adam

That's awesome! BEAR DOWN!

Check out this article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-the-bears-look-for-a-new-quarterback/ Now they only look at 1st round QBs (does that matter?), and cherrypicked QB Rating as the main stat to use. Either way, at this point, even after a bad start to this season, Trubisky is still up there in regards to QB Rating after 31 starts.

I love Danny, and I hope we can somehow find a way to re-sign him.

Mongo, that's awesome. This is definitely going to be a blow out win, too much good karma right there. Congrats to your Pops!

The trading deadline is on October 29th and the Bears have some tough decisions to make. They are 3-3 and I think the outcome of the Chargers game will determine which way they go at the deadline. They obviously have some needs and I could actually see them as buyers and sellers even if they win. If they lose, you have to think fire sale and clean up the cap while recouping picks. Right now they have a few candidates to be cut in the offseason to save money for next year. Those guys include Amukamara, Davis, Gabriel, Patterson, and Shaheen. They also have others who would become FA's in the offseason: Daniel, Sowell, RRH, Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Lynch, and HHCD. There are also a few others with some ugly contracts that I would attempt to move: Massie, Burton, Floyd, and Skrine. So if we become buyers, who would you like to see brought in? Our OLine is terrible. We could use some help: OLine: Trent Williams OLine: Brandon Scherff OLine: Billy Price I wonder if ATL would be willing to swap underperformers Floyd for Beasley? Edge: Vic Beasley With Smith's questionable status, do the Bears make a move for a LB? LB: Alec Ogletree LB: Preston Brown With Hicks out, the Bears could use another body on the DLine: DLine: Leonard Williams DLine: Yannick Ngakoue TE seems to be a huge need, and there are some decent options other there. Eifert should come cheap: TE: OJ Howard TE: Tyler Eifert I feel like CB is now a weakness, players playing 10 yards off and that we could use some more talent at that position: CB: Patrick Peterson CB: Williams Jackson One of the worst scenarios is if Trusbisky plays bad and we win, that would almost certainly signal a need to upgrade the QB position. Someone like Keenum or Fitzpatrick could come in immediately and pick up the offense. Rosen would be more for the future: QB: Josh Rosen QB: Case Keenum QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick

This sort of leads me to another topic, roster construction. Most of the good teams that have sustained success, draft well and have a good chunk of players on rookie deals. When those players are up for big raises, they only re-sign the elite guys and move the others before their big contract and recoup a draft pick in the process thru compensatory picks. I thought we were on the cusp of that when we lost Howard and Amos but unless we cut Davis before Week 10, we won't get any compensation in the 2020 draft. So for roster construction, you would want at least half your starters on a rookie deal (12 out of 24), offense and defense and the two kickers. For the Bears, on offense we have Trubisky, Montgomery, Miller, Daniels, and Coward on rookie deals. ARob, Gabriel, Burton, Leno, Massie, and Whitehair are all on subsequent deals. So that's 5, not bad. Pineiro is on one, that's 6. On defense we have Nichols, Floyd, Smith, and Jackson on rookie deals. Hicks, Goldman, Mack, Trevathan, Fuller, Amukamara, and HHCD are on other deals. So we have 10 of our starting 24 on rookie deals. That is ok, but anything under 10 makes for a bad cap situation. Coward masked the fact that Long is on a subsequent deal, so if you went off opening day roster, we would only have 9. Ok great, what's the so what? When teams are trending away from rookie deals, their cap is becoming harder to manage. This tells me the Bears are on the cusp of unloading some of the higher-priced guys. If we lose to the Chargers, don't be surprised if we start dumping some of the guys on one-year deals or other vets with the trading deadline on October 29th. On offense, that includes Davis, Daniel, Arob, Gabriel, Massie, Leno, Burton, Patterson, Shaheen and on defense, Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Floyd, Amukamara, Fuller, Skrine, HHCD, and Lynch. There are some other guys like RRH, Bush, McManis who could also be moved for draft picks. I started another thread about the trading deadline here:

That is some scary stuff. I hope for him it is not that. For the team, if it was somehow related to a concussion, why wouldn't the team just put him down as "in concussion protocol"? That would quell all the rumors and would also explain his play. By not saying anything, and saying it was personal, then that makes it look like it is something completely different.

