adam

I still think it's crazy that we could be a 1/2 game back of Minnesota on Thursday with a win. Having Kwit in I think works to our advantage, Elliott only gets about 3-4 targets in the passing game (screens and dump offs) per game. Teams seem to be doing the whole two double team trap game with the first two blockers slipping off to take on the 2nd level. We have faced some pretty good RB's this year (Jacobs, Cook, Lindsay, Jones, Gurley) and for the most part held them in check. We need to do it for one more game without Hicks, then we get a fresh legged big man back in the heart of the defense. My biggest concern outside of kicker is Gallup or Cooper, whoever is not on Fuller's side.

Barring any last-minute stat updates, Nopper gets the win of the year, after losing 10 straight, they come out and beat PapaBear by the smallest margin of victory that I can remember in our league, eeking out a 0.02 pt victory over PapaBear 149.68 to 149.66 as Chris Carson loses a yard rushing in the last few seconds of garbage time vs Minnesota on MNF. If he doesn't lose the yard, PapaBear wins and is the #5 seed. SuperBearsSuperBowl beats MadLith, knocking him out of the playoff picture and jumping up to the #5 Seed. Seeds 1-4 were unchanged by the games this week. Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 (Championship) 1 --- Run Dem Pockets 10-3 ------------ | | | -------------------------- 4 --- Cali Bears 7-6 ---------- | | | | | | -------------- | | | 5 --- SuperBearsSB 7-6 ---- | | ---------------------------------- (1st Place) 3 --- Pepe 8-5 ------------------ | | | | -------------- | | | | 6 --- PapaBear 6-7 ----------- | | | --------------------------- | | 2 --- Domination Inc 10-3 ---------------- The Consolation Bracket (starts Week 15) The Winners play for 7th place and losers play for 9th: 7 - The Mad Lithuanians 6-7 --- | ------------------------------ 10 - Nopper 2-12 --------------------- | | --------------------------------- (7th Place) 8 - El Dragon 5-8 ---------------------- | | ------------------------------ 9 - The Bunny 4-9---------------------

Miller's numbers between last year and this year are fairly comparable, except for one huge hole, TDs. Miller caught 7 TDs in 15 games last year, and thru 12, has yet to catch one. In other words he is due. I would not be surprised if he gets 2-3 in the next 4 games or has one of those Gabriel games where he gets 3. 2018 - 33-423, 7 TD 2019 - 38-489, 0 TD He has a chance at 50+ receptions and over 600 yards. Miller has an interesting comp with Antonio Brown, both around the same size, Brown's two year totals were 85-1275, 2 TDs. So Miller would need 362 yards (91 per game) to match Brown after year two. He only needs 14 receptions to match him (3.5 per game) which seems much more achievable. He already has 5 more TDs than Brown had thru two years. If you go to 3 years, Brown only had 66-787 and 5 TDS that year. If Miller keeps trending up, he should hit that mark easily. Brown exploded on the scene in Year 4, that's when he started a run of 100 catches and 1200 yards per year for 6 straight years before becoming bat shit crazy and wiggin out of the league. In terms of production, I am hoping Miller takes the same arch. What do you think?

AZ, I agree. I still find it funny that Watson gets all this credit, yet is throwing to Hopkins or Fuller, Mahomes is throwing to Hill and Kelce, and until last week Trubisky has only had ARob (who was not 100% last year). We got a glimpse of what he can do with some protection and a couple of competent receivers in ARob and Miller.

LOL, that was the intended effect. To me, these next 4 games will define Trubisky's career, at least in Chicago. If he plays above average (so QBR 50.0/ QB Rating 88.6 and above) and helps the offense produce 20+ pts per game the remainder of the year, then I think you roll with him next year, and bring in a legit TE. If he underperforms, then he is, what he is. You bring in competition, draft one, and let the best one start next year. I don't think we need to go 4-0 to keep Trubisky, because there are too many other things that have to go right to go 4-0. However, the team has to go at least 3-1 for me to legitimately consider bringing him back. The worst outcome is if he plays well and we still lose. That would suck, but we would at least know he is not the problem. In 4 games, I want to see 10 TDs (Passing or Rushing), less than 3 INTs, 257 yards per game average, and a Y/A over 7.5.

