adam

I also think we are very underrated at our skill positions, there are at least 7 legit targets on the team (ARob, Mooney, Monty, Williams, Cohen, Kmet, and Graham). That does not even account for Goodwin (who looks great), Byrd (led the Pats in receiving), Newsome, and Herbert.

Justin Herbert played in 15 games as a rookie with no training camp. He threw for 4336 yds, 31 TD, and 10 INT. In his last 2 years of college, Herbert threw for over 6600 yds (245 YPG) with 61 TD and 14 INT in 27 games. In 5 fewer games due to COVID, Fields had 63 TD and 9 INT with 268 YPG. The best comparison is they both played Wisconsin within a few weeks of each other: In the Big 10 Championship Game, Fields was 19-31, 299 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT. In the Rose Bowl, Herbert was 14-20, 138 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT against the same defense.

Until they play in the league, I don't know if there is any way to know if they can read an NFL defense or not, but Fields did score very high on his aptitude tests, which means he has the capacity to. The worst case for me is better than Kyler Murray. I think Fields is well beyond Trubisky already.

and you are already paid in full!

That's good news then.

Good news, Eddie Goldman spotted near Halas Hall, at gym. The bad news, benching 155 with weak resistance bands at 300+ lbs, hopefully that was his warm up.

Soldier Field has the lowest capacity in the NFL and 20K less than the biggest stadium. Just think how much louder our fanbase could be with 20K more fans. How about the 10-year waiting list for season tickets? You could cut that in half overnight. Parking and traffic are ridiculous, bathrooms and amenities are currently outdated and limited. Make a retractable dome that would give us a Super Bowl, which would be awesome. For travelers, it would be an easy 20-minute drive from O'Hare to Arlington Heights. For the team, going from Lake Forest to Arlington Heights is much easier than going from LF to Soldier Field. There are just too many benefits that it feels like a no-brainer.

With the unknowns of COVID at the time, I had no issues with any player opting out last year. For this year though, for him to miss part of the offseason program and get fined for it as an unexcused absence after you have already been off for over a year seems very questionable. I mean he hasn't played since December 22nd, 2019 (1 snap). It is going to be 20 months since he had a meaningful rep in the NFL. How many people get paid millions to do nothing for 20 months (besides Congress)? To me it seems like he is milking the teet at this point and I wouldn't be surprised if he retires. I could be totally off base on this but like others have said, a simple Tweet, Instagram post, a message through his agent that says he is committed to the team and will be there in shape on Day 1 of Training Camp. How hard is that?

So you guys are in agreement on 5-5 with 7 games up for grabs. A 12-win best case scenario and 5-win worst case scenario with 8.5-8.5 right in the middle. I know the AFC North is tough, but I feel like we will at least split with them. Wins against CIN and PIT, losses against BAL and CLE.

I think he probably was horribly out of shape; easy to do as a big guy, and didn't want to show up like that. At least that is what I am hoping for. Hit the gym and the keto diet for 6 weeks and show up like nothing happened.

Previous Keepers, ineligible for Keeper status in 2021: Michael Thomas - PapaBear Derrick Henry - Destined for... Chris Godwin - The Bunny DJ Moore - Victorious S... Cooper Kupp - The Mad Lith... Austin Ekeler - Nips&Tips Melvin Gordon III - SAVAGEw/LOOS... Kenyan Drake - Run dem pockets A.J. Green - Nopper Adrian Peterson - Run dem pockets Michael Gallup - MotM Jordan Howard - MotM Lamar Jackson - Victorious S... Kareem Hunt - The Mad Lith... Darren Waller - SAVAGEw/LOOS...

2020 Draft Results: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/2020/f1/819234/draftresults?pspid=782200945&activity=draftresults Final Rosters: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/119614/lastseason You can't keep a keeper two years in a row and you had to draft the player and have them on your final roster.

Correct me if I am wrong but the first keeper is 1 round, so a 4th round pick costs a 3rd rounder this year. If you choose a second keeper, that one costs 2 rounds, so a 6th will cost a 4th. If you happen to choose two picks with the same round comp (4>3 and 5>3), just swap the round comp so (4>2, 5>4), so you still give up 3 rounds total for 2 keepers.

