adam

For Leno, it's easy, he got paid, got married, and had a baby. Most non-elite players drop off after a pay day, a good amount never recover. Leno's penalties were also directly related to his conditioning. I think he knew he was not as fast or as strong, so he would jump and false start against a speedy Edge guy or hold the stronger one. His penalties in terms of % of team penalties was 4th worst in the NFL, that is insane. Tunsil and Bolles were two of the three worse than him and they were flat out terrible players. I don't like PFF, but O-Line seems like one of the easier positions to grade (in relative terms), and his PFF grade dropped from mid-70's to mid-50's from 18 to 19. Mid-50's is replacement level and below a backup: The Player Grading Scale: 100-90 Elite 89-85 Pro Bowler 84-70 Starter 69-60 Backup 59-0 Replaceable I am going to go thru the entire season over the next month and grade out the entire O-Line myself. I watched the first quarter of the Packers game and already saw a few bad plays from Leno. To me one of the biggest issues was he gave up on his blocks too quick, then didn't attempt to block anyone else or run with the play. It's easy to see where some would call him lazy from that type of display. Hopefully Castillo will get more out of him, but with a new sheriff in town, he will be riding the pine if he continues playing like that. Another weird twist during the season was with Leno's wife defending his play. I thought that was interesting.

Yeah, I feel like you can only hope to expect a starter in the first 4 rounds. Getting one in the 5th or beyond is rare and not something you should plan for. With that, the Bears only have 3 picks in the first 4 rounds, so trading down in the 2nd to pick a 3rd up makes too much sense. Then you can potentially fill 4 need positions. For me those would be TE, OL, Edge, and S. Fill the rest via free agency. If you do address one of those 4 in free agency, then go after the speedy WR, CB, or QB in the draft.

It's funny how much of a different assessment can be made on the same player, here Robert Schmitz breaks down Leno and says he is perfectly average. Then there are articles about how he sucked: https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/chicago-bears-offensive-line-needs-include-tackle. So what gives. How can so many people come up with different opinions on the same player. To me, it was clear that Leno was part of the problem last year. I will have to track down the totals, but I know he allowed a lot of hurries and hits, and had a ton of penalties.

Adam Hoge's Mock Draft 1.0: 2nd Round, No. 11 (No. 43 overall via Raiders) — TE Harrison Bryant, Florida Atlantic (6-4 3/4, 242) 2nd Round, No. 18 (No. 50 overall) — EDGE Bradlee Anae, Utah (6-3 3/8, 257) 4th Round, No. 41 (projected comp pick) — OG Damien Lewis, LSU (6-2, 329) 5th Round, No. 17 — CB Dane Jackson, Pittsburgh (5-11 5/8, 180) 6th Round, No. 17 — RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis (6-0 1/2, 223) 6th Round, No. 21 (via Eagles) — WR Binjimen Victor, Ohio State (6-4, 199) 7th Round, No. 12 (via Raiders) — QB Stephen Montez, Colorado (6-4, 240) 7th Round, No. 19 — OL Calvin Throckmorton, Oregon (6-4, 7/8, 310) https://wgnradio.com/2020/02/04/hoge-2020-bears-mock-draft-1-0/ This would be a solid draft. I would like to have a Safety, especially with EJack getting a big contract (hard to pay 2x at one position), but other than that, it looks good.

Yeah that is the worst thing a team can do, pay a terrible player AND keep him on the team. At least cut your losses and let someone else step up. At worst you are no better off than you were before.

Yeah I agree. On another note, I saw some post game breakdowns the last few days saying that on one of Mahomes INT's that he was intentionally throwing behind Hill "to protect" him. It's amazing how they come up with instant excuses for his mistakes. Definitely on Floyd, we can't afford to have his weak pass rush on the opposite side of Mack. We need them to at least honor the other side, not completely abandon it. Out of all the outcomes, I am fine with Reid getting one. Now doesn't get any more.

