adam

AZ, you are correct, it's ultimately about roster construction. They were just depicting one fact about those rosters, all but one had an RB on a big contract. It's not to say the RBs on those rosters weren't productive or their production wasn't needed. It was just showing that the actual SB winners all had RBs on rookie deals or smaller vet contracts. That is a pretty solid argument not to pay any RB over $5-6M. O-Line and QB are the keys for sure. Look what happened to Burrow and Mahomes last year. We got Fields, we need to address O-Line first. Another reason not to put money in places of low value.

What I find ironically comical is the fact that he calls his site Sports Mockery, he ain't lying there! He is just a news aggregator but spins the titles just enough to make it his own then referencing the source in the article. Pretty funny when he falls for the fake news postings. There is so much misinformation out there, besides the actual beat writers, the only other legitimate blogger that has been Jeff Hughes, aka @dabearsblog. He nailed the GM, HC and several of the assistant hirings. At one point the beat writers were using him as a source lol.

There are a few guys they could bring on for near vet minimum deals. He is one of them. Him and Byrd were signed for the same amount last year.

Lemon, You are spot on, we lose some DL spots with the Edge guys moving to DE and gain some LB spots going from 2x ILB to 3 LB. We definitely need some bigger corners that are good in zone coverage and another mobile LB to play Will or Mike.

If you want more data that supports not extending Monty, check this out: 2013 is the only bogus one because BeastMode was on the team, but Harvin outrushed him in the SB. However, outside of him (he made $7M), none of these other guys was making a lot of money, which allowed the team to address other positions with that cap space. If you sign an RB to a big second contract, it rarely works out. Also remember that Cohen is making $5.7M, 2x more than any RB on this list. Monty is going to command more.

Some other guys: Russell Gage - ATL, 66-770, 4 TD Jamison Crowder - NYJ, 51-447, 2 TD Kalif Raymond - DET, 48-576, 4 TD - Also a PR Braxton Berrios - NYJ, 46-431, 2 TD - Also a KR/PR Cedric Wilson - DAL, 45-602, 6 TD Byron Pringle - KC, 42-568, 5 TD - Also a KR Adam Humphries - WAS , 41-383 Zach Pascal - IND, 38-384, 3 TD Every guy on this list had as many receptions as ARob in 2021. I wouldn't mind 2x of these guys, one of the true slot WRs and another outside guy to go with Mooney. Replace Byrd and Goodwin, then draft ARobs replacement. In the mock draft sims I keep doing there is always a good value WR available at 37 and 71.

Yeah, we would've drafted Donald, but he got picked one spot in front of Fuller and the funny thing was even the Rams passed on him, using their 2nd pick of the 1st round to draft him. I still don't know how he fell out of the top 10. He should've won MVP last night. The Rams defense won the game and if not for a non-call on the 75-yd TD pass to Higgins, the game would not have even been that close. Rams should've won by a lot more but McVay and Stafford did their best to keep the Bengals in it. McVay literally turned into Nagy. If the Rams were playing KC or BUF, they easily lose this game. For some reason, he kept running Akers, Michel, and Henderson for literally no gain after no gain. Then you have Stafford who did what he always does, has some nice throws but also threw 2 picks that should've been the difference in the game. However, the Rams defense held the Bengals to 11 yds on 8 plays to settle for a FG. That was the game right there. If they scored a TD there, it puts them up 24-13 and they probably win or at least force OT. No one can say that a defense can't win a championship, because that is what the Rams did. It was not McVay's offense, but I will say they didn't have Woods or Higbee, and lost Beckham, and still won. Then the refs decided to get involved. Did call anything really all game, no offensive holding, no illegal contact, then all of a sudden on the last Rams drive of the game, penalty after penalty. For the Bengals, it was a cool story, but good luck getting back to the big one with KC, BUF, TEN, and LAC all probably better teams than you are fighting for the same spot in the AFC. This year any of the 8 top teams could've won. TEN lost by 3 to CIN who got to face a rusty Henry coming off injury. BUF lost to KC in OT, then KC lost to CIN by 3. In the NFC, TB lost by 3 to LAR, GB lost to SF by 3, and SF lost to LAR by 3. 6 out of the last 7 NFL playoff games were decided by 3 pts and the 7th one was OT.

