adam

Also, consider you only have to make 1 of 2 2pt conversions to get the same amount of points as 2 XPs made. If you do the math with 58% success rate on any 2-pt conversion, the odds of getting one 2-pt conversion out of 2 attempts is 82.4%. An XP has a 93.2% chance of being made, but making two? Now you are down to 86.9%. So if you have a league average or better kicker, you take the XP. However, if you have a crappy kicker, you should always go for two. Any team that has a kicker with an XP% less than 91% should go for two every time.

Check out this tweet pointing out how bad Maher is (Pineiro is worse). We got rid of Parkey and downgraded to Pineiro. Between 30-50 yds, Pineiro is ranked 37th, why is he still on this team? Only 6 kickers are worse than him for XPs. He has missed two. So if you figure the league average from inside 50 for any kick is around 80%, and XPs are 95%, Pineiro has cost us no less than 7 pts and one loss (LAC). So we are in for a treat on Thursday, a bad kickers duel. The over-under on missed kicks is 2. I have the over.

I still think it's crazy that we could be a 1/2 game back of Minnesota on Thursday with a win. Having Kwit in I think works to our advantage, Elliott only gets about 3-4 targets in the passing game (screens and dump offs) per game. Teams seem to be doing the whole two double team trap game with the first two blockers slipping off to take on the 2nd level. We have faced some pretty good RB's this year (Jacobs, Cook, Lindsay, Jones, Gurley) and for the most part held them in check. We need to do it for one more game without Hicks, then we get a fresh legged big man back in the heart of the defense. My biggest concern outside of kicker is Gallup or Cooper, whoever is not on Fuller's side.

Barring any last-minute stat updates, Nopper gets the win of the year, after losing 10 straight, they come out and beat PapaBear by the smallest margin of victory that I can remember in our league, eeking out a 0.02 pt victory over PapaBear 149.68 to 149.66 as Chris Carson loses a yard rushing in the last few seconds of garbage time vs Minnesota on MNF. If he doesn't lose the yard, PapaBear wins and is the #5 seed. SuperBearsSuperBowl beats MadLith, knocking him out of the playoff picture and jumping up to the #5 Seed. Seeds 1-4 were unchanged by the games this week. Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 (Championship) 1 --- Run Dem Pockets 10-3 ------------ | | | -------------------------- 4 --- Cali Bears 7-6 ---------- | | | | | | -------------- | | | 5 --- SuperBearsSB 7-6 ---- | | ---------------------------------- (1st Place) 3 --- Pepe 8-5 ------------------ | | | | -------------- | | | | 6 --- PapaBear 6-7 ----------- | | | --------------------------- | | 2 --- Domination Inc 10-3 ---------------- The Consolation Bracket (starts Week 15) The Winners play for 7th place and losers play for 9th: 7 - The Mad Lithuanians 6-7 --- | ------------------------------ 10 - Nopper 2-12 --------------------- | | --------------------------------- (7th Place) 8 - El Dragon 5-8 ---------------------- | | ------------------------------ 9 - The Bunny 4-9---------------------

Miller's numbers between last year and this year are fairly comparable, except for one huge hole, TDs. Miller caught 7 TDs in 15 games last year, and thru 12, has yet to catch one. In other words he is due. I would not be surprised if he gets 2-3 in the next 4 games or has one of those Gabriel games where he gets 3. 2018 - 33-423, 7 TD 2019 - 38-489, 0 TD He has a chance at 50+ receptions and over 600 yards. Miller has an interesting comp with Antonio Brown, both around the same size, Brown's two year totals were 85-1275, 2 TDs. So Miller would need 362 yards (91 per game) to match Brown after year two. He only needs 14 receptions to match him (3.5 per game) which seems much more achievable. He already has 5 more TDs than Brown had thru two years. If you go to 3 years, Brown only had 66-787 and 5 TDS that year. If Miller keeps trending up, he should hit that mark easily. Brown exploded on the scene in Year 4, that's when he started a run of 100 catches and 1200 yards per year for 6 straight years before becoming bat shit crazy and wiggin out of the league. In terms of production, I am hoping Miller takes the same arch. What do you think?

