adam

Thanks, also note the hits that are no longer on the team should be viewed as a negative too, which would make it worse.

So I was curious about how many true hits and misses Pace has had over the last 6 years. Everyone talks about Trubisky, Shaheen (whiffs) or Jackson, Amos (hits), but what about all the others. Bullard and Grasu in the 3rd? Jordan Morgan? Langford and Ridley in the 4th? So I gave a value for each round (1st = 7 to 7th = 1), then either gave Pace credit for the hit (positive value), or negative for a miss. A player needs to play at least 50% of the snaps to be a hit. Using that basic criteria, Pace is a -2 overall, meaning an autodraft or monkey could've done better. That does not include trades, which would change the value of a lot of picks (makes Trubisky worse, etc). Here are the numbers, what do you think? Year Rnd Player Pick Pos Hit/Miss Value 2020 2 Cole Kmet 43 TE H 6 2020 2 Jaylon Johnson 50 CB H 6 2020 5 Trevis Gipson 155 DE M -3 2020 5 Kindle Vildor 163 CB M -3 2020 5 Darnell Mooney 173 WR H 3 2020 7 Arlington Hambright 226 T M -1 2020 7 Lachavious Simmons 227 G M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2019 3 David Montgomery 73 RB H 5 2019 4 Riley Ridley 126 WR M -4 2019 6 Duke Shelley 205 CB H 2 2019 7 Kerrith Whyte Jr 222 RB M -1 2019 7 Stephen Denmark 238 CB M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2018 1 Roquan Smith 8 ILB H 7 2018 2 James Daniels 39 C H 6 2018 2 Anthony Miller 51 WR M -6 2018 4 Joel Iyiegbuniwe 115 LB M -4 2018 5 Bilal Nichols 145 DT H 3 2018 6 Kylie Fitts 181 DE M -2 2018 7 Javon Wims 224 WR M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2017 1 Mitchell Trubisky 2 QB M -7 2017 2 Adam Shaheen 45 TE M -6 2017 4 Eddie Jackson 112 S H 4 2017 4 Tarik Cohen 119 RB H 4 2017 5 Jordan Morgan 147 G M -3 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2016 1 Leonard Floyd 9 OLB H 7 2016 2 Cody Whitehair 56 G H 6 2016 3 Jonathan Bullard 72 DT M -5 2016 4 Nick Kwiatkoski 113 ILB H 4 2016 4 Deon Bush 124 S M -4 2016 4 Deiondre' Hall 127 CB M -4 2016 5 Jordan Howard 150 RB H 3 2016 6 DeAndre Houston-Carson 185 S M -2 2016 7 Daniel Braverman 230 WR M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2015 1 Kevin White 7 WR M -7 2015 2 Eddie Goldman 39 DT H 6 2015 3 Hroniss Grasu 71 C M -5 2015 4 Jeremy Langford 106 RB M -4 2015 5 Adrian Amos 142 S H 3 2015 6 Tayo Fabuluje 183 T M -2 Total -2

Oh no, I was just messing with you. So you are saying 11-6 (which would be really awesome considering the schedule), then one and done in the playoffs. That would be a success, because once you are in the playoffs, it's a crapshoot from there. I think this team, overall, is better than 2020. Goldman is huge (no pun intended), he was a Pro Bowl DT. I like our Edge plays with the addition of Attaochu. Damien Williams as RB2 is a nice upgrade and may be the best RB2 we have ever had. With a 17 game grind, I can see him getting a good amount of touches. You also have to consider Cohen is back. That is 3 upgrades on offense from 2020 if you add Dalton in there. So the big holes are Fuller and Gipson, if the Bears can fill those, or if Trufant is serviceable and they get another Safety, the defense will be as good as it was in 2020. You also have to consider Vildor and Shelley, who both got extended playing time at the end of the season. If Shelley can be better than Skrine (who was terrible), I think we will be ok there.

If they go 11-7 in a 17-game season, that would be wild! For Nagy, if your job is on the line, wouldn't you do whatever it took to be successful or go back to something that didn't work as long as you were in charge? My problem with Nagy is he has had enough QBs (Trubisky, Foles, Daniel) start a game to know that he was part of the problem. So if Dalton is an upgrade, why not use the best play-caller too? The scary part about your scenario is most of that needs to happen for the Bears to have ANY chance at making the playoffs. The defense needs more pressure than they had last year, especially from Edge; Kmet needs to improve, and Dalton has to be at least slightly better than Folebisky, Trufant can't be a huge dropoff from Fuller, and we can't afford injuries up the middle (Hicks, Smith, Jackson).

So they are going out in a blaze of glory, either this will work or both will be out of jobs after this season. The worst case is they end up at 8-9 or 9-8, right there at the edge of the playoffs. Nagy is clearly saying that Mitch was the problem. Pace is just an idiot at this point. Without his ridiculous contracts, we could have Fuller and not have Quinn and Graham for the same price.

ARob is the only receiver with 150 targets the last two years as well.

53/46, so it is plus 2 for both the active and game-day rosters. So 64 new players up from practice squads on active rosters and 64 more from active rosters to game day rosters each week. With injuries and an extra week on the schedule, the bottom of the roster is going to be even more important than ever.

Bears at Raiders the new game. Rosters can now be 55 with 48 active on gamedays, plus 2 for both. So there will be a lot more movement at the bottom of rosters.