No tinfoil hat here (maybe aluminum foil). You are right, this guy was supposed to take the keys to the defense from Danny this year. Now it's looking like another whiff by Pace and you almost have to bring back Trevathan and Kwit now because of this uncertainty. At this point, and after the game Kwit had against MIN, just give him a shot and let Smith get better (whether that's on the bench, a healthy scratch, or on IR). I don't know if we can move him, but you would have to jump at the chance to get something for him is this is how he is going to be. I doubt other teams would be interested as he is a huge wild card. If this continues, I see him just retiring from the NFL and moving on.

Griz, This has actually crossed my mind a few times. If Trubisky has vision problems, even minor near-sightedness, that would definitely cause issues with intermediate and deep passes.

You almost have to, the most important position on the field, and even when you think you are good, something always seems to happen (see Luck in Indy). So it would make sense to take a flyer on a guy, especially when so many other positional players in the 5th-7th don't pan out anyway. So it's not like you are wasting a pick on a guy that won't make the roster.

Here is a list of QBs selected in the top 10 since 2010 (19). Outside of Newton, Luck, Mahomes, and maybe Wentz, do any of these other guys strike you as 15-year franchise QBs? I know you can say the same about any position or pick in the top 10, but with all the scouting and analysis, it would seem like the QB position would be one of the easier ones to assess properly. 1. Murray - Rookie year, too soon to evaluate 1. Mayfield - Seems to be way overrated and too busy with commercials 3. Darnold - Was highly touted, but in Year 2 looks just as lost as Trubisky 7. Allen - A decent mobile QB, but how much better than Tyrod Taylor is he? 10. Rosen - hard to evaluate with the brutal teams he has been on, but haven't seen much 2. Trubisky - Jury is still out in year 9, maybe he will put it together in the 2nd decade 10. Mahomes - future HoFer, if he can stay healthly, may be the best QB (statistically) ever 1. Goff - Goff feels like Trubisky with more passing yards and a better coach. 2. Wentz - Oft-injured, team won SB without him, looks average to above average. 1. Winston - He eats more INTs than W's, he has the physical traits to dominate, but can't put it all together 2. Mariota - Never lived up to billing, I feel like he has the same issues as Trubisky, mobile but can only read half the field 3. Bortles - Trubisky 1.0 with more interceptions. 1. Luck - Was a franchise QB but team hasn't dropped off much since his surprising retirement, so how good was he? 2. RGIII - Injuries killed his career, he was exciting for a few games. 8. Tannehill - Another guy killed with injuries, no relegated to backup duty or fill-in starter 1. Newton - Hopefully he can get back on track, ridiculous physical traits, can dominate the game if he wants to 8. Locker - Yeah wow 10. Gabbert - Yeah wow 2.0 1. Bradford - Injuries killed his career, but he made a boatload in this rookie deal

That's funny. They are as close to the worst team in the league (CIN at 0-7) than the 2nd WC (HOU at 4-3) and have already played 4 home games. They would probably need to go 8-1 to make the playoffs and besides playing us, they still have GB, MIN, and KC and OAK twice. Even two losses for the rest of the year would make them a 9 win team. Weather-wise, it looks like it is going to be in the low 50's at game time and in the high 40's during warm-ups. Bear weather!

