adam

So the 3rd Quarter Bears show up again and score 0 AGAIN. The Bucs obviously get a FG to take the lead. We get a FG ourselves after an uptempo drive. However, Foles wanted to keep it going, but Nagy called a huddle and the team went backwards and they almost didn't score. Luckily Santos hit a season high 47 yarder. Then TB drives back down and hit their own FG to take the lead. After basically exchanging 3 and outs, Foles is able to drive the team into FG position, and amazingly Santos hit the GW FG. The defense shuts the door and Tom Brady wanted 5 downs apparently. Regardless, it's another win, and now versus a legitimate team, in conference. Bears are 4-1.

A pretty crazy half. The Bears were down 13-0 and then finally mustered a TD drive. Then Kyle Fuller decides to kill a man with a textbook hit over the middle, forcing a fumble and the Bears recover in TB territory. The offense capitalizes and scores another TD on a pass to Graham to take the lead into the half 14-13. Within two minutes, they go from shutout by 13, to up 14-13. Outside of one weird play (where they allowed a 35 yard reception) where no Bear seemed to want to tackle, they haven't allowed a play longer than 13 yards to Gronk. The Bears still killing themselves with penalties. Two more that gave TB first downs. Besides that one long play and the two penalties, the defense has been solid. For what seems like the millionth time, ARob has a ball hit his hands that ends up as an INT. This time he juggles a back shoulder throw right into the defenders hands for an INT. Foles threw the ball only where ARob could catch it, maybe a little short, but for that to end up as an INT sucks. Foles is still a work in progress, but even without a running game, he has a much better command of the offense. Now he needs to get some better timing with the receivers, which is not quite there yet.

Ok, so the injury report is out; Godwin is out, Howard is on IR, Evans will be a true game time decision with a bad ankle. Fournette is doubtful, McCoy is out, and Scotty Miller is also questionable but expected to play. So we catch a break again with both Godwin and Howard out, and Evans and Miller not playing at 100%. That is 4 of the top 5 receivers out or injured. That leaves Gronk as the only non-RB with more than 2 catches. So I expect Ronald Jones to see a lot of action and dump offs tonight. He will also see alot of rushing attempts. The Colts were not this beat up or playing away on a short week. The Bears have no excuse not to win this game. I don't see how TB scores more than Indy did last week. I am changing my prediction to Bears 23-17.

It is still a roster spot that will likely not see the field. It feels like a waste if he is there only as a "voice".

Yep, Skrine has been solid, Trevathan still the weakest link in coverage. I also don't like using Mack in coverage. The scheme needs to change where he is attacking the QB on every snap.

So Bray got activated for the Colts game and Trubisky doesn't have backup QB duties on the sidelines. I know Nagy tried to downplay this, but there has to be more to this. Nagy said that Bray knows the offense, here is the quote: To me this is a huge knock on Trubisky. So the guy that has started in the offense since you've arrived, has more reps in your offense than any other QB in the league doesn't know the offense well enough to help out the new starting QB, but a PS QB does? Doesn't that seem odd to you? There are several theories floating around but if you peel the onion back, there has to be more to this. Trubisky doesn't want to handle in-game back up duties, or he can't? They don't want Trubisky on the Scout Team because he can't run the other teams plays well enough? Why would a veteran of Foles' caliber need a "voice" on the sidelines. Is Trubisky not providing that voice? The crazy theories are related to Trubisky being on the trading block, which makes sense considering he will be a UFA after this season. Do they move him before the trading deadline once Bray has a few weeks as the backup? Time will tell.

No matter what metric you use, Johnson is near the top for all CBs this season. As much as I am on Pace about Kmet and other draft picks not to be named here, Johnson was a steal in the 2nd round. It almost makes Pace look dumb for not drafting Johnson first. I was just hoping for play equivalent to Prince, but Johnson has far exceeded that and at times has been the best DB on the team, which says a lot. If he keeps this up, he has a chance at Rookie, Pro-Bowl, and possibly All-Pro honors. He will need a few INTs to be in the All-Pro discussion, but he is right there right now in every other metric.

Now Johnson deserves his own thread.

I hope so, because it doesn't seem too hard for him to only have a few routes with minor wrinkles for blitzes and audibles.