I really like Monty, great player, hard worker, but with what Herbert did when he was out with the same O-Line, team, scheme, etc showed enough to take a risk at RB. Here are some comparisons: # of games started: Monty - 13, Herbert - 4 # of touches: Monty - 267, Herbert - 117 # of games with 70+ rushing yards: Monty - 4, Herbert - 4 # of games with 20+ carries: Monty - 6, Herbert - 5 # of games with a play longer than 20 yds: Monty - 5, Herbert - 5 So Monty basically had 3x the number of games started, over 2x the touches, but the same amount of big games and big plays. To me you just can't afford to sink money in RB where you take away from another position of need because it might come down to Monty vs CB2. With Cohen making $5.7, and with Monty's production, I just don't see the Bears even offering him a contract. They may not trade him and let him play out his rookie deal, then let him walk, but I don't see them extending or resigning him. For another comparison, look at what Rashard Penny did in Seattle in the last 5 weeks of the season. 4x games with over 135 yds rushing, the last two games were 170 and 190 with 6 TDs in those 5 weeks. Penny was playing on the 4th year of his rookie deal. Sony Michel had very similar stats to Monty and had a 1-yr deal for $1.7M. If the Bears do trade Monty, I could see them signing a vet for a one or two-year deal for $3-4M. Here are the list of RBs that are current UFAs that made less than $4M this year: Richard, Lindsay, Fournette-812, Mostert, Penny, White, Michel-845, Wilson, Mack, Bolden, Jones, Brown, Conner-752, McKissic, Williams(KC)-558, and Williams (CHI) all made between $3.5M and $1.5M.

Brown or Armstead, then someone like Karras would be awesome. You could slide Borom inside and go with Armstead/Whitehair/Karras/Borom/Jenkins. Based on what Poles wants in his O-Linemen and team, I don't think they are signing Daniels or Mustipher.

I am thinking Attaocho is gone. He has a $3.1M cap hit and they could save $1.9M by cutting or trading him prior to June 1st. Post June-1st cut saves $2.7M with only 400K dead money. Snowden should see more time behind Quinn as a DE. The Bears lack the traditional 4-3 LBs. If Smith is going to be Darius Leonard, then he is going to be the Will. That would put Trevathan in the Mike leaving the Sam open. Even though they say the switch is no big deal (from 3-4 to 4-3), the one place it does impact is roster construction because Edge guys go from LBs to DL, so you ultimately shrink your DL from 3 spots to 2 and your ILBs go from 2 to 3 full time LBs. So the Bears need to grow some LBs and change some of their IDLs. Now the Bears need a true 3-Tech and NT. What can Goldman play? Blackson was a pleasant surprise down the stretch, can he play 3-tech? Mario Edwards? I know they talk about making a scheme to fit the players, but if we truly are going to a 4-3 base, we don't really have the personnel at this time. Depending on where Smith plays (M or W), you need the other one, Trevathan can probably play M, but I am concerned about his ability to drop back into the seam on passing plays. Then we still need a Sam. For the D-Line, Hicks would be great as the 3-Tech, but we would need a better NT. Tonga is good as a backup, but Goldman is not a NT or 3T.

Somehow Poles and Co revamped the entire KC O-Line in one offseason and literally had 7-8 starter caliber players in that room to start the season with less cap to work with than the Bears have this year. However, I hope he is better at the cap than his Veach and Pace. Interesting to look at the KC cap for this year compared to the Bears, here are their top 5 players in terms of cap hit: 1. Mahomes $35.8M 2. Jones $29.4M - IDL 3. Clark $26.3M - Edge 4. Hill $20.6M - WR 5. Thuney $17.8M - LG Top 5: $129.9M ~ 62.4% of total cap 1. Mack $30.1M - Edge 2. Quinn $17.1M - Edge 3. Jackson $15M - FS 4. Whitehair $12.3M - LG 5. Goldman $11.8M - IDL Top 5: $86.3M ~ 41.5% of total cap KC has 5 players making more than every player on the Bears roster outside of Mack. With Frank Clark making $26M, Mack's $30M doesn't look that bad, and Quinn's $17M is a steal. Whitehair making $5M less than Thuney and Goldman (even for how bad he played) making $17M less than Jones. Then we have Mahomes out of his rookie deal compared to Fields on Year 2. The Bears are in so much better shape than the Chiefs right now in terms of cap space.