Trubisky's comment about him trying to be a pass-first QB was telling. Why would Nagy take running away from him? If his natural instinct is to run, let him run. Even on the play he got hurt, if he wasn't forced to stay in the pocket, keep eyes down the field, he could've easily escaped and went immediately up field and slide. Instead he tried to stretch the play to the sideline to find an open receiver and got hurt. The more I re-watch the games, the more I feel like Nagy and the offensive coaches need more of the blame. I am not completely taking blame away from Trubisky, he has to be better when he has chances to make plays, but those missed plays would be reduced significantly if he was just allowed to play naturally. Also, Nagy has to stick with the run. Give Montgomery at least 20 carries, and if he only gains 60 yards and we lose, then you've made your point about the run not working. Not Cohen or the WRs, Monty needs the carries. In the last game, if you only watch Mitch's feet, it will seem like he is on a mini trampoline and then bouncing backwards and throwing off his back foot when pressure is coming. To me they are completely messing with his internal clock. He is forcing himself to stay in place longer than he normally would. The one thing you can tell they are telling him to do is be careful with the ball. Only 2 INTs in 160 passes attempts, which is great. One INT every 80 pass attempts. He also has zero fumbles. Only Wilson and Bridgewater have more passing attempts with 2 or less turnovers. Let's get back to basics. Get under center, do some play action, only a single motion to look for coverages and please don't motion defenders to the location you are going to go with the ball when there is a gaping hole there before the motion.

What is so weird is this is the same guy who held out to get a provision put in his contract so he wouldn't lose money if suspended for "leading with the helmet". I know mental health issues can be very random, but to go from a guy who is so adamant about one thing to just falling off the cliff is alarming, especially since there never seemed to be a hint of issues in his life before this. Normally there are signs, even if subtle. Not that it matters to anyone, but I still feel this is somehow related to the throwback uniform, and he has issues with the team promoting it, and is probably dreading the fact that this is going to come up again in a few short weeks. I could be completely wrong on this but the timing of the initial incident was too coincidental for me. If they shut him down for the season before that game or for that game, then it has to somehow be related, which is extremely unfortunate. In a macro view, I am wondering how all of this is affecting other players. Like if someone is having a bad day at work, it seems to affect those around them. I wonder if this is somehow related to the offensive struggles and defensive drop-off as well, even indirectly.

One glaring weakness in Trubisky's game is the lack of rushes. He has played in 5 games (4 full) and has 5 rushes for 21 yards. Chase Daniel has 6 rushes. Mike Davis has 9. He had 7 rushes for 32 yards against GB last year in one game. In his first 5 full games, he had 25 carries for 164 yards and 1 TD. He needs to run the ball. For QBR purposes, Trubisky has -0.9 running which is on par with Cousins, Keenum, and Winston. His overall QBR is 34.2 (50.0 is average QB). Last year Mitch had a QBR of 71.0, 3rd to only Mahomes and Brees. His Run QBR was a 22.1. Last year his passing was 43.1, this year it's down to 2.4. Dating back to last season, he has 9 straight regular season games with 251 yards or less. That is the longest streak under 300 since he started his career with 9 straight under 300. So he has never gone 10 straight games without a 300 yard game. Talk about overdue. His last game with more than 251 was when he had 355 against Detroit last year, however the 2 games before that was 135 and 220. So 1 game in his last 12 with more than 251 yards. Ouch. The only positive difference is turnovers. He doesn't have a fumble lost yet, and only has 2 INTs in 160 attempts. Daniel has 2 INTs in 60. We just need a guy that gives us 250 passing yards a game, 30 on the ground and gets at least 2 TDs a game with an INT maybe every other game. That's it, right now, he is nowhere near that. For me, he doesn't have to throw for 400 yards a game, but he definitely needs 250. I don't think that is asking for a lot.

The Chargers are 2-5, and are in worse shape than the Bears somehow. Keenan Allen DNP on Thursday due to a hamstring injury. McManis is the only Bear listed on report. Derwin James, like Hicks is out. This is a great game to get the running game going as the Chargers are 21st against the run. All of the Chargers losses (5) have been by a TD or less. I have very little faith in this team, but based on what I have seen from the news conferences and media interviews, the team finally seems to be pissed off. Hopefully, they take it out on the Chargers this week. I am predicting a dominant performance with a defensive TD. Bears roll 27-13

Yeah, something is not right. Trevathan also talked how they swapped him and Smith, so Smith is now backside LB and not the Mike. So Roquan doesn't even have to call anything anymore.

