adam

Correct me if I am wrong but the first keeper is 1 round, so a 4th round pick costs a 3rd rounder this year. If you choose a second keeper, that one costs 2 rounds, so a 6th will cost a 4th. If you happen to choose two picks with the same round comp (4>3 and 5>3), just swap the round comp so (4>2, 5>4), so you still give up 3 rounds total for 2 keepers.

The league is live now so you can set up your draft rankings: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/119614 LeagueSafe link: https://www.leaguesafe.com/join/3981970/talkbears-keeper-2021 If you already know your keepers, please start posting them here. Thanks, Management

They went 12-4 in 2018 and this roster looks to be stronger, like you said, from top to bottom. So if that is the case, 11 wins seems possible.

A lot of guys change once they get paid. Goldman would have to pay back millions in bonuses if he decides to retire. So I would be shocked if he decided to retire and pay back that money.

Very interesting comparison: Dalton - 10 seasons, 74-66-2, 33764 yds, 234 YPG, 62.2%, 218 TD, 126 INT, 7.1 Y/A, yrs with QBR over 50: 5, Pro Bowl: 3, 4K Yard seasons: 2 Cutler - 12 seasons, 74-79-0, 35133 yds, 229 YPG, 62.0%, 227 TD, 160 INT, 7.1 Y/A, yrs with QBR over 50: 7, Pro Bowl: 1, 4K Yard seasons: 1

7.5 does feel low, even if they underachieve, that is probably 8 wins. Great breakdown, I was thinking 9-10 wins and that may come down to if Rodgers plays or not. I almost think that is a 2-game shift if he plays or not. We win both if Love plays and we lose both if Rodgers plays. In regards to your projections, I can't see the Bears losing to Detroit, regardless of the short week or not. I also think that the Bears will be very competitive against Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Bears coming off a bye). 3 straight losses and 6 out of 8 in the meat of the schedule may spell the end of Nagy if that happens. I'm thinking the 7th seed is in reach and it will come down to Week 17 in Minnesota. Jason, so is this projection with Dalton or Fields, and if you swapped them, how would you change your projections. I think Fields is going to give the team a better chance in closer games where his legs become a weapon.

I don't understand the NYC statement as we traded with SF from 3 to 2. There were several teams interested in Trubisky, and it would've been interesting to see how it all played out if we just stayed at #3.

For how well the media liked the Bears draft, the oddsmakers do not like this team. They have the T-9th lowest win total at 7.5. With a 17 game season, that is basically the old 7-9 record for a 16 game season (so a coin toss between 8-9 or 7-10). So the Bears are going to end up with a top 10 pick? What am I missing? In terms of snap counts, they lost Trubisky, Fuller, and Leno. That is really it. No offense to Mitch, but he was a terrible QB and Foles was not much better. Dalton/Fields is at least +2-3 wins. The loss of Fuller hurts the most, but it's not like Fuller was playing at an All-Pro level like he did a few years ago. Also, if you think about it this way, if Johnson takes the next step in terms of development (remember he had no offseason as a rookie), he fills Fuller's void, and we only need a CB2 to fill his shoes from last year, which is much easier to fill with Trufant, Burns, Roberson, Graham, or even Vildor. Skrine not at Nickel is a plus, regardless who fills that spot. Leno may be missed but I can't imagine Jenkins not being able to play near Leno's level last year. All Ifedi has to do to replace Massie is stand there for 1 second in front of the defender. Not hard to replace. If Goldman does return, that is a huge boost for the D-Line that feels like a free upgrade from 2020. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-win-totals-odds-predictions-best-bets-top-expert-picks-over-10-5-wins-for-l-a-rams/ Looking thru the list, I feel like they have the following teams too high: SF 10 wins - tough division to get 10 wins in, especially for a team that has only 1 winning record in the last 4 seasons and a 6-10 record last year. Cowboys 9.5 wins - I get that they got Prescott back, but that is a huge jump from a 6 win team that was in a terrible division Patriots 9 wins - 7 wins last year with basically the same team in a division that is improving? Vikings 8.5 wins - So they are going to magically jump the Bears by +2 wins from last year? Broncos 7.5 wins - They were 5-11 with a -123 pts differential, and they are going to win 2 more games? This seems like an easy bet for the under. Teams too low: PIT - 9 wins, this team won 12 last year. With a 17 game schedule, this is easily a 10 win team. WAS - 8 wins, this team has a borderline dominant defense in a bad division. 9 wins minimum. CHI - 7.5 wins, again, I would be shocked if this team didn't win at least 9 games. There were 5 teams with 4 or less wins in 2020. The odds only have 2 teams with 5 wins (DET and HOU). I would bet the under on HOU (5), DET (5), JAX (6), NYJ (6), and ATL (7). Thoughts? Who do you think is too high or too low?

