adam

What do you think? I like the passion, and if Nagy fails to improve the offense, Mike can slide into the HC position easily.

Most of the cap heads are predicting the wildest free agency period ever. It should be fun and interesting. It is almost open season.

It would not be until 2022 because they take into account performance incentives that may kick in during the season. That is how we lost a 6th rounder because of incentives made another player's compensation more than Daniel's in Detroit.

Also, you would have to expect the Bears would be an attractive destination for a free agent if we had Watson.

That's fair, here are the last 3 years of pick 15 and pick 16: #15 Jerry Jeudy, Dwayne Haskins, Kolton Miller #16 AJ Terrell, Brian Burns, Tremaine Edmunds You can't get more average than the two middle picks of the first round over the last 3 years. Again, would you trade those packages for Watson? The answer is hell yeah every time. If you are picking outside of the top 12, the odds of you hitting on a star is low enough to justify the trade for someone of Watson's caliber. As long as we didn't trade the house and only needed to address OL and WR in the draft (after trading for him), we would be an immediate contender.

You trade the contract, so the money goes to the new team. If you cut them, you pay the dead money (all the remaining guaranteed money on the contract).

So you wouldn't trade Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long for Watson? How about Kevin White, Leonard Floyd, and Mitch Trubisky? Also, if you are a good team that makes the playoffs, you would be consistently drafting in the 20s. The #1 pick is worth 3000, the #24 pick is worth 720, so it would take 4x #24's to get the #1 pick. So if you view Watson as a #1 pick value, giving up 3 firsts would be worth it. The 16th pick is worth 1000, so you would have to expect to be drafting in the top 15 to lose out on that trade.

Toney would replace Patterson and be much better as a WR too. I love that pick. I'm ok with Trask that late because if it doesn't work, its not like a trade up to #2 and passing on 2 HoFers. It is hard to see Trask being worse than Trubisky just based on comparing their college tape. Getting OT early is huge. Overall, I like the draft, especially because there are no reaches and only one small school pick.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/01/19/salary-cap-could-be-in-the-range-of-180-million/ So it looks like the cap might be around $180M for 2021. That would be $4-5M more than the bottom, which would surely help out the Bears situation. It is crazy to think there will be teams over $30M in the hole. The Saints are $95M over the cap. Even if the cap didn't drop for 2021, they would still be $70M over the cap. Talk about some mismanagement. They may have to become serious trade partners instead of cutting and relying on dead money. Brees would cost $22M in dead money if he retires. The Eagles are $51M over, Falcons are $32M over, and the Packers and Rams are both $22M over. So these teams are going to have to make some tough decisions before the new league year (March 17th). https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

So the lead teams look to be MIA and NYJ. SF, CHI, CAR, IND, DEN, WAS and NE were other teams mentioned as realistic candidates. My take is there is no way Houston is trading within their division, so IND is out. If they trade him within the conference, there is a chance they would have to face him every year (depending on schedules). I can't see them doing this and risking that every year for the next 15 years. Also, for a team like MIA, if they did trade with them, all they would be doing is getting their 1st rounder back that they traded for Tunsil, so it would be Watson for Tunsil and a first (in this year's draft), which would look even worse. So that leaves the NFC teams of SF, CHI, CAR, and WAS. So let's look at this year's draft capital, cap space, and highest-paid QBs: Best draft capital this year: CAR - #8, #39, $13M Cap, Bridgewater $21M AAV Easiest out for QB contract: SF - #12, #43, $22M Cap, Garoppolo $27.5M AAV Cap space availability: WAS - #19, #51, $43M Cap, Smith $23.5M AAV Cheapest starting QB to trade: CHI - #20, #52, $0 Cap, Foles $8M AAV Right now the Texans are $18M over the current cap. That may grow to more than that when the official cap comes out. It gets even worse in 2022 as the Texans have the lowest cap space of any team in 2022 right now. That's when Watson's deal kicks in and his cap hit balloons to $40M. So they have to be thinking about that as part of the equation. Watson's cap hit for 2021 is only $15.9M, so it's hard for me to believe they would go deeper in the hole cap-wise to move him. So they would unlikely trade for Bridgewater, Garoppolo, or Smith. On the flip side, Carolina can't absorb Bridgewater's dead money if they decided to trade for Watson and cut Bridgewater. The 49ers and Redskins could with their QBs. The Texans could take Foles and save $8M in cap space with a serviceable QB. To me, there is not much difference between those 3, Smith was the worst of the 3 and technically Garoppolo got outplayed by Nick Mullens, and with the added cap hit, Foles is actually the best deal and lowest risk. So I think it will come down to SF, WAS, and CHI as the landing spot if the Texans decide to move on from Watson. I still think he stays but you never know anymore.

