adam

Mitch was the safest pick. The biggest issue with Pace was not doing his due diligence on all the QBs. Watson was never brought in for a private workout. Just from all the stories coming out about the secret visit with Mitch and things like that. Pace really thought he was fooling everyone, then the trade up 1 pick was ridiculous given that there were no teams with enough draft capital and the need to move up to #2 without giving up their entire draft class and next year's pick.

Both teams come in tied at 6-7, with only 3 games remaining, this has become an elimination game. The team that wins has a 50/50 shot at a playoff slot while the loser is pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. It really comes down to which one of each of these teams shows up.

In July the NFLPA agreed to a floor of $175M and the expectation is that it will end up very close to that floor. It was $198M this year, so a $23M drop + the loss of the normal annual growth and you are looking at anywhere from $25-$30M less than what most GM's had projected.

Based on a 1/3 of the league being in cap hell for next year, I expect there is going to be a ton of short term deals with super high guarantees. In a way, the teams with a ton of cap space will have an extra advantage like never before because some teams are going to have to cut guys or trade them for peanuts just to get under the cap. The following teams will have over $20M in cap space: JAX - $75M - need QB NYJ - $68M - need QB IND - $58M - need QB NE - $58M - need QB WAS - $47M - need QB CIN - $35M MIA - $26M CLE - $22M BAL - $21M DAL - $21M - Prescott? LAC - $21M Cincinnati is really postured well with some nice cap space AND a QB. With how much cap space JAX has, I would seriously consider trading one of our Mack ($26M), Fuller (20M), or Jackson ($11M) to them just to reduce the cap hit. I doubt they would take Quinn or Leno, but those two are boat anchors right now. Pace should be fired for this alone, in 2021 Mack and Quinn will account 23.5% of the cap, with Mack, Quinn, and Fuller accounting for 36.5% of the entire team's cap space. 3 players out of 51. The new GM will have to fit 48 more players in 63.5% of the cap, that is absolutely insane and borderline criminal.

Now that would be a serious full circle, but I wouldn't put it past them. Like you said, he is a better fit in that type of offense and is "good enough" with the right pieces.

I don't think franchise or transition tag is an option. For a QB it is projected to be around $23.5M for the franchise tag and $21M for the transition tag. Now for someone like Prescott, it makes a lot of sense. You don't have to pay him $30M+ like most of the top 10 QB salaries. For Trubisky, however, it would not make sense, nor do they have the cap space to sign him. Earlier in the year when I looked at the cap (after the Cohen extension), I realized that it looked like the team was deciding on ARob vs Trubisky, but both was never going to be an option. Then when the actual cap came out, it made neither being signed or extended the most likely outcome. The only way I can see that changing is if somehow miraculously the Bears win out and sneak into the playoffs with Trubisky leading the way. However, Trubisky might then play himself into a bigger contract that leads him out of town anyway. So it just seems like there is no scenario where either A. they can fit him in the cap or B. he plays good enough to justify the new contract. Those two things are mutually exclusive.

I think the expectation was for Foles to be somewhere between what he did in ATL and what Trubisky did. I don't think anyone expected him to be that bad. Then when you should probably go back to Trubisky, he was injured, so you wait a few more weeks, but by then it is almost too late. I know the bye seemed like the best option, but it would've been nice for him to get some live reps after being out that long before the GB game.

The O-Lines do make a huge difference. What is weird about Shanny's perception vs reality is he has yet to have 1,000 yard rusher in SF as the HC (in 4 years) and is 28-33 as a HC with what looks like to be his 3rd losing season out of 4. Every team has injuries, but SF and Shanny seem to get some of the biggest benefit of doubt with them than any other team in the league.

I agree that you play to win until officially eliminated because you can't predict the order of the wins and losses as they come in. PIT and TEN got their Week 4 game postponed, then DEN, DET, GB, and NE had byes in Week 5. TEN started 5-0, and is 4-4 since without a break. Obviously, PIT won 11 straight and has now dropped 2 straight and don't look particularly good for the best record in the NFL. GB has now played in 9 straight weeks, and that will eventually catch up to you.