That's true, and none seem any closer to winning it this year compared to last year. We are worse, KC is worse, and HOU is about the same but missing Watt and Clowney. Baltimore looks unbeatable, but it's hard to win like they have consistently. All it takes is for one hit on Jackson and they get RG3.

Bears are two-point dogs at home. The wheels have fallen off the Cowboys in their last two games and the Bills and Pats have given the Bears a blueprint for success. Dallas has 1 win against a team with more than 3 wins, the 5-7 Eagles. Trubisky is playing for his career. He will get a full week to prep for the Cowboys playing outside in the cold. The Bears need this game more than the Cowboys. Bears 20-12

I am just looking at the last 4 games for recency bias. Teams and coaches look at seasons in quarters. Well if you look at the last 4 game as a quarter, Trubisky is right there with the guys that are superior to him. Now he must do it down the stretch where every game is an elimination game. In regards to opponents, New England is nowhere near an elite team or defense. They had arguably the easiest schedule in the last decade. This was their 7 games stretch earlier in the season: (MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYG, NYJ, CLE). Then they got PHI and DAL right when they were both struggling. Their signature win is over BUF 16-10. They got torched by Jackson and Watson. So I would say their defense is more about their schedule than their own talent. They will waltz into the playoffs around 13-3 and be ready to host the Divisional Round and AFC Championship. The funniest thing would be for the Bills to beat them in Week 16 and have the same record, which would give BUF the division and would make the Pats a WC. That would be cool. For Mahomes, I am not arguing with his stats outside of the last quarter of a season where Trubisky has held his own vs his contemporaries. Trubisky has 4 more games to silence the doubters and make some more believers. This is his shot. If he plays like a #2 overall pick, we can win the next 4. It would make a great storyline. Beat Dallas on Thursday; with a mini bye and Akiem Hicks back, beat GB in Lambeau, then beat Mahomes at Soldier Field and finish the run against Minnesota to get a least a wild card slot. Then go right back to play GB in Lambeau WC Weekend with Trevathan back off IR. Beat the Pack again, and end up in New Orleans to beat Pace's old team and an aging Brees, then beat Jimmy G in the NFCC to play against Lamar Jackson in the SB to get blown out 41-9.

Interestingly that Trubisky could've played the best of the three QB's over the last quarter of a season, yet the other two are MVP candidates and all of Trubisky's incompletions are scrutinized. Kind of funny. 1. Trubisky 94-145, 64.8%, 979 yds, 244.8 YPG, 6.8 Y/A, 8 TD, 4 INT, 1 Rushing TD, 9 sacks 2. Watson 77-112, 68.8%, 902 yds, 225.5 YPG, 8.1 Y/A, 7 TD, 2 INT, 1 FUM, 1 TD Reception, 11 sacks 3. Mahomes 80-122, 65.6%, 879 yds, 219.8 YPG, 7.2 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rushing TD, 4 sacks Trubisky has more passing yards and TD's than two MVP candidates over the last 1/4 of the season.

Not that it matters, but at halftime, Mahomes is 10-20, 50%, 96 yds, 4.8 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sack against the Raiders at home, but because they are up 21-0, mainly due to their Defense and Special Teams, no one will say much about his 10 incompletions. Yet, somehow in a win, every Trubisky incompletion is getting analyzed and dissected like a frog in science class. Kinda funny. KC up 31-0, yet Mahomes is 13-27, 48.1%, 157 yds, 1 TD, crazy. When Trubisky has a line like that, we lose by 20.

There are 86 players in the league with more sacks than Floyd going into the Sunday games. There are 32 teams, so he would be 3rd-4th in sacks on most teams in the league. How much is 3rd-4th in sacks on a team as an Edge player worth? What if that guy is across from a player that is constantly double and triple-teamed? The Bears either have to take him for $13M+ with the 5th year option or release him. They can then renegotiate, but I can't see him playing for anything less than $7-8M a year and that will be too rich for the Bears blood. With Mack signed long term, they need to get younger on the Edge.