AZ, I agree. I still find it funny that Watson gets all this credit, yet is throwing to Hopkins or Fuller, Mahomes is throwing to Hill and Kelce, and until last week Trubisky has only had ARob (who was not 100% last year). We got a glimpse of what he can do with some protection and a couple of competent receivers in ARob and Miller.

LOL, that was the intended effect. To me, these next 4 games will define Trubisky's career, at least in Chicago. If he plays above average (so QBR 50.0/ QB Rating 88.6 and above) and helps the offense produce 20+ pts per game the remainder of the year, then I think you roll with him next year, and bring in a legit TE. If he underperforms, then he is, what he is. You bring in competition, draft one, and let the best one start next year. I don't think we need to go 4-0 to keep Trubisky, because there are too many other things that have to go right to go 4-0. However, the team has to go at least 3-1 for me to legitimately consider bringing him back. The worst outcome is if he plays well and we still lose. That would suck, but we would at least know he is not the problem. In 4 games, I want to see 10 TDs (Passing or Rushing), less than 3 INTs, 257 yards per game average, and a Y/A over 7.5.

That's true, and none seem any closer to winning it this year compared to last year. We are worse, KC is worse, and HOU is about the same but missing Watt and Clowney. Baltimore looks unbeatable, but it's hard to win like they have consistently. All it takes is for one hit on Jackson and they get RG3.

Bears are two-point dogs at home. The wheels have fallen off the Cowboys in their last two games and the Bills and Pats have given the Bears a blueprint for success. Dallas has 1 win against a team with more than 3 wins, the 5-7 Eagles. Trubisky is playing for his career. He will get a full week to prep for the Cowboys playing outside in the cold. The Bears need this game more than the Cowboys. Bears 20-12

I am just looking at the last 4 games for recency bias. Teams and coaches look at seasons in quarters. Well if you look at the last 4 game as a quarter, Trubisky is right there with the guys that are superior to him. Now he must do it down the stretch where every game is an elimination game. In regards to opponents, New England is nowhere near an elite team or defense. They had arguably the easiest schedule in the last decade. This was their 7 games stretch earlier in the season: (MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYG, NYJ, CLE). Then they got PHI and DAL right when they were both struggling. Their signature win is over BUF 16-10. They got torched by Jackson and Watson. So I would say their defense is more about their schedule than their own talent. They will waltz into the playoffs around 13-3 and be ready to host the Divisional Round and AFC Championship. The funniest thing would be for the Bills to beat them in Week 16 and have the same record, which would give BUF the division and would make the Pats a WC. That would be cool. For Mahomes, I am not arguing with his stats outside of the last quarter of a season where Trubisky has held his own vs his contemporaries. Trubisky has 4 more games to silence the doubters and make some more believers. This is his shot. If he plays like a #2 overall pick, we can win the next 4. It would make a great storyline. Beat Dallas on Thursday; with a mini bye and Akiem Hicks back, beat GB in Lambeau, then beat Mahomes at Soldier Field and finish the run against Minnesota to get a least a wild card slot. Then go right back to play GB in Lambeau WC Weekend with Trevathan back off IR. Beat the Pack again, and end up in New Orleans to beat Pace's old team and an aging Brees, then beat Jimmy G in the NFCC to play against Lamar Jackson in the SB to get blown out 41-9.

Interestingly that Trubisky could've played the best of the three QB's over the last quarter of a season, yet the other two are MVP candidates and all of Trubisky's incompletions are scrutinized. Kind of funny. 1. Trubisky 94-145, 64.8%, 979 yds, 244.8 YPG, 6.8 Y/A, 8 TD, 4 INT, 1 Rushing TD, 9 sacks 2. Watson 77-112, 68.8%, 902 yds, 225.5 YPG, 8.1 Y/A, 7 TD, 2 INT, 1 FUM, 1 TD Reception, 11 sacks 3. Mahomes 80-122, 65.6%, 879 yds, 219.8 YPG, 7.2 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rushing TD, 4 sacks Trubisky has more passing yards and TD's than two MVP candidates over the last 1/4 of the season.

