adam

I agree, if I am Pace, I am already on the phone with TB. It seems that they wouldn't even want another pick this year (they already had two 4ths), how about a pick in 2021, which would be more useful to them.

Seems fishy to me, like it was preplanned for a long time. See my edits in the first post. I think it was their plan all along. TB has enough to absorb Gronk's 10M but NE didn't.

Madness, to me this was all setup. Gronk retires, Brady doesn't return to NE. He has the pick of the league, picks TB, then after NE signs enough players that prevents them from taking on Gronk's contract, he magically unretires which forces NE's hand to make a trade immediately (they cannot go over the cap). To me, this seems way too convenient. Also, TB magically had enough to take on his contract.

Yeah, that guide is impressive. He put a ton of time and effort into that thing. I am surprised he didn't sell it on Amazon as a real draft guide. With The Athletic being free right now, everyone can get that guide which I highly recommend. Also, the password is case sensitive, so it's actually: Bea$t20! I've attached the guide to this post, no need for password: 2020_NFL_DRAFT.pdf

That's exactly what I am saying. If you get a trade offer to move down at 43, you have to take it because it might not be there later.

Top 300 players, ranked by consensus: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSTYaxInC66nU_dSdw8HEMMI-n4Mh4WcaZDxVkEHw_8Mv2326DRo68HcVYuZL3zS7fv2PtZtCKE_7Fd/pubhtml Pretty sweet and updated regularly. It will come in handy on draft day. Interesting guys at 43 and 50: Laviska Shenault and Lloyd Cushenberry.

Without knowing if you would even have a trade partner at 50, you almost have to take it to give you 4 picks in the top 100.

Without knowing what can play out at 50, if you get a trade back option that gives you a couple of picks in the top 150 at 43, you have to take it, because the trade option may not be there at 50.

Floyd, Prince, and Gabriel were all logical moves. Burton's was questionable based on the dead money, but it was clear the team felt it was better without him. Outside of the Burton move, not much else has happened that was unexpected. We will see what happens on draft day, that may be when they move a few other guys one way or another.

Drew Brees also had 3 full college seasons starting at QB. So technically he was 2 years ahead of Trubisky before entering the league. With that said, I saw something on Twitter awhile back that the probability of a QB turning things around after 3 full seasons in the league was something like 3% (with Brees being one of those QBs). One interesting twist was that almost all the QBs that did turn it around changed teams. So the likelihood of Trubisky improving on the Bears is probably around 1%.

