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Jags Safeties are the worst duo in the NFL by a long shot.

Interesting note about Daniels: Daniels has thrown 29.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage this season (2nd-highest in the NFL) with 21.4% of all his attempts being screen passes, the only quarterback to throw a screen on more than 20% of his passes.

Game Insights: Bears running backs have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 33.6% of their carries this season, 3rd-lowest in the NFL, but have recorded just 0.8 yards before contact per carry, 21st in the NFL. The Bears are also one of two teams to have recorded just 3 explosive runs (10+ yards) from their running backs this season (Chiefs) and have generated -80 rush yards over expected as result (3rd-lowest in the NFL). The Bears defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest conversion rate (31.7%) and 4th-lowest completion percentage over expected (-11.1%) on third down this season. The Jaguars have the 3rd-lowest conversion rate on third down this season (27.8%). Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has completed -8.7% of his passes below expected on third down, the 5th-lowest mark among quarterbacks; his 42.5% completion percentage (17 of 40) is the 2nd-lowest on third down. The Bears defense is one of three units to have five defenders with double digit pressures this season (Texans, Seahawks), helping them generate a 34.7% pressure rate (13th) and a 19.1% quick pressure rate (7th). Jaguars blockers have allowed the 5th-lowest pressure rate through 5 weeks (27.5%). They have been especially strong on the interior, as all three interior linemen are top 3 in pressure rate allowed at their positions - LG Ezra Cleveland: 3.3% (3rd), C Mitch Morse: 2.2% (2nd), RG Brandon Scherff: 1.7% (1st).

Ugh, looks like Tyrique is out, tweaked something in practice today, now doubtful for Sunday. No Brisker and no Stevenson. You can assume the Jags are going to attack whoever lines up across from Jaylon now. Terrell Smith was already out, so now the Bears are super thin at DB. Josh Blackwell is now the only sub CB to cover down on Johnson, now Jaylon Jones, and Gordon. Not good.

London weather on Sunday morning, game time temps in the low to mid 40s. Jacksonville coming from mid 70-low 80s to 40s is a pretty big shock. Couple that with the late arrival and I would feel like crap. So not only do the Jags have to get acclimated to the time change, they also have to get acclimated to the weather.

Jags fans super confident. Pretty funny thread. I liked this one, one guy called Caleb "Johnson" and says he thinks the Bears will win 23-6, and the next guy's reply is golden:

I am going with Bears 33-19. The Bears offense is averaging 30 over their last two games and JAX has allowed an average of 35 over their last 3 weeks. Those are some strong trends. The Bears have yet to allow 20 pts this season.

There actually is. The Athletic did an article here: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5811903/2024/10/03/nfl-london-games-analysis-arrival/ The team that arrives early is actually 7-2 in the last 9 games (since 2017). The farther you go back, the games actually even out. I think that is why a lot of teams did arrive later because early on, those teams seemed to have the advantage. However, lately, the team that arrives early has a clear edge.

Jacksonville knew a hurricane was coming to Florida, and decided to wait it out before leaving for Europe? Now they are delayed leaving Jacksonville and won't get in until later on Friday. Supposedly this is something they do regularly, though they will arrive later. https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jaguars-london-hurricane-t17980 I can't imagine arriving to Europe after a 9-hour flight, then playing an NFL football game less than 48 hours later. It normally takes me 3 days to fully get adjusted to the time change when it is that large.

From what I have seen, the final QBR is weighted for the opponent. So for Week 5, Williams had a raw QBR of 89.7 (1st in NFL), but that was weighted down to 83.9. In comparison, Red Rifle had a raw QBR of 22.3 against the Bears, that was weighted up to a 32.8 because of how good the Bears defense has been. Then you have to account for snap count per game, which also weights the season average. In Caleb's case, he had 52 attempts his last two weeks in total, which is the same amount he had against IND alone. So the IND game, with so many passes weighs him down right now. His 2nd highest attempts total was against HOU, another lower game. So he needs a few plus games to dilute those lower ones.

JAX has 2x 200-yd rushers in Etienne and Bigsby, yet are 30th in TOP and in 3rd Down%. So odd. Their offense should be solid with Thomas, Kirk, and Davis as their top 3 WR, but it looks like they really miss Evan Engram who hasn't played since getting hurt in Week 1. Hopefully, he doesn't come back for this one with Brisker out. I like our defenses chance against JAX, and the offense has a favorable matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. From a matchup perspective, the Bears have the edge.

Bears are slowly creeping up the charts. After Week 5, DVOA is up to 20th (last week 23), Offensive DVOA 26th, Defensive DVOA 8th, ST DVOA 8th. They have currently played the 2nd easiest DVOA schedule and going forward they have the 7th most difficult. The division games and SF are the toughest games going forward. JAX, WAS, NE, and ARZ are the easiest, and ironically, the next 4 games. So the Bears really need to win 3 out of the next 4, and hit the gauntlet of death at 6-3. If they do that, they have a shot because even 4-4 should be enough for a WC slot at 10-7. They always play DET well, GB looks off this year, MIN can't maintain this level for 18 weeks, and SF looks like a totally different team without McCaffrey, who may be back by then, but who knows. MIN is the only team with a better defense (so far) than the Bears. HOU and TEN are better defenses than all future opponents than MIN and SF, so that is promising for the Bears. Especially if the offense improves.

You also have to give credit to Waldron too, outside of that terrible 4th Down call, he called probably his best game to date. The routes are working off each other like they are supposed to. On Moore's first TD over the middle, the little crosser rub helped Moore get open.

On the back end, Edmunds has really stepped up his game, but I still have concerns about Stevenson. Out of all the starters on defense, Stevenson worries me the most. Brisker, Byard, and Johnson are all playing at a Pro Bowl level.

