adam

Are you sure you want to give up a 10th Rounder for him?

Another year of Gipson back there with Jackson, which will be useful. People forget that Gipson didn't have an offseason due to Covid, so he should be better, which will also make Jackson better. I think the entire secondary will be better without Pagano.

I can't think of another player or QB that has had this much of an impact before ever playing a single down. He is doing and saying all the right things; I'm really still shocked we drafted him.

Great news, with him the front 7 is a top 5 unit.

10th by overall value and 12th by AAV: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/sort-value/running-back/limit-30/ I am seeing $1.75M left in 2023 and $3.5M left in 2022. I guess it just depends on how you view him in this offense. I just hope he didn't lose any agility or change of direction ability as that was his only A+ trait.

So here is a list of the recent WR leaders in receptions and yards with their career AV and games played, and an average value per game. Robinson comes in at #17. From the top 20 players in receptions, Robinson had the 16th best QB rating and was 21st in TDs, and only Marvin Jones had a lower YAC AVG than Robinson (39th) in the top 40. Robinson only had 319 YAC. So if you strictly go off receptions, ARob has been a top 10 WR, for yards, top 15, and TDs, top 20. So just with those numbers, you can say he should be paid between 10-15 which still comes in higher than his AV rating at #17. Jones AV 119, G 135 .882 (signed for $22M AAV) Thomas AV 60, G 70 .857 (signed for $19.25M AAV) Hill AV - 62, G 74 .838 (signed for $18M AAV) ----------------------------------------------- AJ Brown AV 23, G 30 .767 Jefferson AV 12, G 16 .750 --------------------------------------------- Diggs AV 61, G 86 .709 (signed for $14.4M AAV) Beckham AV 57, G 82 .695 (signed for $18M AAV) Metcalf AV 21, G 32 .656 Cooks AV 66, G 103 .641 (signed for $16.2M AAV) Allen AV 63, G 100 .630 (signed for $20M AAV) Hopkins AV 79, G 126 .627 (signed for $27.3M AAV) Adams AV 62, G 100 .620 (signed for $14.5M AAV) Evans AV 65, G 106 .613 (signed for $16.5M AAV) ---------------------------------------- Kupp AV 31, G 54 .574 (signed for $15.75M) Ridley AV 25, G 44 .568 DJ Moore AV 26, G 46 .565 Robinson AV 48, G 88 .545 (Franchise $17.8M AAV) Smith-Schuster AV 31, G 58 .534 (signed for $8M AAV) Cooper AV 49, G 93 .527 (signed for $20M AAV) Lockett AV 50, G 95 .526 (signed for $17.25M AAV) Landry AV 57, G 111 .514 (signed for $15.1M AAV) Golladay AV 24, G 47 .511 (signed for $18M AAV) Woods AV 59, G 116 .508 (signed for $16.25 AAV) ----------------------------------------- Thielen AV 48, G 105 .457 (signed for $16M AAV) So I can understand their concern. Can they afford to pay him as one of the top two tiers when he is performing more in the 3rd and 4th tier?

It is funny how that works. The NFL and media basically crap on Fields leading up to the draft, and now spotlight him in the preseason with all 3 games televised. All of Fields' jerseys are top 10 sellers online and I am sure they are watching the search hits and seeing the national interest in Fields. What a difference a few years make. The Bears were the clown shoes of the league for trading up for Trubisky and now we get to see Trubisky vs Fields on national TV in the preseason lol.

I think people totally miss what Cohen brings to the table; he is basically a slot receiver out of the backfield. Did anyone know that he finished in the top 30 in the NFL for receptions in both 2019 and 2018? That was partly because of Trubisky, but he was a very reliable outlet for the QB. He creates a lot of mismatch issues for the defense because if he is in the backfield, the defense runs out a LB, then they send him out wide and it is basically an auto reception. He had 79 receptions in 2019 (22nd in NFL and 4th for RBs) and 71 in 2018 which led the team (30th in NFL and 6th for RBs). Mooney ultimately replaced those in 2020, so we will see what that will look like this year if Cohen is out again. Another interesting note is that the Bears signed Cohen to a top 10 RB contract, I always thought that was high, but if they viewed him more as a slot WR, then that makes more sense. If not, that was a very big overpay for an RB2. Depending on how things go, he may end up as a cap casualty (after 2022) when they need to pay Monty in 2023.