RD1 RD2 RD3 RD4 RD5 RD6 RD7 PK/TM PK/TM PK/TM PK/TM PK/TM PK/TM PK/TM 1 CIN 3000 33 CIN 580 65 CIN 265 107 CIN 80 147 CIN 31.4 180 CIN 18.2 215 CIN 4.2 2 WAS 2600 34 IND 560 66 WAS 260 108 WAS 78 148 CAR 31 181 DEN 17.8 216 WAS 3.8 3 DET 2200 35 DET 550 67 DET 255 109 DET 76 149 DET 30.6 182 DET 17.4 217 SF 3.4 4 NYG 1800 36 NYG 540 68 NYJ 250 110 NYG 74 150 NYG 30.2 183 NYG 17 218 NYG 3 5 MIA 1700 37 LAC 530 69 CAR 245 111 HOU 72 151 LAC 29.8 184 CAR 16.6 219 MIN 2.6 6 LAC 1600 38 CAR 520 70 MIA 240 112 LAC 70 152 CAR 29.4 185 MIA 16.2 220 LAC 2.3 7 CAR 1500 39 MIA 510 71 LAC 235 113 CAR 68 153 MIA 29 186 LAC 15.8 221 CAR 2 8 ARI 1400 40 HOU 500 72 ARI 230 114 ARI 66 154 MIA 28.6 187 CLE 15.4 222 ARI 1.7 9 JAX 1350 41 CLE 490 73 JAX 225 115 CLE 64 155 MIN 28.2 188 BUF 15 223 JAX 1.4 10 CLE 1300 42 JAX 480 74 CLE 220 116 JAX 62 156 SF 27.8 189 JAX 14.6 224 TEN 1.1 11 NYJ 1250 43 CHI 470 75 IND 215 117 TB 60 157 JAX 27.4 190 PHI 14.2 225 BAL 1 12 LV 1200 44 IND 460 76 TB 210 118 DEN 58 158 NYJ 27 191 NYJ 13.8 226 CHI 1 13 SF 1150 45 TB 450 77 DEN 205 119 ATL 56 159 LV 26.6 192 GB 13.4 227 MIA 1 14 TB 1100 46 DEN 440 78 ATL 200 120 NYJ 54 160 IND 26.2 193 IND 13 228 ATL 1 15 DEN 1050 47 ATL 430 79 NYJ 195 121 LV 52 161 TB 25.8 194 TB 12.6 229 WAS 1 16 ATL 1000 48 NYJ 420 80 LV 190 122 IND 50 162 WAS 25.4 195 NE 12.2 230 NE 1 17 DAL 950 49 PIT 410 81 LV 185 123 DAL 49 163 CHI 25 196 CHI 11.8 231 DAL 1 18 MIA 900 50 CHI 400 82 DAL 180 124 PIT 48 164 DAL 24.6 197 IND 11.4 232 PIT 1 19 LV 875 51 DAL 390 83 DEN 175 125 NE 47 165 JAX 24.2 198 PIT 11 233 CHI 1 20 JAX 850 52 LAR 380 84 LAR 170 126 LAR 46 166 DET 23.8 199 LAR 10.6 234 LAR 1 21 PHI 800 53 PHI 370 85 DET 165 127 PHI 45 167 BUF 23.4 200 CHI 10.2 235 DET 1 22 MIN 780 54 BUF 360 86 BUF 160 128 BUF 44 168 PHI 23 201 MIN 9.8 236 GB 1 23 NE 760 55 BAL 350 87 NE 155 129 BAL 43 169 NO 22.6 202 ARI 9.4 237 TEN 1 24 NO 740 56 MIA 340 88 NO 150 130 NO 42 170 BAL 22.2 203 NO 9 238 NYG 1 25 MIN 720 57 LAR 330 89 MIN 145 131 ARI 41 171 HOU 21.8 204 NE 8.6 239 BUF 1 26 MIA 700 58 MIN 320 90 HOU 140 132 MIN 40 172 NE 21.4 205 MIN 8.2 240 HOU 1 27 SEA 680 59 SEA 310 91 LV 136 133 SEA 39.5 173 MIA 21 206 JAX 7.8 241 NE 1 28 BAL 660 60 BAL 300 92 BAL 132 134 BAL 39 174 TEN 20.6 207 BUF 7.4 242 GB 1 29 TEN 640 61 TEN 292 93 TEN 128 135 PIT 38.5 175 GB 20.2 208 GB 7 243 TEN 1 30 GB 620 62 GB 284 94 GB 124 136 GB 38 176 SF 19.8 209 GB 6.6 244 CLE 1 31 SF 600 63 KC 276 95 DEN 120 137 JAX 37.5 177 KC 19.4 210 SF 6.2 245 SF 1 32 KC 590 64 SEA 270 96 KC 116 138 KC 37 178 DEN 19 211 NYJ 5.8 246 MIA 1 97 CLE 112 139 TB 36.5 179 DAL 18.6 212 NE 5.4 247 NYG 1 98 NE 108 140 JAX 36 213 NE 5 248 HOU 1 99 NYG 104 141 MIA 35.5 214 SEA 4.6 249 MIN 1 100 NE 100 142 WAS 35 250 HOU 1 101 SEA 96 143 ATL 34.5 251 MIA 1 102 PIT 92 144 SEA 34 252 DEN 1 103 PHI 88 145 PHI 33.5 253 MIN 1 104 LAR 86 146 PHI 33 254 DEN 1 105 MIN 84 255 NYG 1 106 BAL 82

I think the team will be fine with a mix of Graham, Harris, Horsted, and Holtz. They all have their own strengths which Nagy can leverage in the game plan. So with the class being so weak, I think the team doesn't even sniff a TE unless someone drops. I don't see them using any picks in the first 5 rounds on one.

Spriggs has only started a couple of games as he was stuck behind Bulaga and Bakhtiari for his entire career in GB. I bet he competes with Leno and Massie for a starting gig. They were that bad.

There was no way to pay Amos and pay EJack, so I believe they chose one and not the other. Howard is now on his 3rd team in 3 years, so most of the time that is a telling situation for a RB. Overall though, I wanted Floyd, Burton, and Leno gone. 2 out of 3 ain't bad for an offseason. Quinn is a huge upgrade over Floyd, Graham is an upgrade over the entire TE group, so all we have left is Leno/Massie to deal with.

The Bears also re-signed Holtz and Coward, and signed a kicker.

I like that Pace is being decisive and not holding onto guys; he let Floyd walk, traded Howard, let Amos go, etc. This makes the Graham signing look better now. I assume Shaheen is next. Any savings is good at this point for guys that won't contribute much. This also shows how far Burton has fallen out of favor with the team.

Former Packers 2nd Rounder, was stuck behind Bulaga and Bakhtiari, so it's hard to get a read on him. He was on IR last year, so who knows. Another guy to compete with the revolving bookends we already have. One year deal, probably near the vet minimum, it can't hurt.

I could see us moving back twice, so something like the Jets would be interesting. Move from 43 to 68, 79, and 158. Select at 50, then trade 68 for 80 and 121 with LV. Select at 79 and 80, and 121. We would have 6 picks in the top 163. 50, 79, 80, 121, 158, 163

We need to get a full list because based on the media, I have a feeling most of our picks this year will come from guys that the team interviewed, which was not necessarily the case in previous years.

Thanks, for me, I think BAL, PHI, and DEN are the most likely to make some moves with us based on the trade values. They have extra picks to use without losing a pick in that round. So they can give up their extra pick to get more value.