Dexter and Billings have been elite. Dexter is a top 5 Pass Rushing DT and Billings is top 12 for pass rush and top 15 overall. That is rare to have 2x in the top 30, let alone top 15. Then you have DeMarcus Walker and Darrell Taylor have overperformed while Sweat has been slightly less productive but not terrible. PFF has the Bears rated as the 2nd best defense (by grade), behind only PIT and tied with DET. The only weakness is the leaky run defense, when they overpursue. The LBs and Safeties have to be on the same sheet of music on those outside zone runs. It always seems like the offense has extra blockers or ones where they can take out two defenders when the runner cuts back.

I think back, I really liked Claypool over Kmet, lmao. Kmet was expected to go in the 2nd or 3rd, NFL.com had him rated as a "Will eventually be plus starter". His comp was Tyler Higbee.

Obviously the passing game was a little slow to get started, but has picked up the last 3 weeks with Caleb averaging 275 yds per game, if he can stay near 250 per game, there is a good chance 2-3 receivers break 1K. I don't think Allen is going to do it. Same with Velus or Scott. Thru 5 weeks: 1. Moore - 294, needs 59 y/g to hit 1K 2. Kmet - 219, needs 65 y/g to hit 1K 3. Odunze - 206, needs 66 y/g to hit 1K 4. Swift - 165, needs 70 y/g to hit 1K 5. Allen - 81, needs 77 y/g to hit 1K 6. Everett - 22, needs 82 y/g to hit 1K 7. Velus - 8, needs 83 y/g to hit 1K 8. Scott - 0, needs 84 y/g to hit 1K Swift is 13th amongst RBs in yards from scrimmage; that is somewhat surprising considering his first 3 games he had 30, 42, and 42 total yards. He followed up those 3 stinkers with 165 and 120. I hope he can consistently stay over 100. That should slide him into the top 10 by the end of the year.

These guys are on fire. 9 WRs already making an impact. Nabers leads the NFL in receptions. Whittington is 3rd in receptions amongst WR rookies and he is a 6th round pick. How does LAR do it? Kupp, then Puka, now Whittington. Thomas looks like a steal at #23. Outside of Whittington, Thomas may end up being the best value WR pick in the draft. I am not worried about Odunze because his issue is not skill, it has been target volume. Once his targets go up, he will be right there with the leaders. Nabers 35-386-3 (1st) Thomas 22-397-3 (1st) Whittington 18-201-0 (6th) Harrison 17-279-4 (1st) Odunze 15-206-1 (1st) McConkey 15-176-2 (2nd) Legette 13-151-1 (1st) McCaffrey 10-98-0 (3rd) Coleman 9-175-2 (2nd)

So this guy got 1 target and 1 reception in Week 1. Even with that week of low usage, he still is 5th amongst TEs in receptions and yards, 3rd for 1st Downs, and has the highest Catch Rate amongst the top 20 TEs this season. He is 8th in AAV for his contract amongst TEs, only 500K more than Friermuth. It feels like the Bears got a very solid deal with Kmet who is signed thru 2027. His cap hit is fixed, so every year it is going to become an even better deal.

Fields highest EPA/DB in his career was +0.38 against SF in 2021 (Week 1). Kind of funny that his best game as a passer was in a monsoon. Trubisky's was +0.95 against TB in 2018. Everyone remembers that game.

As rookies, in their first 5 games to start their careers, there have only been 4 QBs to have over 1K passing yards, 100 rushing yards, 5+ Passing TDs, less than 5 INTs, with a 60% Comp%. Caleb became the 4th yesterday, to join Herbert, Minshew, and Watson. Even with Caleb's first few games, he is still on historic pace. With his season averages, Williams is on pace for 3,709 passing yards, 17 TD, and 13 INT. He is averaging 274 yds and 1.7 TDs per game over the last 3 games. Here is what he has to do to challenge some of the team records for passing in the remaining games: Average 229 yds per game for the remaining 12 to surpass Erik Kramer's team record of 3,838 passing yds in a season. Average 242 yds per game for the remaining 12 to hit 4K. Average 249 yds per game for the remaining 12 to equal Kramer's yards per game average. Average 2.1 TDs per game to hit 30 Also, on a side note, Stroud ended up with 4,108 passing yds and 23 TDs last year. Williams would have to average 251 yds per game to hit that number, and only 1.5 passing TDs a game to hit 23. I think the crazy thing is none of those seem outrageous or unrealistic.

Fields needs basically 3 1/2 more starts to get the Bears a 4th rounder. It seems like Steelers fans are quickly getting accustomed to what we have experienced over the last few years. Their defense allowed 20 pts and lost. In the last two weeks they had the ball last with a chance to win or tie and lost. Fields has been super efficient, but 131 yards passing against a ravaged Dallas defense is almost impossible to do. Previously his rushing saved him, but he only added 27 yards on the ground. They have some easy games coming up, so I hope they go with Fields for the next 3 until the bye, that would be LVR, NYJ, and NYG.

EPA/DB - Williams ended with +0.47, which is the 9th highest this season overall and 4th highest with 25+ attempts. Crazy to think it would've been higher if Moore doesn't drop that super easy catch too. Of the 4 with 25+ attempts (Allen, Mayfield, Burrow), Williams had the highest pressure rate, 5% higher than Mayfield. EPA/DB gets tougher with more attempts and yards, because an incomplete and lack of yards on a pass will drop it. Williams and Burrow are the only players with a top 10 EPA/DB game AND over 300 yards passing.

Pulling the starters, even for a few plays helps. The defensive starters did not play in the last drive, 9 plays.

Yeah it will more than likely be an ugly game. Penalties and turnovers will probably decide it.