adam

Bookends would be sweet, but it hard to believe Pace would be that smart. He going to trade up for a QB, then reach for a WR.

If the Bears miss out on the top 5 (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones), here are the next 5 in the QB top 10. Who would you take, and when? 1. (3-4th Round) Kyle Trask - 88.5 QBR, 27 games, 7386 yds, 67.9%, 9.1 Y/A, 69 TD, 15 INT, 168.5 Rating, 54 Rushing Yds, 8 TD (impressive passing numbers in just 27 games, but his immobility scares me). 2. (3-4th Round) Davis Mills - 77.4 QBR, 14 games, 3468 yds, 65.5%, 7.9 Y/A, 18 TD, 8 INT, 141.9 Rating, 86 Rushing Yds, 3 TD (I don't know why people have him rated so high, for a college QB, limited experience, a mediocre TD/INT Ratio, no rushing ability, what is the deal here?) 3. (3-4th Round) Kellen Mond - 74.9 QBR, 46 games, 9661 yds, 59.0%, 7.1 Y/A, 71 TD, 27 INT, 132.0 Rating, 1609 Rushing Yds, 22 TD (seems very average, very low Comp% is alarming). 4. (4-6th Round) Ian Book - 84.0 QBR, 45 games, 8948 yds, 63.8%, 7.8 Y/A, 72 TD, 20 INT, 147.0 Rating, 1517 Rushing Yds, 17 TD (feels like Mond with a few less INTs). 5. (5-7th Round) Sam Ehlinger - 76.6 QBR, 46 games, 11436 yds, 62.5%, 7.7 Y/A, 94 TD, 27 INT, 145.0 Rating, 1903 Rushing Yds, 33 TD (crazy production, 127 TDs in 46 games). Why is he rated so low? Out of all of these, Ehlinger is the best value as a 5th Round pick. If they didn't draft one and he is still there at pick #165, you almost have to pull the trigger. Thoughts? One other thing I noticed while looking up the stats was Mac Jones had the best QBR season for a college QB since the stat was created in 2004. Here are the last 10 QBs with a QBR over 90: 1. Mac Jones 96.1 (2020) - Wow, that is impressive. 2. Justin Fields 91.7 (2020) - Fields on here twice. 3. Joe Burrow 94.9 (2019) 4. Tua Tagovalioa 94.8 (2019) - Twice for Tua 5. Justin Fields 92.1 (2019) 6. Kyler Murray 95.4 (2018) 7. Tua Tagovalioa 93.1 (2018) 8. Baker Mayfield 92.3 (2017) - Twice for Baker 9. Baker Mayfield 91.8 (2016) 10. Marcus Mariota 91.3 (2014) So it seems like Fields and Jones would be safe picks in the first (even trading up a few spots to grab one). It is hard to have that level of elite production and be a bust. Every other QB on the list is a starter and Mariota probably should be.

I would only move up for Wilson, Fields, or Lance, but to nothing higher than pick #10. Dalton is serviceable, and I believe he can make this a winning team, but only 9-8 or maybe 10-7, but that's the ceiling, and that is ok for this year, but if we can get a young QB drafted this year and sit under Dalton for a year, that would be awesome. OT is a need, but Ifedi played decent there last year (better than Massie) and Leno ended up having a pretty good year at the end. So it's hard to say what is a greater need without knowing how Dalton will play. Looking at the other positions, we literally do not have an SS right now, and Trufant is filling in Fuller's spot. So it is hard not to address those positions unless the tam believes in Vildor or Burns at CB. WR is on there but technically it would only be a need if they traded Miller, otherwise, they would have the same top 3 as last year in ARob, Mooney, and Miller. I still think they bring in a vet for WR3/4. CPat is also still available for KR. DL is stacked but aging. Edge is solid, but aging, and they are going to have to replace Trevathan very soon, so DL, Edge, and ILB are going to be needs really soon.

It looks like one of these QBs may slip to #10.

Now that would be an insane draft. Bookends, a starting WR and CB, and a decent QB prospect plus every other pick has a chance to contribute.

I agree, I am ok with taking a QB at 20, or trading back into the end of the first and pick one, but not trading up, especially that high.

Miller vs Wims, first bout.

Jason, I am thinking you will need to do two of these, lol. One with QB first and one with another position group first as that one pick will dictate the rest of the draft strategy.

1 - QB - Has to be #1 until we have one. 2 - OT - With Massie gone, and Leno no better than average, we need to improve here. 3 - CB - With Fuller gone, and these are much harder to find in the 2nd wave of free agency. 4 - S - Still a few Safeties out there and we hit in the 4th and 5th on Jackson and Amos. 5 - WR - I feel like we are still one WR away from having an elite group, need to prepare for eventual loss of ARob.

I am hoping for a 5th. A 6th is almost a throw-away at this point.

Multiple teams? Wow, I wouldn't expect much back for Miller.

Yeah, you are correct, they basically told Wilson to transfer his senior year. After watching all the moves over the past few weeks, the pro day visits, etc. I just realized that Pace and Nagy's easiest path to job security is to draft another QB (in the first round) and ride that guy 2-3 years. With that thought, I would be shocked if the Bears did anything else.

Yeah drafting for need rarely works out.

Russell Wilson backed up Mike Glennon before transferring to Wisconsin too, which is hilarious if you think about it.

Oh lol, I was reading the entire sentence as "know they will draft a QB AND that guy is going to be awesome"

So, if this works out the way Yates says here, if you are the Bears, do you jump to #4 (ATL) or #5 (CIN) and take Fields? Some think DET may also take one at #7. So unless you are in the top 6, you will probably not get one of the first 4 QBs selected. I wouldn't do that and would rather take a chance on Trey Lance without having to mortgage the farm (again).

