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adam

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  1. adam

    Draft Simulation

    For the draft, the Bears are 7th now, tied with CAR and SEA. Based on the other teams it doesn't look like they will get lower than 6th or higher than 8th. So the 2nd rounder, their first pick will be 38-40.
  2. I don't even care about the outcome, but a win has to feel good for the guys. It has been a long season, especially the last two months, so to go into Seattle, under those weather conditions and pull out a win was actually pretty impressive. Even with some of the mind-boggling play calling, they overcame Nagy, the weather, and the Seahawks. What Quinn is doing, without Mack and Hicks is beyond impressive. He also had another TFL. 1 more sack and he sets the franchise record, and he can do it in 16 games, so there is no asterisk. Roquan got 7 more solo tackles and 2 TFLs. I still can't believe he didn't make the Pro Bowl. He is the only LB in the NFL with 80+ solo tackles, multiple sacks and TFLs, an INT AND a TD. Eddie Jackson didn't have a PD, but made 6 tackles, so that was nice. However, nothing about his play or presence makes me think he is worth even half of what he is earning. On one play, he comes up to cover a WR, then immediately gives him 5 yards of space while the ball is being thrown to him, to then make the tackle. Very bizarre coverage. Vildor is still absolutely terrible and should not be playing. Graham made one mistake but had another PD and Burns had 2. Graham has only played in two games, if this is the worst he is going to be, Johnson and him are the two starting CBs next year. Big whiff on the coaching staff not to see his potential. Overall, the defense played pretty good outside of 3-4 plays. Two long Penny runs, and the TDs to Metcalf and Everett. No Mack, no Hicks, no Johnson, no Goldman, no Edwards, so not bad considering the players on the field. On offense, Foles did just enough to win the game. The best thing he did outside of the game winning drive was not turning the ball over. Byrd and Graham tied for best catches, Byrd's a 2pt conversion and Graham's box out TD catch. Dazz Newsome caught his first NFL pass. Kmet has now caught at least 3 passes in 9 out of the last 10 games. Unfortunately, the Bears are 2-8 over that same span. He now has 53-539 yds on the season, tied for 10th in receptions for TEs in the NFL. Monty couldn't get much going on the ground, 21-45 and a TD, but did catch 7-61. He now has over 700 rushing yards and almost 300 receiving yards on the season. So even though he won't break 1K in rushing, he will in all-purpose yards next week (needs 10 yards), and that is with several missed games. Mooney has been fairly quiet the last few weeks, had 5 more catches, now has 62 on the season for 860 yards. He will need 140 yards (70 per game) the next two weeks to break 1K in receiving yards. What is so disappointing is the Bears will probably win their next 2, Giants and Vikings to end the season at 7-10. Even though Nagy is responsible for most of the losses, the refs owe the Bears 2 games, which would put them at 9-8. If they didn't crap the bed against Minnesota, they would be a 10 win team, which is hard to fathom. A 9 win team is going to be the 7th seed. It is crazy how such a chaotic season could come down to 3-4 plays/calls.
  3. Yeah QBR gives a huge penalty for fumbles. Obviously an issue, especially for a mobile QB, but something that is correctable. QBR is also terrible with low volume as it builds up over time. Fields has one of the lowest attempts which makes it harder to evaluate. Take last week for example, Mullens 20-30, 66.7%, 147 yds, 4.9 Y/A, 1 TD, QBR 77.9 Fields 26-39, 66.7%, 285 yds, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, QBR 16.8 Fields also ran for 35 yards, but lost a fumble and was sacked 3 times. Mullens was not sacked and had no rushing attempts. So how could Fields have 2.4 yards more per attempt, double the yardage, same TDs and INTs, more rushing yards and 1 more fumble, but a QBR 61.1 points lower than Mullens?
  4. Rookies this week: Lawrence 26-39, 66.7%, 280 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 0 TD, 0 INT, 87.6 QB Rating Wilson 14-22, 63.6%, 102 yds, 4.6 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.6 QB Rating, 91 Rushing Yds, 1 Rushing TD Jones 14-32, 43.7%, 145 yds, 4.5 Y/A, 0 TD, 2 INT, 31.4 QB Rating So for all the RoY talk with Jones, he really has fallen off after a solid start. In his last 11 games, he only has 3 games over 240 yards passing and is averaging less than 160 yards in his last 3 with only 2 TD and 4 INT in his last 3 games. Still can't believe all the Fields hate when all the rookie QBs are doing this.
  5. Foles starting, no Fields, Ifedi in, Borom out. Nagy doesn't care, so why should we? What is absolutely mind-boggling is the Bears still have a chance to finish with the worst record in the NFL. After a 3-2 start, they are 1-8 in their last 9 games. Their only win was a 16-14 nail-biter on Thanksgiving against Detroit. JAX will prevent that from happening, but man it is close. JAX and NYJ face off this week. The loser basically gets the first pick. At 2-11-1, if DET wins 2 of their last 3, they could finish 4-12-1 and if the Bears lose out, 4-13. That would be hilarious at this point. Detroit plays ATL, then SEA, then GB (who will be resting starters). I more easily see the Lions winning 2 of 3 vs the Bears winning a single game. Without Fields playing, I guess I will be watching to see how Graham does with Johnson. They will be facing Metcalf and Lockett and Wilson, in Seattle.
  6. Not only that, Ifedi is starting over Borom, Ifedi is also a Team Captain. Nagy is clearly trying his best to get fired in season. I hope Foles audibles at the line or calls his own plays in the huddle, that would be hilarious and more effective than what Nagy could ever do.
  7. I wouldn't be surprised if he went back to his alma mater.
  8. On the 4th Down pass to Monty, two receivers (Holtz and Mooney) almost run into each other across the middle. You are correct, the motion and stuff is supposed to do something for you. For Nagy, it is just using motion to use motion. It is comical. It makes the play more complex for the offense and doesn't impact the defense in any way. In some cases, it makes the play worse. Trubisky and the offense had some success when they kept it simple. Just line up and beat the other team. Nagy's plays are a detriment to the offense, they are literally playing uphill.
  9. adam

