adam

Waldron's scripted plays are terrible. I called the first two plays, Allen in motion, zone, will throw to Allen. Almost intercepted. 2nd play, gonna be a run for sure. 3rd play, everyone running the same depth of route, no one open, sack.

Good teams beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Losing at home, to a Carolina team that is banged up would be a terrible loss. It's a home game, conference game, that you are favored in. This is a must-win. They can't take a long flight on Monday to Europe with a bad loss in their mouths.

No way are they going back. Williams is already at QB301, he is using the entire field, going thru progressions, AND making changes at the LOS. I thought this was crazy in PIT. During the Steelers press conference, Fields literally said he will not change the play at the LOS. WOW. That is why Daniels is having some early success being super efficient using a college-style offense. However, the defense always adjusts. Look at Kyler and Kingsbury in AZ. It looked amazing for about a year and a half, but fell off so bad they fired Kingsbury. Same with Chip Kelly in PHI. Kelly got 2 years, then got fired in season in his 3rd. The best option is to mix it up IMO.

I still can't believe JAX is the only winless team, and there is only one undefeated team left after 4 weeks. Parity is really working this season, probably due to all the injuries. It will be interesting to see which 3-loss team hits 1-4 this weekend, because coming back from that big of a hole is pretty much insurmountable. JAX at 0-4 already seems to be there and are probably one more loss away from firing their HC.

Good stuff. I feel like this is going to be Caleb's coming out party game, 300+ yards, multiple TDs, no picks, offense humming. Two 300-yard passing games in your first 5 games as a rookie would be impressive. Daniels' high is 254 and that is the only game he has over 250.

If the Bears traded a 4th for Allen, and if they got a later 4th from a team like KC, that would be a net negative for how little they got out of him. Also, if he is going to command a decent salary and contract in 2025, due to comp picks, he may be one you keep to have that comp pick leverage. Like compared to Herbert, who may not only get a lower offer, getting a pick for him now may be better. Regardless, you know Poles is going to be active at the deadline again this year.

There is another component to this, which are the comp picks. If they know they are not resigning him, thus no new contract, and they know the market for RBs, if the comp pick formula won't even cancel out another acquisition, then it is better to get something for him vs nothing. There is definitely some chess involved here. Far too often do the Bears let dudes walk, then got crushed by the comp pick formula and get nothing for them. You can tell Poles plays the game because of how he has handled certain transactions.

What is a great sign is that he is 6th in Intended Air Yards at 8.4 but is 3rd to last in Aggressiveness (Jackson and Mahomes are 1-2). So he is not throwing risky passes but is still throwing balls well past the LOS.

Yeah, great find, I did hear that. https://wgntv.com/sports/bears-report/finding-that-flow-caleb-williams-is-working-to-find-ways-to-win-week-to-week/#:~:text=Williams didn't commit a,3 against the Indianapolis Colts. His performance is even more impressive considering he was under MORE pressure than against the Colts, and still posted the best QB Rating under pressure in the NFL for Week 4.

Panthers listed 19 players on their injury report. That team is beat up, the Bears need to go for the juggler and destroy this team. Fly to Europe on Monday after a great game. The flight will be so much better with a dominating win. They will have all backup LBs and some of their O-Line may be out or limited. Bears by 20!

Sorry, #1 seeds in the conferences, you are correct. I was thinking that DET beat the last unbeaten team in the NFC, SEA.

CBS traditionally hates the Bears, I was shocked to see them at #14 on their Power Rankings, I was thinking they were between 15-20 right now based on their record. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/ ESPN has the Bears at #20 NFL.com has the Bears at #22 Yahoo has the Bears at #18 So an aggregate has them at 18.5 which really feels spot on.

Better than Mrs Rodgers.