So Fields, Jenkins/Borom, Mack/Quinn/Gipson, Johnson/Graham/?, Smith/Trevathan/?, Jackson? Hole to fill: CB2/3 Upgrades are needed: OT, CB2/3, ILB2 and potentially FS. Pretty hard not to include WR1 in that. So I still think it is OT, CB, WR as the top 3.

Karras would be an upgrade over Mustipher for sure. Overthecap has him at $6M for 2021: https://overthecap.com/player/ted-karras/4934/ Probably something in the range of 3/20 would do it.

Associate Head Coach is a big deal. It almost seems like Carroll will just turn the team over to Desai when he is ready to retire. Great hire for Seattle.

Here are the unit DVOAs for offense and defense for our OC and HC/DC's former teams over the last two years: OFF DVOA GB 2021 - 2nd (CHI - 26th) 2020 - 1st (CHI - 25th) DEF DVOA IND 2021 - 8th (CHI - 13th) 2020 - 7th (CHI - 8th) So the hope is the defense can stay relatively close to top 10 while the offense at least jumps inside the top 15.

Interestingly enough, he had more time as a position coach than Nagy did before becoming an OC. Getsy had 2 years as the GB WR's Coach, went to Mississippi State for 1 year as their OC, then came back to GB with LaFleur as their QB Coach where he did that for 3 more years. Nagy only had 3 years total as a position coach before becoming an OC. Getsy is a former QB who actually led the Akron Zips to their first bowl game (ever). He also was a UDFA for SF in 2007, then went right into coaching. So he has been coaching at the collegiate or pro level since 2009 (13 yrs). Nagy had only 7 years of coaching before becoming the Bears HC and only 5 before becoming the KC OC. Getsy was credited in grooming Davante Adams as his WR Coach in 2016 and 2017. In Adams' first two years in the league, he totaled 88 receptions for 929 yds and 4 TD. In 2016 that jumped to 75 receptions and 997 yds and 12 TDs under Getsy. In 2017, he made his first of 5 straight Pro Bowls. Getsy was hired by McCarthy, then again by LaFleur. Very similar to how Eberflus was hired by McDaniels, then retained by Reich. They are not good ole boy hires. Look at GBs record with Getsy on staff, the one year he was in Mississippi State, the Packers went 6-9-1 and their lowest win total since 2008. 2018 was even worse than 2017 when Brett Hundley got 9 starts. In 2018, Rodgers started every game and the Packers still finished with 6-9-1 wins, which is what got McCarthy ultimately fired.

Nyheim Hines is making $6.2M as an RB2, hell Cohen is making $5.7M and has yet to play on that contract. Interestingly enough, there is a huge gap between the top backs and everyone else. There are 8 backs making $12M or more per year (McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Cook, Henry, Chubb, Jones, and Mixon). Then only two backs are making between $6.5M and $11.9M (Gordon $8M, Barkley $7.8M). I can't see Monty taking RB2/Cohen money ~6-7M and I can't see the Bears paying him $12M. Maybe they can find a common number like $8M but that still seems high considering the other holes you have to fill. When I think of offensive value, it is QB is #1, then LT, then probably WR1 and the rest of the O-Line, then TE, WR2 and RB all in the last tier. The team should be putting most of their assets in QB, WR1, and the O-Line first.

Yes, and WRs. All correlated too.

That's what got me on this kick. I haven't heard anything like what Getsy has said from other OC's before.