Not that it matters, but at halftime, Mahomes is 10-20, 50%, 96 yds, 4.8 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sack against the Raiders at home, but because they are up 21-0, mainly due to their Defense and Special Teams, no one will say much about his 10 incompletions. Yet, somehow in a win, every Trubisky incompletion is getting analyzed and dissected like a frog in science class. Kinda funny. KC up 31-0, yet Mahomes is 13-27, 48.1%, 157 yds, 1 TD, crazy. When Trubisky has a line like that, we lose by 20.

There are 86 players in the league with more sacks than Floyd going into the Sunday games. There are 32 teams, so he would be 3rd-4th in sacks on most teams in the league. How much is 3rd-4th in sacks on a team as an Edge player worth? What if that guy is across from a player that is constantly double and triple-teamed? The Bears either have to take him for $13M+ with the 5th year option or release him. They can then renegotiate, but I can't see him playing for anything less than $7-8M a year and that will be too rich for the Bears blood. With Mack signed long term, they need to get younger on the Edge.

Both CAR and PHI lost, which puts both of them at 6-7. So the only teams ahead of the Bears for WC2 are the Rams and Vikings. The Rams are beating the Cardinals early and the Vikings play in Seattle on MNF. If Seattle can beat Minnesota tomorrow night, we would essentially be 1 game back with 3 to play (before our head to head....which is a must win). All we need to do is beat the Vikings in Week 17 and come into the game no more than 1 game back. If Seattle wins, this scenario is definitely possible.

He was at the bottom of the roster and didn't last more than one season with the Pats. McClellin hasn't played since that season. Going out on top?

If Roquan keeps this up, he would have to be in the All-Pro discussions at ILB, he is currently tied for 6th in the NFL in tackles. In the NFC, he is one of four LB's with a sack, an INT and 90+ tackles: 1. Jordan Hicks, ARZ, 110 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 INT 2. De'Vondre Campbell, ATL, 99 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT 3. Roquan Smith, CHI, 98 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT 4. Cory Littleton, LAR, 94 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT Jaylon Smith leads the NFL with 112 tackles and has 2 sacks, but no INTs. Now if you only count solo tackles, Roquan has 65, Smith has 68, and the league leader is Budda Baker who has 71. So Smith is really close to the league lead and if he has a few more games with 10 tackles, he might get there.

I think there is a difference for QBs when it is a bad throw vs a bad decision. Like when they completely miss a LB or Safety or a CB drops off and cuts of the pass, compared to just a pass thrown behind the receiver. Trubisky just didn't lead Robinson enough and Slay undercut the pass because he had time to catch up. I can live with some bad passes, it's the bad decisions that are game breakers.

Happy Holidays Mongo! A great looking Bear family!

I hope it is, a bust is a bust. Move on and let it be the end of it. Just like McClellin, remember him?

Check out the stats between Trubisky and Wentz since the start of last season: Trubisky 519-795, 65.3%, 5419 yds, 37 TD, 19 INT, 6.8 Y/A; Rushing: 94-501 Yds, 4 TD Wentz 522-789, 66.2%, 5604 yds, 38 TD, 13 INT, 7.1 Y/A, Rushing: 79-281 Yds, 1 TD After the Thursday game, they are within 3 completions, 6 attempts, 185 yards, and 1 TD. Trubisky has 6 more INTs but also has 220 more rushing yards and 3 TDs. Outside of that, these guys are eerily similar. I know Wentz has been getting some flak, but I don't think I have ever seen a QB have each incompletion or INT analyzed like Trubisky. Have you?