    Thomas Graham Jr.

    If he is even close to Johnson, that is going to be an impressive tandem. If they can get a better Slot CB, the secondary magically becomes a strength.
  10. adam

    Draft Simulation

    My fear is you won't get a true #1 after the 2nd or 3rd round. Once you get past pick 100, the odds of that are extremely low. 3rd Round seems like a sweet spot for WRs, most of the top WRs this year were drafted in the 3rd (Kupp, Godwin, Allen, Johnson, etc). If there is not an absolute stud with the mid-30s pick, I would love to move back to the 50s and pick up a pick in the 80s. That would give the Bears 3 picks in the top 100, then the 2x 5ths and a 6th. In those 3, I would go WR, CB, OL or S.
  11. Nagy literally fired himself. He could've handed all offensive duties to his coordinators and assistants and then would have scapegoats for a season like this. The team is still fighting which is not normally the case when you are out of contention, which is normally a positive for a HC. There were so many legit excuses Nagy could've had. New playcaller, rookie QB, new DC, COVID, injuries to star players, rotating OLine, thin secondary, tough schedule, officials, visor too tight on head. Based on his recent comments, I think there was a meeting before the Thanksgiving game that this would be his last year as HC regardless of the season outcome. They were 3-7 having lost 5 straight. They ultimately had to win out to make the playoffs, which was not happening. He has acted and looked like a lame duck coach since that point. He is having such a bad season that he may never get another HC job again. It happens to a ton of coaches, he will probably need to go to college football after this run.
  12. I was actually quite shocked to see how accurate his assessment was. Normally these bad ex-NFL QBs turned analysts (Orlovsky, Simms, Quinn) have very little clue what they are talking about. Simms said Mond should be drafted before Fields. Quinn is on Sirius and his takes are garbage. Orlovsky is on ESPN and he is hit or miss.
  13. O'Sullivan nails it here:
  14. Omg yes, I agree. Jackson has the tools to be one of the best safeties in the league, his work ethic is just bottom barrel. Amos was and is a steady contributor.
  15. Crazy to think everyone, including me, fell for Jackson over Amos. It was thought Amos was a product of the situation and wouldn't play as well with lesser players around him. Funny that it was Jackson all along.
  16. I would be shocked if he took anything less than $5AAV for at least 2 years. This is his last bigger contract before he signs a bunch of one-year deals. He is going to want that to be at least $10M total.
  17. adam