So we can finally start looking hard at the offseason. 1. February 24th - March 2nd - NFL Combine: we should have a good idea how the players will be slotted after the combine and some pro days. Mock drafts on fire. 2. March 16th - Legal tampering period: We will see a flurry of activity starting around this date as players start locking in deals with teams, will the Bears sign a QB? Is Mike Glennon available? 3. March 18th - The official first day of the league year and the official Start to Free Agency. All the official announcements start on the first wave of free agent signings; teams have to exercise options by 4pm. 4. March 29th - April 1st - Annual League Meeting 5. April 1st - April 22nd - The second wave of Free Agency, this normally starts in early to mid-April as players start to get desperate and want to get on a team before the draft. 6. April 16th - My guess on when they will release the 2020 schedule like they did last year. It will be nice to know when we have our opponents and when we get our bye. 7. April 20th - Offseason Workout Programs begin 8. April 23rd - 25th - NFL Draft, We will see what Pace has up his sleeve with the 2x 2nd rounders. My belief is he keeps one and trades down with the other. Will he draft a QB? 9. UDFA signings: April 25th-27th (UDFAs start to get linked to teams a few days after the draft. This is starting to become an important part of team building) 10. Teams can sign XFL players: April 27th (This will be an interesting twist to the offseason) 11. April 27th - May 31st - Post-draft Free Agency: (This is the 3rd wave of free agency as players and teams start to get linked before 12. May 1st-4th/8th-11th - First Rookie Minicamp 13. May 4th - Deadline for clubs to exercise Fifth-Year options (Trubisky) 14. May 19th - 20th: Spring League Meeting 15. June 1st - Deadline for June 1st cuts 16. June 1st - August 11th - Last wave of free agency after June 1st cuts 17. Mid-July - Training Camp 18. August 13th-17th - First Preseason Game, the first game for Nagy to hold out all starters 19. September 5th - Rosters reduced to 53. 20. September 6th - Players claimed off waivers and teams establish their 10-man Practice Squads. 21. September 10th - The regular season begins with the Bears quest to go 19-0! GO BEARS!

Key takeaways, don't neuter the offense because you are scared of mistakes. Mahomes threw 2 INTs that resulted in opponent scores (10 pts), yet they still allowed him to take shots down the field. He had three relatively deep passes, and only one was a dime. The other two were "throw them up to an area" throws that the receiver had to adjust to make the catch. He did nothing that Mitch can't do. It's crazy really. Mitch just needs to recognize what to do better on the RPO and option plays and connect on a few deep passes per game. The key to both defenses was getting there with 4 rushers. Also, I saw a lot of single-high safety looks most of the game. That is where Eddie thrives. Jimmy G choked, Shanahan choked (again), and Sherman got burnt like Michael in the Pepsi commercial. The team had zero faith in Jimmy G, and you could feel it. He was inaccurate (missed an easy deep ball to Sanders) and his picks were ugly. It's crazy to think that the Chiefs won their last 3 playoff games after trailing by 10 or more points. Every team had them on the ropes and then went into prevent mode (which is where KC destroys babies). You would think that after HOU, that TEN would've made the adjustment, then after TEN that SF would've just kept doing what they were doing for 3 quarters to put the game away, but instead they got passive. They let over a minute run down before half with 3 timeouts to ultimately run out of time to score after a 1st down because they had no confidence in Jimmy G. With the running game not working as well as it did in the previous games, they had no choice but to let Jimmy G throw the ball and they lost because of it. The SF vaunted defense went into prevent mode, and when their best corner had to play man to man, he got beat badly. Game over. I really don't think we are far off. We need to move on from Floyd, use any cap space he was using and go get a true compliment to Mack on the other side. We need a strong pass rush. Kittle and Kelce really didn't do too much in the biggest game of the year, so either the other teams took them away or TE is not as valuable as I thought. One interesting note, Damien Williams ended up with 100 yards rushing. So it seems KC flipped the script a little bit on SF and it worked. Mahomes ended up with a 78.1 QB Rating as the MVP, that's impressive. Hopefully this will be the last mention of Pace passing up Mahomes for Trubisky. He won the league MVP last year, and the SB and SB MVP this year. There is nothing more he can do to validate that Pace made the wrong choice. I don't know if there has been another draft pick scrutinized more since Ryan Leaf (who the Chargers traded up for one pick and gave up a future 1st round pick a 2nd round pick and Eric Metcalf).

OMG no, absolutely picking Mahomes or Watson. However, Mahomes still ended the game with only a 78.1 QB Rating. SF completely crapped the bed, just like Shanahan did with Atlanta. He coaches scared and loses. They made Jimmy G play QB and SF got owned. Jimmy G ends with a 69.2 QB Rating, Grossman-esque. I was not impressed with either QB. Mahomes only hit wide-open receivers.

