adam

It depends if they did surgery or not. If it was just a dislocation, then he can be back in 8-10 weeks. If there was surgery involved with any torn ligament or tendon, then he would more than likely be out until spring. Since they didn't put him on IR or IR and return, that makes me think they are looking more at 6-8 weeks. His loss is big but if we have Nichols back, that should help compensate for the loss of Hicks. I am just hoping whatever was bothering Burton, Smith, and Miller is gone. Those guys are all needed in order for us to win games. I think we match up pretty well with New Orleans, especially if Bridgewater plays. On a side note, media is already pitting NE vs SF in the SB, yet they fail to mention those two teams have played teams with a combined record of 16-44 (Bills 4-1 are the only team with a winning record to play either of those two). So there can definitely be teams at 4-1 or 3-2 that are better, but they just played a tougher schedule.

Looks like Gabriel, Nichols, and Larsen all practiced today. Trubisky threw and did not have a pitch count, so that's a good sign. Nagy didn't have much on Hicks, so I am assuming he is gone until mid-December at the earliest. Long definitely confirmed to be on IR for the season.

Hopefully they bring up Bars and try Coward at Guard. Check out this review of Coward's play against MIN when he came in at RG. He looked like the best O-Lineman immediately. Pretty impressive:

Watson was my choice and it still burns me that we didn't select him. I think Mahomes is great but so many of his plays are to wide open receivers or where the receivers make ridiculous catches. That formula seems like it will eventually dry up. I would probably take Watson over Mahomes even today. I like Watson's mobility and if he can add 5-10 lbs onto his frame and keep his quickness, he will only be that much better. Trubisky is definitely #3 in the 2017 draft, and we are going to see these comparisons ad nauseam for the next 15 years unless Trubisky improves or we get a new QB.

The offensive drop off is actually quite shocking considering what other teams have done with backup QBs (CAR, NO, etc). That tells me it's more than just Trubisky. The scary part is Pace has locked up a couple guys with huge contracts and they have yet to live up to their price tags. All we need is for our offensive players to do what they did last year with just a little improvement and this magically becomes a 10-11 win team. Right now we are so inconsistent it seems like we are headed for an 8-8 or 9-7 season and just miss the playoffs.

Yeah, I definitely didn't see anything beyond 9-7 last year. 12-4 was amazing. All I was pointing out was as much praise as Pace has received for drafting guys like EJack and Cohen, a bunch of draft picks that we held onto for a while have faded or never lived up to their draft status. I think we are just seeing a bunch of players underperforming. Even Jackson thru 5 games has done nothing impactful. He has 0 INTS, 0 Sacks, and 0 Forced Fumbles. He was due for regression to the mean, but he has goose eggs across the board. If you only knew Jackson from 2019, would you be giving him top 5 Safety money? Right now, no way. Even on something like passed defended, he had 15 in 14 games last year, thru 5 games he has 2. His counterpart, HHCD has had 2 PD and 2 INTs, a TD, and more tackles than EJack. You could say HHCD is actually playing better than EJack from that a numbers perspective. How about Fuller, he had a huge year last year. This year, QBs are completing 79.5% of passes thrown his way (up 23% from 2018). QB's have a 90.4 QB Rating throwing at Fuller. Prince has been equally soft, allowing 77.3% of passes thrown his way. QB's have a 120.6 QB Rating throwing at Prince. Those are our starting CBs. Not good. For all the flak Buster Skrine takes, he has actually been our best CB. QB's only complete 52.2% of passes thrown at Skrine with a 76.9 QB Rating. For 2020 draft, I would like to see Pace just pick BPA from a guy with a great college pedigree from a high performing school. Those guys tend to have the best chance at succeeding in the NFL.

This one has some O-Line ranks broken down by various stats: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019 PHI is 3rd in Power Runs and 1st when they run between C and G. They are also 10th in pass blocking. In comparison, the Bears are 31st in Power Runs, and are 27th or worse in 3 of 5 running areas. 66% of our runs are Mid/Guard and we are 27th in that area. Our best is off the LT, where we are 10th, but only have 8% of our runs there (which is 8 total carries for the season - so small sample size). So PHI may be more like 5-10 range, but we are still 25th or worse as a unit.

One other note, SF is 5-0, but has played some of the worst teams in the league and just played the Rams without Gurley. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat, but the media is already crowning them NFC Champs. The combined record of their opponents is 6-21 (and that's with the Rams 3-3 in there). Our opponent's record is 14-14 and we took flak for an easy schedule? The more this season plays out, the more I think we will be ok. Teams are going to start beating on each other, and our next 5 of NO, vs LAC, @PHI, vs DET, @LAR doesn't seem as tough as it looked before the season. NO w/o Brees, LAC has not looked good, PHI got de-pantsed against MIN, DET is DET, and LAR has not been the same team since we dominated them last year. If we can get our running game going and Trubisky plays efficient, we can win these next 5.

