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Everything posted by adam
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Check out this article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-the-bears-look-for-a-new-quarterback/ Now they only look at 1st round QBs (does that matter?), and cherrypicked QB Rating as the main stat to use. Either way, at this point, even after a bad start to this season, Trubisky is still up there in regards to QB Rating after 31 starts.
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I love Danny, and I hope we can somehow find a way to re-sign him.
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The trading deadline is on October 29th and the Bears have some tough decisions to make. They are 3-3 and I think the outcome of the Chargers game will determine which way they go at the deadline. They obviously have some needs and I could actually see them as buyers and sellers even if they win. If they lose, you have to think fire sale and clean up the cap while recouping picks. Right now they have a few candidates to be cut in the offseason to save money for next year. Those guys include Amukamara, Davis, Gabriel, Patterson, and Shaheen. They also have others who would become FA's in the offseason: Daniel, Sowell, RRH, Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Lynch, and HHCD. There are also a few others with some ugly contracts that I would attempt to move: Massie, Burton, Floyd, and Skrine. So if we become buyers, who would you like to see brought in? Our OLine is terrible. We could use some help: OLine: Trent Williams OLine: Brandon Scherff OLine: Billy Price I wonder if ATL would be willing to swap underperformers Floyd for Beasley? Edge: Vic Beasley With Smith's questionable status, do the Bears make a move for a LB? LB: Alec Ogletree LB: Preston Brown With Hicks out, the Bears could use another body on the DLine: DLine: Leonard Williams DLine: Yannick Ngakoue TE seems to be a huge need, and there are some decent options other there. Eifert should come cheap: TE: OJ Howard TE: Tyler Eifert I feel like CB is now a weakness, players playing 10 yards off and that we could use some more talent at that position: CB: Patrick Peterson CB: Williams Jackson One of the worst scenarios is if Trusbisky plays bad and we win, that would almost certainly signal a need to upgrade the QB position. Someone like Keenum or Fitzpatrick could come in immediately and pick up the offense. Rosen would be more for the future: QB: Josh Rosen QB: Case Keenum QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
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This sort of leads me to another topic, roster construction. Most of the good teams that have sustained success, draft well and have a good chunk of players on rookie deals. When those players are up for big raises, they only re-sign the elite guys and move the others before their big contract and recoup a draft pick in the process thru compensatory picks. I thought we were on the cusp of that when we lost Howard and Amos but unless we cut Davis before Week 10, we won't get any compensation in the 2020 draft. So for roster construction, you would want at least half your starters on a rookie deal (12 out of 24), offense and defense and the two kickers. For the Bears, on offense we have Trubisky, Montgomery, Miller, Daniels, and Coward on rookie deals. ARob, Gabriel, Burton, Leno, Massie, and Whitehair are all on subsequent deals. So that's 5, not bad. Pineiro is on one, that's 6. On defense we have Nichols, Floyd, Smith, and Jackson on rookie deals. Hicks, Goldman, Mack, Trevathan, Fuller, Amukamara, and HHCD are on other deals. So we have 10 of our starting 24 on rookie deals. That is ok, but anything under 10 makes for a bad cap situation. Coward masked the fact that Long is on a subsequent deal, so if you went off opening day roster, we would only have 9. Ok great, what's the so what? When teams are trending away from rookie deals, their cap is becoming harder to manage. This tells me the Bears are on the cusp of unloading some of the higher-priced guys. If we lose to the Chargers, don't be surprised if we start dumping some of the guys on one-year deals or other vets with the trading deadline on October 29th. On offense, that includes Davis, Daniel, Arob, Gabriel, Massie, Leno, Burton, Patterson, Shaheen and on defense, Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Floyd, Amukamara, Fuller, Skrine, HHCD, and Lynch. There are some other guys like RRH, Bush, McManis who could also be moved for draft picks. I started another thread about the trading deadline here:
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That is some scary stuff. I hope for him it is not that. For the team, if it was somehow related to a concussion, why wouldn't the team just put him down as "in concussion protocol"? That would quell all the rumors and would also explain his play. By not saying anything, and saying it was personal, then that makes it look like it is something completely different.
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No tinfoil hat here (maybe aluminum foil). You are right, this guy was supposed to take the keys to the defense from Danny this year. Now it's looking like another whiff by Pace and you almost have to bring back Trevathan and Kwit now because of this uncertainty. At this point, and after the game Kwit had against MIN, just give him a shot and let Smith get better (whether that's on the bench, a healthy scratch, or on IR). I don't know if we can move him, but you would have to jump at the chance to get something for him is this is how he is going to be. I doubt other teams would be interested as he is a huge wild card. If this continues, I see him just retiring from the NFL and moving on.