I sure hope so, but we are already at the quarter pole of the season. I am good with 2-3 balls a game and 3-4 targets, but my fear is he is not getting open, so neither QB is looking his way. The only other factor is the play caller is not using him at all, which is also concerning.

He has the same output as Adam Shaheen had thru a quarter of the season of his rookie year. This kid was supposed to be pro-ready, had the playbook down in a week, etc. Then nothing.

So what gives with this guy? He has the same amount of receptions as Bobby Massie and Ryan Nall, 1. He is 11th on the team in receptions and has only been targeted 3 times all season and was not targeted against Atlanta. For a 2nd round pick, you would expect at least a little better production at this point. If you remember, there were some other TE names the team could've targeted, guys like Adam Trautman who was supposed to be a project, has 3 receptions for 34 yds, Harrison Bryant has 7-59 and a TD. Instead of Kmet, they had Antoine Winfield Jr. sitting there, Jeremy Chinn or even Antonio Gibson who looks great with Washington. Those were all players we were talking about before the draft. Pace went with Kmet, and we are not getting any production out of that pick so far. I feel like that is also part of the offensive problems. Johnson has replaced Prince but Kmet is not improving the offense. I almost regret not taking any Offensive Lineman at that pick as that seems to be the weakness of the team again.

I liked him in the H-Back role and don't understand why that disappeared. He was very effective in that role. With Cohen out, he needs more PT.

Oh absolutely, I am not a fan of Leno's and don't think we have a big enough interior to do what they want to do. Whitehair and Daniels are both good technicians, but not road graders. So it is a layered problem that at times can bottom out. We really need a true fullback or someone that can move a LB.

Yeah, he rolled his ankle or knee a little bit, and you are right. 12 straight games is no joke, especially considering the preseason just ended (4 games). I could see GB really sputtering to the finish line this year.

Which is odd considering Robert Tonyan had 3 TDs last night. So who knows.

So things are still on schedule to finish with double-digit wins based on a 3-1 record. To get to 10 wins, the Bears have to win 7 out of the next 12. Five of those games come against teams with 1 win or less. After the easy start, the Bears are now in the meat of their schedule. This is where you just have to survive. So if they can go 3-3 in the next 6 to go into the bye at 6-4, I think they will be ok. You would prefer 7-3 or better, but being realistic, 6-4 seems attainable. Then after the bye with some fresh legs you get DET, HOU, MIN, and JAX, all of whom should be getting ready to mail it in with GB as bookend games on those four. GB may be resting starters in Week 17, depending on what they look like at that point. They will be competing with Seattle for the #1 seed, so my hope is Seattle has it locked up and GB wants to rest starters that week before the WC Round. Here is the remaining schedule: TB 3-1 W @CAR 2-2 W @LAR 3-1 L NO 2-2 L @TEN 3-0 L MIN 1-3 W BYE @GB 4-0 L DET 1-3 W HOU 0-3 W @MIN 1-3 W @JAX 1-3 W GB 4-0 L

Atlanta looked better than they did against us in the 4th quarter, but not as good as they looked in the first 3 quarters against us. GB is not as good as they look. They are not playing like SEA or KC. They had the luxury of playing with a lead and had a 3 score lead at half. Even then, they still allowed two second half TDs and ATL made it a 2-score game with 13 mins left, but then their defense folded again and allowed a late FG that basically put the game out of reach. GB has played two common opponents in DET and ATL, and two different opponents (MIN/NO) vs (NYG/IND). IND is the best team out of those 4 and NYG is the worst, so it makes sense that the Bears beat NYG and lost to IND. GB beat NO by 7, which was the closest competition they have had. The best part is GB finally got the short stick for the bye weeks. They have a bye this week, which will make things interesting later in the year when they have to play 12 straight weeks.

They added a 7th team per conference (3rd WC Team) and only the #1 seed gets a first round bye, the remaining 6 play (DIV2 vs WC3, DIV3 vs WC2, DIV4 vs WC1) in the first round. Then the 3 winners and the #1 seed play the two games in the Divisional Round. So ultimately they added one additional WC Game.

