adam

I really like this board and definitely enjoy the different views. As long as we stay civil and don't have personal attacks, it's great. For me, Leno only starts at LT by default. If they don't bring in any real competition, then it's an easy decision for the team. A wild card is Bars. My preference is to move on from him now and cut your losses earlier than later.

I know, the dude is using real results though. I know it's not that easy, just saying the odds of picking a good one is much higher when drafting from that pool of players.

Good timing AZ:

Depends on his blocking, but that would make sense. It seems like the TE and WR are merging at that area.

I found this guy on Twitter who has compiled some data on college and combine numbers compared to NFL success. Very interesting. https://haydenwinks.com/project-tag/draft-research/ The QB data is here: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-qb The top 5 stats that correlated to NFL numbers were College Passing TD's to NFL TD's and Yds/g; College Passing Yards to TD/g and QB Rating, and College Yds/g to NFL TD/g. Now I know there are top college guys that don't do anything in the NFL, but the odds are that the top QB's will be from the top group of players with high passing yards and passing TD's in college. The odds of them having low numbers is extremely rare. If you use AV as your success measurement, the highest college stats that correlate to NFL success are College Passing TD's and College Passing Yards. The top QB's in passing yards in 2016.....Pat Mahomes, #3......Deshaun Watson. Passing TDs? Tied for 3rd....Mahomes and Watson. Also, if you only use the draft-eligible guys, they were the top two in both categories. Now it's not a one for one correlation, so guys like Mason Rudolph end up in there, but the likelihood of a guy out of the top group having success if extremely low. If you look at 2018, it's Haskins, Minshew, and Murray. Derek Carr was that guy in 2013. For this year, Burrow blows everyone out of the water. However, #2 is Anthony Gordon out of Washington State. If you use this concept, the chances of guys like Montez and Fromm to make it are low. Herbert and Love are also right at the cut line, sort of where Trubisky was at. So hell, I would go with Gordon as it seems like the likelihood of success is higher, as long as he has a good combine. The one interesting correlation for the combine was Ball Velocity had the highest correlation to NFL success. Also, hand size and height didn't correlate to NFL success. So if you have a guy with a lot of passing yards and TDs in college and had good velocity a the combine, they have the most chance at success in the NFL, though it's still less than 50%.

Just no one pull a A-Aron and sip the beer. Full Chicago Chug, down in one gulp.

I am just throwing names out. The reasoning was to have someone come in to push Trubisky but not necessarily surpass him. McCarron should be a cheaper option and better option than Daniel to do that. The jacket is on fire and needs a hat or cigar for sure, lol. The coolest part, he did all that in Unreal Engine.

We are looking much better now cap-wise, and if you only consider starters, we have 4 holes: at RG (Long), ILB (Trevathan), CB (Prince), and SS (HHCD). Not bad for that cap space. If you add TE to the list, that's 5, and then if you don't re-sign Floyd, that adds another for 6. However, cutting Shaheen/Braunecker and not keeping Floyd saves $16M-ish, so we would have over $42M for 6 starters in which at least two should be addressed in the draft, leaving 4 starters to address in FA.

Gabriel was at his peak, Miller still has a ton of potential. He is a little immature, but with a baby on the way, I think he will grow up quick.

Yep, here we go. As expected. Now let's see what they do with Floyd, Shaheen, and Braunecker.

Alaska, Absolutely on the jacket, and yes, it's a really cool program. I need to find out what he uses. I think Carr is the best option, but I don't know if he really is available. Going off what we know now, Dalton and Keenum seem like the most realistic options.

A pretty decent breakdown for QB options. I don't think Carr is #1. Dalton and Keenum make sense. If you are going to go with Rosen, then you might as well consider Driskel or McCarron. If you are going to go with a vet option like Rivers, then why not someone like Matt Moore on the cheap? He played well in KC filling in for Mahomes. Knows the system. Brady is silly, and Alex Smith will never play football again.

If anything, Gruden working a trade to get his 2nd rounder back. If that's all it takes to get Carr, you do it in a heartbeat. Carr would be worth more than any 2nd rounder. Now the trick will be the salary. LVR would have to retain some salary for it to work.

It could be nothing, but I would still expect to draft a TE.

I think if Bush could've been a starter, he would've already made that step up. So I still think we need to bring someone in to play SS. I can't see the team committing that much money to Floyd for that output. If he is too expensive, then they address that position in the draft. I would like to see RRH and Williams brought back for sure. We didn't get to see much of Williams with Hicks, that may be a dominant duo.

