adam

Another option would be to try KPL on the Edge and put this Braun kid in the middle with Smith. With so many sub packages nowadays, the LB's really have to be versatile, so Braun would fit that mold.

Yeah, I never thought about it, Cohen might have been the first read and Trubisky was baiting the defense into thinking he was going to one of the WR's. One odd part about it is none of the defenders are within 15 yards of Cohen. Even with him behind the LOS, if Trubisky did have another split second and Cohen gets out a little further, that is easily a 8-10 yard gain.

To be fair, that was the first game of the season. He seemed to improve as the season wore on. He also looked really good in the Senior Bowl against a lot of good players. Here is the thing, Floyd had 4.5 sacks in his last year of college (Junior), and had a total of 10.5 in his last two seasons. In comparison, Anae had 13.5 his last year, and 20.5 in his last two. If you look at TFL, Floyd had 8.5 in both of his last two seasons (total of 17), and Anae had 14 and 14 for 28. So the production is there. I have no idea why Floyd was a top 10 pick with those numbers. At least Anae has the production. Also we are looking for someone opposite of Mack in as early as the 2nd round. He was just one of the guys that should be there.

I never expect him to publicly state anything about the organization as it might tip his hand. I was thinking along the lines of the guys he let go. If he brings them back, it sort of shows that he shouldn't have gotten rid of them in the first place, thus a mistake on his part. Glennon was a huge mistake to begin with. He signed a one-year deal. If Pace cut him before the end of the season, he admits the mistake, if he stays on the roster all year, he doesn't. Same for Parkey. He was missing kicks in October, did we cut him and sign someone else during the season? Nope, no mistake admitted. We kept him until he broke the franchise and only after his media appearance did the team cut him. Not for his play, for those actions. Again, not admitting it was the wrong move. So his actions have been very consistent. He is going to ride guys out and won't bring others back that he probably should've never let go.

Ok, so Game 2, in Denver, here is a great play that seems like a microcosm of the season. The play ends up as an incompletion to Cohen. Denver only rushes 3, yet we have 6 in protection with Cohen chipping the end. To me the problem with the entire play is the play call and something I noticed all season. Nagy's plays are literally stupid. No one is schemed open, you can't have all the WR's run the same depth of route. This happened a ton during the season. No crossing pattern, nothing. You can't beat 8 guys in coverage (looks like Cover 3) if you literally run into the defensive coverage. That is exactly what all 4 WRs did. You beat the Cover-3 with short to intermediate out routes or crossing routes. The protection is pretty good, but Cohen actually chipped too hard and knocked the DE away from Leno, which gave him a clear path to the QB. Massie and Long do pretty good on the other side and Daniels and Whitehair do good up the middle. You really can't blame Leno here because the chip is what caused the problem. I also think that prevented Cohen from getting to his spot on time, thus the incompletion. What I hate about this play besides the play call itself, is Trubisky. He has tunnel vision on ARob until the last second. The WR at the bottom has the best chance as the defenders on his side both have their hips turned inside following the QB. If Mitch was actually surveying the field, he might've had a shot at a pass there between the numbers and sideline. However, he never looks that way. It would've been a tough throw, but that was the only possible one I could see against that defense with those routes. Again, what the hell Nagy? When I add some bubbles, you can see there is a window to throw the ball to the bottom and if Mitch could anticipate a little bit, he could've had a chance to drop it in between the 50 and 45 while throwing it when the WR was even with the defender. That's it though. No other place for the ball. The defense took away everything from 10-20 yds (see Cover 3). So where are the underneath routes that the longer routes cleared out? Why is Mitch completely locked in on his first read? So I blame Nagy on this one, then Mitch, then Cohen. Maybe an audible at the line or something. Outside of Nagy's trick plays that only work half the time, has he really been that good of a play caller? I don't think he gets enough of the blame. Even if Mitch surveyed the field, his best play may have been to tuck it and run to the right once the RDE got wide and deep. He would've picked up 5-7 yards easily before having to slide. Leno doesn't look that bad, but when he does it's a complete wet fart bad. That's his problem. It's average play followed by a penalty or complete whiff on a defender.

Yeah no worries, the defense felt a little light once I posted it but didn't even notice it lol.

Pace seems like a guy that won't admit mistakes. It's never his fault. So I doubt he brings anyone back.

It was a cut and paste error on the Excel Operator, it's fixed.

