adam

From the Athletic, here is what Dane Brugler is projecting for the mid-2nd Round: 40. Houston Texans (from ARI) – Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU 41. Cleveland Browns – Jeremy Chinn, DS, Southern Illinois 42. Jacksonville Jaguars – Grant Delpit, DS, LSU 43. Chicago Bears (from LVR) – Lloyd Cushenberry, iOL, LSU 44. Indianapolis Colts – Michael Pittman, WR, USC 45. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia 46. Denver Broncos – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn 47. Atlanta Falcons – Jordan Elliott, DT, Missouri 48. New York Jets – Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado 49. Pittsburgh Steelers – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU 50. Chicago Bears – Curtis Weaver, Edge, Boise State 51. Dallas Cowboys – Terrell Lewis, Edge, Alabama 52. Los Angeles Rams – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson 53. Philadelphia Eagles – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU 54. Buffalo Bills – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU 55. Baltimore Ravens (from ATL) – KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State 56. Miami Dolphins (from NO) – Jonathan Greenard, Edge, Florida 57. Los Angeles Rams – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia 58. Minnesota Vikings – Antoine Winfield Jr., DS, Minnesota 59. Seattle Seahawks – Kyle Dugger, DS, Lenoir-Rhyne https://theathletic.com/1736730/2020/04/13/2020-mock-draft-5-0-all-seven-rounds-and-255-picks/ I don't mind OL in the 2nd, but Edge with us having Mack and Quinn on the roster? Seems like an odd pick with Higgins, Reagor, and Hamler as WRs still on the board and Safeties Winfield and Dugger. So with who is available at 43 and 50, who would you pick?

Good point, I need to prioritize the positions like that (miss on starter and don't need depth, so don't waste a pick on that position).

I tried to accept all trades and get as much as I could in each trade. I ended up getting a S, 2x CBs, a RB/WR Hybrid, TE, QB, WR, and 2x T's.

So the more this gets discussed, the more I think the Bears won't be able to trade down in this year's draft. With that, I did another run without trades and came up with the following. This would be a great draft IMO, we address a ton of need spots with players perfect for our system. What do you think?

Odd, I follow them too, but when I try to run a mock sim, the trade button says "Exclusive for Premium" and is greyed out.

I don't know if the values will be much different because everyone is going through the same situation. However, I think their reasoning for trades may be altered. On one hand, teams may be reluctant to trade based on everything you have said plus the potential for a reduced offseason schedule and potential impact to the season (reduced regular season, etc). Why trade up for a player, then get less out of him? On the other hand, teams may be more willing to trade away this year's picks for future picks believing the current season may be at risk. So it will definitely be an interesting draft, something we will more than likely never see again in our lifetime (hopefully). I could see a lot of project players dropping, no one can afford to have a new guy who is going to take some time to develop come in under less than ideal circumstances, so those guys will tumble.

The more and more I do these mocks, it is pretty clear that trading back is almost a requirement. We can't go 112 picks between picks in the 2nd and 5th rounds. Those are all in the meat of the draft. The problem is teams know this and are probably going to be less likely to trade up unless someone drops. However, I would take a later 2nd or early 3rd for 43 and/or 50 if it gives you at least a 4th.

My THE DRAFTNETWORK draft with no trades: 43 Austin Jackson, OT USC 50 K.J. Hamler, WR Penn State 163 Antoine Brooks Jr., S Maryland 196 Nevelle Clarke, CB UCF 200 Kendall Coleman, EDGE Syracuse 226 Calvin Throckmorton, OT Oregon 233 Rodrigo Blankenship, K Georgia

Yeah, I like the in depth info. The PFF one is limited but it seemed like the trades were more realistic as sometimes you get a trade and other times there is no interest, compared to having a trade available every pick. I don't have premium on the TDN site, so I couldn't do trades.

Lol yeah, I saw that this morning. There are a ton of memes on Twitter with that as well.

I ran this simulator multiple times and the sweet spot of the draft seemed to be between 70-120. I traded out of 43 to 71, but picked up a 4th and a 5th. There were no trades available at 50, so I went BPA with a Safety. I couldn't pass up Claypool at 71 and thought he would provide some matchup challenges for other teams, especially with Graham on the other side. I watched a ton of talent go off the board between 72 and 112, and then thought Gibson was the best choice to compliment Monty and can split out wide. Between Claypool as WR/TE and Gibson as RB/WR, would provide a ton of dual-threat options for Nagy. At 152, it was hard to pass on Montez as a QB to groom. I went BPA at 163 for a CB, then at 186 for Edge, and 196 for WR. I reached a little get Runyan at 200 because I knew he would not last to 233. Then at 233, I went with a Kicker to challenge Pineiro. Overall, I thought it was a solid draft with one trade to pick up a few extra picks.

