much zero drop ofif in roster production. You can sign 2x mid-FAs for $5M each and vet min guy for $1M with that money.

If you can only have one. Who are you signing/keeping as the Bears Do-it-all Player? 1. Grant is a FA, was pretty dynamic on punt returns and flashed some skills on offense (albeit in a small sample size, 9 rec, 139 yds and 2 TDs). He will probably be seeking a deal similar to his last one, 2-3M per year. So do you bring Grant back for $2-3M a year as the primary PR with some potential offensive snaps? 2. Cohen has the 8th highest cap hit on the team for 2022 and basically hasn't played in 2 years. He has a $5.75M cap hit in 2022, and his cap hit balloons to $7.5M in 2023. If you cut him pre-June 1, you save $2.25M and have $3.5M in dead money. Post-June 1 you save $4M and have only $1.75M dead money, but that cap space can't be used until June 1st. He caught 150 balls in 19 & 20 and scored 8 TDs receiving as his role seemed to shift to more of a receiver in 2019 before getting hurt in 2020. Do you bring him back for $5.75M and hope he is back to 100% after two years off or cut him? 3. Patterson flourished in Atlanta after getting out of the Nagy offense and was literally a jack-of-all-trades player with 618 rushing yards, 548 receiving yards, and 434 Kickoff Return yards (lowest of his career). He had as many offensive touches in 2021 (205) as he had in the last 4 seasons and also scored a career-high 11 TDs. He will probably get $4-6M on the FA market, but will he want to return kickoffs full time? Would you sign him as the "Adjustor"? 1. Grant for $2-3M (could use the $2.25M cap savings from Cohen and pay less than league minimum out of pocket). 2. Cohen for $5.75M 3. Patterson for $4-6M, roughly the same price as Cohen (could cost $2-4M out of pocket if you cut Cohen and used the savings)

Very cool, I didn't know that.

I agree, I just don't know if they would do that. It would have to be a return that compensates for that loss in cap space. A 2nd and a 3rd, as long as they become starters would be worth it. Instead of paying Quinn, the dead cap + rookie salary evens out.

Quinn is immovable this year. The Bears would take on $12.7M dead money by trading him. Jackson isn't going to last very long on this defense. Can you imagine Poles, Ebferflus, and Williams going thru game tape and watching Jackson's effort on 90% of the plays? They may cut him after watching Week 3. I agree on Goldman, he must've sat on his ass for a year in that year off. He should've been hitting the gym and came back a ripped monster. I would cut him before FA starts so you free up the $6.6M to sign a real NFL player. I don't know if the defense is really going to take a hit. Mack is the key. If he is healthy and playing with fire, he is a game wrecker. He is a more natural DE than OLB, same with Quinn. Mack had 6 sacks in 7 games, and was limited in the game he got hurt. So in the 6.5 games, he had 6 sacks. Eberflus and Williams did more with less in Indy. I think they will find the role players to plug in. It's going to come down to OL Protection and Fields development. If he is who his stats say he is, we are in trouble.

I believe he is the longest-tenured Bear and made $1.75M last year. The Bears just signed Ryan Winslow who was a UDFA with the Bears in 2018. Could this be the end of Mega Punt? The Bears also signed long snapper Beau Brinkley, which could also spell the end for Patrick Scales ($1.13M). Between these guys and the vet min, they could save about $1M in cap space between the 2.

I don't know about flourish, but he will definitely be better than he was last year. I think he is no longer a fringe WR1. Probably a good WR2, but will need a big dog to take some of the coverage away from him. He can't separate and struggled with contested catches last year, which was really his only game.

Yeah I posted some quick math: It wasn't perfect, but I was just proving a point that it looks deceiving but his targets were down because 1. The Bears threw less, 2. he missed 5 games, was limited in 1, and didn't care in the last two.

I feel like they will address Safety in FA for sure. Malik Hooker who played under Eberflus in Indy and will only be 26 this year. Hooker played on DAL this year, and all of their top 4 Safeties are free agents: Hooker, Kearse, Kazee, and Neal.

What about Blackson? He was better than I expected. If you cut Goldman, you should have enough to bring in a starter at NT or LB with the cap savings. So I would rather have a new starter on defense than Goldman.

If the Bears feel Thomas Graham can play CB2, I am thinking they are going to go all-in on offense this offseason and only fill the holes on defense with guys on one year deals. Would you be ok with going 2 OL and 1 WR with the first 3 picks?

Yeah, it is a great read. Most we already knew or felt, but here are some nuggets: - Accuracy was bad regardless of whether he was under pressure or not. Partially on him and partially on lack of reps, and partially on lack of protection. - Great 10 yards and beyond, terrible inside 9 yards. So great at the hard things, terrible at the easy things. Hopefully coaching and being in sync with receivers will help this. - Play Action - deepest target depth and best big-time throw % and 3rd lowest % of turnover worthy plays. Better with play-action than without it. - Pressure from Center was 32nd, Mustipher has to be replaced. - Time to throw correlates with the deeper throws, if he throws shorter passes, he won't get sacked as much. Just with getting better protection, in sync with receivers, and a better game plan will make Fields perform how we expected him to.

He is one of the bigger frauds, I have no clue why anyone would follow him other than for comic relief.