This is Monty's 4th year, he is a UFA after this season so you can't trade him next year. That's why you have to consider trading him now, otherwise, your only hope is to get a comp pick for him depending on the FAs the Bears would acquire next offseason. The Bears have to plan for the 2023-2025 window now. That would be Fields Year 3-5. Who is on the team now that will be part of that run? That is the question for Monty. Since his contract is up this year, he will be looking for a deal similar to the other RBs that have gotten deals around $12M per year. I just don't see the Bears paying him that much. This was his 2nd season with a YPC under 4. 3.8 this year and 3.7 his rookie year. Jordan Howard was traded to Philly after his 3rd year and his 3.7 YPC. Howard had 935 yards that season, Monty had 849 this season. The Bears got a 6th for Howard, could've been a 5th but Howard only played in 10 games for Philly that year and has never appeared in more than 7 games a year since. So the options are to keep Monty for this year and let him walk after the 2022 season as a UFA and hope for a comp pick in 2024 (unlikely due to FA acquisitions in 2023), extend Monty thru the Fields window for $12M per year, or trade him now for a mid to late-round pick in the 2022 or 2023 draft. I really feel the best option is to trade him now and recoup some draft capital for the 2022 draft. Thoughts?

If Getsy or Williams are getting interviews for HC positions in a few years, that means good things are happening in Lake Forest.

*WARNING LONG POST* The Bears recent history with OCs is one of the main reasons why this team has struggled and caused so many HCs to be fired (Lovie). It has been ugly. It could be tied to the run on bad QB play, but it also could be the reason for that bad QB play. The last OC to be in position more than 2 years was Ron Turner from 2005-2009. Before Turner, you have to go back to Turner's first stint with the Bears (93-96) to find an OC that was in position for 4 years. So in the last 30 years, Ron Turner is the only OC who was in position for 4 years. John Shoop somehow lasted 3 years. He is the only other OC to be in position longer than 2 years in that window. Every other OC in the other 20 years of that timeframe only lasted 1 or 2 years. I didn't realize how bad it was. Now it would be different if these guys were being promoted or hired as HCs, but most of these guys were fired for being bad and never held a position of OC again. So there is definitely a chance that Getsy, Fields, and the Bears offense fails. However, I am extremely optimistic that Getsy is the right guy at the right time and comes in with some great experience from GB. I know it is Aaron Rodgers, but he just won back-to-back MVPs and his QB Coach was Getsy. So even if Getsy didn't impact that, he got to see it first hand. Not that Bears fans don't already know this but look at how bad the OC and play-callers have been for the Bears over the last 20+ years: 1a. Nagy and Lazor (20-21). Lazor was an analyst at Penn State when he was hired as OC by the Bears. He actually was OC for 2 years with CIN and 2 with MIA previously, so on paper, he was probably one of the best hires for Nagy. However, his best offense was his first season with Miami where they were 11th in pts and 14th in yards with Tannehill as QB in 2014. In his other 3 seasons his offenses were in the bottom 3rd of the league. Everyone knows Nagy's story, he was a full-time OC for one season and he only called 5 games in the regular season and 1 in the playoffs before being hired by the Bears as the HC. That was a whiff, Frank Reich and Matt Lafleur were both candidates in that hiring cycle. In the last two years, the offense was in the bottom 10 in both pts and yards with Nagy and Lazor running the offense. 1b. Nagy and Helfrich (18-19). Before the Bears, Helfrich never coached in the NFL. His main influence was Chip Kelly. How did Chip Kelly do in the NFL? The offense Oregon ran was so different than what Nagy had in KC, it didn't make much sense at the time, and makes less sense now. The offense got incredibly lucky in 2018 with the defense giving them so many short fields, it really masked how bad the offense really was. That was on full display in 2019 when the offense finished as the 3rd worst Bears offense since 2004 with the offensive mastermind Nagy at the helm. Helfrich has been unemployed since 2019. 