I am thinking a few more weeks down the road. If he is getting so few snaps, then getting a 5th for him for 8 weeks is a pretty good deal for the Bears. The 5th in itself may not have too much value, but if it can be used to move up, then it gains some value. Like if the CAR pick ends up being between 33-36, a mid to high 5th rounder can move you into the late first like 34>31. The Bears don't have a 4th or a 6th and will get one of those from the Steelers. It is looking more and more like a 4th, which would be awesome. With the Bears being at least a year away from a deep playoff run, I would consider trading players at the deadline that will be free agents after this season: Herbert, Homer, and Allen are probably the only 3 with ANY trade value. I don't think they trade Allen, but he does fit this category. Just based on usage, maybe Scott is on the trading block too. Why waste a roster spot when the guy is not used at all?

I can see that for 4th rounders, but not pick #75. These guys went right after Amegadjie and are starting or playing significant snaps for their team: Matt Goncalves - IND Christian Haynes - SEA Zak Zinter - CLE Dominik Puni - SF

Yeah, Scott is baffling, even after the acquisition of Allen. Carter is getting the offensive snaps over Scott. For Amegadjie, he better be really good then because you don't draft a guy knowing he is going to miss a quarter of the season to then have him on the bench, especially with the issues in the interior. They could've drafted a G or C. Another odd positional pick for Poles there.

I feel like Daniels is going to be good, but is going to have a restricted game plan. He feels like DeShaun Watson athleticism and passing with a Mitch Trubisky brain. Williams is going to be a surgeon. Looking back at the tape of the last two games. In a weird way it seems like they are forcing him to play in structure longer than normal, to not be so quick to get out of the pocket. Also, he is throwing a ton of balls away, which is actually a good sign. His rating and QBR are a lot lower because of the incomplete passes, but he does throw a good number away, and several have saved a few sacks. Daniels always scared me. He is a skinnier Lamar and all it is going to take is one running play and he becomes RG4.

I hope Stevenson can improve, he seems a little off compared to how he finished the season last year. Otherwise, look at how the All-Pro CBs and Safeties from last year are performing compared to our guys: Johnson - 78.8 / 78.4 Cov (Is there any doubt who the best CB is out of this group?) Sauce 66.9 / 69.4 Cov (AP1) - Sauce is not elite. Horn 65.2 / 64.1 Cov (NFL1) - Overrated, never should've won this over JJ last year. Surtain - 59.7 / 56.5 Cov - People always put him in the top tier of CBs, why? Bland (IR) Byard 74.3 / 68.6 (The vet is leading the way) Brisker 67.2 / 65.5 Cov (Mr. Consistent and improving) Hamilton 66.9 / 62.0 Cov (AP1) - Down year on an amazing defense. Winfield Jr. 60.3 / 57.3 Cov (AP1) - Always overrated, should've never won it last year. Jackson 55.2 / 61.0 Cov - Poor Eddie Jackson, never recovered from that injury. I really hope some of our guys get recognized this year.

Bears by double digits. Thinking of the best players on each team, the superstars are who win it for you. The Bears basically have the edge in 18 of 22 positions. The 4 spots the Panthers have the edge are on the O-Line (go figure). So if those 4 spots are more important than the other 18, the Bears will have to move to Milwaukee. Offense vs Offense Williams, Swift, Roschon, Kmet, Moore, Allen, Odunze vs Dalton, Hubbard, Sanders, Tremble, Johnson, Thielen, Leggette Defense vs Defense Sweat, Billings, Dexter, Hardy, Edmunds, Edwards, Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Sanborn, Byard, Brisker vs Clowney, Robinson, Tuttle, Peevy, Harris, Jewell, Cherelus, Jackson, Horn, Woods, Scott The closest they have is Johnson CB1 (78.8 PFF) vs Horn CB1 (65.2 PFF) and that is not even close.

