adam

The tag still counts against the cap, so they would have to get really creative with a deal for him and restructure a ton of other deals.

Assuming Washington loses, the Bears are locked into the 20th pick. If Washington somehow wins, the Bears could slide to #19.

I wanted Claypool instead. To me, he would've been a much better weapon in this offense than Kmet has been.

We went to OT against New Orleans where Foles actually played pretty good. Trubisky did not make a single throw beyond what a High School QB couldn't make. He has zero value added at this point. Trubisky's play is totally correlated to the defense he plays against. That is not a good QB, the last few weeks showed that again.

Yeah, if you could plug in any GM, HC, DC, and QB and have similar, if not better results, what's the point? This franchise has severely underachieved with the opportunities it had. It starts with the front office and ends with scheme and play calling on the field. How many times to do we have to watch a square peg try to get pushed into a round hole?

I don't think I have ever been this unexcited about Bears playoff football. This is a 5-win team that fell out of a dumpster fire to make the playoffs. I would be shocked if the Bears look any different than they did against the Packers. Saints 31-13

I do not want Fields, he feels like he will be a bust after seeing the team take the ball out of his hands to win the game. All the recent great young QB's were selected by a team that traded up (KC, HOU, BUF). So if the Bears are picking in the late teens to mid 20s, and want a QB like Jones or Trask, I assume they will have to give up their 2021 and 2022 firsts to move up 10+ slots to have a shot at one of them. If the trade is this and next year's ones, Im ok with it.

Weather looks to be nice, low 30s, partly cloudy and only a light wind.

This game is the most important regular season game for this team in years. It will ultimately come down to what defense shows up. If it is the one from the last few weeks, we have no chance. I believe the offense will score 20+ but can the defense stop Rodgers and Adams? The game was shifted to the afternoon slot parallel to the Rams-Cards game. A win and the Bears can actually knock GB out of the #1 seed and possibly all the way to the #3 seed. There is also a chance that there is a rematch in GB the following week if the Bears win. The Bears also can jump to the #6 seed with a win and Cards win. People forget there was a 14 pt swing in the last game, the Bears gifted them 7 pts on the Trubisky fumble and lost 7 more on the end zone INT. If Trubisky can hold onto the ball, that's a completely different game. Monty had success and Nagy abandoned the run. Just pound the rock, make them commit to the run and then hit them with PA and boots. Easy reads for Trubisky and put the ball in playmakers hands in space.

If Nagy is back, does Mitch want to play for the HC that "blindsided" him? Also, if he plays well in the next two games, there may be more suitors with bigger caps than just the Bears.

It looks like Wims is supposed to sit down in the soft spot in the zone but doesn't get a clean release. Based on Mitch's foot placement, on the snap he tries to hold the Safety to the left, but Smith immediately turns his hips and starts dropping in coverage, so Trubisky goes to the next read (Wims). If Wims makes a clean move back outside, that ball hits him in the hands, or there is at least a 34% chance that it does.

Yeah, look at Wentz. What the hell happened there? He was an MVP candidate within the last few years and lost his job to a rookie. Goff has been nothing but a system QB, but he can throw the deep ball. I looked at Goff's stats, this guy has had 4x games with a QBR under 40 (3 under 20 which is almost impossible) and 4 over 80. Talk about Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, you have no clue which QB you are going to get. One of his worst games this year was against the Jets. Now all of a sudden Mayfield is a top 10 QB. I find it funny that Mayfield gets all this credit for being a great QB when he is about to have 2x 1000 yard rushers, and for at least half the season had 3x All-Star pass catchers (Beckham, Landry, and Hooper) behind one of the best lines in football. So we will see how Trubisky measures up to Mayfield who had 19-29, 65.5%, 258 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT against JAX a few weeks ago.

I know there has been a lot of buzz during this last few game stretch where Trubisky has looked better. So I tried to see if anything stood out in this most recent 3-game stretch that was something we have not seen, at least from a numbers perspective, in his entire career. I did find one set of numbers that stood out. In 44 games where Trubisky had 20 or more passing attempts, he has only had a completion percentage over 70% in 14 games. 3 of those have occurred in the last 3 weeks. That really stood out to me. Obviously, the coaches have made some changes to make things easier on him, which has had led to some promising results. I however do not know if it will be enough to keep him around or if that type of play is sustainable because he is still one of, if not the worst deep ball QB in the game, and at some point that has to be fixed or teams will stack the box for both the run and short passes. This is still a concern for me:

Leno has been visibly better over the last few weeks. This style of running game suits him much better than the other crap they were doing earlier in the year. It also helps to have Whitehair next to him to help him on inside moves. Totally off topic, but I completely forgot that Wims and Miller are both 26 and only a year younger than ARob.