The league is live now so you can set up your draft rankings: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/119614 LeagueSafe link: https://www.leaguesafe.com/join/3981970/talkbears-keeper-2021 If you already know your keepers, please start posting them here. Thanks, Management

They went 12-4 in 2018 and this roster looks to be stronger, like you said, from top to bottom. So if that is the case, 11 wins seems possible.

A lot of guys change once they get paid. Goldman would have to pay back millions in bonuses if he decides to retire. So I would be shocked if he decided to retire and pay back that money.

Very interesting comparison: Dalton - 10 seasons, 74-66-2, 33764 yds, 234 YPG, 62.2%, 218 TD, 126 INT, 7.1 Y/A, yrs with QBR over 50: 5, Pro Bowl: 3, 4K Yard seasons: 2 Cutler - 12 seasons, 74-79-0, 35133 yds, 229 YPG, 62.0%, 227 TD, 160 INT, 7.1 Y/A, yrs with QBR over 50: 7, Pro Bowl: 1, 4K Yard seasons: 1

7.5 does feel low, even if they underachieve, that is probably 8 wins. Great breakdown, I was thinking 9-10 wins and that may come down to if Rodgers plays or not. I almost think that is a 2-game shift if he plays or not. We win both if Love plays and we lose both if Rodgers plays. In regards to your projections, I can't see the Bears losing to Detroit, regardless of the short week or not. I also think that the Bears will be very competitive against Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Bears coming off a bye). 3 straight losses and 6 out of 8 in the meat of the schedule may spell the end of Nagy if that happens. I'm thinking the 7th seed is in reach and it will come down to Week 17 in Minnesota. Jason, so is this projection with Dalton or Fields, and if you swapped them, how would you change your projections. I think Fields is going to give the team a better chance in closer games where his legs become a weapon.

I don't understand the NYC statement as we traded with SF from 3 to 2. There were several teams interested in Trubisky, and it would've been interesting to see how it all played out if we just stayed at #3.

For how well the media liked the Bears draft, the oddsmakers do not like this team. They have the T-9th lowest win total at 7.5. With a 17 game season, that is basically the old 7-9 record for a 16 game season (so a coin toss between 8-9 or 7-10). So the Bears are going to end up with a top 10 pick? What am I missing? In terms of snap counts, they lost Trubisky, Fuller, and Leno. That is really it. No offense to Mitch, but he was a terrible QB and Foles was not much better. Dalton/Fields is at least +2-3 wins. The loss of Fuller hurts the most, but it's not like Fuller was playing at an All-Pro level like he did a few years ago. Also, if you think about it this way, if Johnson takes the next step in terms of development (remember he had no offseason as a rookie), he fills Fuller's void, and we only need a CB2 to fill his shoes from last year, which is much easier to fill with Trufant, Burns, Roberson, Graham, or even Vildor. Skrine not at Nickel is a plus, regardless who fills that spot. Leno may be missed but I can't imagine Jenkins not being able to play near Leno's level last year. All Ifedi has to do to replace Massie is stand there for 1 second in front of the defender. Not hard to replace. If Goldman does return, that is a huge boost for the D-Line that feels like a free upgrade from 2020. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-win-totals-odds-predictions-best-bets-top-expert-picks-over-10-5-wins-for-l-a-rams/ Looking thru the list, I feel like they have the following teams too high: SF 10 wins - tough division to get 10 wins in, especially for a team that has only 1 winning record in the last 4 seasons and a 6-10 record last year. Cowboys 9.5 wins - I get that they got Prescott back, but that is a huge jump from a 6 win team that was in a terrible division Patriots 9 wins - 7 wins last year with basically the same team in a division that is improving? Vikings 8.5 wins - So they are going to magically jump the Bears by +2 wins from last year? Broncos 7.5 wins - They were 5-11 with a -123 pts differential, and they are going to win 2 more games? This seems like an easy bet for the under. Teams too low: PIT - 9 wins, this team won 12 last year. With a 17 game schedule, this is easily a 10 win team. WAS - 8 wins, this team has a borderline dominant defense in a bad division. 9 wins minimum. CHI - 7.5 wins, again, I would be shocked if this team didn't win at least 9 games. There were 5 teams with 4 or less wins in 2020. The odds only have 2 teams with 5 wins (DET and HOU). I would bet the under on HOU (5), DET (5), JAX (6), NYJ (6), and ATL (7). Thoughts? Who do you think is too high or too low?