So Lance had 1100 rushing yards and 2786 passing yards in 2019, thus he has an elite running game. His legs are probably better than his arm. So with a raw arm, I felt he was a huge risk at #2, especially for what SF gave up to move up to get him (Pick #12, 1st Rounder in 2022, 1st Rounder in 2023, and a 2022 3rd Rounder). I would think you would trade up to pick someone like Fields for that type of return. Miami is set up with multiple first-rounders for 2 more years.

I keep hearing about the teams with the best spots for a rookie QB, and I understand there are a bunch of factors that go into that, but at the end of the day it comes down to the core skill position players with the ball in their hands. I know coaching, scheme, O-Line, defense, and even opponents all factor into this, but it is hard for me to look at the 5 teams with 1st Round rookies and not like the position the Bears are in from a skill position standpoint. I added on extra player per roster, and for the Bears could've chosen Byrd or Goodwin, but went with Cohen. Bears Justin Fields WR1 Robinson WR2 Mooney RB1 Montgomery RB2 Williams TE1 Kmet TE2 Graham XTR Cohen - RB Jags Trevor Lawrence WR1 Chark WR2 Shenault RB1 Robinson RB2 Etienne TE1 O'Shaughnessy TE2 Ellefson XTR Jones - WR I like their running game and top 2 WRs, but their TEs are LOL, especially if they are looking at Tebow. I expect a ton of play-action and bubble screens. Jets Zach Wilson WR1 Crowder WR2 Davis RB1 Coleman RB2 Perine TE1 Herndon TE2 Brown XTR Moore (R) - WR I like the WR Corps, but Davis benefitted heavily from AJ Brown on the other side and teams stacking the box to stop Henry. Are they going to do the same with Crowder/Coleman? I doubt it. Zero help at TE either. 49ers Trey Lance WR1 Aiyuk WR2 Samuel RB1 Mostert RB2 Juszczyk TE1 Kittle TE2 Pruitt XTR Bourne - WR Kittle makes this roster and the Samuel addition is interesting, however, is Lance going to be able to go from NDST to an advanced NFL offense with a billion options on every play in one year? That is hard for me to believe and that is how the Shanahan offense works. Lacks top-end WR and Mostert has 1x 100-yd game in his career. So how good is this roster. A lot of above-average IMO. Pats Mac Jones WR1 Meyers WR2 Agholor RB1 Harris RB2 Michel TE1 Henry TE2 Smith XTR White - RB I know Bill always pulls something out of his arse but this is a very weak skill position roster. I know that makes them interchangeable, but nobody stands out. I can see a lot of RB screens, wheel routes and quick passes in this offense. So outside of Kittle as TE1, and Etienne as RB2, is there any other player from the 4 other teams that you would swap with our current player in that same position? Maybe Smith (41-448 8 TD) for Graham (50-456 8 TD) as TE2? To me, that's it. The Bears are in a really good position for Fields to excel.

