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adam

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Everything posted by adam

  1. One name to watch is Mike Kafka, KC QB Coach. He played HS ball at St. Rita and college ball at Northwestern, and obviously has ties to Nagy in KC.
  2. I would be all in on cutting Leno. If you can bring in a league average guy, we magically improve.
  3. Pace is not going to show his hand. The minute he shows doubts in Trubisky, every free agent QB will have the leverage. If you watched the press conference, Nagy is much worse at dead panning than Pace. Nagy was curling his lips, biting his lips and was visibly uncomfortable when Trubisky questions were being asked or when Pace was answering them. All the offensive staff firings were pretty clear the direction the team is going in. I am good with bringing in someone to compete with Trubisky. Let the best QB win.
  4. The only thing I can think of is they are running where they are told to run regardless of what the blocker is doing. I know that is crazy, but they have done it so many times, it has to be coaching.
  5. The league season is not over, so they are still OAK to me. I am sure there is a possibility of Carr leaving OAK, but it would only be via trade. He has a $21.5M cap hit next year, so that would be tough for us to take on such a large contract. If we could, the dead money in 2021 is only $2.5M, so we could cut sling after one year if it didn't work out. I have no idea the trade value, but since we worked with OAK in the past, maybe we could work something out. I don't think it would be for Mack though, more than likely a draft pick.
  6. Connor, It is a huge black hole. If you look at all the really elite teams, they all have stud TEs (Kelce, Andrews, Kittle, etc). For defenses, it allows the coverage to shift to other areas, essentially taking away what the Bears were doing. We need to either sign one via FA (Hooper or Ebron), or draft one within the first 4 rounds.
  7. Burrow is already a Bengal. He grew up in SE Ohio with the closest state team being the Bengals and he also played at Ohio State before LSU. Burrow and Young are locked in at 1/2. That is a given. Cincinnati gets the next Andrew Luck and the Redskins get the next Lawrence Taylor. Just looking at the draft, the Bears are going to be competing with CIN, MIA, LAC, CAR, DEN, and maybe TB and IND for a QB. That's 8 teams with most have two picks before the Bears have one. The only QBs that might be available for the Bears in the 2nd are Eason and Montez. 1. CIN - Yes (draft Burrow) 2. WAS - No 3. DET - No 4. NYG - No 5. MIA - Yes (draft someone here) 6. LAC - Yes (draft someone here) 7. CAR - Maybe (is Cam back or do they draft someone here?) - I doubt the 3rd QB gets past this pick. 8. ARZ - No 9. JAX - No 10. CLE - No 11. NYJ - No 12. OAK - No 13. IND - Maybe 14. TB - Maybe 15. DEN - Yes (Do they go with Lcck, hopefully they do) 16. ATL - No 17. DAL - No (assuming Prescott) 18. MIA - Yes (via PIT) 19. OAK - No (via CHI) 20. JAX - No (via LAR) 21. PHI - No 22. TEN - Maybe (do they re-sign Tannehill) 23. BUF - No 24. MIN - No 25. HOU - No 26. SEA - No 27. NE - Maybe (Brady's replacement?) 28. GB - No 29. NO - Maybe (do they draft Brees' replacement?) 30. KC - No 31. SF - No 32. BAL - No
  8. Based on the cap space, pending free agents and projected draft picks, this is what the team has to do in the offseason (based on starters only): These are the 6 positions based on free agents or health that absolutely need a new starter in 2020: RG, TE, Edge, ILB, CB, S, if you add performance, you would have to add LT, RT, LG, and DE in there. 1. O-Line, RG is a hole and LT needs to be addressed in some way. Due to contracts we are stuck with Leno, Daniel, and Massie to go with Whitehair. The Coward project didn't work, and Lucas looked horrible. You take a look at Bars, draft someone early to start Day 1, and bring in a vet to compete somewhere in the starting 5. If that means Leno or Massie move to rotational OT, so be it. Need 2. This one will be tough, because any above average OLineman normally signs for an inflated price because they are so hard to find. I think we draft a tackle and bring in a veteran FA at RG. 2. TE, even with Burton under contract, you cannot count on him due to soft tissue (between the legs) injuries. Shaheen is easily cut as he never evolved into anything more than an unathletic Lurch. Horsted and Holtz are good for depth, but not starting caliber TEs. This has to be addressed in FA or in the draft. Need 1. The good news is there are a lot of productive FA options this year, which should make for a decent market. Hooper, Henry, Eifert, and Ebron will all be UFAs. I think we go after one of the free agents as TE is such a huge part of Nagy's offense. 