Both CAR and PHI lost, which puts both of them at 6-7. So the only teams ahead of the Bears for WC2 are the Rams and Vikings. The Rams are beating the Cardinals early and the Vikings play in Seattle on MNF. If Seattle can beat Minnesota tomorrow night, we would essentially be 1 game back with 3 to play (before our head to head....which is a must win). All we need to do is beat the Vikings in Week 17 and come into the game no more than 1 game back. If Seattle wins, this scenario is definitely possible.

He was at the bottom of the roster and didn't last more than one season with the Pats. McClellin hasn't played since that season. Going out on top?

If Roquan keeps this up, he would have to be in the All-Pro discussions at ILB, he is currently tied for 6th in the NFL in tackles. In the NFC, he is one of four LB's with a sack, an INT and 90+ tackles: 1. Jordan Hicks, ARZ, 110 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 INT 2. De'Vondre Campbell, ATL, 99 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT 3. Roquan Smith, CHI, 98 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT 4. Cory Littleton, LAR, 94 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 INT Jaylon Smith leads the NFL with 112 tackles and has 2 sacks, but no INTs. Now if you only count solo tackles, Roquan has 65, Smith has 68, and the league leader is Budda Baker who has 71. So Smith is really close to the league lead and if he has a few more games with 10 tackles, he might get there.

I think there is a difference for QBs when it is a bad throw vs a bad decision. Like when they completely miss a LB or Safety or a CB drops off and cuts of the pass, compared to just a pass thrown behind the receiver. Trubisky just didn't lead Robinson enough and Slay undercut the pass because he had time to catch up. I can live with some bad passes, it's the bad decisions that are game breakers.

Happy Holidays Mongo! A great looking Bear family!

I hope it is, a bust is a bust. Move on and let it be the end of it. Just like McClellin, remember him?

Check out the stats between Trubisky and Wentz since the start of last season: Trubisky 519-795, 65.3%, 5419 yds, 37 TD, 19 INT, 6.8 Y/A; Rushing: 94-501 Yds, 4 TD Wentz 522-789, 66.2%, 5604 yds, 38 TD, 13 INT, 7.1 Y/A, Rushing: 79-281 Yds, 1 TD After the Thursday game, they are within 3 completions, 6 attempts, 185 yards, and 1 TD. Trubisky has 6 more INTs but also has 220 more rushing yards and 3 TDs. Outside of that, these guys are eerily similar. I know Wentz has been getting some flak, but I don't think I have ever seen a QB have each incompletion or INT analyzed like Trubisky. Have you?

In his career, Floyd (18.5) has 1 more sack than Jordan Jenkins (17.5) and 2.5 more than Kyler Fackrell (16.0). Forced Fumbles, Floyd has one. Jenkins has 5 and even Fackrell has 2. Both Jenkins and Fackrell are 3rd rounders making $2.2M a year. Floyd makes $2.6M, and that would jump to $13.2M next season. If they want to bring him back under $3M, fine, but he has done nothing to earn more than that. The O-Line dilemma sucks. I don't know why Pace would lock up a mediocre line. All the advanced stats said they were below league average and then you reward Massie and Leno with big deals and lock them up long term. Immediately after that, they become lazy bums. Patterson has really shown some good ST value, I just don't know if that is enough to keep him at that price tag. Gabriel is gone. Miller has shown he can be a clear #2 and ARob needs to be locked up for a long term deal. I still like the idea of bringing in a vet at a reasonable salary and drafting a guy in the mid rounds unless someone falls out of the first.

Skrine has been actually played solid in one of the toughest positions on the defense. Kwit has filled in admirably, and HHCD has been better than Jackson and more consistent for the entire season. With the cap crunch hitting next year due to Mack's contract, there is just no way to pay everyone. It seems like it will come down to what the team values more (Floyd, Trevathan, or HHCD), but I only see one of them staying due to their contract expectations. My assumption is they will resign Kwit and keep HHCD. That would be the cheapest option for maintaining continuity with not too much performance drop off. I love Danny and he is a huge locker room presence, but he will be turning 30 in March, and unless he takes a huge home team discount, I doubt he is back (unfortunately). Both Kwit and HHCD are in their primes at 26. Another issue with continuity would be losing two DB's in the same offseason (Prince and HHCD). Now you have half the field to address in the secondary.