Could this be another Pace smoke screen? Sign a TE to then sign another like Hooper, Henry, or Ebron? He did it with Glennon and Trubisky.

Huge signing (according to Pace), this obviously addresses the need at TE. I don't expect another TE to be signed.

One year, $7M, $5.5M guaranteed. Too rich for us.

Bars is the wild card. If they believe in him and we don't need to bring in a starter at RG, that would be huge.

ILB will definitely be interesting. I will have to check, but I didn't see Trevathan listed as a top FA, so there is a chance to bring him in on the cheap if he is willing. I assume Kwit will command the most money.

My problem with Floyd is, even when healthy, he did not produce across from Mack. He was probably in the best position in the league outside of lining up across from Watt or Miller. So do we keep the status quo or try something else? If we are going to pay north of $10M, we need some production from that position.

Lol me. Burrow wasn't even highly ranked earlier in the year. What a season. He went from a mid round pick to the consensus #1 pick.

The more I look at these mock drafts, I definitely want Pace to trade down (if he can) for both picks in the 2nd unless someone falls to him. Otherwise, get as much as you can in draft capital and get a later 2nd with an extra pick in the 3rd. The challenge will be finding trade partners where the compensation works. For the #43, the only teams with a 2nd and a 3rd that would work would be SEA, BAL, and TEN. SEA - #59 (2nd), #100 (3rd Comp), #130 (4th), and a future 5th BAL - #60 (2nd), #92 (3rd), #136 (4th Comp) TEN - #61 (2nd), #128 (3rd), #174 (5th), and a future 5th For 2nd and 4th's for our #43, DEN, ATL, NYJ, and PIT would be in play. So it seems like 7 options. At #50, the trade options would be SEA, BAL, TEN, and KC, as well as BUF (for a 2nd and 4th) and HOU (2nd and 3rd Comp). So it looks like 6 options there. I would prefer getting a 2nd and 3rd for a 2nd, (which would allow Pace to trade down in the 3rd and get a 4th), but if he could trade down #43 for a 2nd and a 3rd (say with BAL): #43 for #60, #92, #136 and then trade #50 for #58 and #101 (w/HOU). That would give us: 2nd - #58 (from HOU), #60 (from BAL) 3rd - #92 (from BAL), #101 (from HOU) 4th - #136 (from BAL), #144 (Comp) 5th - #163 6th - #196 7th - #233 Those two trades would give the team 4 picks in the top 101 and 6 in the top 144. Not bad considering they would only have 3 going into the draft. There is a ton of value between the 3rd and 5th rounds this year.

Floyd - I doubt his agent lets him take less money. If the Bears don't keep him on for $13M, he will get it somewhere else. There might be some trade interest, and if you are the Bears, you take the trade now versus playing roulette with the comp picks. So keep for $13M (ugh), trade for 5th or 6th this year, cut and hope for comp pick next year. I would save the $13M. Amukamara - Gone, there is no way we can afford that with his production and a year older. Save $9M. Gabriel - We have a logjam at WR already with Wims and Ridley waiting in the wings. Miller played great once Gabriel went out. Easy cut. Save the $4.5M. Leno - If you make him a June 1 cut, you can spread the dead cap out over this and next year's cap, thus making him a cap savings of $6.7M. I would take the $6.7M and the gain by subtraction. I would add Shaheen and Braunecker to the list, that makes $34.8M in new cap space. You could easily add 4 immediate starters with that money (Fuller-CB, Bell-S, Vaitai-OT, Glasgow-OG). I replace Prince with Kendall Fuller, HHCD with Vonn Bell, Leno with Vaitai, and Glasgow at OG. Then I draft a TE and Edge early to fill those holes. The rest is used to address backup QB and depth. There are also a few players that can restructure to save additional space. So to me, cap space is not an issue as long as the Bears do something with Floyd, Prince, Leno, and Gabriel. Who are your favorite $10 Mil dollar free agents at LOT, OLB, CB and TE? I am thinking Vaitai at OT and Kendall Fuller at CB to fill those two starting positions. Then address Edge and TE in the draft. Who is your favorite mid 1st to mid 2nd round QB in the draft? I think we go with a QB later and bring in a vet like Keenum. Someone like Montez or Anthony Gordon in the 5th or 6th. I am intrigued more by Gordon.