So I tried another simulator, I think this one is a little more realistic with the trades than with others. Here is what I came up with. https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator

I hope the Bears can extend ARob and bring in Tony Jefferson at SS. That would fill another hole before going into the draft. That way you have more freedom to move down. If we have starter holes to fill, you almost have to stand pat and draft the guy if he is there at 43 or 50. Otherwise SS might be the #1 need on the team right now. If Ifedi is the answer at RG competing with Bars and Coward, then you don't really need to draft one early this year. However, if the team doesn't trust Massie/Leno, then a young OT could be a target early. They can challenge to start or end up as a swing tackle. If you have Burns and Toliver compete for CB2, then that is another hole filled. We have no depth at ILB, so that is a sneaky place I could see the team going early, same with OLB. There is a good chance that a LB is selected within the first two picks. Based on Quinn's deal, I could see them adding an Edge Rusher to backup Mack/Quinn and ultimately replace Quinn in a year or two. For ILB, the same thing, I could see them bringing in a guy to groom to replace Trevathan in a few filling in the void left by Kwit and KPL. For offensive skill positions, even though the team let Gabriel go, he was gone for a good chunk of the season and the team did fine without him. If they do anything, it will be to add speed. The biggest hole was TE, which Graham should fill. I think RB2 may now be the biggest hole on the offense, unless you consider Nall as RB2. So they may go RB early to compliment Monty. For TE, we have over 10 on the roster so I can't see them adding to that group, then having to cut it down to get to the 53-man roster. Here are the positions I think the Bears still may target at some point in the draft or UDFA (in no order): Starting positions: 1. SS1 - Bush 2. CB2 - Toliver/Burns 3. RG1 - Ifedi/Bars Key Backup/Rotational: 1. RB2 - Nall 2. OLB3 - Irving 3. ILB3 - Woods Need for upgrades: 1. Speedy WR - None 2. OT - Leno/Massie 3. DL - Anderson/Urban

1. Player(s) you'd love to see the Bears land. Jeremy Chinn, S; Antonio Gibson, WR/RB; I am expecting these guys to be available when the Bears pick. I would love for them to be able to get both of them as I see them both filling need areas. 2. Players(s) you do not want to see the Bears draft. Any small school players. I almost feel like Pace has Adam Trautman and Kyle Dugger as first round grades just so he can justify drafting them both in the 2nd. Also, I do not want to see the Bears draft a project in round 2. We need players that can contribute Day 1 and with a potentially short or limited offseason, we need players that are ready to go off the bus. 3. Player you are most wary/nervous of the Bears drafting. Any player with injury concerns or any player. I don't want the Bears reaching on anyone until the 6th. If they want to take a flyer then, fine, but not before then. 4. Should the Bears draft a QB? If so, when? Yes, just not in the 2nd unless someone falls. 5. Player you don't want to see drafted by another NFC North team. Chase Young, with our O-Line, we don't need any additional elite pass rushers in the North unless they are on the Bears. 6. Player you irrationally love. Antonio Gibson, his overall game intrigues me the most. I can see him as an instant replacement for Gabriel AND Cohen. He can split out wide with Monty in the backfield, or be perfectly fine coming out of the backfield. He would give Nagy a lot of options. 7. Early round bust. Jordan Love, QB. One of the early round QBs is going to fail. 8. Late round steal. Jon Runyan Jr. Mock drafts and sims have him going really late, 6th or 7th. He has NFL in his DNA, and I think he will be a starting G somewhere in the league. 9. Player who will go at least two rounds later than everyone thinks. One of the mid-round TEs, I can see all the TEs going later than expecting, setting off a cascade effect where guys originally expected to go in the late 2nd or 3rd fall a couple of rounds. 10. Player who will go at least two rounds earlier than everyone thinks. Chase Claypool, he has been moving up the draft boards quickly. I think someone with a huge gap between picks may reach for him early rather than miss him 2 rounds later.

