adam

Defense Post: It is hard to give any bad grades to a unit that only allowed 9 pts and one TD. DL - C+. This unit is clearly missing Hicks, you don't hear many of their names called during the game, but you don't hold Jacobs to 3.2 a carry without the DLine clogging holes. The biggest name was Edwards getting two penalties, one that negated a huge TFL. Hopefully Hicks is back next week for GB. Edge - A, Mack gets his revenge game, a sack, a ton of pressures and another sack on the 2-pt conversion (that doesn't count in the stats book). Gipson had another sack where he manhandled a TE. I didn't realize how big he is. Quinn had a quiet game, but was playing against the Raiders best O-Lineman, so I will give him a pass. The constant pressure had Carr jittery all game. ILB - A+, Roquan Smith is a beast. Danny T with his first game back. This unit was really solid. They didn't allow and big runs, helped in coverage to contain Waller and Renfrow and you could tell no one wanted to go over the middle the way Smith was crushing people. With Trevathan back, Ogletree now becomes an A+ sub instead of a B- starter. CB - B+, Outside of one or two plays, this unit had arguably their best game. Tackles were made and you didn't hear their names called for bad plays. That to me is a win for this unit. Shelley and Vildor played very solid. S - C+, If I am grading Gipson, Houston-Carson, and Bush, this unit got an A. Jackson got an F. Gipson had a sack, and DHC had a huge INT. Out of all the players on the 53-man roster, Jackson is the most worthless. I have no clue why they keep running him out there. Don't do it because of his damn contract. If he is not playing up to par, bench him. I have never seen an NFL safety avoid contact like him. If you have a chance, watch the entire game and key on him on every play. He just runs around near the action but not quite close enough to impact the play unless it is right at him. He literally can't tackle a tackling dummy, has had one impact play the entire season (5 games), 0 passes defended, and has now gone 21 games without an INT. ST - A, Santos with 2 huge FGs, keeps his streak going, and I was pleasantly surprised by Grant who had a nice punt return in his first game.

What a win! This was a signature Chicago Bears victory. Great defense and an efficient running game. This is also setting up Fields for some opportunities in the passing game down the road. Teams are now going to have to commit an extra defender to the box to stop the run. The difference is we now have a QB that can hit the deep to intermediate throws. Offense Post: QB - I would give QBs a B-. I was expecting a little more out of the passing game, but no turnovers (INTs or fumbles) is great to see. The injury scare was enough to give me a small heart attack, but luckily Fields is ok. Hopefully there aren't any long-term nagging effects from the hyperextension. The Bears actually passed for more 1st Downs than they rushed for, and 3rd Downs were much better. That is an improvement from last week. The Raiders literally had 7 defenders in coverage which made it really hard to pass, so the Bears took what they gave them and gashed them on the ground. I still would have liked to see more than 119 yards passing. RB - This was easily an A, filling in for Monty, Williams and Herbert combined for 139 yards on 34 carries. I was hoping for 20-25, so to get 30+ is awesome. Herbert looks perfectly suited for a zone-blocking scheme. His ability to see the cutback lane is amazing. I don't know what the Bears will do with Monty next season and going forward, but a Monty/Herbert two-headed monster would be a formidable duo. I expect to see a lot more Herbert going forward, even when Monty comes back. TE - This is such a hard group to grade, but I will go with a C. When given the opportunity, they produced. Horsted caught Fields' first career TD pass, Kmet had a nice catch for a first down and Graham may have had the run block of the game. Still, I would like to see a few more passes go their way and maybe a few to Graham in the Red Zone. OL - B, this unit is now exceeding my expectations, only two sacks on Fields, one his fault, and this unit mauled for almost 150 yards on the ground. Would like to see a little better pass pro, but the difference between this game and the Cleveland game is night and day. Daniels took the soul of a poor Raiders defender, I like the line's nasty. They are starting to play with an attitude that is needed in the trenches. I think Peters is rubbing off on them. We haven't seen this type of stuff since Kyle Long's prime:

I love what Roquan is doing. He has really rounded into an All-Pro LB. He is the only LB in the NFL with 50+ tackles, 2+ sacks, 1+ INT, and 1+ PD. Plus he has a TD. He is on pace for 170 tackles and 7 sacks in a 17 game season.

Rookie QB Watch: Zach Wilson is now 1-4 and leads the NFL with 9 INTs. Mac Jones got his 2nd win against another rookie QB, beating Davis Mills, who actually outplayed Jones. Trey Lance got his first start and lost. He had more rushes than passes, 0 TD, 1 INT Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 and is 2nd in the NFL with 8 INTs. The other 4 QBs are a combined 3-13 with 2 of those wins against other rookie QBs. Fields is now 2-1 as a starter. His stats haven't quite been there, but in both games the Bears were just protecting the lead.