3. ILB, Trevathan is a UFA. The team needs to decide which of the 3 (Trevathan, Kwit, or KPL) are kept. Based on age and health, I would lean towards Kwit or KPL or both. Either way, we need 1. If we look outside of the organization in FA, these are some of the names under 30: Martinez, Littleton, Schobert, Bostic (haha), Hewitt, and Mayo. I think we sign both Kwit and KPL. 4. Edge. Floyd cannot be back in a Bears uniform. If he is, I will be pissed. He has been the least productive defender on the field for most of his time with the Bears. We need a compliment to Mack. KPL is definitely under consideration here due to his speed. I would at least consider it, but we would still need depth here. So I would still say this needs to be addressed. Need 1. The market has a ton of guys available, which should make it easier to part ways with Floyd. They will definitely bring someone in here as I can imagine Lynch is also gone. 5. CB. The Bears CBs were bad this year. Ironically corresponding with the lack of a pass rush. However, playing off 10-15 yards on a 3rd and 7 seems like an easy play for any NFL team. So I don't know why Fuller and Co. played like that most of the year. I believe I saw a stat where Fuller led the league in receiving yards against. That is crazy for a top 10 paid CB. Amukamara is clearly done and an easy cap cut. With Skrine locked into a bad contract, we will only have one hole to fill in 2020. If the team believes in Tolliver, they may go that route, but I still think they either draft or bring one in via FA. Need 1. There are a ton of names available in free agency, so we should be able to bring in at least a mid-level guy to compete with Tolliver. The Bears will bring in a FA and draft one early. 6. Safety. HHCD is a free agent, and the more he played with Jackson, the more you saw they were not complementary players. They are too similar which basically negated both of their strengths, or so it seemed. Too many missed tackles for me. We need a new SS. Need 1. Minnesota seems to have a stockpile of good safeties and they can re-sign them all. Depending on what they do at CB might determine what they do here. I am thinking they need to bring in a veteran here. 7. QB - I am putting this on here as another need, but not knowing which direction the team is going to go. QB Options: 1. Younger Change of Scenery option: Mariota - similar style, coaches familiar with him, would be an interesting QB competition. Knowing this option, they would both be bad. 2. Consistent Vet option: Keenum - has played decent wherever he has went, never sticks for some reason though, which would be the concern 3. Vet with no experience option: McCarron - played in some big games in college, limited physically, more of a game manager, would be cheaper option with little risk 4. Older Vet option: Matt Moore, comes from same system, had success recently, not much tread left on the tires. 5. Break the bank Vet: Bridgewater or Tannehill. These guys will command some big contracts and may be out of the Bears price range. I think they go with someone like Keenum who can compete for the starting job but won't break the bank if he is the backup.
  9. Connor, Good point, if you look at it that way, out 13 starters and 9 backups should've beat their 22 backups. I assume most of our vets were just trying to not get injured.
  10. I assume the team addresses O-Line, TE, or Edge in their first two picks.
  11. Most have Tua still going in the top half of the 1st. So I doubt he is there in the late part of the round, but if he is, there is a chance the team could move up using the Raiders pick and a future 2nd or 3rd Rounder. So they would essentially be giving up 2x 2nd rounders for a late first rounder, which seems fair.
  12. adam

    QB DVOA Rankings

    It's brutal, even ARob, who most believed was a Pro Bowler was not even a top 32 WR. Burton's was laughable, dead last. It's funny because Trubisky was the lone bright spot in the DVOA rankings and he was 28th.
  13. The O-Line is a huge problem. Leno also completely whiffed on a few edge guys who literally ran right around him. I believe he was the guilty party on the strip sack too. The two guys I want gone for next season at a minimum are Leno and Floyd. Just replace those two guys with league-average players and we are a 10 win team.
  14. So the Bears finished 8-8, and actually beat SI.com's prediction by a game. Football Outsiders nailed it. Sporting News had the highest projection at 11 wins. Here were some predictions: Sporting News 11-5 ESPN 10-6 CBS 9-7 Football Outsiders 8-8 SI.com 7-9 This year was a disappointment and the team was literally two plays away from finishing 10-6 (LAC and OAK games). Just think how good this team would be with a top-15 offense. They played so bad, yet won 8 games. That ultimately means we can only go up from here. With the leaner schedule next year, that should be worth at least a game and if we play better on offense, that's another two games. That's 3 wins with very little change to the team.