Man, am I done with Floyd, Lynch, and Prince. Those three need to be gone next year. They are huge holes in our defense. Floyd can't do anything across Khalil Mack, which is borderline criminal for a top 10 pick. He has 3 sacks, 3 TFL, and 0 PD. He only had 4 sacks last year and only 4.5 two years ago. So in his last 38 games, Floyd has 11.5 sacks. That is not enough for the money he is expected to get, even on the 5th year option. He is not worth that much money. Lynch is a lazy and undisciplined player. He was late on the field for a play and just stood there, and had another penalty, and now has 5 on the season. For a situational player, you can't have that many penalties preventing the defense from getting off the field. Prince is such a liability, he makes a couple of plays every now and then, so he has a lot of passes defended. However, that's just because he is getting more balls thrown at him. He is continually beat on every play and gets burnt a lot when targeted. The Bears have to address that position in the offseason. I am now thinking that it might get bumped up in priority in the offseason.

So in the last 3 games, Roquan has 30 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 PD. This is an All-Pro stat line. This corresponds with the 3 games that Trevathan has missed. Roquan has really stepped up. The storyline is going to get interesting this week as some speculation earlier in the season was that Roquan was having some issues with the Bears throwback jerseys. Well, this upcoming week, the Bears will go back to those throwbacks, so we will see if we can rule that out once and for all. Hopefully we do. The Bears needed Roquan to be a top 10 pick and he is delivering. We are also getting great play out of Kwit filling in for Trevathan. He will come in handy against DAL this week with Elliott running the ball.

What's interesting about penalties is, if I asked you have the Bears had more penalties called on us or our opponents? I believe the consensus answer would be calls against us, and we would all be wrong. The Bears have 85 against and 91 for, for a net of +6. We are right around league average for penalties and in the top 10 for calls against the other team. What I think we are seeing is more preventable calls than there needs to be. If we can cut down on even 1-2 of those a game, it will make a huge difference. For me, right now, this team is literally 3-4 plays away from being a playoff team. Cut down on 1-2 penalties, have one less drop on offense, and one less blown coverage or assignment on defense, and this team is a top 10 team. That is how close it feels.