Here are the options for pick 50 (value: 400): Option 1 - Tennessee (2nd and 3rd) - A 2nd and a 3rd is good value for this pick. 61 TEN - 292 93 TEN - 128 Option 2 - LA Rams (2nd and 3rd) - A 2nd and a 3rd is good value for this pick. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. 57 LAR - 330 104 LAR - 86 Option 3 - Seattle (2nd and 3rd) - A 2nd and a 3rd is good value for this pick. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. 59 SEA - 310 101 SEA - 96 Option 4 - Buffalo (2nd and 4th). This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. 54 BUF - 360 128 BUF - 44 Option 5 - Philadelphia (2nd and 4th). This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. PHI has 8 total picks and 2x 4ths, so they could use a 4th here to move up in the 2nd. 53 PHI - 370 146 PHI - 33 Option 6 - Las Vegas (3rd, 3rd, and 5th) - Would Gruden want to move up to get a 2nd back? If so he would have to give up both of his 3rd's. 80 LV - 190 81 LV - 185 159 LV - 26.6 Option 7 - Denver (3rd, 3rd, and 5th) - Is Fangio/Elway willing to deal? If they want to move into the 2nd, it's at least 2x 3rd's. Denver has 3x 3rd round draft picks, so they may be willing to move up into the 2nd using 2x of them. They also have 10 total picks. I could see DEN doing this to get another 2nd rounder. They have 3x 3rd's, they could give up 2, and then would have 2x 2nds and a 3rd which is favorable for them. 77 DEN - 205 83 DEN - 175 178 DEN - 19 Option 8 - Baltimore (2nd and 4th). This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. BAL has 9 total picks and 2x 4ths. 55 BAL - 350 129 BAL - 43 Option 9 - Kansas City (2nd and 3rd) - A 2nd and a 3rd is good value for this pick. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. 63 KC - 276 96 KC - 116 Which options do you like for pick 50?

Ok, so I took a look at the trade values for both of the Bears 2nd round picks and which teams had compatible trade value options based on the picks they had. The options are based on the total value the team would get back, the options are in order of value the Bears would get back, so Option 1 has the most value. For the 43rd pick, it has a value of 470. These were the combination of picks I could see for that pick plus or minus giving up a 7th to make it work: Option 1 - Atlanta (2nd and 4th) 47 ATL - 430 119 ATL - 56 Option 2 - Baltimore (2nd and 3rd) - This one is nice, getting a 2nd and a 3rd. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. BAL has 9 total picks and multiple picks in the 3rd and 4th. So I can see them as movers. This is my projection. I think BAL moves up from 55 to 43 and gives us 92. 55 BAL - 350 92 BAL - 132 Option 3 - Denver (2nd, 5th, and 6th) - My least favorite option would be to only get an extra 5th and 6th. They also have 10 total picks. 46 DEN - 440 178 DEN - 19 181 DEN - 17.8 Option 4 - NY Jets (2nd and 4th). The Jets have 8 total picks so they may use the extra pick to move up. 48 NYJ - 420 120 NYJ - 54 Option 5 - Philadelphia (2nd, 3rd, and 6th) - Another great option if Philly is willing to give up 3 picks. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. Philly has 8 total picks, so they may use the extra one to move up. 53 PHI - 370 103 PHI - 88 190 PHI - 14.2 Option 6 - NY Jets (3rd, 3rd, and 5th) - 2x 3rds would be good here. The Jets have 8 total picks and 2x 3rd rounders, so they could use them here. 68 NYJ 250 79 NYJ 195 158 NYJ 27 Option 7 - Baltimore (2nd, 3rd, and 4th) - If we took the later 2nd from Baltimore, this would be very appealing with a late 4th to make it work. This is probably the best option and the value is 470 to 471. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. BAL has 9 total picks and multiple picks in the 3rd and 4th. So I can see them as movers. 60 BAL 300 92 BAL 132 134 BAL 39 Option 8 - Pittsburgh (2nd, 4th, and 6th) 49 PIT 410 124 PIT 48 198 PIT 11 Option 9 - LA Rams (2nd and 3rd) - This one is nice, getting a 2nd and a 3rd. This team is competitive and may want to move up to get a blue chip player. 52 LAR 380 104 LAR 86 Option 10 - Atlanta (2nd and 4th) 47 ATL 430 143 ATL 34.5 Option 11 - Dallas (2nd, 4th, and 5th) - This one gives us an extra 5th compared to some of the others giving up only a 4th. 51 DAL 390 123 DAL 49 164 DAL 24.6 Which options do you like for pick 43? I will do pick 50 next:

What about trading Massie or Leno for Howard?

Based on a few of the other depth guys we picked up, we are going to have a killer Special Teams unit.

I understand the rationale, but after trading up for Monty last year feels like this would be a redundant add so early in the draft. We definitely need another RB, but I can't see us taking one within the first few picks, and especially if we don't trade down. The entire league has shifted away from elite RBs. Look at the teams Barkley and McCaffrey are on, they are terrible. So an elite RB on his own is not going to do much for you. Again, I am not opposed to adding one, and someone like Taylor would be great, but I just don't see it. SF relied on guys like Mostert and Breida where neither were drafted. KC's leading back who almost was the SB MVP was also undrafted. That is not a coincidence. Now on your draft, it looks great outside of the early RB selection.