One quarter left. SF 20-10. KC with the ball at their 46. Mahomes threw a terrible INT on the last drive that resulted in a SF TD. If that was Trubisky, they would be talking about it every play. His QB Rating is 62.9, with 5.8 Y/A.

Mahomes only has 2x 300 yard passing games in his last 8. In those 8 games, he had 4 with a QB Rating under 84.0 (Trubisky had a 83.0 QB Rating on the season). So in 4 games he played like Trubisky and in 4 games he played like Drew Brees. So it will ultimately come down to which Mahomes shows up or what Mahomes SF creates. Should be a good one.

Yeah, I am sticking with my prediction, SF 23-20. SF slows the game down and takes the ball out of Mahomes' hands for most of the game.

That's not starter money. Just a depth/developmental piece.

So Brady and Olsen?

In terms of luck, Mahomes throws up a lot of deep balls that his receivers make ridiculous catches on. He seems to also get the benefit of the doubt on a lot of missed holding calls, similar to Rodgers. For production of skill players, Kelce and Hill are still All-Pros outside of KC and Mahomes. If you need a comparison, just look at what Matt Moore did when Mahomes was out, his comp% was within a point, his QB Rating was 100.9 to Mahomes 105.3 and he had 4 TDs to 0 INTs, a better ratio than Mahomes did. Mahomes only had 26 TDs this year, compared to 50 in 2018. They get a lot of explosive pass plays, which pads the numbers a lot. In comparison the Bears were the worst team in explosive plays in 2019: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/explosive-play-rankings--off-.html To me this was our biggest weakness, with the run or the pass, we were 31st in explosive runs and explosive passes. Interestingly enough, SF is 2nd in the league in explosive plays they were #1 in explosive passes and 7th in runs. Baltimore led the league and Tennessee was 3rd, followed by Dallas and Seattle. Dallas was the only non-playoff team. That is what we were missing. I don't think they were intentionally hiding Jimmy G, I just think that Shanahan is a great coach and has a feel for the game. There was no need to pass when they couldn't stop the run. It burns more clock and there is less chance of a turnover. If SF can limit the explosive plays, KC's offense shuts down. They live off of those. Based on what SF has done to most teams this year and with the extra week of rest (defenders seem to need more), I think they win. Now if they let up a few big plays, especially ones that go the distance, I could see KC winning. To me that's the game (SF wins if they limit big plays, KC wins if they get 2-3 big plays).

Another option for the QB/TE duo is Newton/Olsen. Cam is only 30, while Olsen should have a good year or two left at 35. With all the madness going on in Carolina, who knows if Cam will be there in 2020. What do you think? Cam would add some character to the locker room and Olsen can retire as a Bear.

I don't mind SF winning as they are less related to the Bears than KC is. It would be a plus to see Gould kick a GW FG in the SB, he deserves it. Lynch picked Solomon Thomas at #3 and also passed on Mahomes and Watson, then even traded away the pick that the Saints used on Kamara, so that storyline is fairly weak. Mostert is on his 7th team at 27 yrs old. That is the Shanahan zone blocking scheme at work that has produced a ton of 1,000 yard backs. I could care less about Mostert. Now for KC, I don't want them to win. Hill should not even be playing in the league, and Mahomes is as lucky as he is good. Eventually, that will catch up with him. I do not want to see Mahomes win a SB. If he doesn't get one before his rookie contract ends, he may never get one. It looks like he is set to make $40M a year, which would be insane but justified. However, you have to take away 3-4 high end starters off the team to make that fit in the cap. So if they can win like that fine, but I don't want to see them win when he is under his rookie deal. Reid is a good coach, but it helps having good players. It's not like he is getting to Super Bowls with duds. Also, SF will more than likely win with rushing and defense (the way it should be). That would be cool to see that win out over KC's out score you mode, even though the high scoring games are exciting, it does get a little old when teams just go down and score every drive without any defensive resistance. Lastly, wouldn't it be awesome if Mahomes completely blew it in the Super Bowl? I doubt it happens, but that would be the best storyline. Mahomes chokes and hands SF the SB on a Gould GW, SF 23-20.