So while drinking some coffee this morning, I ran the sim 10 times to pick 42 to see which players had the highest probability that they would be available at 43. Here are the 8 most likely players available at pick 43: Marlon Davidson, DE Auburn Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan Jacob Eason, QB Washington Lloyd Cushenberry, C LSU Cole Kmet, TE Notre Dame Noah Igbinoghene, CB Auburn Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah Julian Okwara, DE Notre Dame Now the interesting thing is we have pick 43 and 50, so technically we would be able to get 2 from this group. If you could pick any two, which two would you choose?

So it was definitely possible to get better trades, Lester was probably trying to just go quick. Here is one with trade downs from 43-51, and 50-61. So I used 43, 50 to get 56, 61, 93, and 141. I got 2x 2nds, a 3rd, and a 4th for the 2x 2nds. 56. Terrell Lewis OLB Alabama 61. Jeremy Chinn S Southern Illinois 93. Adam Trautman TE Dayton 141. K.J. Hill WR Ohio State 163. Antonio Gibson RB Memphis 196. Nevelle Clark CB UCF 200. Nick Harris C Washington 226. Rodney Clemons S SMU 233. Steven Montez QB Colorado

With trades: 54. Noah Igbinoghene CB Auburn 56. Lloyd Cushenberry C LSU 128. Anthony McFarland RB Maryland 141. Jake Fromm QB Georgia 163. Josiah Deguara TE Cincinnati 196. Nevelle Clark CB UCF 200. Broderick Washington Jr. DT Texas Tech 226. Jon Runyan Jr. G Michigan 233. Rodrigo Blankenship K Georgia It seems that Lester didn't really try too hard on the trades. I tried two (just to get a 4th in return) and instead of 43 and 50, I got 54, 56, 128, and 141. Still not the best value, but better than 6th's. I am going to see if I can get a 3rd in some of the trades.

Here is mine without trades: 43. K.J. Hamler WR Penn State 50. Lloyd Cushenberry C LSU 163. Josiah Deguara TE Cincinnati 196. Antoine Brooks Jr. S Maryland 200. James Robinson RB Illinois State 226. Juwan Johnson WR Oregon 233. Jon Runyan Jr. G Michigan I tried to stick to BPA as much as possible.

I really liked the concept of using the simulator, I just don't like the results, lol.

Here are the picks between 43-56. We had 43 and traded down to 48. We had 50 and traded down to 57. 43.Tee Higgins - Original Pick 44.Marlon Davidson 45.Jacob Eason 46.Lloyd Cushenberry 47.Cesar Ruiz 48.Isaiah Wilson BEARS 49.Zack Baun 50.Jaylon Johnson - Original Pick 51.Adam Trautman 52.Michael Pittman Jr. 53.Brandon Aiyuk 54.Julian Okwara 55.Joe Bachie 56.Cole Kmet 57.Laviska Shenault BEARS

Lloyd Cushenberry went at #46, I would rather have him at #43 than Wilson at 48 and a 6th. Wilson is still a project and you need a starter in the 2nd round. Jaylon Johnson went at #50, I would have taken him at #50 instead of Shenault at #57 and a 6th. Johnson is BPA and fills a need at CB.

Damn, going from 43 to 48 and only getting a 5th and then from 50 to 57 for a late 5th and 7th (which is basically worthless)? I like the idea of trading back, but not if we can only get a 5th in return. It will be interesting to see who got picked from 43-47 and from 50-56. Does anyone have a link to the draft results?

I can't believe we got him on that contract, that's impressive. I know he had a lot of penalties (mainly false starts), but some of that can be corrected. If he slides in at RG, a lot of those penalties go away.

I can't see Nagy getting fired, his track record is much better than Pace's. It's not his fault that he had to deal with Pace's first round failures. Pace has been saved by ARob, Hicks, Mack, and EJack. That's the elite core of the team right now holding it together. If the team loses anyone of those guys (like they did with Hicks), the season is over.

Also, the team is still non-committal on Mitch's 5th year option, which has to be decided on by May. If they wanted Mitch to succeed, they would've picked up the option already. The fact that they haven't means they are contemplating the risk vs reward in terms of comp picks. They picked up Floyd's option and got burnt (lost comp pick) and they may feel like the comp pick potential is greater than Mitch's ability to turn it around, which is a damning statement about how they truly feel about him. My opinion is this. Nagy took the job in hopes of making it work with Trubisky. After two seasons, he has realized that it's not going to work. He then tells Pace that he needs a new QB, and Pace brings in Foles. Pace is going to go down with the burning ship instead of just admitting his mistakes. It's ok to be wrong in this business, but when you continually make the same errors and then attempt to ride them out just to be right will end up getting you fired.