adam

I don't expect much from Smith. Wilson literally would win 3-4 games singlehandedly. With one of the worst defenses in the league, and in the NFC West, I don't expect them to win more than 1-2 in their next 6. That would put them at best at 4-7 with 6 to play. That's if Wilson can come back in 6 weeks which would be miraculous. Seattle is really interesting. They won the SB, then lost it the following year (2014) but have not really done anything of note since then. Hard to believe Carroll not running BeastMode for the win was 7.5 yrs ago.

It looks like Russell Wilson will be out 6-8 weeks (my fantasy season is over), that would be a perfect location for someone like Dalton.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/08/damon-arnette-trayvon-mullen-wont-play-sunday/ The Raiders have 2 of their top 3 CBs out. They are starting Nate Hobbs across from Hayward with one of Amik Robertson or Keisean Nixon in the slot. What a huge break for the Bears. Zero excuses to lose this game.

That was when we identified our coverage units sucked. He had a 34 yard punt return in the preseason against the Bears. In total, 3 punt returns for 50 yards. That is a lot of field position on 3 plays.

DVOA is great because it adjusts based on the opponent's defense making the stat a little more realistic than QB Rating or QBR. Meaning if you are playing a tougher defense the player is not expected to get the same stats per play as against a lesser defense. If Fields has similar games like he did against Detroit for the rest of the season, he will probably finish in the top half of the league, however, even with one decent game against Detroit, he still has a huge hole to dig out of. I just thought it was interesting that he was literally the worst rated QB in terms of DVOA ever. That seems almost impossible considering how he looked against Detroit.

To me, Gilmore is overrated and aging. Unless we were going all-in this year, I didn't think it would be a good pickup. However, if Grant is effective, they can look to re-sign him in the offseason. For Smith, the injury history and coverage skills scare me >

So I was looking around at some stats (go figure) and right now Fields has the lowest DVOA of any QB, ever (for qualified QBs based on attempts). Right now he is dead last in the NFL with a DVOA of -92.5%. Here are the lowest qualified QBs by year for the last 10 years. If Fields ends the year there, it will be 3 years in a row for Ohio St QBs, and not company to be in. 2020 - Haskins -40.2% 2019 - Haskins -42% 2018 - Rosen -53.7% 2017 - Kizer -34.5% 2016 - Goff -74.8% 2015 - Foles -27.9% 2014 - McCown -41.9% 2013 - Weeden -36.1% 2012 - Quinn -43.8% 2011 - Gabbert -46.5% His QB rating is 53.9 (2nd to last) and his QBR is 16.9 (last) in the NFL for qualified players. That is 3 different metrics, all have him basically last. The Cleveland game and the Cincy game to an extent have skewed his stats so bad that I think the league is going to underestimate him. CLE and CIN combined, he was 12-33 for 128 yds and an INT. Against DET he went 11-17 for 209 and an INT. He has yet to throw a TD, which is not helping any of his stats. It is just interesting to see how bad he is stat-wise compared to what I saw on Sunday. I hope he proves everyone and the metrics wrong on Sunday with a strong all-around game.

Smith has dealt with a lot of injuries himself. Good signing, they must like Smiths. 3rd one on the roster, correct?

In the Division, Kirk Cousins is playing the best in his career and the Vikings are 1-3. After Detroit, they get CAR, then their bye (super early) and then DAL, BAL, LAC, GB, and SF. There is a chance that they are out of playoff contention before playing the Bears one time (first game is 12/20) in Week 15. GB starts a tough stretch with the Bears next week, then WAS, ARZ, KC, SEA, MIN, LAR. After the bye, they get the Bears again, then BAL, CLE, MIN before DET in Week 18. I assume they will be using that week as a bye week. The Bears need them to lose at least 6 more times, preferably 7. If you give them losses to KC, LAR, ARZ, BAL, then one to CHI and one to MIN, that is 6 losses and they still have to beat WAS, SEA, CLE, and CHI and MIN once. I would give them wins (6) against CIN, DET, CHI, MIN x2, WAS, then have them split (1) SEA, CLE, and losses to ARZ, KC, LAR, BAL, and CHI. That is 7-6 to finish 10-7.