It will be curious to see the type of contract he gets. That will determine how the team views him (as a starter = goodbye Prince, or as a backup). Apparently he was on the Vikings Practice Squad before going to the CFL. Overall, I like the move, just as long as we didn't overpay.

I can picture this, too funny. Your dedication is admirable.

Mongo, My thought process on the speedy receiver is that you won't have time to hit him deep if you don't fix the OLine. Also, Trubisky's deep ball accuracy is questionable, so would that WR even get that many chances? That is why I was leaning TE early. We had the lowest production from our TE's in the entire league. Our leading TE had 14 receptions on the year, the leading yardage was 91, and the group totaled 2 TDs. They were historically bad. Over anything else, one characteristic of both teams in the SB are their elite TEs (Kittle and Kelce). For me, if you had two equally rated players in the 2nd round, one a speedy WR and another a TE, I would go for the TE. Now, I am all for getting one in the draft, just not in the 2nd round.

Here is one from Walter Football: 43. Chicago Bears: Terrell Lewis, DE/OLB, Alabama The Bears need some edge-rushing depth, especially considering that Leonard Floyd will be entering free agency soon. Terrell Lewis was once a staple of my 2019 NFL Mock Draft, but he returned to school after an injury-plagued 2018 campaign. 50. Chicago Bears: Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU The Bears could add another receiver to start across from Allen Robinson. Jalen Reagor is a blazing-fast receiver who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball. So Edge and WR? Lewis was ranked #49 in Jeremiah's top 50, and Reagor was not listed. I understand the thought process, but we seem to have bigger holes to fill than Edge and WR. To me, TE and OL, and even SS seem higher.

If you get silly with trades, there is endless fun. Your score is: 38184 (GRADE: A-) Your Picks: Round 2 Pick 24 (MIA): Brycen Hopkins, TE, Purdue (A-) Round 3 Pick 1 (CINN): Darryl Williams, C/OG, Mississippi State (A) Round 3 Pick 8 (ARI): Anthony Gordon, QB, Washington State (A-) Round 3 Pick 12 (T.B.): Antoine Winfield Jr., FS/SS, Minnesota (A-) Round 4 Pick 1 (CINN): Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon (A+) Round 4 Pick 8 (ARI): Lloyd Cushenberry III, C, LSU (A+) Round 4 Pick 41 (COMP): Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty (A+) Round 4 Pick 43 (PHI): Ben Bartch, OT, St. John's (A+) Round 5 Pick 13: DeMarkus Acy, CB, Missouri (A+) Round 5 Pick 19 (JAX): KJ Hill, WR, Ohio State (A+) Round 6 Pick 10 (JAX): Harrison Bryant, TE, Florida Atlantic (A+) Round 6 Pick 17: Jeffrey McCulloch, OLB, Texas (A+) Round 6 Pick 21: Corey Bethley, DT, TCU (A+) Round 6 Pick 27 (JAX): AJ Green, CB, Oklahoma State (A+) Round 7 Pick 19: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor (A+)

I did another, focusing on OT early, no trades: Your score is: 34297 (GRADE: B+) Your Picks: Round 2 Pick 11: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville (A) Round 2 Pick 18: Brycen Hopkins, TE, Purdue (B+) Round 4 Pick 41 (COMP): Jon Runyan, OG, Michigan (A+) Round 5 Pick 13: Jordan Fuller, FS/SS, Ohio State (A+) Round 5 Pick 17: Jeffrey McCulloch, OLB, Texas (A+) Round 6 Pick 17: Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland (A+) Round 6 Pick 21: Evan Weaver, ILB, California (A+) Round 7 Pick 19: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor (A+) I addressed OT, OG, TE on offense, with some depth picks at RB and WR. On defense, I addressed SS, OLB, and depth at ILB. My assumptions were that the Bears re-signed both KPL and Kwit for ILB, so we only need one there. I just didn't have a chance to pick up a CB of value with the way the draft played out.

There are a bunch of bloodline picks in this draft.

Yeah, it was weird, I was trying to get one early, but based on their ratings, there was not one to justify selecting when my pick was up. Every pick was BPA, but I was at least trying to get it in a need area. The DTs were the only ones true BPA as they were rated way higher than the pick, same with Mims at the end. Mims and Wims for the wins!