    Draft Simulation

    We are not locked into a WR in the 2nd by no means. If they sign someone like Gallup or Williams, you can go with a later round WR as WR3.
  18. Everyone knows what Minnesota likes to do, they show A gap pressure, then either send or drop players. You can design plays off of that, and you can tell by some of the plays, Nagy didn't. Sometimes the plays ran right into the defensive formation's strengths. Who does that? Monty had several runs for loss right into the teeth of the defense. Nagy's offense is so inflexible, it is maddening.
  19. His comments make it seem like he knows he is gone. There are several factors to his resigning, and cap is probably the biggest one. Can they afford him? They would have to get very creative to do so.
  20. He didn't play in 2020, and he didn't impress in the preseason. Once the season starts, game evaluation becomes extremely difficult, especially for PS guys. The coaches are more worried about the 53-man roster at that time. So my assumption is it was that he was not up to game speed by the time they got an extended look. Either way, he is up and on the active roster. Hopefully that wasn't a one-game anomaly and he can pair with JJ for years to come. That makes addressing the secondary much easier, get a true SS.
  21. adam

    Thomas Graham Jr.

    All we need him to be is a CB2. That would be huge because it allows the team to address other areas of need and save money doing it (Graham on rookie deal).
  22. The problem with Nagy it seems that his ego (or stubbornness) got in the way. Instead of just being the Head Football Coach, he tried to be this offensive guru which he was not qualified for or had the mental capacity to handle. So instead of fully relinquishing all responsibility for the offense, which should've happened in the offseason, he gave away play calling for a few games. Did you see how bad that game looked last night? That was Matt Nagy's brain on offense. Very few people can design NFL-level offenses and have plays for every coverage and game situation. Nagy is like us and he is not one of them. Hopefully, we can find one. He also failed to ever make a single adjustment, week to week, game to game, half to half. He just called random plays at random times, sometimes they worked, sometimes they didn't. Monty has two good runs in a row, pull him out, go to Wild Cat with a double reverse. Why? Just because. When things wouldn't work, he would just keep doing them. Does anyone remember CPat 3rd and Short draw up the middle for no gain last year? How many times was he going to do that? He also never took advantage of any of his player's strengths, which was clearly evident first with Trubisky, then with Monty, then CPat, then Fields. He had an offensive vision and just forced all players to run it. Foles was vocal about it. It never fit Trubisky and it is definitely not fitting Fields. I remember when Nagy was so dead set on having a single-player other than the QB be so important to the offense that if they were not in, the offense would do nothing. The Adjustor. Trey Burton, Cohen, CPat, etc. If that player was so important to key off of, who was the player this year? In essentially the same offense? Makes sense that the offense is so bad because they don't have the Adjustor.
  23. adam

    Cole Kmet

    I was always a fan of Olsen and never saw him like Kmet. Olsen was Cutler's security blanket and was scoring a lot of TDs even early on. The only reason they traded him was because of Mike Martz. Kmet is not going anywhere, I would just like him to improve his game. I agree that it doesn't help you catch while running but he needs all the help he can get catching the ball. Too many easy drops.
  24. This team might only have 2 wins if not for Desai's defense, and they would probably have 4 more wins with even a bottom 1/3 offense. This offense is so bad it is hard to quantify. I still cannot believe they held the Vikings to that output when the offense and Special Teams gave the ball away 3 times.
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