If Caleb throws for 213 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs, and rushes for 21 yards against CAR. He would be on pace for a top 4 rookie QB season ever. After 5 games, here are the only 3 rookie QBs that had over 1K passing yards, over 60% Comp%, 5 TD Passes (1 per game), 4 or fewer INTs (less than 1 per game), and 100 rushing yards (20 per game): Herbert, Watson, Minshew, that's it. If you project that out for an entire season. Only 3 rookie QBs in NFL history have thrown for 3200 yds with 200 per game, 1 TD/G, had less than 1 INT/G, and rushed for more than 20 Y/G. Murray, RG3, and Minshew. Murray and Minshew both did it in 2019. Using Murray as a template (Kingsbury connection): Murray 349-542, 3722 yds, 64.4%, 20 TD, 12 INT, 544 Rushing Yds. Murray's averages: 22-34 Comp-Att/G, 232 Y/G, 64.4%, 1.25 TD/G, 0.75 INT/G, 34 Rush Yd/G Williams' averages: 22-35 Comp-Att/G, 197 Y/G, 61.7%, 0.75 TD/G, 1.0 INT/G, 20 Rush Yd/G (current averages) Williams is already super close to the pace and if he continually improves, he may surpass some of Murray's numbers by the end of the year. Removing the rushing component, 8 more QBs would qualify: Herbert, Prescott, Stroud, Mayfield, Mac Jones, Bradford, Ryan, and Wentz. That would still make it a top 9 rookie QB season ever. So Williams is right on track already.

It is interesting because the two undefeated teams are the ones who don't get the calls against them. DET and KC. So if you look at the current penalty count, DET and KC should have at least 10 more.

Yeah, that was a BS call, and you are correct, KC RT literally lines up a foot back AND leaves early.

I will give Waldron the benefit of the doubt, but as long as each quarter of the season is better than the previous one, the Bears should be in the thick of the playoff race and a WC spot the entire season and it will probably come down to Week 18.

When questioned at the press conferences, he just comes across sometimes like he is unsure of himself, but listening to him here, he is rattling off offensive plays, concepts, player performances, practice habits, all in great detail. I feel more confident in him than I did before listening to this to be honest.

The next 5 games are going to be super interesting. The Bears should be favored in 4 games, and possibly all 5. Right now the only game they are not favored in is JAX at a neutral site. Just looking at a few team rating systems, the Bears are 16th using Sagarin Ratings (used for betting), 23rd in DVOA, and 19th in EPA/P. Sagarin Ratings weigh recent games more heavily than older games. The Bears have the 3 worst teams still left on their schedule based on the collective rankings, CAR, JAX, and NE. These are bad teams and must wins for the Bears. Then they have a comparable game against ARZ and their toughest matchup surprisingly against WAS. Bears 2-2 (16th - Sagarin Ratings) / 23rd DVOA / 19th EPA/P - AVG Rating=19th vs CAR 1-3 (32nd - Sagarin Ratings) / 28th DVOA / 28th EPA/P - AVG Rating=29th (DraftKings have Bears -3.5) vs JAX 0-4 (26th - Sagarin Ratings) / 30th DVOA / 31st EPA/P - AVG Rating=29th (DraftKings have Bears +1) BYE @ WAS 3-1 (23rd - Sagarin Ratings) / 16th DVOA / 11th EPA/P - AVG Rating=17th (DraftKings have Bears -2) @ ARZ 1-3 (25th - Sagarin Ratings) / 22nd DVOA / 21st EPA/P - AVG Rating=23rd (DraftKings have Bears -1.5) vs NE 1-3 (30th - Sagarin Ratings) / 29th DVOA / 32nd EPA/P - AVG Rating=30th (DraftKings have Bears -5.5) So is 3-2 a success in these next 5 because I almost feel like they need to go 4-1 in this stretch and hit GB at 6-3. vs GB 2-2 - 10th EPA vs MIN 4-0 - 3rd EPA @ DET (TNF) 3-1 - 6th EPA @ SF (after mini bye) 1-3 - 4th EPA @ MIN 4-0 - 3rd EPA vs DET 3-1 - 6th EPA vs SEA 3-1 - 7th EPA @ GB 2-2 - 10th EPA 22-10 (18-6 when they are not playing each other) The worst team according to EPA is GB who are 10th. So the Bears last 8 games will be against top 10 EPA teams. Just based on odds, they will probably only win between 1-3 of the final 8 and finish between 7 and 9 wins. Going 3-5 thru that gauntlet and finishing 9-8 would be an accomplishment. It would be epic to split the division and beat one of SF or SEA and go 4-4 to finish 10-7, but they need to improve weekly to have a shot at that.