adam

What's interesting about penalties is, if I asked you have the Bears had more penalties called on us or our opponents? I believe the consensus answer would be calls against us, and we would all be wrong. The Bears have 85 against and 91 for, for a net of +6. We are right around league average for penalties and in the top 10 for calls against the other team. What I think we are seeing is more preventable calls than there needs to be. If we can cut down on even 1-2 of those a game, it will make a huge difference. For me, right now, this team is literally 3-4 plays away from being a playoff team. Cut down on 1-2 penalties, have one less drop on offense, and one less blown coverage or assignment on defense, and this team is a top 10 team. That is how close it feels.

So here we are. 6-6 with 4 games to play. Not where we wanted to be, but I also didn't think GB and MIN would both be 8-3 at this time. That puts us a little further back than expected. If we could've eeked out that win against LAC or OAK, we would be sitting in a completely different spot right now. So to make the playoffs, our target is MIN, since we have the tie-breaker against them. All we have to do is beat them in Week 17 and end up with the same record as them. That means we can go into Week 17 one game back. That also means we need some help and for the Vikings to lose two more games than us in the next 5 games (for MIN). This week MIN gets to play in SEA. This should be a loss. It's a prime time game, and Cousins usually folds in these situations. It's also in SEA, which is always a tough place to play. Let's call this a loss. That puts the Bears 2 games back with 4 to play. Now remember, we only need to be within one game heading into Week 17. That means the Bears need to have a better record in Weeks 14-16 (3 games) than the Vikings. In Week 14, next week, we get Dallas at home on Thursday Night. Dallas is really struggling, just had a team blow up in the locker room after the loss to the Bills. Game time temperature will be sub-40 and Dallas is a warm/dome team. Their kicker missed multiple FGs and the team got embarrassed against a team that is built like us. So the Bears have a fresh blueprint on how to dominate the Cowboys. Minnesota plays the Lions at home, I don't see the Lions winning, but crazier things have happened. So call this week a wash with both teams winning. It's a must-win for us considering Dallas may come into play for WC2. For Week 15, the Bears play in Lambeau off a mini-bye while the Vikings play at the Chargers. For us, it's obviously a must-win. Interestingly, our game is not a prime time game, just a normal noon kickoff. So that's a plus for us. I think we get some revenge against the Pack where Leonard Floyd always has a great game. Guess what, the Vikings get to play the Chargers on SNF, another primetime game and another game for Cousins to choke. I see the Bears have a chance to pickup a game here. So the Bears pull within one game of the Vikings. Another note for us, Hicks might be back for this game, which would be huge against GB. Now to Week 16, the Vikings get the Packers, on MNF. It a home game for Minnesota, but another prime time game, is another bad game for Cousins. This would the only week I would be rooting for the Packers to win (only if we are 1 game back at this point). Packers win. We have an opportunity to play KC at home on SNF. This is the Mitch Trubisky redemption game. If he can beat Mahomes on SNF in Week 16, while both teams are vying for a playoff spot, it would be huge for his confidence and at least a small reprieve for Pace for one week. I don't see the Bears winning, so this allows the Vikings to maintain a one-game lead on us heading into Week 17. For Week 17, of all the remaining games, this is the only true must-win, but it's only that way if we are within one game or tied heading into Week 17. There is no scenario where we are up one game heading into Week 17, so no matter what, either we are playing spoiler at 7-8 or are 8-7 with a chance to sneak in at 9-7 with the tiebreaker over the Vikings. Bears win, 9-7, WC2 slot, which would setup to play DIV3 winner, GB in the first round, a team the Bears might have just beaten two weeks before. Talk about a storyline. Now for 9-7 to work, MIN obviously has to lose to LAC, GB, and CHI, while the Bears have to win 3 of 4 against DAL, GB, KC, and MIN. Also, we have a couple of other teams to worry about that are lingering around WC2, LAR at 6-5, PHI at 5-6, and CAR at 5-6. Here is what those teams have remaining: LAR: at ARZ, vs SEA, at DAL, at SF, vs ARZ. They will split with ARZ, and lose to SEA, DAL, and SF. At most 2 wins here to finish 8-8. I don't see them winning 3, but if they did, they have the head to head tiebreaker against us. PHI: at MIA, vs NYG, at WAS, vs DAL, at NYG. Philly has a favorable schedule, but they have looked terrible since beating us. They probably win 3 of 5, but that puts them at 8-8. I don't see them going 4-1 down the stretch, even with that schedule. If they do, they have the tie-breaker against us as well. CAR: vs WAS, at ATL, vs SEA, at IND, vs NO. Carolina has the 2nd toughest schedule of these 3 teams and have lost 4 of their last 5 including games to NO and ATL who they play again. I don't see them beating SEA or even IND. So if they split NO and ATL and beat WAS, they end up at 8-8, going 3-2 to close out the season. I don't see them winning 4. Even if they did, we would have the tiebreaker against them at 9-7 overall with a better conference record. One other team to watch is DAL, they are currently at 6-6, but if we are going to make the playoffs, a win against them is a must win game. So if we do beat them, they would go to 6-7 and then PHI comes into play for the division. The good thing is, since we would have beaten them head to head. Even if they win out after us and tie us at 9-7, we would have the head to head tie breaker for the Wild Card. This would only occur if Philly got hot and somehow finished with a better record than the Cowboys (DAL owns the tiebreakers). Now most projections have us only winning one of our last 4 and finishing 7-9. That to me would be a disappointment. I would feel meh about 8-8, and I think 9-7 or 10-6 would be surprising.