2. Dowell Loggains (16-17). Low-gains! The Kevin James/Paul Blart look alike. The Bears were 8-24 with Loggains as OC. Just a terrible team and OC. He may have been the worst OC ever and that says a lot. Where are you Terry Shea? 2017 was the 2nd worst offense since 2004, Trubisky's rookie year. I think the Bears broke Trubisky. Somehow this guy was given another OC job with Adam Gase twice, once in MIA, then in NYJ. Shocker, the offenses were terrible. He hasn't coached in the NFL since that stint with Gase and the Jets. 3. Adam Gase (2015). Gase reminds me a lot of Nagy. He was brought to the Bears by Fox, who left Denver (ala Reid-Nagy). Gase lucked into being the OC when Manning was on the Broncos. Then when he came to the Bears, the offense was no different than it was the year before (same rankings in yards and pts). However, that was enough to land him a HC job in Miami. Then when he was fired after 3 years, the Jets thought he was good enough for them and hired him the next year. Somehow this boob was a NFL HC for 5 straight years but hasn't coached in any capacity since. Gase was the only OC to ever get promoted to HC from the Bears as far as I can tell. 4. Aaron Kromer (13-14). The only OC under Trestman. The Bears had a stacked offense in 2013 with Cutler, Forte, Jeffery, Marshall, and Bennett. Pretty unbelievable how that fell apart so fast in 2014 and Trestman/Kromer were gone like that. Just two years for Trestman and Kromer. Kromer is still in the NFL as the BUF OL Coach but has never held an OC position since. 5. Mike Tice (2012). Lovie's last year as HC. He kept juggling OCs and Tice was not good. They really could've used a TE (Olsen) and the offense is what got Lovie fired. Tice never held an OC or HC position again. 6. Mike Martz (10-11). He traded Greg Olsen (I still hate him for that) and tried to plug his greatest show on turf offense into the Bears without the players to do it. He was only OC for 2 years and even though the team made the NFCC game, the offense was actually really bad and regressed under Martz. He never coached in the NFL again. 7. Ron Turner (05-09). Turner got the offense turned around in his 2nd season where the Offense peaked in 2006, the SB year. That tailed off quickly with relatively the same personnel in the next two years. He lasted 4 years under Lovie, but the offense was always the problem. He never had another OC or NFL HC job again. 8. Terry Shea (2004). OC'd the only Bears offense that was 32nd in points and yards, Lovie's first year. He was probably the sacrificial lamb because his QBs were Grossman, Hutchinson, Krenzel, and Quinn. All 4 started games and they totaled 9 Passing TDs on the season. Quite unbelievable. This was the only time in franchise history that the Bears finished last in both pts and yards. Shea never held another NFL coaching position higher than QB coach after this. 9. John Shoop (01-03). The 2nd Dick Jauron hire. Actually had a decent first season with Jim Miller at QB, but the offense quickly devolved to one of the worst in the league the next 2 years before he and Jauron were fired. This offense was famous for the dink and dunk. He got one more shot as OC on the 2-14 Raiders in 2006 for the last 5 games of the season (Nagy-esque) on the last Raiders team to finish 32nd in pts and yards. He never coached in the NFL after that. 10. Gary Crowton (99-2000). Jauron's first OC. The offense ranked 25th and 28th in pts the 2 seasons with Crowton. He never coached in the NFL again. That is 23 years and only one top 10 offense in pts and yards, in 2013 with Trestman/Kromer (2nd/8th). The Bears were 2nd in pts and 15th in yards in 2006, but the scoring was due to the short fields the defense was giving the offense. The Bears had a similar team in 2018 with Nagy as they finished 9th in pts but 21st in yards. So we could blame the GMs and QBs for this ineptitude, but you have to place some blame on the OCs and playcallers. We just have not gotten this position right in a very long time. My hope is Getsy is the guy and we can get a few years with him before he jumps to a HC position. If he does, that means the Bears are making strides on offense with Fields.

Oh sure, especially when comparing where the outgoing regime was just a short time ago. However, if you go back to the Nagy intro, his OC was Mark Helfrich, who had never coached in the NFL at that point. Fangio was obvious the key, but he wasn't hired, he was retained. If you look back, the staff Nagy hired was completely random dudes and outside of Fangio and maybe Tabor, pretty underwhelming. Also, it was pretty interesting that none of Nagy's OCs ever went on to become HCs anywhere. Helfrich, Lazor, and even DeFilippo have gotten jobs anywhere else at OC or HC. Getsy may be the best OC we have since Ed Hughes in the 80s. Alan Williams seems like a future HC. I hope the Bears can keep the same staff intact for at least 2-3 years before these guys get hired as HCs.

I was pleasantly surprised at how many guys switched teams without needing to, just to work with Eberflus. A few guys mentioned that.

Some great press conferences from Getsy, Williams, and Hightower. This feels soooo much better than with Nagy.