So Lance had 1100 rushing yards and 2786 passing yards in 2019, thus he has an elite running game. His legs are probably better than his arm. So with a raw arm, I felt he was a huge risk at #2, especially for what SF gave up to move up to get him (Pick #12, 1st Rounder in 2022, 1st Rounder in 2023, and a 2022 3rd Rounder). I would think you would trade up to pick someone like Fields for that type of return. Miami is set up with multiple first-rounders for 2 more years.

I keep hearing about the teams with the best spots for a rookie QB, and I understand there are a bunch of factors that go into that, but at the end of the day it comes down to the core skill position players with the ball in their hands. I know coaching, scheme, O-Line, defense, and even opponents all factor into this, but it is hard for me to look at the 5 teams with 1st Round rookies and not like the position the Bears are in from a skill position standpoint. I added on extra player per roster, and for the Bears could've chosen Byrd or Goodwin, but went with Cohen. Bears Justin Fields WR1 Robinson WR2 Mooney RB1 Montgomery RB2 Williams TE1 Kmet TE2 Graham XTR Cohen - RB Jags Trevor Lawrence WR1 Chark WR2 Shenault RB1 Robinson RB2 Etienne TE1 O'Shaughnessy TE2 Ellefson XTR Jones - WR I like their running game and top 2 WRs, but their TEs are LOL, especially if they are looking at Tebow. I expect a ton of play-action and bubble screens. Jets Zach Wilson WR1 Crowder WR2 Davis RB1 Coleman RB2 Perine TE1 Herndon TE2 Brown XTR Moore (R) - WR I like the WR Corps, but Davis benefitted heavily from AJ Brown on the other side and teams stacking the box to stop Henry. Are they going to do the same with Crowder/Coleman? I doubt it. Zero help at TE either. 49ers Trey Lance WR1 Aiyuk WR2 Samuel RB1 Mostert RB2 Juszczyk TE1 Kittle TE2 Pruitt XTR Bourne - WR Kittle makes this roster and the Samuel addition is interesting, however, is Lance going to be able to go from NDST to an advanced NFL offense with a billion options on every play in one year? That is hard for me to believe and that is how the Shanahan offense works. Lacks top-end WR and Mostert has 1x 100-yd game in his career. So how good is this roster. A lot of above-average IMO. Pats Mac Jones WR1 Meyers WR2 Agholor RB1 Harris RB2 Michel TE1 Henry TE2 Smith XTR White - RB I know Bill always pulls something out of his arse but this is a very weak skill position roster. I know that makes them interchangeable, but nobody stands out. I can see a lot of RB screens, wheel routes and quick passes in this offense. So outside of Kittle as TE1, and Etienne as RB2, is there any other player from the 4 other teams that you would swap with our current player in that same position? Maybe Smith (41-448 8 TD) for Graham (50-456 8 TD) as TE2? To me, that's it. The Bears are in a really good position for Fields to excel.

Not to belabor this topic, but has anyone actually looked at Trey Lance's game logs? Please let me know if anyone else knew any of the following: 1. He only had 1x 300-yard game his entire college career (vs Western Illinois). 2. He only had 1x game with 24 or more passing attempts (31 vs Missouri State) where he ironically threw 0 TDs. 3. He had 2x games with more rushing yards than passing yards (76-62 vs SDST and 166-72 vs James Madison). 4. He only had one game with 4 or more TD passes (Butler - opening day 2019). 5. He had a total of 318 passing attempts his entire college career (Fields had 354 in 2019, Trubisky had 447 in 2016 just for perspective). I knew he was raw and he has an elite running game, but that seems like a huge risk at #2, especially trading up and giving up what they did to do that.