Trubisky has looked pretty good the last couple of weeks. All his numbers are up and he is almost back to where he was last year. To exceed his yardage from last year, which would be shocking given how poorly he played for the first half of the season, he only needs to average 257 yards a game. After the last two games, it seems like he legitimately has a shot at that. For TDs, if he averages 2.75 a game (11 in next 4 games), he will tie his last season total. This one might be tough, but he can hopefully break 20 for the year (with 7). His comp% is up to 63.7, so that is within 3% of his average last year. The biggest drop off in stats is with his running. He will be lucky to finish the year with even half of what he had his rookie year (a quarter of what he had last year). It seems like this is actually the biggest factor in his play, he is not extending plays with his feet like he did last year, which masked the bad O-Line play, and inconsistencies on offense. The one area he has improved in is ball security, only 2 fumbles (1 lost) on the season. He needs to keep this up the last 4 games. If we get something close to the Trubisky we got on Thursday every game, I am good with that. Low end 250 yds and a TD, high end 350 with 3 TDs. These last 4 weeks will be telling. Every game is a playoff game against a playoff-caliber opponent. Even if our record was better, if we can't beat these teams, we shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway. btw, Trubisky's Passer Rating is up to 84.4 on the season, which is only slightly worse than his career average of 86.6. Another good game and he should be over that mark for the season.

I agree on the QBs, if you didn't know who was who or their past performances, you would think Trubisky was the franchise QB, which is refreshing. We need to see him string together games like this. I would say, if this is who he is, then I am good with it. Just need this more often. The O-Line is still a problem, but did play better. Still some guys getting completely beat or stupid penalties, but overall, an improvement from previous games. They need to keep that trend. Lucas played decent filling in for Massie.

Full body weight, driven into the ground, the exact definition of a penalty for roughing the passer, yet this was not called:

No flag:

The Bears get Dallas next at home, next Thursday. The Cowboys just got embarrassed at home by the Bills. We are a very similar comp to the Bills. Also, game time temperature is expected to be in the mid-30's at game time. Prescott has one game with temps under 40 this year: 19-33, 212 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 64.2 QB Rtg. So we should have a favorable matchup at home. You can't ask for much more than that. If we win, then we go to Lambeau after a mini-bye, coming off a THU game. There is a chance that Hicks will be back for that game. If he comes back, the Bears will have a real shot at winning that. Then it's KC at home, who is only 7-4 and has alternated wins and losses every week for the last 6. They are not as dominant as they appeared to be earlier in the season. Then we get MIN in the final game, who we already beat. The hope is we are no worse than one game down entering Week 17. If that is the case, Week 17 basically becomes a play-in game. If we are really a playoff team, these all should be wins. Every game here on out is an elimination game. Win or the season is over. It's that simple. MIN is at SEA this week, then the Lions at home, then out to LAC, which is never easy to do, then GB at home. So all we need is for SEA and GB to beat MIN to have a chance. However, if LAC somehow beats MIN, then we have a really good chance at the playoffs. In regards to the game, Fuller made a shoe-string tackle that ultimately prevented a TD. One of the plays of the game. Something that might be missed is Patterson had two long returns, a 57-yarder and a 33-yarder that gave the Bears favorable field position. Penalties have to be cleaned up, we had 10 for 89 yards. Most were avoidable, one or two were pretty ticky tack. Montgomery was 16-75, 4.7 and had some holes. They need to keep going back to the successful runs and stop the RPO handoff that gets plugged every time. They know Trubisky is not running, so they all crash in. This was by far Mitch's best game of the year. He ended with solid numbers and his INT was on a crossing route where Arob had a step on Slay, but Trubisky didn't lead Arob enough, which allowed Slay who was trailing to undercut the throw and make the INT. Slay actually bobbled it, but still caught it. We had several of our defenders drop INTs. Kwit had another solid game and had one of those near picks. I thought he had it, but they called it incomplete on the field. The officiating was horrible. They missed two roughing the passer calls against Trubisky where he was hit in the head or when the defender landed on him with his entire body weight. Both plays, not call. The refs also gave DET some favorable spots that the Bears didn't challenge. So with all that against the team, they still came out with the W. You can feel the confidence growing and I think they are peaking at the right time of the year.

OMG yeah, he was literally the worst player on both teams on the field. If you watch him, his receiver was open all game long.

Trubisky's numbers today: 29-38, 76.3%, 338 yds, 8.9 Y/A, 3 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sack ,118.1 Rating. He had 9 incompletions, with 1 as the INT, and there were a couple of drops. There were a few that were throwaways, so he had about 3-4 incomplete passes that were his fault.

Connor, just reading your posts, I was thinking the same thing the entire game. It was literally a postive play followed by a negative play, or a great play negated by a penalty. If they can somehow clean up some of these mistakes, this team will actually be pretty good. Also, Prince got completely exposed today. He is not a starting CB, and he will not be back next year. Of all the players on both sides of the ball, he is the donkey today. Worst player on the field for both teams.

Seriously, after that first 75 yard TD pass, I was like oh no. However, after the first quarter the Bears outscored the Lions 17-6, it wasn't really that close, we just never broke out with a big lead.

This was the most Jekyll and Hyde game all year. Great plays followed by bad plays. We should've won comfortably by 2 TDs. It should not have come down to the Lions inside the 25 needing a TD to win. Way to close for me. Outside of 2-3 passes, Trubisky looked much better. Arob had a brutal drop. Miller has answered the call. Get him the ball. All around great team win, offense carried the defense today. Roquan was a beast, best player on the field next to Miller today. Game balls to Miller and Smith.

Bears defense is getting absolutely shredded by Blough, embarrassing. 14-7 Lions.

Now Jackson doing the same thing. Wtf this defense looks like garbage.

Defense playing like crap, busted coverages. Fuller literally covering nothing. He ran the opposite way of the receiver.

Bears score on first drive then the defense let's up a 75 yard TD pass to Golladay on a busted coverage, wonderful.

Patterson starts game with huge return after offsetting penalties. Great start, we need to keep the foot to the pedal.

Yes, yes I do. Either we are going to completely dominate or get torched by a UDFA who has never taken a snap before in an regular season game. He is the 3rd QB ever to make his first start on Thanksgiving. The other two: Kent Graham: 12-28, 42.9%, 151 yds, 60.3 QB Rating, 1 sack (1992 vs Dallas) Drew Henson: 4-12, 33.3%, 31 yds, 1 INT (Pick-6), 7.6 QB Rating, 1 sack (2004 vs Bears) So Drew Henson started for Dallas and was so bad, was pulled after the Pick-6 to McQuarters that 60-yr old Vinny Testaverde came in and pulled out the win against the hapless Bears.