OMG yes, 61 receptions on 98 targets, and over half of the non-receptions were terrible throws by the QB and should've been receptions. He should've had closer to 75 receptions and 800 yards receiving.

I am a late 70's fan, so I am about a decade behind you, but close enough, so I feel your pain. Cutler is probably the closest thing we have had to a franchise QB that we ever had. 7 years as the leading passer and owns 4 out of the 5 top passing seasons in Bears history (Kramer #1). Kramer was such an anomaly too. Had one career year with the Bears at age 31 and only topped 2K yards in one other season his entire career and was out of the league the following year. Fields is just different. I remember all the recent QB draft picks and Fields is light years ahead of all of them Trubisky, Grossman, McNown, and Peter Freakin Tom Willis (3rd Round). There is no comparison, none of them came as ready and qualified as Fields is. Outside of injury, there is no way that Fields doesn't become the franchise leader for every major QB category. If he starts by Week 3, he will hit 4K and 30 TDs. I am that confident in him. Look what Justin Herbert did with LAC. I feel like Fields will have comparable numbers.

Jason, the value of the QB position is so much more than any other position. So the weight of the grade on the GPA is so much more than any other. Teams give up 3 first-rounders for a top QB. That could be an OT, LB, and CB. In the case of Fields though, those teams said Goff+Sewell was better than Fields, Darnold+Horn was better than Fields, etc, etc. There is a reason why those teams are continually in the bottom half of the league. Denver was crazy, they picked up Fuller which made their defense even better and were a good QB away from competing and decided to go with Lock and Surtain. Most top 10 teams have a top 10 QB. Those teams are going with bottom half QBs hoping the rest of team will carry them. My prediction is they all will be in the bottom half of the league at the end of the year (dated 7/18/2021).

Wow, that would put him out the first 6 weeks. The media really hasn't mentioned this much. If that is the case, someone like Herbert is a lock for the roster.

I don't know how I missed this, but there have been multiple reports about Cohen not looking very good: June 16th and July 9th. Both reports say he was walking stiff, etc. He tore his ACL in late September, so we are 9 months post injury/surgery. From reading articles, that is about the time most athletes come back from the injury. With less than 2 months until the season, there is a chance he may not be ready Week 1. Something to monitor, because Cohen's entire game revolves around his ability to change direction and his lateral quickness. If he can't do that as well, his value drops to almost zero.

Check this out. From his NFL.COM draft profile page, these are his weaknesses: Weaknesses Needs to improve pocket mobility for clean launch points. (Pocket mobility is not an issue, did they watch any of his tape?) Below-average feel for edge pressure, running himself into pressure points. (I did not see this on tape) Field vision is average in face of the blitz. (So average is now a weakness, LOL!) Missed open blitz beaters in the middle of the field against Indiana. (It was 1 freaking game, are they serious?) Gradual operation time prevents expedited release. (This is just making stuff up now) Needs to release ball earlier on anticipatory throws. (How would they know which throws are anticipatory and when he was supposed to release the ball?) Needs to improve eye manipulation as a pro. (I saw him look off many safeties, so I guess moving his head is not considered moving your eyes) Stagnant eyes invite coverage to the passing party. (Same comment, anymore eye comments and we will need an optometrist) Forces receivers to slow for deep throws. (He has been lauded for his deep ball accuracy) Pet spin move as runner got him clocked against Clemson. (It was 1 freaking play, are they serious?) Yet from the analytics side of the media, he was the most accurate deep ball passer, most accurate under pressure, and scored the highest on aptitude tests. \ Pre-Draft Rankings https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings - 5th (2nd QB) https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/ - 5th (2nd QB) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-player-ranking-big-board/1k5tiozjs62rl1k1weni83rroi - 9th (4th QB) http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings/_/year/2021 - 11th (4th QB) - ESPN nailed it, wow, and they had Mac Jones as 15th too https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-profiles-pffs-top-300-draft-prospects - 3rd (3rd QB) https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-150-prospects-in-the-2021-nfl-draft-class - 8th (4th QB) https://www.drafttek.com/2021-NFL-Draft-Big-Board/Top-NFL-Draft-Prospects-2021-Page-1.asp - 6th (3rd QB) So this is the weird part, all of these media outlets still had him ranked in the top 9, outside of ESPN at 11, and a bunch had him in the top 5, and he slid to #11? This is how the draft played out after Miami selected Jaylen Waddle at #6: Detroit, with Jared Goff at QB, at #7 took Penei Sewell, OT. OK, I get it, everything starts in the trenches, but you are saying that you believe Goff is better than Fields. Carolina, with Sam Darnold at QB took Jaycee Horn, CB? Darnold's backup is Will Grier. Darnold flopped worst than Trubisky, yet he is your starter and better than Fields? Denver, at #9, with Drew Lock at QB, took Pat Surtain, C. They just signed Kyle Fuller, so again, they are saying Drew Lock is better than Fields. Then the Eagles traded up to #10, it has to be for Fields right? Nope they took DeVonta Smith, WR with Jalen Hurts at QB? Hurts better than Fields? Then even the NY Giants, traded out of the position with the Bears, and they have Daniel freaking Jones at QB???? So Jones > Fields? Just like Watson and Mahomes, teams completely passed on them to have them fall to 10 and 12. Buffalo traded with KC before they had Allen. Cleveland had 2 chances at these QBs, picked Garrett #1, then traded #12 which ultimately was used on Watson. All the teams in the top 12 with an older QB or bad QB did not get enough flack for passing on these guys. Only the Bears because they took Trubisky.