I am not disputing that a team has a 77% better chance to pick a quality player in the first 10 picks vs the next 10, though those older numbers don't account for a lot of different factors. I think it just comes down to how it is expressed. If you compare it to something like completion percentage. If one QB has completed 73% of his passes and another QB has completed 43% of his passes (same total attempts), are you going to say that the first QB completes 69% more of his passes than the 2nd QB, or that the first QB completes 30% more?

Unfortunately, due to all the lost revenue this year, it is going to come down to money. Pace has one year left on his deal (thru 2021) and Nagy has two left, thru 2022. So I could see them being more open to moving on after next season with only one contract to eat, and would be surprised if the organization eats two contracts this offseason considering how much they already lost due to COVID this year.

Yeah, that's the mistake. He should be throwing it to Kmet before hits the 15 for an easy score.

After seeing the Jets beat the Rams, then the Bengals beat the Steelers, I really hope the Bears don't crap the bed on this one with so much on the line. This is the worst team the Bears will face this year, 31st in DVOA, 25th Offensive DVOA and 31st in Defensive DVOA, only the Jets are worse. If the Bears manhandled the Texans, this should be a blowout, however, Minshew is actually really solid for a QB on a 1-13 team. He has thrown 16 TDs to 5 INTs and Robinson is one of the best RBs in the league. However, after those two and Chark, they have a bunch of very average players. The Jags defense is crazy bad, they have allowed 20 or more points in every game and 27 or more in all but two, and 8 games allowing 30+. The Bears have scored 30 in 3 straight. On offense the Jags are decent and will score some points, they have scored 24 or more in 7 games and have lost 6 by one score or less. It will depend on which Bears defense shows up. The one that shutdown the Texans or the leaky defense that has allowed 27, 30, and 25 in the other 3 games after the bye. I think the Bears pull this one out rather convincingly and setup for a potential playoff play-in game in Week 17 at home against GB. Immediately following this game, everyone needs to root for a SF win in ARZ which would put the Bears into the 7th seed heading into Week 17. Then on SNF, the Titans play the Packers. A Packers win and they will clinch home-field advantage and a first-round bye, but a loss and Saints win against MIN will guarantee a playoff implications show-down in Week 17 for the Bears and Packers. Bears 31-17

Looking back the Bears were 5-2 going into the Saints game that they lost in OT and where our defense couldn't defend Taysom Hill who scored on a TD reception. That was the game where Trubisky got hurt. Foles also had a decent game. So at that point, they were 5-3, but Foles wasn't terrible. However, then they lost to the Titans and Vikings where you could've went to Mitch before the bye, but he was hurt. I think he even went and got a 2nd opinion on his shoulder. Then the bye week hit and Trubisky was back against the Packers. So there really wasn't a chance for Trubisky to come back earlier than after the bye. The Coward thing boggles my mind. When Daniels went down, how could they not at least try Mustipher at Center at that point? Coward was so bad that he was affecting the entire offense.

10% more, 77% better.

You have a 77% chance of getting a better pick 13% of the time.

Another cool nugget, Kmet played every offensive snap. Every one of them. So there were no keys to whether it was going to be a run or pass unless they were in empty. That has to be a Lazor thing because I never saw that with Nagy calling the plays. Just like you guys said, if you can line up and the defense can't tell whether you are running or passing, you already have an advantage and can play downhill. For most of the season, it looked like defenses were on the offensive and they knew what the play was and just needed to stop it. Now they have no clue and the offense still has room to improve.

It's those quick throws, which are fine with me. I watched the game again and one play stood out to me where I thought it was a bad throw initially and didn't realize what really happened. There was what looked like a bad throw behind Wims, but upon second look, Wims was held and couldn't get to his spot, so Mitch hitched when he saw that and then threw the ball away from the defenders side, but there was no penalty on the play. This dude wanted to make a comment about Mitch's pocket presence, but he didn't watch the play. Run this video a few times and watch Wims (where the pass goes), then watch Mitch again. No call on the play and the defender has a handful of jersey and was preventing Wims from getting to his spot. A few other promising stats, according to ESPN Next Gen Stats, Trubisky is 2nd in the league in Aggressiveness (only behind Tua) AND 4th in Air Yards to the Sticks (AYTS): https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

I am not disputing the raw math, you are correct. It just depends on how you express it because you can also say that 13 is 56% of 23. I am also not disputing the fact that the odds of selecting a quality player are higher the earlier you pick. What is odd is that based on "Approximate Value" on the chart I posted, there is virtually no difference between picks 10-22. So once you are out of the top 10, then the pick value levels off a little before falling again in the 20s.

Yeah, I agree. Also, with analytics and advanced scouting, I would almost say anything beyond 5 years in terms of drafting comparisons is almost irrelevant now.