adam

Now there are rumors that if the Bears lose bad to the Packers on SNF, that Nagy could be fired on Monday. Just like the last rumor, take it for what it's worth. Even if the Bears somehow win out and make the playoffs, I don't know if that would be enough to save Nagy's job. Since the PIT game, it feels like he has been a dead man walking and the team seems to be playing that way.

Thru this week, the Bears are now 26th in DVOA, 26th on Offense and 18th on Defense. That is exactly how they look. They have had the 9th hardest schedule and their remaining schedule is the 10th hardest. Their remaining games are against GB (10th), MIN x2 (11th), SEA (17th), and NYG (24th) in terms of DVOA. The Bears should be underdogs in every game except the NYG game, where it may be even.

If the season ended today, the Bears would have the 6th pick, tied with NYG and SEA, so they would rotate picks every round. So they lost a 1st and 4th for Fields, and 7th with Miller, and got back a 5th for Miller. Since HOU is terrible, that ends up as a very high 5th. The Bears got Borom and Herbert in the 5th last year. With the following picks, I would love to see the new GM move down on either Pick 37 or 71 and pick up a 4th rounder. That would give them 5 picks in the top 150, which is decent. With those 5 picks, you get a WR1, CB2, C, S, and BPA (WR, CB, or ILB). I would be happy with a draft like that. They would still have a solid 6th rounder to use as well. 6 (1)- to NYG for Fields 37 (2)- 71 (3)- 111 (4)- to NYG for Fields 146 (5)- from HOU for Miller 149 (5)- 191 (6)- 234 (7)- to HOU w/ Miller Thoughts?

After 12/6: WC2 WAS 6-6 DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 8-9 (7-5) WC3 SF 6-6 CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 8-9 (6-6) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 PHI 6-7 WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9 (6-6) 2 MIN 5-7 PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 6-11 (4-8) 3 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12 (3-9) 4 ATL 5-7 CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9 (5-7) 5 NO 5-7 NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10 (5-7) 6 NYG 4-8 LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13 7 CHI 4-8 GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 8-9 (6-6) Based on WAS win against LV and SF's loss against SEA. SF now holds the last WC spot. Since the Bears lost to them head to head, they have the tiebreaker. If it falls out like the above scenario, the Bears miss out due to a tiebreaker against SF, but would hold the tiebreaker against PHI due to common opponents. So the Bears either have to run the table, including a win against GB, or SF or WAS have to lose 4 of their next 5 instead of 3. I have both of those teams losing this week (SF to CIN and WAS to DAL).

Borom may be the steal of the draft. If Jenkins can lock down the left side, with Borom on the right, Fields and Herbert? Their progress may save Pace's job, hitting on 4 draft picks. Get a new Center and WR1 and CB2 in the draft. Sign a WR3 and S in FA, and run this back next year with Fields, Monty, Herbert, Kmet, Mooney and a new WR1 and WR3, with Jenkins, Whitehair, New Center, Daniels, and Borom. I would also look to upgrade TE with a true pass-catching TE. Kmet has hands of stone. Then on defense, you add a true CB2 and SS and the defense roll it back with Mack, Quinn, Goldman, Smith, Trevathan, Jackson, Johnson, a new CB2 and new SS. The secondary needs an overhaul for sure.

It's a start. I would put him in on all special teams plays to get some reps. Then ease him in the final 4-5 games where he is playing all the snaps by Week 18.

Dalton was absolute garbage today. Even the passes that were caught were badly thrown. All Dalton had to do was not turn the ball over, and he threw 4 picks. 3 of them were completely on him. If I told you Murray only threw for 123 yards, I think you would assume the Bears won. Outside of 1 or 2 runs by Conner, he didn't do much on the ground. Hopkins had that one great TD catch and only 1 other reception for 12 yards. Green, Kirk, and Ertz had only 1 reception each. I don't know what else you can expect from a defense with Mack, Hicks, Edwards, and Trevathan. The Cardinals had 4 INTs and 7 Passes Defended. The Bears had 26 First Downs to the Cards 14. Had the ball for 9 more minutes, converted on 4 of 4 4th Downs, only punted twice, and lost by 11. This on a day where the Lions beat the Vikings. Every team in front of the Bears lost besides Philly who was expected to beat NYJ. This game was a microcosm of the Nagy era. 3 steps forward and 1 step back every series. It is going to look like the Cardinals won this game, but just like the last few losses for the Bears, this was a Bears loss. Embarrassing.

I like Grant too, and his Special Teams work is a plus. Not much Johnson could do on that pass to Hopkins, perfectly placed ball and great catch.

The biggest difference is Bears defenders are never in a position to make a play on an errant throw. The Cards are 2 for 2 on those. The Bears are like 1-80 on the season on those. Zero playmakers. This looks like a 40+ to 10- sort of game now. I suspect once it hits 14-0 the Fire Nagy chants will come out.

You can't make this up, the Bears drive all the way down the field running the ball, then on 3rd Down, a pass right to Kmet flys out of his hands right into Baker's hands. He returns it for 70 yds and Cards are back in scoring position. LMAO.

Then of course on 4th Down, the Cards get a TD pass to Hopkins (great pass and catch). 7-0. This defense is always one play away. They held the Cards to 8 yards on 3 plays, then let up a 21 yard TD to Hopkins with zero Safety help.

Of course, on the 3rd play Dalton throws a terrible ball to Grant that gets intercepted. Ugh. Cards already in scoring position lol. That was Dalton's first pass, he thought Grant was 6'8".