Watching the SNF game, it seems like this may be true now. Outside of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill, and to an extent Edwards-Helaire, KC has very few other quality players. This is with Mahomes on the 5th year of his rookie contract. Next year Mahomes contract goes up $28M to $36M, Chris Jones will be $29M, Frank Clark $26M, Hill will be $21M, and Joe Thuney $18M. That is $130M for 5 players! Also, there is not much wiggle room in any of those contracts (a ton of dead cap already). This is their last year in this window.

Don't underestimate how bad Nagy can screw things up.

Huge road win for the Bears, first game without Monty and both Williams (16-64 yds) and especially Herbert (18-75 yds) played really well. I like the cutbacks, Herbert has amazing vision. The Fields injury was scary, hopefully it's nothing he will have to deal with next week. They went very conservative after the injury. Horsted with a great TD catch and Graham may have had the block of the game, or push, helping Herbert get 3 more yards against a DLineman. The defensive effort was impressive. This was a borderline dominant performance, on the road without Hicks. The Raiders had the #1 Passing Offense coming in and were limited to 206 passing yards and the Bears also had 3 sacks. Mack was only credited with 1 sack, but I swear he had 3 lol. Gipson had another and it was nice to see Danny T back in there. DHC with a huge INT and it felt like Roquan was killing people out there. He is an absolute beast and you could tell receivers were worried about going over the middle. Waller was only 4-45 on 8 targets and one of those was the blown coverage for 29 yards. So when covered he was 3-16, which is crazy. On the flip side, can they just bench Jackson for the year. He is the worst player on the defense and it is not even close anymore. I would rather have anyone else out there but him. He just takes up a spot on the field, he contributes nothing. Almost all the blown coverages him, missed tackles, yep, offsides penalties in a critical situation, check. That dude needs to go. Do something with him, just don't play him anymore. Cairo Santos continues his longest active streak the same day as a record number of kickers miss kicks. Mason Crosby missed 4 (3 straight). Grant looked good on the returns and averaged 19 yards on punts and 23 on kickoffs. If not for a crazy bounce on one he would've had more. I was happy with his performance. Bears 3-2 going back home to face GB who barely beat Cincinnati. They are beatable, but we will need a better game from Fields and have Johnson shut down Adams who seems like the only threat yet they don't cover him.

After watching some of the other rookie QBs, I am so glad we have Justin Fields. Zach Wilson (leads NFL in INTs) playing against a terrible Atlanta team today is 5-13 for 42 yards and an INT at the half. CPat, who has 1 incompletion for the Falcons has a higher passer rating than Wilson. This is Game 5 for Wilson with the entire preseason as QB1. The Jets traded Darnold for this. Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence (2nd in INTs) are game managers. Trey Lance looks more like Taysom Hill with almost an even split of carries and completions. It will curious to see how he looks as the starter this week. It would be crazy but the last two QBs drafted may end up being the best of the crop.

It would be a good game to use the TEs and he has the ability. Hopefully he gets a shot.

They nailed 3 drafts in a row (2010-Okung, Thomas, Tate, Chancellor; 2011-Carpenter, Wright, Sherman, Maxwell, Smith; 2012-Irvin, Wagner, Wilson, Sweezy). That is 13 starter-caliber players in 3 years. That's how you get really good, really fast. However, of those 13, how many are left with the team.....2, Wilson and Wagner. In the last 9 years, they have drafted only 8 of those types of players (Lewis, Metcalf, Carson, Ifedi, Reed, Clark, Lockett, and Britt). Only Lewis, Metcalf, Carson, and Lockett are still with the team. So they have 5 original draftees as major contributors from their last 12 drafts. From what I have seen over the years, you need at least 2 main contributors a year from the draft to remain at least competitive. Those teams stay around 7-9 to 9-7. The teams that have a franchise QB, add 2-3 wins. So you can look at teams like KC and see that even with Mahomes, they are in decline. Every year they lose someone like Fisher or Peters, who were stud draftees and replace them with very average players. Since drafting Mahomes, they only have two players that would fit that criteria, Hardman and Edwards-Helaire and even now, Hardman is borderline at best.

Hicks, James, Holtz out for Sunday. Nall up and based on the need for an extra blocker, should see some snaps. Danny T also activated from IR, and Gipson (S) should play.

I doubt they pull the trigger, but Dalton is a little more mobile than Foles. That was my thinking. Maybe one more bad game and loss by Smith will change their minds. Not many teams have the QB room like the Bears. Denver and New Orleans are also options. Bridgewater is hurt and they are avoiding Winston who is only averaging 153 yards a game passing. I would be shocked if all 3 were on the roster the entire year.

I don't expect much from Smith. Wilson literally would win 3-4 games singlehandedly. With one of the worst defenses in the league, and in the NFC West, I don't expect them to win more than 1-2 in their next 6. That would put them at best at 4-7 with 6 to play. That's if Wilson can come back in 6 weeks which would be miraculous. Seattle is really interesting. They won the SB, then lost it the following year (2014) but have not really done anything of note since then. Hard to believe Carroll not running BeastMode for the win was 7.5 yrs ago.