Not to belabor this topic, but has anyone actually looked at Trey Lance's game logs? Please let me know if anyone else knew any of the following: 1. He only had 1x 300-yard game his entire college career (vs Western Illinois). 2. He only had 1x game with 24 or more passing attempts (31 vs Missouri State) where he ironically threw 0 TDs. 3. He had 2x games with more rushing yards than passing yards (76-62 vs SDST and 166-72 vs James Madison). 4. He only had one game with 4 or more TD passes (Butler - opening day 2019). 5. He had a total of 318 passing attempts his entire college career (Fields had 354 in 2019, Trubisky had 447 in 2016 just for perspective). I knew he was raw and he has an elite running game, but that seems like a huge risk at #2, especially trading up and giving up what they did to do that.

Yeah Foles for Shelley, and Nall for Woods. Last spot is Iggy vs Lucas vs Roberson.

GM's, I want to get a jump on the league compared to last year as we cut it really close in terms of replacement GMs and payments. So I need to get confirmation by 12 AUG that you intend to play this year. I will send out reminders weekly to ensure those that may not visit the site are getting the notifications as well. Once 12 AUG hits, we will start looking for replacement GMs to fill your slot. Here are the league dates: Confirm GM status for the season: 12 AUG Payment via LeagueSafe: 26 AUG (David has already paid) League Draft Window: 27 AUG - 03 SEP Week 1: 09 SEP So for those that frequent the site regularly, please post whether you will be participating in the league this year or not. The league and ability to pay should be available in a few weeks. I will need Ary to restart the league for this season as the Commish. Once the league is restarted, I will confirm the league settings and rules. If my memory serves me correctly, we are up to 2x Keepers (can't be the same as last year/had to be drafted by you and on your roster at season's end), and the fee is $30, with the Champ taking $180, 2nd taking $90, and 3rd taking $30. Draft order is last to first as a snake draft and the standard weekly waivers are in use. If there are other rule changes or requests, we can discuss them here. I will pin this to the top of the board for now. KEEPER TRACKER (as of 7/23) 5th: Dak Prescott, QB; David Montgomery, RB 9th: Antonio Gibson, RB 10th: Josh Allen, QB 14th: TJ Hockenson, TE

Bill, Bears fans have been waiting their entire lives for a QB like this. He may end up as a bust, but for the first time in a long time, the team drafted a QB that the fanbase wanted. I don't think most fans wanted Trubisky, or Grossman, or McNown. Harbaugh was probably the last QB that the fans liked (but Dikta didn't lol). So it has been a long time. Now you have other team's fanbases complaining about passing on Fields. It is such an foreign position to be in as Bears fans, and I love it. I am praying he works out and is our long term answer at QB for the next 20 years, that would be incredible. If he is that good, we will be in the SB hunt every year.

He also had back-to-back seasons with a QBR over 90. Trevor Lawrence never even hit 88. 90 is considered elite production. The only other QB to ever have back to back seasons over 90 was Mayfield. It is interesting to note that both QBs transferred to new schools. The main difference is Fields is coming out as a Junior, and still scored that high on the tests you are talking about. Which makes it even crazier that he scored that high.

How much are Daniels, Nichols, and Mustipher going to command? With Fields on his rookie deal, you could easily re-sign all of them. Also, once they drop Quinn, Graham, and Foles off the books, there will be even more available space. There is also a huge chunk of dead money that will come off the books after this year (Fuller $9M, Massie $3.9M, Skrine $3.3M, and Burton) too. If they want to do some extensions, they will have the money in the next few years to do so. For WRs, 5'11", 176 vs 6'2", 220. ARob is 40+ lbs heavier. I don't know if Mooney is built as a #1. Mooney also has 3 more years on his rookie deal so you could extend ARob and then make a decision near the end of his new deal when Mooney is due an extension.

With the projected cap in 2022, it would be wise to extend ARob and Roquan now. Locked them both up long term, ARob is still only 27 and it is better to extend Roquan before he is an All-Pro selection. Thoughts?