I feel ya. We have been so close many times. The Trubisky one hurt because no one wanted him, so we have been trying to be really optimistic for the last 4 years. There is a reason he signed as a backup for that amount. At least we aren't Cleveland. In the last 40 years, before they drafted Mayfield, their top 2 QBs were Brian Sipe and Bernie Kosar. In that same timeframe, we had McMahon, Harbaugh, Kramer, and Cutler which accounted for 20 seasons of that 40.

We very much lucked into Fields. He probably should've been the #1 pick. The misinformation campaign really mislabeled Fields. There is no way you can look at tape of each of the top 5 QBs in this draft and say Fields is the 4th best. There is no way. Wilson played at BYU and was average until a great 2020 season against bad competition. He has 9x 300 yd games (Western Michigan, Toledo, SD St, Troy, LA Tech, Houston, Boise St, SD St, and Cen. FL. Boise St was the only legit opponent. Lance played 1 game in 2020 and played D2 opponents his entire career. He has only 1x 300 yd game in his career against Western Illinois. That was actually his only game over 250 yds passing in 2019. Somehow that was worthy of the #3 pick (and 3 first round picks). SF gets way too much credit for their draft picks, they passed on Mahomes and Watson, then Jackson, and now Fields. Lawrence was anointed as the #1 pick but outside of his size, he still reminds me of a more athletic Mike Glennon. He is the only one I can see being drafted ahead of Fields.

Awesome analysis of the Bears QB situation and Fields. Also shows how terrible Trubisky and Foles were last year. Worth the time.

Montgomery is a top 5 back and Gibson has huge upside. The QB situation in WAS is the only thing that is concerning and that would impact him. I added a Keeper Tracker at the end of the first post.

That's highway robbery, I wanted Gibson last year, but waited too long (obviously). I should've taken in him in the 7-8th.

No, not bad at all. Basically, 2 starters locked in without losing a top 3 pick.

Mongo, Dak was a 5th round pick and Hockenson was a 14th rounder, so that would cost a 4th for Dak (1 round) and a 12th for Hockenson (2 rounds).

The Bears would have to be hit with a ton of injuries not to hit 8 wins.

The media literally handed us Justin Fields. He should've been at worst the #2 pick. He has a bad throwing motion (Simms), he is a one-read QB, he is not accurate, he is bad under pressure, Ohio State QB, black QB, etc, etc. It goes on and on. You didn't see any of that about Wilson, Lance, or Jones. Look at Wilson's stats from 2020 and tell me how he was picked that high? Then look at Lance's competition and how many 300 yard games he had in his career. How did these guys go before Fields? Even Lawrence, I know he was the anointed one, but Jacksonville probably should've selected Fields instead. Lawrence reminds me of a more athletic Mike Glennon. I never thought Fields would be available, and we got him at #11. SF used 3x first rounders on Lance, LMAO!

I can't wait for the first pancake. He really is going to bring some much needed nasty to the O-Line. Massie and Leno were very passive players. I can see the rest of the guys following suit.

Anytime his name comes up, I think of this: