adam

It is bad, especially considering the cap is going DOWN next year due to COVID to 175M. We have 32 players signed to 178M worth of contracts, and need to get to a 53 man roster. That is 21 players, so we are easily 25-30M over the cap without Trubisky, ARob, etc This is what 178M looks like: Offense: Foles, Cohen, Montgomery, Miller, Ridley, Wims, Mooney, Graham (10M), Kmet, Leno (11M), Massie (9M), Whitehair (9M), Daniels (2M), Hambright, Pierce, Mustipher, Clark. Defense: Mack (26M), Quinn (14M), Goldman (8M), Smith, Trevathan, Iyiegbuniwe, Fuller (20M), Skrine, Jackson (11M), Johnson, Shelley, Vildor, Roberson, Lucas.

AG, the main reason is the cap crunch for next season. The Bears are over the cap by 25M at a minimum, so there is not much you can do that this point. That's why ARob hasn't been or will not be extended, they can't fit him into the cap that is already grossly over the limit. There is no choice, this was the last year with Trubisky on his 4th year without a 5th year option and Foles in as the backup. It didn't work with this core and now you have too many guys coming up on new deals. This team is still a QB and a few OL away from being a true contender. The defense is good enough to keep you in games like yesterday but the offense is literally the worst in the league. The Jets have a better offense, that says a lot. The Quinn signing was a desperation signing that was not needed. Pace would've been better off signing 2 OL for the same price. The team would look completely different if we signed Conklin and Bulaga and had a line with those two, Whitehair and Daniels. Then you could've kicked Massie or Leno inside or tried to trade them for anything (even if you had to retain some salary). I think we are a 7-8 win team with those two at tackle and without Quinn. Mingo and Edwards have played great for vet minimums. Urban too. It's unfortunate because this defense was very solid.

The Bears really have to look at a fire sale this offseason. They need to move on from Mack (26.6M), Quinn (14.7M), Leno (11.3M), Graham (10M), Massie (9.3M), and Skrine (6.1M). Mack and Quinn would have to be traded, and I would try really hard to move at least one of them.

Just think, the defense held Henry to 68 yards rushing and 3.2 a carry. Tannehill had 158 yards passing with 47.6% completions and Foles had 335 passing yards and 2 TDs and 0 INTs and the Bears lost by 7.

What.a.joke. So the offense scores 17 and allows 7 for a net +10 pts, the defense allows 17 and lose. Both TD's against Skrine in coverage. Mack and Quinn still have not shown up on the stat sheet, yet again, but Edwards and Mingo are balling out? Two fumbles on offense, one taken back for a TD. This was all on Nagy, zero clock management. On the Bears last first TD drive, the Bears had the ball with 7:21 left at the TEN 30. Nick Foles threw an incompletion on 3rd Down from the 25 at 5:33. So 3 plays took almost 2 minutes!!!!! The Bears were down 3 scores, so have to score with well over 6 minutes left to give yourself a chance. Then, guess what happens, even after a Miller fumble, you still have enough time to score and do an onside kick. If you didn't waste 2 minutes, you could've kicked off to TEN and had a chance to win the game with about 50 seconds left, if the defense made another stop. Unbelievable.

Good point Mongo, that is definitely some added motivation. If you look at the numbers clearly show more picks has a higher chance at success than one pick (unless it is QB).

This is what the Bears have been up against this year, their 3 losses have come against teams with a top 10 Defensive DVOA, and the Titans come in with the 20th ranked Defensive DVOA. I feel like the opponent's defenses have not gotten enough credit for what they have done to the offense. I think we are going to see a better offensive game, even with the patchwork O-Line. I still have my doubts, but more optimistic than I was originally. I am going with Titans 27-23 and the Bears cover, but I can see the Bears winning this by a FG. A couple of key injuries for Titans, Clowney is questionable, Kern (their punter) is out, and Humphries, their slot WR is also out. Defensive DVOA: DET - 17 W NYG - 18 W ATL - 22 W IND - 3 L TB - 1 W CAR - 25 W LAR - 9 L NO - 8 L TEN - 20 MIN - 16

If you watch the play, it is very similar to how he got hurt the last time. Every time he runs, he puts his right elbow down to brace his fall. Then he gets hit and all that weight comes down on his elbow then shoulder. Same shoulder, which now makes him very injury prone. He needs to learn how to be tackled or go down to the ground safely. Not with his arms or elbows out like that. They also brought in a few other QBs for practice squad tryouts. I would not be surprised if they didn't put Trubisky on IR for the rest of the year. That would get him off the sideline and people wouldn't be clamoring for him anymore. Something to watch.

Bears getting 6 pts. Hard to see how the Bears pull this one out after the last two games. Offensive Line is decimated and we are not very good at stopping the run. Henry looks to have a big day. Until they show anything, this is an L. The only way I can see them winning is if they get a Special Teams or Defensive score. Titans 27-13.

I posted this on Twitter, more related to Pace than Nagy. For basically the same price for Robert Quinn, the Bears could've had two top 12 OTs: Bulaga, Conklin, and Mingo vs Massie, Leno, and Quinn.

I agree Mongo, and it is an indictment on Nagy's locker room. Zero accountability.

Has anyone seen Darnold's numbers? He has been a bottom 5 QB for the last 3 years. Just like Mitch, he is not going to get much better. I would not trade more than a 6th for him.

Yeah, the Patterson experiment is over. Miller is only going to get better with more targets, and the way he, Mooney, and ARob all run routes, someone is definitely open on every play. Taking Graham out in the RZ was stupid. Did you see them double him the next time? So even if he is a decoy, the other teams are accounting for him in the RZ. With Kmet, there should be no reason he comes off the field, even in the RZ. If you bring in Graham, leave Kmet out there. That would seem to be a matchup problem, especially if you send Graham to the outside. Yes please, just play football. You can have misdirection and motion, but get rid of the gadget plays. They don't work and most are very predictable.

Yeah, that was me on the TO. What the hell was that? It was a low scoring game, and you just scored and would get the ball back after half. The Saints were going to let the clock run out, or let them call the timeout. That was the difference in the game, 7 pts right there. Yes, 4th Down inside your own Red Zone, you are not going to fool anyone. It's embarrassing. They were on their own 32 and ended up punting from the 13? They lost 19 yards in that sequence. A false start on CP, wtf was that? Then NO gets a 42-yard return on a 45-yard punt. Then somehow the defense holds the Saints to a FG. That was an epic stop.

There were two things that really stood out to me about the game, amongst a million things going on. First, why would Nagy call a timeout when the Saints have the ball at their 40 and a 3rd down up 13-3 when it looks like the Saints are content to let the clock run out and get into half? I understand the thought process of getting a stop and getting the ball back, but how realistic was that going to be with under a minute left and having the ball inside your 20? It would've been totally different if the Saints were inside their 30, but not at the 40. I thought that was too risky and sure enough, the Saints have enough time to score a TD before half and cut the lead to 3. Terrible. Then when we are down 10 with 6:24 left, at the Saints 12. It took 3 minutes to score a TD, 3 minutes to get 12 yards. That is insane. Some of the worst clock management I have ever seen. We needed two scores, so why are wasting that much time? In those 3 minutes, the Bears ran only 6 plays, 3 runs, a pass behind the LOS to Miller (loss of 3), the Graham DPI, and the TD to Mooney. WTF was that? Then you get the ball back and now only have 1:51 left to get in FG range to tie the game. So now you are moving the ball and get to the Saints 49 with 1:12 left with 2 timeouts left, and you decide to RUN THE BALL for no gain, and just like that you have to burn a timeout and now only have 38 seconds left at the 47. 34 seconds, 2 yards, seriously.

The problem with Nagy and Pace is they both think they are the smartest guys in the room, and you can't convince them otherwise. Think of all the cute stuff that Nagy has tried, Sowell as a TE, CP as a RB, Coward conversion to OL, and even when that doesn't work, they keep going back to it regardless of the outcome. There is no way you can look at the tape of Coward and say he is doing anything beyond what some guy on another team's practice squad can't do. There is no way he should be a starter in the NFL, but they keep sending him out there. Look at how Nagy handled Long last year, he had one bad game, and was shit canned for the rest of the year with a phantom injury that he didn't have. The undisciplined play, penalties, etc, all point to coaching failures. Those are not because Nagy is calling plays. Something has to give. Fire Ragone, somebody. Looking back, the crazy thing is this team has underperformed every season under Nagy. When they went 12-4, they had the best defense in the NFL in a decade, but still lost 4 games and couldn't win a single playoff game. That was a 14 win team with nothing less than a SB appearance talent. Then in 2019, there was no way that same team with a few injuries regresses like that. They were barely winning games last year. They won 6 by 7 pts or less, 1 by 10, and beat WAS by 16. The other teams only scored more than 24 twice, yet we only won 8 games. Now this season, and we have a top 5 defense and we keep losing. To me the common denominator is Nagy.

The skill of the players has overcome inept coaching for the last few years. It is so clear to see out on the field. Nagy replaced Trubisky with Foles and now after a few games, it is clear that QB was not the problem. If Nagy is unwilling to have someone else take over playcalling and admit fault (which started in KC), he needs to be fired. If he is willing to do that, then he can stay on as the HC. Otherwise, I am done with him. I don't care about the record, we are underachieving.

We also lost to a team without their top 3 WRs. Think about that for a second......

What a horrible loss. The wheels are off the dumpster. Bears now 5-3 and out of the playoffs. Easy loss next week to the Titans to go to 5-4, then a possible loss against the Vikings who just beat the Packers and we might end up 5-5 at the bye after a 5-1 start. 4 straight losses is a firing offense for me. Garbage game plan, the same stupid calls. I still don't understand why they go away from what is working to run into the back of your offensive lineman on back to back plays to burn time off the clock to give you no chance to win the game. Nagy is the worst play caller in the NFL. Bears up 13-3, the Saints have the ball at their 40 with a 3rd Down and Nagy calls a timeout. Guess what happens? The Saints get the first down, then go down without any resistance to score a TD to close the half. I get that you are trying to get the ball back, but you just scored and were getting the ball after halftime. At least make NO call the timeout there. Then the defense, what kind of coverage is that? Cook wide open with Johnson 5 yards behind him in the end zone? A backup QB gets an easy TD catch? We paid all that money for Mack and Quinn and Quinn is a ghost out there. That looks like wasted money right now. I get that the defense has to deal with the bad offense, but they don't do themselves favors. Skrine's penalty basically sealed the game for the Bears in OT. It was a bad pass and would've been incomplete. The penalties, the Wims crap, this is an undisciplined team, and that points to coaching too. I would not mind seeing a coaching change sooner than later. It is just not going to work with Nagy. He is too stubborn to make the changes that are needed to get over the hump. This is going to be a rough season. I am thinking 7-9 or 8-8 at best and nowhere near the playoffs.

Rams down by 18, Stafford threw a pick-6, now down by 21, Packers down by 14. These early games are going perfectly for us. Now a win would be huge for us as we would move ahead of the Packers in the Division and Conference.

Dalvin Cook has more yards than the entire GB team. We need to use Monty the same way. This is the blue print to dominate them.

Some interesting early games. Rams down big in Miami (Goff with 4 turnovers in the 1st half), Vikings and Packers tied at halftime, and the Lions losing badly against Indy.

This is a huge game for playoff implications. New Orleans is the 8th seed and with a win, would knock us from the 5th seed to no better than the 8th seed (outside looking in). With a Bears win, they would still be the top non-division leading team and would be keeping pace with GB with 2 games against them (which may ultimately decide the division). With a loss, the Saints would fall to 4-3 and would be 2 games out of a playoff spot with 9 to play.

Lucky, the percentage does drop but the biggest dropoff happens after pick 11-12. After that, there are groups who perform relatively similar. So trading down always yields better odds. Also, you always have less higher picks, and based on how the Bears have picked in the first and second rounds over the past 25 years, it would seem like a pretty easy decision to move down. Now again, you can't do it every time, and if there is someone there with high value, you take them. However, if there is no consensus shoe-in pick at that point, you look to move down and gain draft capital. You can look at different drafts and take a common sample size and compare two points in the draft where you could not tell which group was drafted first. In 2015, Pick 122 (4th Round) to pick 149 (5th Round), in those 28 picks, you had Zadarius Smith, Kwon Alexander, Grady Jarrett, and Jay Ajayi as Pro Bowlers with Stefon Diggs, Adrian Amos, Max Garcia, Mark Glowinski, Shaq Mason, and Mike Davis. If you don't count injury (Ajayi), 9 of those 10 players could be starting on the Bears today. Smith, Alexander, Jarrett, Ajayi, Diggs, Amos, Garcia, Glowinski, Mason, and Davis, those 10 players draft slots are equivalent to a mid-2nd Round pick. Pick 50-52 = Ronald Darby, Nate Orchard, Jordan Phillips that year. So I know this is not exactly how it works, but if I can trade 1x mid-2nd Rounder for the equivalent to 10 late 4th, early 5th rounders, the odds of me hitting on a few are way higher than hitting on the single pick. You also don't have to take the capital in the same year. So move back in the 2nd, add a 4th this year and a 4th next year. After doing that for a few years, you now magically have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds every draft. Now you have the flexibility to move back up or move down as needed. Another factor that shows with a lot of teams is depth. You mention filling your roster with good players. That is exactly how you win. The odds of injury is so high that unless you have quality depth or good players beyond your starting 22, you are going to get beat. Just think of sub packages, a defense needs closer to 15-16 starting quality players nowadays. You will never get there drafting the way Pace has since he came to Chicago.