Yeah, the old cut and paste error. He was in my spreadsheet, but didn't make the cut

I would say a season for 2 QBs in the same system with relatively the same supporting cast is a pretty good comparison. I actually thought both QBs in the SB played average at best. Mahomes had two huge throws to wide open receivers that accounted for most of his yards. Outside of those two plays, he really didn't do too much. I just thought the stats were too similar to pass up the comparison. This is truly the year where we find out about Trubisky. There are literally no more excuses. If you count college and pro seasons, he will be in his 5th, in the system, his 3rd. We will know by the 3rd game if he is the problem.

I like Rivers, but he can't run the RPO, which Nagy refuses to abandon.

Smith is a true wild card. If healthy, and cheap, he would be a viable option that has history in the offense and with Nagy. Take a look at Smith's last full year with KC (2017) and Mahomes 2019. The comparison is uncanny actually. Mahomes 2019 > 319-484, 65.9%, 4031 yds, 26 TD, 5 INT, 105.3 QB Rating, 8.3 Y/A, 218 Rushing yds, 2 TD. Smith 2017 > 341-505, 67.5%, 4042 yds. 26 TD, 5 INT, 104.7 QB Rating, 8.0 Y/A, 355 Rushing yds, 1 TD. Can you tell they are in the same offense? How is Mahomes otherworldly if a game manager like Smith could put up identical numbers throwing to Hill and Kelce? If you like PFF, Smith had a 85.9 Grade in 2017 and Mahomes had a 90.2 with those stats. To me that's kind of funny since the stats were so close. This does not get enough attention really. Mahomes is Smith 2.0 with a little more flair. Ultimately, it makes me think that the Bears offense, O-Line, TEs, and play calls were more of the problem than Trubisky was in 2019. Trubisky still was a problem, but the other factors seemed to restrict what he could do.

So here is comparison #1. Look at how similar all these QBs really are: 1. Trubisky (26) 23-18 Record, 811-1280, 63.4%, 8554 yds, 48 TD, 29 INT, 6.7 Y/A, 85.8 QB Rating 2. Mariota (27) 29-32 Record, 1110-1765, 62.9%, 13207 yds, 76 TD, 44 INT, 7.5 Y/A, 89.6 QB Rating 3. Keenum (32) 27-35 Record, 1304-2091, 62.4%, 14368 yds, 75 TD, 47 INT, 6.9 Y/A, 85.3 QB Rating 4. Dalton (33) 70-61-2 Record, 2757-4449, 62.0%, 31594 yds, 204 TD, 118 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 87.5 QB Rating So do we want Mariota who has 6 more wins and 14 more losses than Mitch? The best thing he has going is a solid Y/A. Outside of that, are we really getting an upgrade? His best season was 26 TDs and 3426 yards. That would be career highs for Trubisky, but only a slight improvement. Since he and Trubisky share the same agent, this one is highly unlikely as that agent would be putting two eggs in one basket which would be counter to trying to maximize contracts for themselves. Next up, Keenum. I think he would be the cheapest option for bringing in competition. However, he is almost identical to Mariota with a worse Y/A. Keenum had a solid stretch with MIN and then the next year in DEN, where he threw for 3890 yards. The odd part was he only threw for 18 TDs? His career-high is 22 (less than Mitch). So this would be an acquisition to push Mitch and fill in better than Daniel if Mitch shits the bed or if Keenum looks better in TC, he gets the nod and Mitch watches from the sideline. Then we have Dalton. Definitely the most accomplished out of the group, with a solid record on a typically bad Bengals team. However, it just seems like he is where Mariota will be in 4 more years. He did have two 4k passing seasons and threw for over 30 TDs once, but looking at his overall career, that year seems like the outlier. In the two years he broke 4k in passing yards, his QBR was 55.1 and 50.8, basically, league average. His last solid year was 2016 (4 seasons ago), so who knows which player you would be getting. Can a guy at 33 who has never really been great change schemes like nothing? I don't know. For the QB situation, I think it would be good to bring in a solid vet to push Mitch and play better than Daniel if they need to start. Another wild card is Fitzpatrick. More on that later.

That's fair, I haven't looked too hard at them yet. Anae looked really good at Senior Bowl. I was just targeting TE and Edge early.