It's funny because I liked Pace's strategy, but his execution has been terrible. Bring in a reliable vet and draft a QB. If the young QB wins the job or is ready to start (Wilson vs Flynn), you make the transition. However, you never tank at any point because the vet is able to at least keep you somewhat competitive. You can also trade the vet if needed, and never have a massive cap hit until any QB becomes a star.

Darnold is only in year 4, it reminds me of drafting Rosen, then drafting Murray. That is a lot of lost draft capital that will eventually catch up to a team. You can't keep doing this and survive, basically trading the #3 pick for a 2nd, 4th, and a 6th every few years will leave you with a few good players but very few impact players.

There is no way to KNOW anything with 100% certainty. There are more misses in the top of the draft for QBs than hits. Darnold being one of them lol. In that draft alone, half of the QBs are busts at this point (Rosen and Darnold) with Allen being the hit and Mayfield trending that way. Look at Mariota and Winston, both top picks, both considered busts. Goff, Wentz? Drafting a QB in the top 10 is actually a bad idea unless it is the first pick, and even then it doesn't work out all the time, Goff, Bradford, Russell. Look at picks 2-10 and look at some of the horrible QBs drafted. I am ok with what the Jets did, they got picks for a bust QB, take it and run, but you are sort of treading water if this is what you do every 3 years.

Lol, autocorrect, because I type his name so much lately. Now that's funny. I find it odd that they would let him go and almost forcing a rookie QB to start with an entirely new staff. To me that is very risky.

If he works out, it is totally worth it. However, Bridgewater was just signed as "The Guy" last year and has a $23M cap hit this year with $20M in dead money. If Dalton was that good, the Jets would not be moving on from him. So from the Panthers' perspective, how could they think he is better than Bridgewater? Just seems like the evaluations are off. Carolina thinks he is much better than he has performed, and the Jets view him as he has performed. So we will see.

Carolina just traded a 2nd, 4th, and 6th for Darnold when they had Bridgewater, wow. They got fleeced by the Jets.

I understand that not all players will contribute the same amount, but that is why the lower round guys have lesser value, but in order to properly evaluate on an even playing field, you have to have one constant, so I went with hits with 50% of the snaps. I even added Shelley to the hits because he got that much PT after Skrine was out. Gipson had 1 solo tackle, so right now he is a miss. If he improves that can change. Same for Vildor, he allowed 12 completions on 17 attempts and 2 TDs, that is currently a miss. Misses are also bad players, I forgot to mention that. So Trubisky played a ton, but was a whiff.

Thanks, also note the hits that are no longer on the team should be viewed as a negative too, which would make it worse.

So I was curious about how many true hits and misses Pace has had over the last 6 years. Everyone talks about Trubisky, Shaheen (whiffs) or Jackson, Amos (hits), but what about all the others. Bullard and Grasu in the 3rd? Jordan Morgan? Langford and Ridley in the 4th? So I gave a value for each round (1st = 7 to 7th = 1), then either gave Pace credit for the hit (positive value), or negative for a miss. A player needs to play at least 50% of the snaps to be a hit. Using that basic criteria, Pace is a -2 overall, meaning an autodraft or monkey could've done better. That does not include trades, which would change the value of a lot of picks (makes Trubisky worse, etc). Here are the numbers, what do you think? Year Rnd Player Pick Pos Hit/Miss Value 2020 2 Cole Kmet 43 TE H 6 2020 2 Jaylon Johnson 50 CB H 6 2020 5 Trevis Gipson 155 DE M -3 2020 5 Kindle Vildor 163 CB M -3 2020 5 Darnell Mooney 173 WR H 3 2020 7 Arlington Hambright 226 T M -1 2020 7 Lachavious Simmons 227 G M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2019 3 David Montgomery 73 RB H 5 2019 4 Riley Ridley 126 WR M -4 2019 6 Duke Shelley 205 CB H 2 2019 7 Kerrith Whyte Jr 222 RB M -1 2019 7 Stephen Denmark 238 CB M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2018 1 Roquan Smith 8 ILB H 7 2018 2 James Daniels 39 C H 6 2018 2 Anthony Miller 51 WR M -6 2018 4 Joel Iyiegbuniwe 115 LB M -4 2018 5 Bilal Nichols 145 DT H 3 2018 6 Kylie Fitts 181 DE M -2 2018 7 Javon Wims 224 WR M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2017 1 Mitchell Trubisky 2 QB M -7 2017 2 Adam Shaheen 45 TE M -6 2017 4 Eddie Jackson 112 S H 4 2017 4 Tarik Cohen 119 RB H 4 2017 5 Jordan Morgan 147 G M -3 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2016 1 Leonard Floyd 9 OLB H 7 2016 2 Cody Whitehair 56 G H 6 2016 3 Jonathan Bullard 72 DT M -5 2016 4 Nick Kwiatkoski 113 ILB H 4 2016 4 Deon Bush 124 S M -4 2016 4 Deiondre' Hall 127 CB M -4 2016 5 Jordan Howard 150 RB H 3 2016 6 DeAndre Houston-Carson 185 S M -2 2016 7 Daniel Braverman 230 WR M -1 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos 2015 1 Kevin White 7 WR M -7 2015 2 Eddie Goldman 39 DT H 6 2015 3 Hroniss Grasu 71 C M -5 2015 4 Jeremy Langford 106 RB M -4 2015 5 Adrian Amos 142 S H 3 2015 6 Tayo Fabuluje 183 T M -2 Total -2