Actually those have some valuable. Maybe not in and of themselves, but coupled with the other picks, they can move up in another round. They could take one of the comp picks and move up into the early 5th with their original 5th, and then take another comp and trade it with the current 6th to move into the late 5th. So there is some value there. Not a lot but some. Then you can use the last one on a punter, so you are not using original picks on special teamers.

Draft Update: Rookie Pool - Est $5M From what I am tracking, the Bears have 5 original picks and 3 comp picks for a total of 8 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, (Comp picks: 6th, 6th, 6th) no 4th rounder - Trevis Gipson no 7th rounder - Eddie Pinero So no 4th, but 4x 6th rounders. I can see Pace wheeling and dealing with the house's money and those extra 6th rounders.

Of all the UFA's or potential cut candidates, the highest producing ones are ARob (WR), Hicks (DT), Patterson (WR), Gipson (S), and Santos (K). Now that doesn't count the few rotational guys that excelled (Urban, Edwards) but those are the losses that would hurt the most. Money-wise, it seems like ARob and Hicks are the most likely not to be back. It looks like they could bring Patterson, Gipson and Santos back on some reasonable deals. Guys like Trubisky, Leno, Massie, Graham, Skrine, Coward, Harris all had prominent roles and underachieved. So their losses may actually help the team. QB, WR, OT, and S has to be the early targets in the draft. Grab a punter with one of the 6th round comp picks (or trade into the 7th with a comp and grab one there).

Post-June 1 Cuts ($39.5M in potential savings) Hicks $1.5M Dead Money, $10.5M Cap Savings Leno $2.3M Dead Money, $9M Cap Savings Massie $1.3 Dead Money, $8M Cap Savings Graham $3M Dead Money, $7M Cap Savings Skrine $1.1M Dead Money, $5M Cap Savings This has to happen. If they also restructure Mack and Fuller, they can have about $35M after the rookie pool to fill 15 roster spots. If you assume 8-9 of those will be near league minimum deals for vets or 1-yr deals, that leaves about $25M for 6 spots, assuming you need to fill starting spots at QB, WR, LT, RT, SS, DL.

We would get a comp pick in 2022, and only if we didn't bring in anyone that gives a comp pick to another team. So it will depend on what Pace does in terms of free agent acquisitions, because it would suck to lose Arob AND a comp pick to bring in so lower level FA that gives another team a comp pick, negating ours. The exec one is much better, because I believe those are immune to deletion.

There are 10-15 names that have a very low chance of being available at #20, which makes it a little easier to see who may be there at #10. However, from a need perspective, that takes away Lawrence, Wilson, Fields (for QBs), Sewell and Slater (OT), and Smith, Waddle, Chase (WR). That is 8 right there without thinking much. Literally our top needs will be heavily selected in the top 15 (yay Pace!). As far as QBs go, Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Kyle Trask have a chance to be available outside of the top 10, but depending how the combine goes, they may move up or down. Depending on how you view them, some may even be available in the 2nd round. The team obviously has a need for OT, so someone like Darrisaw (VA Tech) or Cosmi (Texas) should be there. WR will be a huge need if ARob walks. I would rather pick one up in the 2nd or 3rd than the first. Depending on what happens with Fuller or Gipson, the Bears may have a hole to fill at CB or S. There should be several of those available at #20. At the end of the day, it seems like QB, OT, WR, and maybe DB will be who they are targeting at 20. What do you think?