  15. Yeah, it almost could not play out any better for us with the records of both teams.
  16. #43 and #50 equal #17 in the first round. So we are not doing too bad. I still think we take a player and trade back. Pick #50 can be traded back to pick #63 and #95, so a mid-2nd rounder can net you a late 2nd rounder and late 3rd rounder. So we could still draft 2x 2nd rounders and pick up a 3rd rounder. With the comp picks, we will be in much better shape with just one trade back. For finishing 8-8 and having the Raiders finish 7-9, it's crazy to think a 7-9 team would be drafting 11th in a round (2nd round). Normally that is the 6 win range. So we are lucky there are less teams under 7 wins this year. It's also great that the Raiders finished as the 2nd worse 7-9 team so the tie breaker rotation puts them first in the 2nd round. So we get the best pick possible (11th in the 2nd) from them. Just a thought, we are only a late 3rd round pick from moving back into the first round. We could use #43 + 2021 3rd Rounder to move into the back end of the first round. That would be a sneaky move. I would still use the other to trade back and get additional mid round picks.
  17. Oh man, that could not have worked out much better, here is the draft order for the 2020 draft: 1. CIN 2. WAS 3. DET 4. NYG 5. MIA 6. LAC 7. CAR 8. ARZ 9. JAX 10. CLE 11. NYJ 12. OAK (Pick #43 in 2nd Round) 13. IND 14. TB 15. DEN 16. ATL 17. DAL 18. PIT 19. CHI (Pick #50 in 2nd Round) 20. LAR So based on the tiebreaker rotation, OAK moves up to the first 7-9 slot in the 2nd round, and the Bears move up one slot in the 8-8 teams. So we end up giving up #19 for #43 and our 2nd round pick is #50. I originally thought we would get 45 and 52, so we are in a lot better position going into the draft.
  18. The team reverted to their 2019 style, 3 and outs and strip sack on offense, and the defense letting up multiple scoring drives. It should not have come to a late game win, but Trubisky did convert a 4th and 9 to a rookie WR. So that was impressive. Montgomery kept grinding. Pineiro hit a kick. They shouldn't have been in that position, but when they were, they converted.
  19. A win is a win, but man, the game should not have been this close against backups. If MIN plays their starters, we get beat by 30.
  20. So it looks like we are locked in at #18 and the only possible move is dropping to #19 with a PIT loss. The Rams have #20 locked up as the best team not to make the playoffs. We look to be 2nd in that race. The Raiders loss would be helpful for our 2nd round pick from them. They would be tied with NYJ, TB, ATL, and potentially DAL and IND at 7-9. Since NYJ has the worst SOS, they get the best first round pick, but then the pick rotate and the Raiders would get the best 2nd round pick among 7-9 teams (Pick #44), and we would have pick 50-52 depending on the outcome of the PIT and LAR games. 12. NYJ 7-9 .472 SOS 13. TB 7-9 .504 SOS 14. ATL 7-9 .545 SOS 15. OAK 7-8 .478 SOS (loss would drop them to 13th) 16. DAL 7-8 .480 SOS 17. IND 7-8 .490 SOS 18. CHI 8-8 .506 SOS 19. PIT 8-7 .500 SOS 20. LAR 8-7 .539 SOS -------------------- 21. PHI 8-7 .457 SOS 22. TEN 8-7 .492 SOS So we traded #18 for #44, and we pick again between 50-52.
  21. Yes, thankfully he nailed it. A good way to end the season, a Trubisky pass to get into FG range on 4th down, a Pineiro GW FG and a Eddie Jackson INT to end the game.
  22. This is setting up perfectly for a missed Pineiro kick to lose the game. The Vikings now lead 19-18 with 5 minutes left. Can Trubisky lead a game winning drive? Will Pineiro win it? A 4 and out is the most likely outcome.
  23. Absolutely embarrassing, just send Trubisky and Leno packing today. A strip sack in our red zone gifting points to Minnesota.
  24. Trubisky is clueless, he has zero pocket awareness. There is one guy rushing free and he doesn't step up in the pocket until he is hit and it's too late. He fumbles and recovers, but takes a huge loss. WTF man.
  25. Defense lets up another FG, luckily, after a few stupid calls by the refs. HHCD hits a WR with his shoulder and gets a personal foul, a BS call.
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