It looks like Russell Wilson will be out 6-8 weeks (my fantasy season is over), that would be a perfect location for someone like Dalton.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/10/08/damon-arnette-trayvon-mullen-wont-play-sunday/ The Raiders have 2 of their top 3 CBs out. They are starting Nate Hobbs across from Hayward with one of Amik Robertson or Keisean Nixon in the slot. What a huge break for the Bears. Zero excuses to lose this game.

That was when we identified our coverage units sucked. He had a 34 yard punt return in the preseason against the Bears. In total, 3 punt returns for 50 yards. That is a lot of field position on 3 plays.

DVOA is great because it adjusts based on the opponent's defense making the stat a little more realistic than QB Rating or QBR. Meaning if you are playing a tougher defense the player is not expected to get the same stats per play as against a lesser defense. If Fields has similar games like he did against Detroit for the rest of the season, he will probably finish in the top half of the league, however, even with one decent game against Detroit, he still has a huge hole to dig out of. I just thought it was interesting that he was literally the worst rated QB in terms of DVOA ever. That seems almost impossible considering how he looked against Detroit.

To me, Gilmore is overrated and aging. Unless we were going all-in this year, I didn't think it would be a good pickup. However, if Grant is effective, they can look to re-sign him in the offseason. For Smith, the injury history and coverage skills scare me >

So I was looking around at some stats (go figure) and right now Fields has the lowest DVOA of any QB, ever (for qualified QBs based on attempts). Right now he is dead last in the NFL with a DVOA of -92.5%. Here are the lowest qualified QBs by year for the last 10 years. If Fields ends the year there, it will be 3 years in a row for Ohio St QBs, and not company to be in. 2020 - Haskins -40.2% 2019 - Haskins -42% 2018 - Rosen -53.7% 2017 - Kizer -34.5% 2016 - Goff -74.8% 2015 - Foles -27.9% 2014 - McCown -41.9% 2013 - Weeden -36.1% 2012 - Quinn -43.8% 2011 - Gabbert -46.5% His QB rating is 53.9 (2nd to last) and his QBR is 16.9 (last) in the NFL for qualified players. That is 3 different metrics, all have him basically last. The Cleveland game and the Cincy game to an extent have skewed his stats so bad that I think the league is going to underestimate him. CLE and CIN combined, he was 12-33 for 128 yds and an INT. Against DET he went 11-17 for 209 and an INT. He has yet to throw a TD, which is not helping any of his stats. It is just interesting to see how bad he is stat-wise compared to what I saw on Sunday. I hope he proves everyone and the metrics wrong on Sunday with a strong all-around game.

Smith has dealt with a lot of injuries himself. Good signing, they must like Smiths. 3rd one on the roster, correct?

In the Division, Kirk Cousins is playing the best in his career and the Vikings are 1-3. After Detroit, they get CAR, then their bye (super early) and then DAL, BAL, LAC, GB, and SF. There is a chance that they are out of playoff contention before playing the Bears one time (first game is 12/20) in Week 15. GB starts a tough stretch with the Bears next week, then WAS, ARZ, KC, SEA, MIN, LAR. After the bye, they get the Bears again, then BAL, CLE, MIN before DET in Week 18. I assume they will be using that week as a bye week. The Bears need them to lose at least 6 more times, preferably 7. If you give them losses to KC, LAR, ARZ, BAL, then one to CHI and one to MIN, that is 6 losses and they still have to beat WAS, SEA, CLE, and CHI and MIN once. I would give them wins (6) against CIN, DET, CHI, MIN x2, WAS, then have them split (1) SEA, CLE, and losses to ARZ, KC, LAR, BAL, and CHI. That is 7-6 to finish 10-7.

At the quarter point in the season, in the NFC Playoff picture, you have ARZ, DAL, TB, and GB as division leaders with LAR and CAR as the top 2 wild card teams. Then you have 5 teams tied at 2-2 (WAS, CHI, SEA, SF, and NO) for the final wild-card spot. WAS and NO are not very good, I think they will both fade. So it will come down to CHI, SEA, and SF for the last spot unless CAR fades, which is possible. The NFC West is brutal with ARZ, LAR, SEA, and SF. Those teams are going to beat up on each other, which will help the Bears.

I think this is still pretty accurate, though I would swap PIT and ARZ, and swap SF and DET. With Fields starting, they should beat LVR, PIT, MIN, DET, and NYG. They will still probably lose to TB, ARZ, and GB on the road. They should be able to go at least 2-3 vs GB, SF, BAL, SEA, MIN. That is 9 wins. If they can sneak a 3-2 record out of those 5, that is a 10-win team.

Not that someone from above, but maybe!

MadLith, I think your letter worked lol.