What do you think? Adding Hopkins and Anae in the 2nd Round: QB - Trubisky, Keenum RB - Montgomery, Cohen, Rookie or cheap vet RB WR - Robinson, Miller, Ridley, Wims, Rookie (Speed) TE - Hopkins, Burton, Holtz OL - Vaitai, Daniels, Whitehair, Glasgow, Massie DL - Hicks, Goldman, RRH, Williams LB - Mack, Smith, Kwit, KPL, Anae CB - Fuller, Fuller, Skrine, Tolliver S - Jackson, Bell We get upgraded at backup QB, TE, OL, Edge, CB, and Safety. Keenum over Daniel, Hopkins replaces Shaheen/Braunecker, Vaitai replaces Leno, Glasgow replaces Long. On defense, Anae replaces Floyd, Fuller replaces Prince, and Bell replaces HHCD. We bring back KPL and Kwit for ILB. Then fill out the rest of the depth slots.

Here is the current list of top 100 FA's for 2020 from The Athletic. I excluded the top 30 due to the expected salaries and/or projected tags. This is the remaining list. If you could pick 4 guys off this list to target, who would they be? After reading some articles about FA TE failures, I am avoiding TE in FA. I selected Fuller's brother at CB, Vonn Bell to play SS, Vaitai to replace Leno, and Glasgow at G. All are young enough to play out a full contract. I also re-signed Kwit (not counting that as a target). Then in the draft, the team can address TE, Edge, speed at WR, and depth. Top 1-30 Excluded: 31. Chris Harris Jr., CB, Broncos (31) 32. D.J. Humphries, OT, Cardinals (26) 33. Devin McCourty, S, Patriots (33) 34. Trae Waynes, CB, Vikings (28) 35. Bradley Roby, CB, Texans (28) 36. D.J. Reader, DT, Texans (26) 37. Jason Pierre-Paul, EDGE, Buccaneers (31) 38. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Saints (27) 39. Robert Quinn, EDGE, Cowboys (30) 40. Joe Schobert, LB, Browns (26) 41. Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers (25) 42. Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons (25) 43. Andrus Peat, OG, Saints (26) 44. Jarran Reed, DT, Seahawks (27) 45. Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans (26) 46. Kendall Fuller, CB, Chiefs (25) 47. Germain Ifedi, RT, Seahawks (26) 48. Blake Martinez, LB, Packers (26) 49. Leonard Williams, DT, Giants (26) 50. Eli Apple, CB, Saints (25) 51. Logan Ryan, CB, Titans (29) 52. Breshad Perriman, WR, Buccaneers (27) 53. Jimmie Ward, S, 49ers (29) 54. Vonn Bell, S, Saints (25) 55. Maliek Collins, DT, Cowboys (25) 56. Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OT, Eagles (27) 57. Danny Shelton, DT, Patriots (27) 58. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Bucccaneers (33) 59. Graham Glasgow, G/C, Lions (28) 60. Eric Ebron, TE, Colts (27) 61. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers (27) 62. Ronald Darby, CB, Eagles (26) 63. Bashaud Breeland, CB, Chiefs (28) 64. Jordan Phillips, DT, Bills (27) 65. Mackensie Alexander, CB, Vikings (26) 66. Shelby Harris, DT, Broncos (29) 67. Vic Beasley, EDGE, Falcons (28) 68. Shaq Lawson, DE, Bills (26) 69. Markus Golden, EDGE, Giants (29) 70. Mario Addison, EDGE, Panthers (33) 71. Jamie Collins, LB, Patriots (30) 72. Kyle Van Noy, LB/EDGE, Patriots (29) 73. A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Lions (25) 74. Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals (26) 75. Rodney McLeod, S, Eagles (30) 76. Jimmy Smith, CB, Ravens (32) 77. Carl Nassib, EDGE, Buccaneers (27) 78. De’Vondre Campbell, LB, Falcons (27) 79. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Bears (27) 80. Gerald McCoy, DT, Panthers (32) 81. Derek Wolfe, DT, Broncos (30) 82. Karl Joseph, S, Raiders (27) 83. Jason Peters, LT, Eagles (38) 84. Andrew Whitworth, LT, Rams (38) 85. Damarious Randall, S, Browns (28) 86. Michael Brockers, DT, Rams (29) 87. Nick Kwiatkoski, LB, Bears (27) 88. Kevin Johnson, CB, Bills (28) 89. Brian Poole, CB, Jets (27) 90. Randall Cobb, WR, Cowboys (30) 91. Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles (27) 92. Devin Funchess, WR, Colts (26) 93. Demarcus Robinson, WR, Chiefs (26) 94. Connor McGovern, G/C, Broncos (27) 95. Jalen Mills, CB, Eagles (26) 96. Tre Boston, S, Panthers (28) 97. Kamalei Correa, EDGE, Titans (26) 98. Quinton Jefferson, DT, Seahawks (27) 99. Michael Pierce, DT, Ravens (27) 100. Daryl Williams, OT, Panthers (28)

That is totally fake. The Bears would have a bigger gap hit by trading him than just keeping him. He is untradeable thru 2021 due to dead cap.

