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Everything posted by adam
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Updated as of 21MAR: GAINS: Dalton, QB (replaces Trubisky) Trufant, CB (replaces Fuller) Blackson, DL (replaces Urban) Attaochu, OLB (replaces Mingo) LOSSES (with snap counts): Offense (Team High= 1066): Trubisky, QB (570) Massie, OT (470) + ST (26) Coward, OL (333) + ST (73) Harris, TE (215) + ST (169) Patterson, KR (201) + ST (146) Spriggs, OL (70) + ST (34) Carter, WR (15) + ST (36) Defense (Team High= 1060): Fuller, CB (1060) + ST (87) - Most snaps on defense, ouch! Gipson, S (1054) - 3rd most on defense, ouch! Skrine, CB (557) + ST (81) Mingo, LB (390) + ST (374) Urban, DE (370) + ST (158) Robertson-Harris, DE (245) + ST (80) Jenkins, DT (223) + ST (48) Houston-Carson, S (91) + ST (372) McCullers, DT (86) + ST (13) McManis, S (25) + ST (205) Still need help at S (-3), DL (-3), OL (-3), CB (-1), KR (-1). 11 spots, so if they can get 3-4 more vet minimum signings, they could fill the rest in the draft and UDFA. So as of right now, the major difference between last year and this year looks like: 2020 - Trubisky, Fuller, Patterson, Gipson, Skrine, Mingo, Urban vs. 2021 - Dalton, Trufant, new KR, new Safety, new Slot CB, Blackson, Attaochu + Cohen and Goldman. Obviously without knowing who the Safety and Slot CB are is important, but if they can get Gipson back or someone comparable to him, the team is very similiar constructed. QB play is going to be key.
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Bears sign Attaochu, I'm assuming he replaces Mingo as Edge3.
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He was QB3 last year behind Brees and Hill. He had 75 passing yards on 11 passing attempts.
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I don't mind PFF for WR, RB, LB, DL and Edge. Outside of those, their analysis is too subjective for me. They don't know the play, the read, etc, so QB ratings are off, same for OL with blocking assignments. I don't like their secondary ratings as they don't know the coverage assignments.
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Go into individual player pages and AV should be the last column.
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PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2020.htm
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I agree but it is still a little shocking.
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The rookie pool is going to be about $7M this year with 8 picks. The Bears have about $2.7M after all of the other moves. So they need to free up at least $5M to bring in the entire rookie pool. Cutting Graham saves $7M, so that seems like a no-brainer. Hicks is still a wild card with a $12M cap hit and $10.5M savings. Outside of Leno or an ARob extension that relieves some cap hit from this year, there is not much else they can do.
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Yeah, not too bad. Urban signed too quick, as I bet they wanted him back but at the time had the ARob and Fuller stuff going on. Like you said, if Gipson and Mingo come back on comparable deals, that would be 9 out of 10 of the high-value guys back on the roster. Enjoy your reading. I like AV better than PFF Grades, though I wish they were broken down lower than whole numbers, like 2 decimals would've been perfect. I really wish this guy had a player rating system: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/ I have been using his team rating systems for a long time.
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I am sure that has something to do with it, but Trubisky signed for the same price as Tim Boyle, half of what Brissett signed form and $10M less than Taysom Hill. Trubisky has more starts than all of them combined. Just feels odd to me. Also, there are still some teams with bad QBs and a lot of cap space, you would think one would've taken a flyer on Trubisky for more than $2.5M (Jags, Broncos, or Jets).
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Roster construction is all about bang for your buck. How can you squeeze the most out of the least while staying under the cap. At the end of the day, production has to match the pay in order to field a winning team. Based on 2020 cap hit and AV, here were the top 10 most productive players per dollar last year: David Montgomery Tashaun Gipson Bilal Nichols Darnell Mooney Jaylon Johnson Cairo Santos Brent Urban Barkevious Mingo Anthony Miller Roquan Smith The worst values were Skrine and Demetrius Harris, but interestingly enough the next 3 players that had cap hit over $1M and an AV below 10 were: Foles Fuller Graham The biggest shock was not to see Quinn at the bottom, but he only had a $6.1M cap hit last year, so he didn't need elite production to have marginal value. In case of Foles, Fuller, and Graham, Fuller was the only one with a cap hit over $10M of those 3. Closely following those 3 were Hicks and Leno, both were discussed as cap casualties based on their performance, so the eye test seems to work too. Now if you believe Fuller would repeat 2020 in 2021, there is no way you could pay him $20M. However, now they have to bring someone in for $4-5M and hope they can exceed Fuller's production in 2020. A tall order. The only chance is a bounce-back year from Trufant or a rookie CB.