That's funny Bill. Back to the game. So to play devil's advocate, the Colts came into the game as the #1 DVOA team in the league, and left 4th. So actually played a decent game against a very underrated opponent. Now we get to face TB on short rest who are now #1 in DVOA. So in back to back weeks, we will have faced to #1 most efficient team entering the game.

So thru a quarter of the season, the Bears are 3-1 and have a 52% chance to make the playoffs. The NFC East will only send one team, so the competition is going to come from the West and South. After TB, NO has a 72.6% to make the playoffs, which would put them in the #2 Wild Card slot. In the West, after Seattle, LAR has a 72.8% chance to make the playoffs for the #1 Wild Card slot. So the Bears are the WC3 slot (7th) ahead of SF at 40% and ARZ at 33%, both teams are 2-2. What is interesting is we faced the #1 DVOA team last week against IND (they are now 4th), and will face TB who is now #1 this week. So we are definitely hitting a gauntlet right now. Our defense is still in the top 10 (7th) but our offense is 27th and Special Teams is 30th.

Thursday Night Football, where home teams normally have an advantage. Both teams come in 3-1, but the Bucs are favored by 5. The Bucs are stingy against the run, which won't help the Bears running game, but the passing defense is in the bottom half of the league. I am not as impressed with TB as the media is. They beat a rookie QB in Herbert at home (West Coast team playing on East Coast) by 7, a bad and depleted Denver team, and another injured team in Carolina. They have led in every game and scored first in all 4 games. So they have always played with a lead. OJ Howard was lost for the season and Godwin is still injured. With a short week, injuries will be key. The Bears have yet to win a coin toss and have not scored in the 3rd quarter this season. That will come to an end on Thursday. The Bucs are 3-0 when they score 28 or more, and 0-1 when they score 23 or less. The Bears are 3-0 when they score 17 or more, and 0-1 when they score 11 or less. I think the Bears benefit from the short week and get TB at the right time, Bears 23-21 in a close one.

Did anyone see the GB-ATL game on MNF? The announcers were gloating over how good Aaron Rodgers played, but no one said anything about the fact that he was throwing to wide open receivers and at times had 2 or 3 guys to choose from. That has nothing to do with Rodgers, he had the easy job. It was the scheme and play calls. You could tell that the routes played off each other to create artificial picks and rubs and cleared space in specific areas of the field. This was what every play basically looked like. Just watch the game highlights on NFL.com, Rodgers doesn't have to do anything. The scheme is working, putting the defense on their heels, and making them over-commit which creates a ton of space. This is why I feel like Nagy's scheme (whatever that is) is holding the offense back. If they can scheme Robert Tonyan open for 6-98 and 3 TDs, we should be able to do the same with Kmet. Rodgers had 20 completions to TEs and RBs and only 7 completions to WRs, yet he threw for 300+ yds and 4 TDs with over 80% completion percentage. There is no reason why the Bears can't do this with Foles or Trubisky.

Both defenses are underrated allowing about 20 per game, but yeah, zero TDs? The Bears allow one and score one TD and lose. The games still come down to one or two plays. If Mack intercepts the ball that hit him in the hands, we are already in the RZ. If Miller doesn't allow a ball to sail through his hands, there might be more points there. I just don't understand how professional athletes can drop a ball they have played with their entire lives so easily. Indy was a trap game. They knew Foles very well, Burton there to fill the team in on Nagy specifics, Pagano recently there, etc, etc. It was a bad matchup all the way around. I thought the Indy defense was snuffing plays a little too easily. Then we still have the penalty issue. The officials refuse to call holding on Mack and/or call a penalty on a Bear but not the other team for the same type of play. How can a player dive at Foles knees and not get a penalty because they said the OLineman pushed him into him, but Edwards gets a penalty for hitting Ryan in the head when Ryan was tackled into Edwards? I have no issues with missed calls when they are even, but we have been on the short end every game so far.

I have been saying this since the demotion. We didn't get anything from Floyd leaving (who has 2 sacks in LA btw), so there is no point keeping him on the roster to get nothing for him after the season. Trade him before the deadline, and with so many QB needy teams, there should be some serious interest. I would assume a 4-5th is where they will go, but I will have to look at previous in-season trades for QBs to see what they received.