In his career, Floyd (18.5) has 1 more sack than Jordan Jenkins (17.5) and 2.5 more than Kyler Fackrell (16.0). Forced Fumbles, Floyd has one. Jenkins has 5 and even Fackrell has 2. Both Jenkins and Fackrell are 3rd rounders making $2.2M a year. Floyd makes $2.6M, and that would jump to $13.2M next season. If they want to bring him back under $3M, fine, but he has done nothing to earn more than that. The O-Line dilemma sucks. I don't know why Pace would lock up a mediocre line. All the advanced stats said they were below league average and then you reward Massie and Leno with big deals and lock them up long term. Immediately after that, they become lazy bums. Patterson has really shown some good ST value, I just don't know if that is enough to keep him at that price tag. Gabriel is gone. Miller has shown he can be a clear #2 and ARob needs to be locked up for a long term deal. I still like the idea of bringing in a vet at a reasonable salary and drafting a guy in the mid rounds unless someone falls out of the first.

Skrine has been actually played solid in one of the toughest positions on the defense. Kwit has filled in admirably, and HHCD has been better than Jackson and more consistent for the entire season. With the cap crunch hitting next year due to Mack's contract, there is just no way to pay everyone. It seems like it will come down to what the team values more (Floyd, Trevathan, or HHCD), but I only see one of them staying due to their contract expectations. My assumption is they will resign Kwit and keep HHCD. That would be the cheapest option for maintaining continuity with not too much performance drop off. I love Danny and he is a huge locker room presence, but he will be turning 30 in March, and unless he takes a huge home team discount, I doubt he is back (unfortunately). Both Kwit and HHCD are in their primes at 26. Another issue with continuity would be losing two DB's in the same offseason (Prince and HHCD). Now you have half the field to address in the secondary.

Man, am I done with Floyd, Lynch, and Prince. Those three need to be gone next year. They are huge holes in our defense. Floyd can't do anything across Khalil Mack, which is borderline criminal for a top 10 pick. He has 3 sacks, 3 TFL, and 0 PD. He only had 4 sacks last year and only 4.5 two years ago. So in his last 38 games, Floyd has 11.5 sacks. That is not enough for the money he is expected to get, even on the 5th year option. He is not worth that much money. Lynch is a lazy and undisciplined player. He was late on the field for a play and just stood there, and had another penalty, and now has 5 on the season. For a situational player, you can't have that many penalties preventing the defense from getting off the field. Prince is such a liability, he makes a couple of plays every now and then, so he has a lot of passes defended. However, that's just because he is getting more balls thrown at him. He is continually beat on every play and gets burnt a lot when targeted. The Bears have to address that position in the offseason. I am now thinking that it might get bumped up in priority in the offseason.

So in the last 3 games, Roquan has 30 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 PD. This is an All-Pro stat line. This corresponds with the 3 games that Trevathan has missed. Roquan has really stepped up. The storyline is going to get interesting this week as some speculation earlier in the season was that Roquan was having some issues with the Bears throwback jerseys. Well, this upcoming week, the Bears will go back to those throwbacks, so we will see if we can rule that out once and for all. Hopefully we do. The Bears needed Roquan to be a top 10 pick and he is delivering. We are also getting great play out of Kwit filling in for Trevathan. He will come in handy against DAL this week with Elliott running the ball.

What's interesting about penalties is, if I asked you have the Bears had more penalties called on us or our opponents? I believe the consensus answer would be calls against us, and we would all be wrong. The Bears have 85 against and 91 for, for a net of +6. We are right around league average for penalties and in the top 10 for calls against the other team. What I think we are seeing is more preventable calls than there needs to be. If we can cut down on even 1-2 of those a game, it will make a huge difference. For me, right now, this team is literally 3-4 plays away from being a playoff team. Cut down on 1-2 penalties, have one less drop on offense, and one less blown coverage or assignment on defense, and this team is a top 10 team. That is how close it feels.