So here we are. 6-6 with 4 games to play. Not where we wanted to be, but I also didn't think GB and MIN would both be 8-3 at this time. That puts us a little further back than expected. If we could've eeked out that win against LAC or OAK, we would be sitting in a completely different spot right now. So to make the playoffs, our target is MIN, since we have the tie-breaker against them. All we have to do is beat them in Week 17 and end up with the same record as them. That means we can go into Week 17 one game back. That also means we need some help and for the Vikings to lose two more games than us in the next 5 games (for MIN). This week MIN gets to play in SEA. This should be a loss. It's a prime time game, and Cousins usually folds in these situations. It's also in SEA, which is always a tough place to play. Let's call this a loss. That puts the Bears 2 games back with 4 to play. Now remember, we only need to be within one game heading into Week 17. That means the Bears need to have a better record in Weeks 14-16 (3 games) than the Vikings. In Week 14, next week, we get Dallas at home on Thursday Night. Dallas is really struggling, just had a team blow up in the locker room after the loss to the Bills. Game time temperature will be sub-40 and Dallas is a warm/dome team. Their kicker missed multiple FGs and the team got embarrassed against a team that is built like us. So the Bears have a fresh blueprint on how to dominate the Cowboys. Minnesota plays the Lions at home, I don't see the Lions winning, but crazier things have happened. So call this week a wash with both teams winning. It's a must-win for us considering Dallas may come into play for WC2. For Week 15, the Bears play in Lambeau off a mini-bye while the Vikings play at the Chargers. For us, it's obviously a must-win. Interestingly, our game is not a prime time game, just a normal noon kickoff. So that's a plus for us. I think we get some revenge against the Pack where Leonard Floyd always has a great game. Guess what, the Vikings get to play the Chargers on SNF, another primetime game and another game for Cousins to choke. I see the Bears have a chance to pickup a game here. So the Bears pull within one game of the Vikings. Another note for us, Hicks might be back for this game, which would be huge against GB. Now to Week 16, the Vikings get the Packers, on MNF. It a home game for Minnesota, but another prime time game, is another bad game for Cousins. This would the only week I would be rooting for the Packers to win (only if we are 1 game back at this point). Packers win. We have an opportunity to play KC at home on SNF. This is the Mitch Trubisky redemption game. If he can beat Mahomes on SNF in Week 16, while both teams are vying for a playoff spot, it would be huge for his confidence and at least a small reprieve for Pace for one week. I don't see the Bears winning, so this allows the Vikings to maintain a one-game lead on us heading into Week 17. For Week 17, of all the remaining games, this is the only true must-win, but it's only that way if we are within one game or tied heading into Week 17. There is no scenario where we are up one game heading into Week 17, so no matter what, either we are playing spoiler at 7-8 or are 8-7 with a chance to sneak in at 9-7 with the tiebreaker over the Vikings. Bears win, 9-7, WC2 slot, which would setup to play DIV3 winner, GB in the first round, a team the Bears might have just beaten two weeks before. Talk about a storyline. Now for 9-7 to work, MIN obviously has to lose to LAC, GB, and CHI, while the Bears have to win 3 of 4 against DAL, GB, KC, and MIN. Also, we have a couple of other teams to worry about that are lingering around WC2, LAR at 6-5, PHI at 5-6, and CAR at 5-6. Here is what those teams have remaining: LAR: at ARZ, vs SEA, at DAL, at SF, vs ARZ. They will split with ARZ, and lose to SEA, DAL, and SF. At most 2 wins here to finish 8-8. I don't see them winning 3, but if they did, they have the head to head tiebreaker against us. PHI: at MIA, vs NYG, at WAS, vs DAL, at NYG. Philly has a favorable schedule, but they have looked terrible since beating us. They probably win 3 of 5, but that puts them at 8-8. I don't see them going 4-1 down the stretch, even with that schedule. If they do, they have the tie-breaker against us as well. CAR: vs WAS, at ATL, vs SEA, at IND, vs NO. Carolina has the 2nd toughest schedule of these 3 teams and have lost 4 of their last 5 including games to NO and ATL who they play again. I don't see them beating SEA or even IND. So if they split NO and ATL and beat WAS, they end up at 8-8, going 3-2 to close out the season. I don't see them winning 4. Even if they did, we would have the tiebreaker against them at 9-7 overall with a better conference record. One other team to watch is DAL, they are currently at 6-6, but if we are going to make the playoffs, a win against them is a must win game. So if we do beat them, they would go to 6-7 and then PHI comes into play for the division. The good thing is, since we would have beaten them head to head. Even if they win out after us and tie us at 9-7, we would have the head to head tie breaker for the Wild Card. This would only occur if Philly got hot and somehow finished with a better record than the Cowboys (DAL owns the tiebreakers). Now most projections have us only winning one of our last 4 and finishing 7-9. That to me would be a disappointment. I would feel meh about 8-8, and I think 9-7 or 10-6 would be surprising.

Trubisky has looked pretty good the last couple of weeks. All his numbers are up and he is almost back to where he was last year. To exceed his yardage from last year, which would be shocking given how poorly he played for the first half of the season, he only needs to average 257 yards a game. After the last two games, it seems like he legitimately has a shot at that. For TDs, if he averages 2.75 a game (11 in next 4 games), he will tie his last season total. This one might be tough, but he can hopefully break 20 for the year (with 7). His comp% is up to 63.7, so that is within 3% of his average last year. The biggest drop off in stats is with his running. He will be lucky to finish the year with even half of what he had his rookie year (a quarter of what he had last year). It seems like this is actually the biggest factor in his play, he is not extending plays with his feet like he did last year, which masked the bad O-Line play, and inconsistencies on offense. The one area he has improved in is ball security, only 2 fumbles (1 lost) on the season. He needs to keep this up the last 4 games. If we get something close to the Trubisky we got on Thursday every game, I am good with that. Low end 250 yds and a TD, high end 350 with 3 TDs. These last 4 weeks will be telling. Every game is a playoff game against a playoff-caliber opponent. Even if our record was better, if we can't beat these teams, we shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway. btw, Trubisky's Passer Rating is up to 84.4 on the season, which is only slightly worse than his career average of 86.6. Another good game and he should be over that mark for the season.