After the major offseason moves, the main roster snap counts come down to the following: 2020 - Trubisky, Fuller, Leno, Massie, RRH, and Patterson 2021- Fields, Trufant, Jenkins, Daniels, Goldman, and Cohen/Williams Fields replaces Trubisky, huge upgrade regardless if Fields starts immediately or not. Jenkins and Daniels on the O-Line vs Leno and Massie is an upgrade in my eyes. Goldman back for RRH is an upgrade, and the backfield touches of Patterson to Cohen/Williams as an RB is an upgrade. The two clear downgrades we have are Fuller at CB for Trufant/Roberson/Graham/Burns and Patterson as KR to Herbert, Newsome. However, of the 22 O/D starters, only have one position as a downgrade is a decent offseason, especially with the cap crunch this year. The other hidden upgrades for me are Attaochu vs Mingo and Goodwin/Byrd vs dropped bubble screens. If we played last year with the 2021 roster, I think we win 10 games. Thoughts?

Yep that is true, and just because he was asked to play LT doesn't mean he was being anointed the starter there. I believe they have more RTs than LTs, so bringing in some depth to play LT makes sense.

Just keep it in bounds!

Leno really changed once he got the big payday. After that, it was a steady decline. Trubisky was so jumpy in the pocket (and he normally scrambled to the right) that Leno was often not blamed for any hurries or pressures, but the tape doesn't lie. He was great for a late-round pick, but they never should've extended him a year early and for that length and amount.

I almost feel like TE has become one of the hardest positions to excel at as a rookie. Kelce didn't play his rookie year and only started 11 games in year 2. Kittle? Started only 7 games as a rookie with 515 yards. Both Kittle and Kmet had 2 TDs their rookie years. There have been some pretty good success with rookie QBs of late, especially those that excelled in college. Burrow, Herbert, and Tua in 2020, Murray in 2019, Mayfield and Allen in 2018 all did pretty well their rookie years and I would say Fields is coming in more refined than most of them. As for Jenkins, I think if we are treating him like a 2nd rounder, we are doing a disservice to him. There were several mocks with Jenkins to the Bears at 20, and most had him gone before 32. So even though he is a second-round pick, the expectation should be that of a first-round OT, who normally start as rookies. Also, Jenkins reminds me of Quenton Nelson, who looks like they want to crush the defender on every play. Leno was like Eeyore, just happy to be there collecting a paycheck, and he never finished a block to save his life. I would be more concerned with Jenkins if this was 2020 all over again, but with a full offseason and time to bound with the QBs, I think Jenkins will be fine. All we are asking of him in Year 1 is Leno level production, which in reality wasn't that high of a bar to set.

I forgot about Wilkinson. He is definitely experienced depth and an obvious upgrade over Coward. The Bears also signed Tyrone Wheatley Jr. as a UDFA, who obviously has football DNA in his blood. That would be a cool story.

A few things to consider. The difference between the O-Line last year and this year is essentially Leno/Massie for Jenkins/Daniels. That is hard to see that as a downgrade. Also, Jenkins had a first-round grade on him and was projected as one of the top tackles in the draft. The "bust rate" is more related to the 7th, 8th, or 9th OT off the board not working out. Jenkins is not one of those guys. Even if Jenkins is a downgrade at LT, he is not blocking for a statue like Foles or a lost QB like Trubisky was. The QBs did not elevate their teammates. Trubisky would run into sacks, Foles wouldn't even move. So the overall offensive unit as a whole should be better. With Daniels back, the interior is strong and Ifedi had the best stretch of his career at RT to end the year. If he just stood there, he would be as good as Massie was. The % of cap of any given unit is going to be contingent on how many guys are on rookie deals and how many All-Pros you have locked up to a huge deal. The Bears are paying Daniels, Mustipher, and Jenkins on rookie deals, and Ifedi to a very reasonable deal. This should be seen as a positive and not a negative IMO.

I totally forgot Goodwin and Byrd, who both are WR2 or WR3s on some teams. Byrd was a WR2 with a terrible QB last year in NE. Goodwin led SF in 2017 in receptions and yards (had 447 yds more than their next best receiver - Kittle).