Check out the press conferences and locker room conversations the media had with the players and Nagy today: https://www.chicagobears.com/video/trubisky-we-all-know-what-we-re-capable-of Some things that stood out: 1. The players held an all-players meeting (first of it's kind under Nagy). Trubisky seemed pretty genuine and frustrated. He also hears the noise (media, fans, etc). Hopefully, that is something he can use for motivation going forward. He liked playing the underdog and no one believes in us thing last year. 2. Trubisky said "I am trying to be a pass-first guy" - this might be the most telling statement of the day. So he is clearly forcing himself not to run (against his instincts). If this is coming from the coaches, that is a mistake. Just let the kid play, clean up the footwork and see what happens. Don't completely neuter half his game, look at what Jackson is doing. It is ok to be a running QB. 3. Trevathan had an interesting comment about Smith, "he (Smith) is trying to figure it out a little bit right now". When asked about what he had to figure out, Danny stated that he was playing the "Mike" and Smith was now playing the "backside". So this makes a lot of sense from a performance perspective, Smith was out of position for a lot of plays because he was literally in a different position. I wonder if this was sort of a demotion for the whole missed game thing. If it was tied to the jersey, we will find out next month if Smith ends up with some phantom injury for the Dallas game. If it wasn't a demotion (for any reason), then why make that switch? If mental health related, are they trying to lessen the load on him mentally? A very fascinating circumstance, and whatever it is, I hope Smith can overcome it personally and professionally.

I am not writing them off yet, but it's close. My problem is what have you seen in the last year and a half that would tell you that MT is going to change? He literally is the exact same QB he was from last year. The difference is teams have figured him out completely and Nagy has become so predictable, it's sickening. Can we just stop with all the Cohen runs? Those have been the biggest killer. Patterson has at least been somewhat effective on jet sweeps. However, Cohen is is 20 for 47 yards this year with a long of 9 yards. I don't see the same player I saw last year. He has 29 receptions for 147 yards. Let's not make him the focus of the offense. I would not bench ARob. If he is open go to him, if not MT has to learn to go somewhere else.

With half the guys under 6' it looks like one too.

More like Club Dud. It is part of a culture thing and Belichick has earned the respect to act any way he wants. I don't think many younger/newer coaches would get away with the things he does (not that they're wrong). Also, I don't know if the Club Dub thing was meant to be a permanent thing until the Bears started winning so much last year. If they alternated wins and losses every other game and ended at 7-9 or 8-8, I don't think Club Dub would've lasted. Like now, if we beat LAC, it may come back, but if we lose two, then win one, I doubt Club Dub is there anymore. The beat writers were even talking about it now that you would need a pretty decisive victory to even consider it again. It would look pretty silly for a 6-10 team to celebrate when they win 6 games in 4 months.

Either way, he looked, hitched, hesitated and got sacked. This is exactly what he does on every play. He either throws to first read, or hesitates and the play is over. Once his head snapped to the left and he saw nothing there, even if he can't see Gabriel, he has to look for Miller and make the throw instantly. He is just slow to process and react. Shouldn't we see at least some improvement here? It's not like he magically figures this out overnight because there are so many other things going on (bad feet, bad hips, bad presnap reads, zero touch, poor deep ball accuracy). If you knew what you knew now, does Trubisky even get drafted?

I did not see this until this morning, the exact same play broken down on Twitter:

Monty was getting mauled by like 4 defenders. Where are all the damn blockers? I feel for that kid. Instead of not going to him again. Nagy should've gone right back to him 2-3 more times.

Without any risk of a running game or just Cohen running laterally, the defense can play all their non-rushing defenders within a range of 3-15yds which is the time it takes for their first rusher to pressure Trubisky. So without a good pocket/protection, there are very few places to go with the ball. I have seen teams rush 3 and drop 8, and still get pressure. If you are only sending 3-4 guys into routes, how the hell are you supposed to find an opening when every receiver is literally bracketed two to one? The way Trubisky was moving his feet, he was super concerned about taking a hit or landing on his left shoulder. I know on one of the sacks he landed on his throwing shoulder, so he was clearly avoiding the contact.