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Apparently only $2.5M with $1.5 guaranteed. UDFA QBs and PS QBs sign for that amount. If I am Trubisky, I am firing my agent.
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Athletes are weird, they should just consider themselves subcontractors. They can be replaced all the time for the same reasons, price, performance, and availability.
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I am sure that will eventually come out, but I assume he didn't like the way it was handled, because he could've taken the same money to stay with the Bears, and took less to leave. So either the Bears handled it horribly wrong (likely) or he is a petulant child and did it out of spite (unlikely). Desai has been around for awhile, so I don't think it is him, and I don't know how much the DC gets involved in contract negotiations.
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Looks like Hicks is safe, if all we lose is Fuller for $20M, I'm ok with it. Still sucks we got zero comp for him, now if he leaves DEN next year, they get the comp pick.
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Wow Fuller man, accepts a deal for $9.5M but wouldn't restructure to stay with Bears. So he took less to leave.
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It's official:
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Just looking at some draft value charts 1st - 20th 2nd - 52nd 3rd - 83rd 5th - 164th 6th - 204th, 208th, 221st, 228th If the Bears wanted to move up with one or two of their 6th's, it would be with 204 and 208, which actually have some decent value (8.2 and 6.6). Either one of those would bump the Bears up from 164 to 146 in the 5th, or if they packaged 164+204+208, they could jump to 134 in the 4th. Would you rather have what they have now, or: 1st - 20th 2nd - 52nd 3rd - 83rd 4th - 134th 6th - 221st, 228th Gain a 4th, lose a 5th, and 2x 6ths. The other option is only using one of the 6th's and move up to around 146 in the 5th, so: 1st - 20th 2nd - 52nd 3rd - 83rd 5th - 146th 6th - 308th, 221st, 228th This one actually feels the best, only lose one pick, but move up above the 150 line. The only solid pick I can think of is Mooney after pick 150, who was drafted at 173. So regardless of how many #200's you have, it almost seems better to move up with the 5th. I would still consider movement early and trading down to pick up an extra 3rd or 4th.
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Tim Boyle signed for as much as Trubisky. Either Trubisky has a terrible agent or the league views him at the same level as Tim Boyle. Tim Boyle is not a fringe starter. A QB taking $2.5M is an easy cut. I just find it very odd that Trubisky couldn't get a better deal to be a true backup. Anything less than $5M is not a backup contract. The Bills already have Jake Fromm and Davis Webb, so Trubisky is literally competing to run the Scout team.
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Yeah, you can't fault the guy for taking millions if someone is willing to give them to you. He seems like a good kid, but the deer in the headlights look told me everything I needed to know about his ability to quickly process things in a split second. They should add some type of test like that instead of the wonderlic as I think it would yield more useful results. Tailor each test to various positions, almost like the personality tests.
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The fact that Trubisky only got $2.5M and only $1.5M guaranteed should tell you how much he is valued in the league. To put that contract into perspective, it is the 63rd highest QB contract in total value currently, which doesn't account for any new contracts or rookie contracts, which will push him into the 70s, which is QB3 and PS range. That is absolutely ridiculous. Here are some names who got bigger contracts than Trubisky: BiNucci, Luton, Fromm, Grier, Stick, McSorley, Stidham, Finley, Morgan.
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The Fuller situation is interesting. I would feel much better if they got anything for him compared to an outright release. I wouldn't even care if it was swapping picks and moving up a little with one of the 5th or 6th rounders. If the Bears get something for Fuller and get Golladay, then I will feel a lot better about the entire situation.