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Griz, This has actually crossed my mind a few times. If Trubisky has vision problems, even minor near-sightedness, that would definitely cause issues with intermediate and deep passes.
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You almost have to, the most important position on the field, and even when you think you are good, something always seems to happen (see Luck in Indy). So it would make sense to take a flyer on a guy, especially when so many other positional players in the 5th-7th don't pan out anyway. So it's not like you are wasting a pick on a guy that won't make the roster.
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Here is a list of QBs selected in the top 10 since 2010 (19). Outside of Newton, Luck, Mahomes, and maybe Wentz, do any of these other guys strike you as 15-year franchise QBs? I know you can say the same about any position or pick in the top 10, but with all the scouting and analysis, it would seem like the QB position would be one of the easier ones to assess properly. 1. Murray - Rookie year, too soon to evaluate 1. Mayfield - Seems to be way overrated and too busy with commercials 3. Darnold - Was highly touted, but in Year 2 looks just as lost as Trubisky 7. Allen - A decent mobile QB, but how much better than Tyrod Taylor is he? 10. Rosen - hard to evaluate with the brutal teams he has been on, but haven't seen much 2. Trubisky - Jury is still out in year 9, maybe he will put it together in the 2nd decade 10. Mahomes - future HoFer, if he can stay healthly, may be the best QB (statistically) ever 1. Goff - Goff feels like Trubisky with more passing yards and a better coach. 2. Wentz - Oft-injured, team won SB without him, looks average to above average. 1. Winston - He eats more INTs than W's, he has the physical traits to dominate, but can't put it all together 2. Mariota - Never lived up to billing, I feel like he has the same issues as Trubisky, mobile but can only read half the field 3. Bortles - Trubisky 1.0 with more interceptions. 1. Luck - Was a franchise QB but team hasn't dropped off much since his surprising retirement, so how good was he? 2. RGIII - Injuries killed his career, he was exciting for a few games. 8. Tannehill - Another guy killed with injuries, no relegated to backup duty or fill-in starter 1. Newton - Hopefully he can get back on track, ridiculous physical traits, can dominate the game if he wants to 8. Locker - Yeah wow 10. Gabbert - Yeah wow 2.0 1. Bradford - Injuries killed his career, but he made a boatload in this rookie deal
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That's funny. They are as close to the worst team in the league (CIN at 0-7) than the 2nd WC (HOU at 4-3) and have already played 4 home games. They would probably need to go 8-1 to make the playoffs and besides playing us, they still have GB, MIN, and KC and OAK twice. Even two losses for the rest of the year would make them a 9 win team. Weather-wise, it looks like it is going to be in the low 50's at game time and in the high 40's during warm-ups. Bear weather!
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Trubisky's comment about him trying to be a pass-first QB was telling. Why would Nagy take running away from him? If his natural instinct is to run, let him run. Even on the play he got hurt, if he wasn't forced to stay in the pocket, keep eyes down the field, he could've easily escaped and went immediately up field and slide. Instead he tried to stretch the play to the sideline to find an open receiver and got hurt. The more I re-watch the games, the more I feel like Nagy and the offensive coaches need more of the blame. I am not completely taking blame away from Trubisky, he has to be better when he has chances to make plays, but those missed plays would be reduced significantly if he was just allowed to play naturally. Also, Nagy has to stick with the run. Give Montgomery at least 20 carries, and if he only gains 60 yards and we lose, then you've made your point about the run not working. Not Cohen or the WRs, Monty needs the carries. In the last game, if you only watch Mitch's feet, it will seem like he is on a mini trampoline and then bouncing backwards and throwing off his back foot when pressure is coming. To me they are completely messing with his internal clock. He is forcing himself to stay in place longer than he normally would. The one thing you can tell they are telling him to do is be careful with the ball. Only 2 INTs in 160 passes attempts, which is great. One INT every 80 pass attempts. He also has zero fumbles. Only Wilson and Bridgewater have more passing attempts with 2 or less turnovers. Let's get back to basics. Get under center, do some play action, only a single motion to look for coverages and please don't motion defenders to the location you are going to go with the ball when there is a gaping hole there before the motion.