They literally need to fire the entire organization before the post-game press conference tomorrow if they lose to this guy. Seriously, how bad would it get if a UDFA cast off from Cleveland, as a 3rd Stringer on a short week comes into start and outplays your franchise QB and torches your top 10 defense on national TV? Oh man, we need to completely shred this team tomorrow.

His Preseason stats: 25-43, 58.1%, 271 yds, 6.3 Y/A, 72.9 QB Rating, 2 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks Those are comparable to the likes of David Fales, Drew Lock, Josh Dobbs, and Tyree Jackson.

He was 15-29 as the Purdue QB where he led them to a bowl game against Auburn his senior year. In that game: 22-37, 59.5%, 184 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 1 Rushing TD. They lost 63-14. His rushing stats in college were funny, 264 rushes for 262 yards. Now the one thing that stands out is he had a game against Missouri where he threw for 572 yards and 3 TDs last year. So he has some potential, but who knows which QB will show up. The guy that threw for over 550 yards or the guy with a 61.0% Comp Pct, and averaged 6.8 Y/A in college with 69 TDs and 43 INT? He is also 6' and looks shorter than Drew Brees:

Oh man, if we lose tomorrow, someone has to be fired. The Lions will be starting their 3rd String QB (David Blough) on a short week:

The biggest takeaway was the receiving stats. I just thought it was interesting that not only did he have less receiving stats, but his rushing stats will also be career lows. For the receiving stats, there were several articles and interviews where the Eagles said he would be more involved in the passing game, and even Howard was interviewed and excited for his "expanded" role. It's interesting that it never happened and in some way, he has regressed from when he was with us. Don't get me wrong, I liked Howard and he was the only offense we had when we had no one, which was impressive, but in regards to the trade, I don't think it worked out too bad in the end. He will be a free agent after the year, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up next year. On another note, what about Jeffery? He also has not played since the Bears game. He is on pace for career lows outside of his rookie year for receptions and yards. He has 34 receptions and 353 yards, with 3 TDs and has missed 4 games. With the Eagles, he has never had more than 65 receptions and 843 yards (both highs last year). His best game of the season was 10 receptions for 76 yards and 1 TD. His only game with more than 7 receptions and 70 yards. That's crazy. Also, his contract makes him unmovable for the next two years: 2020 Cap hit: $15.7M, Dead Money: $26.1M (Age 30) 2021 Cap hit: $18.5M, Dead Money: $10.6M (Age 31)

It was interesting to see that Jordan Howard has not played since the Bears game several weeks ago. Also, looking at his stats, he is actually on pace for less yards per game on the ground, less targets, receptions, and receiving yards than he had with the Bears. I was actually surprised to see this. Remember, one of the big storylines for him this offseason was how he was going to be more involved in the passing game in Philly, which just hasn't happened. He will more than likely end the season with career lows in rushing attempts, yards, Y/G, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. I am assuming with this lower production that there is no way the comp pick will go from a 6th to a 5th rounder. Which makes it seem like the Bears made the right decision. Can you imagine how many negative plays he would have behind this Bears O-Line (29th)? On a side note, he only has two plays more than 20 yards, a 20 yard run and a 20 yard reception. He only has 69 receiving yards on the year and 20 came on 1 catch.

Bears now 16th in the draft order, Raiders 19th. That makes the trade our 16th for the Raiders 51st. We also have our 2nd, which is now 47th (15th in 2nd for tie-breaker rotation with 4 teams). The Raiders performance has more of an impact on our picks than the Bears so, so I would rather see the Bears win and go at least 8-8 or 9-7 (if they don't make the playoffs) and see the Raiders fall off and end no better than 8-8 (currently 5-6). That would give us two picks in the late 40s. The draft value of pick #48 is 420 pts. That would equal a later 2nd round pick #61 and a late 3rd round pick #93. I like #47 + #61 + #93 better than #47 + #48. Just because we already have a 2nd rounder, I would even consider flipping the #61 and moving back another 15 slots into the middle of the 3rd to pick up another 4th rounder. So we could pick 47th (2nd), 76th (3rd), 93rd (3rd), 108th (4th), 4th Round Comp, 5th Round. So 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, and 6 in the first 5 rounds. Not bad considering we didn't have a 1st, 3rd or 4th rounder.