You are right AG, there is literally a stat for that. I was looking at snap counts and then subtracting from the total snap counts to get a "snap count lost" but by team, that was taking too long. I don't know if they account for guys like Cohen, and since rookies don't have AV from last year, how they account for those values (Fields and Jenkins). I would assume the Bears are closer to the middle of the pack if you account for those. On penalties, the challenging piece is there is no record-keeping for "missed penalties" or "no-calls" that favor a team. That is where the problem lies because if you just look at net penalties for and against, TB is the worst in the league with a -24 net (24 more calls against them than the opponent) and the Bears are 9th worst (-8). That doesn't tell the whole story. Without the missed calls, it is very hard to quantify the impact to a game unless you track the win probability by play to plot the difference before and after a specific penalty or play (no-call). That is a little easier to find.

Bears by 20! Jenkins with 3x pancake blocks, Irvin with 1.5 sacks and Adams with 3 receptions for 48 yards.

I was thinking about how all the injuries have really impacted the season. You could even start that with the Dalton injury against CIN, which led to that horrible game against CLE. Is Nagy going to get a pass like Shanahan has for injuries? Mack out for the season, Trevathan out of the season. Cohen and Jenkins have yet to play. Ifedi, ARob, Montgomery, Jackson, Hicks all have missed time. Roquan may be out, Fields out, etc. What was surprising to me, with all of those, the Bears are still one of the top 10-12 healthiest teams in terms of missed games this year: That should be enough to ensure Nagy doesn't get a get out of jail free card for this season. If anything, teams like the Giants and Jets have more of justification based on how many games their players have missed.

The only issue with going into the draft with the mentality of only drafting from one or two positions at any pick is you really run the risk of overdrafting a player that is nowhere near the pick value than the other positions. Unless it is QB, you have to go in with 4-5 positions of need for every pick, then select the best overall player from that pool. If not, you end up with a ton of Adam Shaheens.

After 12/2: WC2 SF 6-5 SEA-W, CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 9-8 WC3 WAS 5-6 LV-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 7-10 (7-5) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 MIN 5-6 DET-W, PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 7-10 (5-7) 2 ATL 5-6 TB-L, CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9 (5-7) 3 PHI 5-7 NYJ-W, WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9 (6-6) 4 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12 (3-9) 5 NO 5-7 NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10 (5-7) 6 NYG 4-7 MIA-L, LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13 7 CHI 4-7 ARZ-L, GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 8-9 (6-6) NO lost to DAL, as expected, dropped down to 5th "in the hunt". CAR on bye this week. Need WAS, ATL, and NYG to lose this week to stay on course. Would be great if SEA figured something out and snuck a win in against SF but I doubt it.

Right now CB2 is the biggest hole on the team, however, like you said, the team can't go into next year with Mooney and a ton of vets on 1 yr deals in the WR room. So CB/WR are my first two picks. There are some options at Center, you can draft one, or slide Whitehair or Daniels (after extension) back to Center and draft another Guard. However, is Center a bigger hole than Safety right now? Listening to Olin Kreutz, he doesn't think Mustipher is playing that bad. So I would almost put Safety or ILB ahead of Center. Those are definitely the top 5 needs and should be addressed with a high draft pick or a quality FA signing.

Impressive. I hope he keeps it up.

This will probably be an ugly loss for the Bears. Hicks, Edwards, Goodwin, Kmet, Robinson, and Smith all DNP on Wednesday. That is in addition to Fields battling the cracked ribs and Mack lost for the season. Murray and Hopkins were limited, but McCoy has filled in nicely for the Cards. They may be without Justin Pugh on the OL, but outside of that, they are pretty intact. I would expect the Bears to try to run the ball a lot, control the clock and keep the Cards off the field. I don't see any way the Bears can win this based on how they looked recently. Cardinals 31-17

I don't think it was an absolute statement. I bet it was, "IF" the Bears lose to the Lions, Nagy would be fired on Friday. That would've been 6 in a row, to a winless team, on national TV. That would've done it. Nagy needs to go, but in his defense, very few teams are going to play well with so many injuries. The Bears played without their top defensive player (Mack), another top 4 defensive player out (Hicks), the 2nd best defender leaves the game (Smith), a gaping hole at CB2, the worst Safety group in the NFL which is just on the defense. It is a miracle that they only allowed 14 pts. On offense, you didn't have the rising star QB, the WR1, even if he is having a down year, and you still don't have your gadget back (Cohen) and your top drafted OT. Those are all significant pieces to the team, either out, or in Jackson and ARob's case, severely underperforming. How would the Packers do without Rodgers, Adams on offense, then 3 of their top 4 defenders out? Very few teams are going to play well.

Can you imagine the Bears missing out on the playoffs by tie breaker or one game (when you have the tie breaker) knowing they got robbed by the officials in the Steelers game? That would be tough to swallow. That is very much in play if they finish 8-9.

There are so many more, and they are funny. Surtain is a great player, but Denver doesn't have a QB. Without it they will continue to be a .500 team. They are 6-5 and have a harder path to the playoffs than the Bears do at 4-7. They play KC twice, CIN, LV, LAC and DET. The only gimme is DET. They will have to win at least 2 against KC, KC, LV, CIN, LAC to have a chance at the playoffs.

Now their are Broncos fans believing that Patrick Surtain (CB) was still a better pick than Justin Fields, these are pure comedy:

McCaffrey on IR and out for the season again. That is why you don't pay RBs. The Packers hilariously paid Aaron Jones (6th highest) who will make $9M in 2022 and potentially $19M in 2023, when they still have AJ Dillon on his rookie deal, and Dillon is better. McCaffrey has the 3rd biggest contract for an RB and has only played in 10 games in the last two seasons. He signed his new deal in April 2020 and in September 2022, he will have played in 10 of 33 games for the 3rd highest RB salary in the league. This knocks CAR out of any playoff contention.