Trubisky posted the Bears' highest QBR for the season at 67.8, and yet it's only the 24th highest for an NFC North QB this season. Rodgers has 11 games better, and Stafford and Cousins both have 6. That is how far the QB position has come back down to earth after 2018. Trubisky only had one start better than 67.8 in 2019, the Week 14 win against Dallas (83.3). In 2018, Trubisky had the top 2 NFC North QB performances, 4 out of the top 5, AND 6 out of the top 10 with 6 games with an 83.0 or higher. He had 9 starts with a QBR of 68.0 or higher in 2018, and 2 since.

I don't know how much better he would be. Would he be better, yes, not by much. Is he more mobile than a traditional pocket passer, yes, but it's not like he is elusive or truly a mobile QB. Speaking of that vaunted SF offense, their starting QBs have 4 of the lowest QBR's for a game this season.

If the Bears win out and ARZ loses one, they would have the same record, conference record, but the Bears would have the tiebreaker with common games. ARZ wins against NYG, losses to LAR, DET, CAR, and one remaining against LAR, max 2-3 in common games, or at worst 1-4. CHI wins against NYG, DET, CAR, losses against DET, LAR, 3-2 in common games. If MIN loses to CHI and CHI wins their remaining games, MIN can finish no better than 8-8. The Bears have to beat the Vikings this week in Minnesota, or none of it will matter. The team that loses is basically eliminated based on tie-breakers and would need ARZ to lose their remaining 3 AND the winner of Bears-Vikings to lose their last 2 to get in. Here is the remaining schedules: ARZ - PHI, SF, @LAR MIN - CHI, @NO, @DET CHI - @MIN, @JAX, GB

After seeing what Philly did to NO, an ARZ win is not a lock for next week. SF always plays them tough and the Rams are still in it from a bye perspective.

Trubisky would have to be willing to take a lot less (under $10M to fit him under the cap).

Who is taking on $36M for Brees? If they cut him that is over $22M in dead money. They are 100M over the cap, so even if they cut him, that saves just over $13M. They would have to do that with another 6-8 starters, then have another 4-5 to restructure just to make it under the cap with a roster of about 40 players.

I am torn on this. On one side I like the fact that he made the changes, but on the other side, it seems like either complete stubbornness or stupidity that he waited so long to make such an obvious change (on the playcalling). For the first time, in what feels like a year, they were actually playing to Trubisky's strengths, cutting the field in half, and making some easy throws.

Monty is excellent if he is not hit in the backfield. He just has a few habits he needs to break. One is when he catches a swing pass, he immediately does a little stop step like he thinks he is going to take a hit, even when he is open, so he loses all his momentum.

I thought the Bears had cap issues, but the Saints are close to $100M OVER the cap. The Eagles are $70M over, the Falcons $38M, Steelers $32M, Packers $27M, Rams $25M, Chiefs $24M, Raiders $15M, Texans $14M, and Vikings $11M. I honestly have no clue what the Saints are going to do. They can't cut enough guys. They are going to have to trade a ton of guys like Thomas and group him with a bad contract, and then give them away for basically nothing.

He also lost his receiver on the dropped TD pass. The TE was wide open but he was looking right into the sun. So the sun was better at coverage than Jackson was. I don't know what it is but he hasn't been the same since 2018. With his huge deal, I wouldn't mind moving on from him this offseason.

The Bears scored in the 3rd quarter. 33-7, and the Texans coming out in their first drive chewing up the clock with a bunch of runs.

There it is.

That's partly on Watson, who seems like he is holding onto the ball forever.

Yeah so you are basically swapping Fuller+Hicks for ARob. That doesn't seem like a good trade-off for a comparable cap hit. ARob is going to get paid, I just don't think it's with the Bears.

I know, on both sides of the ball. The blindly obvious things they should've been doing all year.

Wow, Bears send Smith on a blitz and him and Mack converge on Watson in the end zone for a safety, a play after Nichols gets a huge sack when Watson holds onto the ball too long. Probably the best back to back plays for the defense in 2 months.