At the quarter point in the season, in the NFC Playoff picture, you have ARZ, DAL, TB, and GB as division leaders with LAR and CAR as the top 2 wild card teams. Then you have 5 teams tied at 2-2 (WAS, CHI, SEA, SF, and NO) for the final wild-card spot. WAS and NO are not very good, I think they will both fade. So it will come down to CHI, SEA, and SF for the last spot unless CAR fades, which is possible. The NFC West is brutal with ARZ, LAR, SEA, and SF. Those teams are going to beat up on each other, which will help the Bears.

I think this is still pretty accurate, though I would swap PIT and ARZ, and swap SF and DET. With Fields starting, they should beat LVR, PIT, MIN, DET, and NYG. They will still probably lose to TB, ARZ, and GB on the road. They should be able to go at least 2-3 vs GB, SF, BAL, SEA, MIN. That is 9 wins. If they can sneak a 3-2 record out of those 5, that is a 10-win team.

Not that someone from above, but maybe!

MadLith, I think your letter worked lol.

Clearly, someone above directed him to make this move.

That's the thing, when he was calling plays, he was also making himself a worse head coach. Now Nagy can be a better game day HC and the team has a better play-caller. If you add that to Fields over Dalton, those are all significant improvements that are exponential. I always thought Nagy was a good HC. If he sticks to this plan, he can be an even better HC. This will be Fields' 3rd week as the starter and getting starter reps, but only the 2nd week with Lazor calling plays. So there is still a lot of room to improve. Here are the teams and their defensive ratings before the bye: LV (15th), GB (23rd), TB (19th), SF (16th), PIT (22nd). Fields will only face one current top 10 defense the rest of the year. The best Defense remaining based on DVOA is Arizona at #6 after a mini-post Thanksgiving bye. Here is what the schedule looks like post bye: BAL (12), DET (31), ARZ (6), GB (23), MIN (14), SEA (25), NYG (27), MIN (14). The good thing is the Bears have extra rest and prep time for the top two defensive teams they will face the rest of the year.

Then there is this: You can't tell me this kid isn't different. He knows that this is nothing to celebrate over. He doesn't want participation ribbons.

Not to be confused with just this week. Dalton is a full go, but Fields has been named the starter going forward. A huge move for Nagy to commit to something.

I hope not. Against the Lions, Monty was 23-106 for 4.6 per carry, and Williams/Herbert combined for 11-62 for 5.6 per carry. If they can get to 20 carries combined, then add a few planned runs for Fields, I think they will be ok. Passing attempts last 3 games: 17, 20, 24. So the sweet spot is around 25 passes and 25 rushes it seems.

There is no way you single him. Put a LB underneath and a Safety over the top. Blanket him the entire game. Looking at Carr's progressions, Waller is almost always his first or second read. You take that away and he has to go to one of the other WRs, who outside of Renfrow, seem to become a little skittish after taking that first hard hit.

I am sure some other teams have had the same thing happen to them, but the Bears had sacks taken off the board due to penalties too. Also, Attaochu doesn't have a sack yet, and Edwards in only 2 games has 1.5. It will be nice when Hicks and Goldman get to line up next to each other for an entire game. We have yet to see that since 2019.

He is a 2nd Team All-Pro Punt Returner from 2020, and has 5 career return TDs (3 punt, 2 kick). This is like getting CPat back for a fraction of the cost.

Knee sprain, so hopefully it is on the lower end of the spectrum for recovery.

There are two players on the entire team you have to account for, Waller and Crosby. If the Bears concentrate on them, they win.

This is going to hurt, but I am glad it is not season-ending. In other team news, it looks like they traded a 6th Round Pick for WR Jakeem Grant from Miami. He is a Return Specialist and will likely take over both the KR and PR duties with Herbert moving to RB2. Webster probably getting cut for his reluctance to even fair catch a ball last week like Ted Ginn did last year. Grant also has some speed, but until they used Goodwin and Byrd, he won't be much of an option on offense, which is fine with me.

This is going to hurt, but I am glad it is not season-ending. In other team news, it looks like they traded a 6th Round Pick for WR Jakeem Grant from Miami. He is a Return Specialist and will likely take over both the KR and PR duties with Herbert moving to RB2. Webster probably getting cut for his reluctance to even fair catch a ball last week like Ted Ginn did last year. Grant also has some speed, but until they used Goodwin and Byrd, he won't be much of an option on offense, which is fine with me.