I would love to move back 6-8 slots, pick up another 3rd rounder, (CLE 26 and 91 for CHI 20), and still pick one of those guys. That would give us 26, 52, 83, and 91.

BPA is also very subjective, every team has its own BPA, and every team values most players differently, so it is literally a crapshoot. However, if you just say we are taking back-to-back OTs regardless of who is there when we pick you will more than likely get burnt and significantly overdraft at least once. Same for any position. Draft capital is very similar to salary cap as there is a finite amount every year. Can you afford to overpay for Massie which forces you to cut Fuller? That is literally how the draft plays out. If you go early on a player and they are a bust, it is like a bad contract that will be felt for a few years. If you whiff on a 5th rounder, no biggie, that's like a one-year deal that won't kill you.

This has been my point all along. It is nice to go back and rewrite history, but with the unknowns of COVID at the time of free agency and the draft, the Foles move was probably the safest bet.

I would love to draft OT's back to back and anchor the O-Line for the next decade, but the reality it you have to take what the draft gives you and it would be very unlikely that the best player available when the Bears draft is an OT. So do you just take one anyway, try to trade down, or draft BPA in another need area?

Yeah, I was trying to go with BPA+Need, and was going the BPA available at each pick from OT, QB, WR, S, and CB.

I will add updated Mock Draft results in this post. For now, take a look at my latest from https://thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine Would you mind this as our top 3 picks: 20. DeVonta Smith, WR 52. Dillon Radunz, OT 83. Jamar Johnson, S

Bill, so before last season, what did you think of the team? I felt pretty good, even without Goldman playing. So this year, with even marginally better QB play, and basically the same team with some slight upgrades across the board, we may actually be a better team overall. On offense, the O-Line play during the loss streak was brutal, that has been addressed. Cohen was lost so the team was going to CPat way too much. Cohen is back, they added Williams, who is probably the best RB2 the team has ever had, and they Nagy is unable to hand off to CPat on 3rd and 1 for a loss of 3 anymore. On defense, they lost Fuller, which is huge, but gained a few pieces and have Goldman back. So with 3 picks in the top 100 for the first time in a while, they should be able to bring in 3 starters from the draft.

So why would the Bengals hold onto him that long? So you are going to risk passing on Foles, then not drafting a QB, to hope that the Bengals will release Dalton and hope he will sign with you? Come on. For one, that is way too many unknowns to deal with. Second, if the Bears did that, Dalton would've had all the leverage. So again, there is no way they were waiting on the chance to sign Dalton over trading for Foles when they did.

Yep, he is in the losses until he re-signs. These are the current losses, if they have a strikethrough, that means the Bears have signed someone at their position. LOSSES (with snap counts): Offense (Team High= 1066): Trubisky, QB (570) Massie, OT (470) + ST (26) Coward, OL (333) + ST (73) Harris, TE (215) + ST (169) Patterson, KR (201) + ST (146) Defense (Team High= 1060): Fuller, CB (1060) Gipson, S (1054) Skrine, CB (557) Mingo, LB (390) Urban, DE (370) Robertson-Harris, DE (245) Jenkins, DT (223) McManis, S (25)

The 49ers are going to have a lot of issues shortly. They have $173M in cap hits for 2022 for only 24 players. So to fill out the top 51, they would need to sign 27 more players with $29M in projected cap space. JimmyG's cap hit for next year is $27M, which is ridiculous for his production. I just don't understand the praise for Lynch and Shanahan. They have a losing record together and are in cap hell and now have traded away multiple first-round picks while their stars come out of their rookie deals.

Come on guys. It was during a pandemic and the Bears got Foles on the roster on March 18th, a month before the draft. Dalton was not available at that time. Dalton was released from Bengals on April 30th (after they drafted Burrow) and signed with the Cowboys on May 2nd.

By Unit offseason changes: QB - upgrade (Dalton is better than Trubisky and Foles) RB - upgrade (Williams and Cohen back) WR - no change TE - no change OL - no change DL - upgrade (Goldman back, plus add Blackson) LB - upgrade (Attaochu and Jones) > Mingo/Woods/Iggy CB - downgrade (Loss of Fuller, gain Trufant, and Burns is re-signed) S - downgrade (Loss of Gipson without replacement) ST - downgrade (Loss of Patterson) So it looks like outside of two positions on defense (CB and S) and KR, we are already better than last year. The defensive front-7 is going to be crazy good and may make up for the loss of Fuller.

Yep, included under Losses.

Yep, that's why they are listed under Losses.

Stinger, you are correct, they basically use the last pick in that round because that is the worst value in return they can get. The gaining team gets the extra value if the trading team plays bad.

Oh yeah, I know. Pace got a lot of flak for moving up one slot with 2x 3rds and a 4th, yet Lynch is hailed as a hero moving up 9 slots for 2x 1sts and a 3rd knowing he is getting the 3rd best QB.

For SF, I think it would be different if trading 3x firsts and a 3rd would get you one of the top 2 QBs in the draft, but when all it does is get you #3, that seems like a big whiff. #3 = 2200 #12 = 1200, 3rd (assume 93) = 128, 1st (assume 29) = 640, 1st (assume 29) = 640 So if SF gets to NFC Championship game in the next two years, they would still lose out on the trade by a mid-2nd rounder. The only way it works out for them is if they win or get to the SB in the next two years, unlikely with rookie QB in NFC West. To me it seems like a desperate move for a team, coach, and GM that have done nothing since they took over.