Rodgers has seen a bunch of players excel under his tutelage, so it would make sense that he gets a hard look. Hicks, Goldman, Nichols, RRH, Nick Williams, Urban, etc. In a way, that unit has been a strength for the defense. At this point, as long as he can mix it up, mask coverages and blitzes, stop making Trevathan cover WRs, stop DBs from playing 15 yards off with 7 yards to go, and only bring Quinn in on 3rd and long, the defense is a top 10 unit again.

Oh, I agree, you are just kicking the can down the road. It's like putting off cleaning out your shed/garage until next spring. The crap is just going to be a year older. Might as well cut sling and get rid of your Gazelle and Shake Weights this year, even though you still owe two years on them through Fingerhut. If you cleaned house now, you also have the option of trading out of this year's draft and into 2022's knowing those will be your picks.

Nice, let us know if you get a response. It still comes down to dollars and cents > wins and losses. As long as they remain a top 5 valuation in football and top 20 in all of pro sports, why change anything? It is like someone who sells a crappy product, but sells a ton and makes a huge profit. Like some of those "As seen on tv" ones. From a bottom line perspective, whatever you are doing is working, so why change it? Supposedly the family has really taken to Ryan Pace and there is not much he can do wrong in their eyes. It's like a biased parent who gives their kid the benefit of the doubt, especially when they work for them. It feels like Pace has that with the McCaskey's and Phillips.

The guy that was fired from the Giants?

Yep, and to them the business model is successful, so why change a thing? They are a top 10 team year in and year out.

I think they brought Pace back to live with the train wreck he has put together for the 2021 season. No other GM in their right mind would want to take on this mess and then get blamed for a 4-12 season right after an 8-8 season. The cap situation with the COVID impact has made this basically an impossible task. I bet they brought Pace back but said you cannot push anything into the future. So no trading of future picks or extending/restructuring contracts of players unless approved by higher. Also, no dead money can extend beyond 2021. If they do that, I actually like the decision. Let Pace try to save himself without handcuffing the future. If he pulls it off, he may get an extension. If he fails and the team gets worse (highly likely), then he is the scapegoat and he is fired. Then the new GM comes in with a much better cap situation and no lost draft picks in 2022 and can shape the roster to their liking much easier.

Bill, based on their words and actions, to me, I believe that the organizational leadership thinks both Pace and Nagy are doing good jobs. That's the disconnect with the fans. The team has been in the shitter for most of the last 35 years, so when you have 3 seasons in a row where you don't have a losing record, you are popping champagne bottles and handing out bonus checks. However, the fans don't see it that way. We feel literally the exact opposite way about Pace and Phillips and at least half the fan base feels that way about Nagy. However, inside Halas Hall, these guys can do no wrong. They wouldn't discuss the term of Pace's current contract. Which is typically released to the public. Why the secrecy? Are they not proud of their decisions? George actually said that the Bears culture is the envy of the league and it's not about wins and losses. He is right, it is about the bottom line, and regardless of how bad the Bears do, they always have a top 10 bottom line. So this goes in line with not firing anyone who is still under a current deal, because that would be a sunk cost and hurt the bottom line. So Nagy and Pace are coming back if they are under contract. I expect a bunch of players that we want gone will be back because they don't want dead money on their books. Remember this is entertainment and business, and as long as the stadium is a sell out and jersey sales are strong, there is no reason to change.

That was the worse PR display since the McGinnis fiasco. What a load of crap. It is the same ole song and dance. They are so out of touch with the fanbase (and reality) it is sickening.

I think Jason is predicting what Pace will do now that we know he is back. He forgot the small shifty WR, because we need more undersized RB/WRs.