I would say he was average with the blocks he made, but if you add all the penalties and the missed assignments, that puts him the bottom third of the league.

If you cut Floyd (No Dead Money), Gabriel ($2M), Leno as a June-1 cut ($3.7M), and Prince ($1M), that would save $23.1M with $6.7M in dead money. Cohen is another candidate, he would save $2.1M with only 158K dead money. Shaheen should be cut, which would save $1.2M with 600K in dead money. There is also some restructuring that can be done with the core guys (Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Goldman, and Whitehair) that can free up cap space this year, if needed. So I don't think we are as bad off as some think. Losing Long saved a chunk of cap as well.

I watched a few games on Game Pass and besides Floyd looking overmatched on every play, Mack didn't seem to have the same explosion like he did last year. He was a Tazmanian Devil in 2018, but in 2019, it looked like he lost a step and wasn't as powerful. I know the defense for his regression was these double and triple teams. However, even when he had one on one matchups, even against a rookie, he didn't really do anything special. My fear with some of these guys is once they get a payday, they cruise. It really looks that way with guys like Leno, Massie, and Mack. Fuller seems like the only one who has consistently played to his contract, except for the fact that he played 10 yards of the WR every snap. So we will see what EJack does. Looking at Mack's contract, we got him thru age 33, and he is in his prime right now going into 2020 at age 29. This should be his year. Hopefully, he gets back to form because we really need him to be dominant regardless of the other players around him, that's what he is getting paid for.

I am going to post some info in here to discuss the QB situation. First I was looking back at some past League MVPs, and one season popped out at me. Take a look at this recent league MVP and two similar Pro Bowl QBs from different years: League MVP: 1. 67.0 QBR, 59.8% Comp, 239 Y/G, 7.8 Y/A, 39.8 Rushing Yards/G Pro Bowlers: 2. 65.0 QBR, 62.6% Comp, 252 Y/G, 8.1 Y/A, 56.3 Rushing Yards/G 3. 70.8 QBR, 66.6% Comp, 230 Y/G, 7.3 Y/A, 30.1 Rushing Yards/G #3 was Trubisky in 2018, and he had a better overall QBR than Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season and Michael Vick's 2010 with the Eagles. They were the closest comps in multiple statistical categories and all three made the playoffs. The biggest outliers were TDs. Next post is going to be all the available QBs and some of their numbers.

I don't even know if he is worth that but it reasonable. To me, especially with Mack's cap hit, it might be too much for that output. Looking at other 3-4 OLB deals, anything between $7.7M-11.4M would be a top 10 contract for 3-4 OLBs. The 9th highest is $11.5M and the 10th is currently at $7.6M. Floyd is not a top 10 3-4 OLB. If you add 4-3 DEs into the mix, as a group, the top 23 make over $10M, #24 makes $9M (Ansah). I think a good comp to Floyd is Clelin Ferrell (LVR), he is 28th in Edge and just signed a new deal with his current cap hit at $7.8M a year. I would not pay more than $8M a year to Floyd. If Floyd is the #2 Edge player on the team, he should be somewhere in the 30's for Edge salaries as every other team should have their top Edge player making more than him. Also, with our needs elsewhere, we might not be able to commit over $30M a year to 2x Edge players with Mack's cap hit.

I don't know if it would work the same way during the draft. Like what freedom does he have to trade picks and who needs to approve? It seems like he has had a lot of freedom to trade up, which would be the same thing here. I think free agency will be telling.

One crazy thought on Pace. What if, with his back against the wall, he says screw it and tries to make one last hail mary move to save his job? I could see him trading away future picks to do that. If he guesses right, the future picks won't matter as much. If it doesn't work, he doesn't have to deal with the loss of picks anyway.

and how do they grade that? He lets the first guy run free but then makes a nice block on the 2nd guy as the first guy pancakes Trubisky. He gets a good grade for his block.