DAL lost to an 0-4 Jets; PHI got beat handily by MIN; SEA barely beat CLE, CAR beat TB, and SF dominated LAR. So it looks like we are going to be in a playoff race with every team in our division, SEA and CAR. PHI and LAR both look to be fading. I would rather see DET win and give GB their 2nd loss. That would put DET in the lead in the Division and knock GB back to a tie with MIN and CAR at 4-2. That would only put us a half game back for a WC berth and 0.75 back from DET as the Division leader. 1. SF 5-0-0 2. NO 5-1-0 3. GB 4-1-0 vs DET 4. DAL 3-3-0 WC1. SEA 5-1-0 (2-1 CONF) WC2. MIN 4-2-0 (3-2 CONF) 3. CAR 4-2-0 (2-2 CONF) 4. DET 2-1-1 (1-0-1 CONF) @GB 5. CHI 3-2-0 (2-1 CONF) 6. LAR 3-3-0 7. PHI 3-3-0

Watson vs Mahomes in KC. Watson wins the game but throws 2 INTs and 1 TD, but runs for 2 more. He ends up with a 77.5 QB Rating. Mahomes only has 54.3% Completion %, throws for 3 TDs, but also has 1 INT and 1 fumble lost. He ends up with a 96.5 QB Rating. Two of Mahomes' passes accounted for a 1/3 of his yards, so his remaining 17 completions went for 175. The biggest difference was Watson had a running game, Hyde had 26 carries for 116 yards. Neither QB had a 300-yard game, which is actually shocking based on their averages. KC has lost two straight at home; when is the last time that happened? Mahomes had a crazy throw deep into double coverage, but somehow Hill came down with it and stretched out for the TD. If Trubisky throws that, its a great catch by the receiver. If it is intercepted, it is a bonehead decision. Lol. These guys are definitely better than Trubisky, but I didn't see that many wow plays like the media makes them out to be. I don't think Trubisky is that far off these guys as long as he has some consistent O-Line play. Hopefully that comes sooner than later.

I would love to keep Trevathan, but with our current cap, the only way we could do that is if Floyd was not on the team in his 5th year option year.

Philly's O-Line is a top 5 unit and ours is bottom 5. Howard would be lucky to have 2.0 YPC behind how our line has looked thru 5 games. Just considering that huge difference, it is easy to see that Montgomery is the best back out of the bunch, followed by Howard, then Sanders.

I thank Kyle for all he has done for the organization and city, but he's done. Never seem to recover from the injuries. This is one of those additions by subtraction as anyone in place of Long will be an upgrade at this point. I wish Kyle the best and would expect him to retire. I am also glad the team made the move and didn't continue sending him out there just for the sake of it. They need to treat all underperforming guys like this, whether it's injury related or not. Don't make decisions solely based on the cap hit.

I definitely like the O-Line picks, but we will probably need either a CB or ILB earlier than a 6th. I would not draft Neal, he looked terrible against UNLV and his INTs scare me. Otherwise, it looks good to me. What do you think about Burrow (LSU) or Ehlinger (TEX)? Both have started 3 years (more than Trubisky), both should be mid-round picks, and have faced some tough competition. They faced each other earlier this year and both threw for over 400 yards and 4 TDs.

I agree, I just don't know if his AV would be high enough to warrant compensation beyond a 7th rounder, and if we pick up any FA's we may cancel out some of our comp picks like we did this year.

Skrine is at least with us thru 2020, and even in 2021 carries $3.3M in dead money. So even that would be hard to accept. For free agent comp picks, it looks like only Trevathan, RRH, and maybe HHCD will get us some compensation.

Yeah Mustipher is another sleeper. I would not mind seeing Bars, Mustipher, and Coward on the O-Line sooner than later. Long has to go, and at some point you have to think about replacing Leno and Massie if they continue with their poor play. If you can play Center, I would assume the transition to Guard would be fairly simple.

Technically he would have to sign a free agent contract with them, which is his choice. He can turn down any other offer.

Right now we sit a game back of the Packers and a half-game behind the Lions. Detroit has yet to play a divisional game, so we will see how they compare to the rest of the division starting this week. The Lions also play the Vikings and us in their next 5 games, so those games will be very important in terms of playoff chances. There are 4 non-division teams vying for a playoff spot (SEA, LAR, CAR, and PHI) as well. Packers (4-1) next 5: vs DET, vs OAK, @KC, @LAC, vs CAR Projected record after 10 games: 7-3, This is dependent on how long Adams is out. If they fall flat against DET, then have to play OAK who has a solid running game, they could easily lose 3 here. They also play 4 out of 5 teams with a winning record and a 2-3 Chargers team in LA. Lions (2-1-1) next 5: @GB, vs MIN, vs NYG, @OAK, @CHI Projected record after 10 games: 4-4-1, I give them 2 wins in the next 5 unless they beat the Pack this week without Adams. Even NYG looks a little tougher now and OAK in Cali looks a lot more challenging as well. They also play 4 out of 5 games against teams with winning records and NYG who looked pretty good against NE down 3 skill position starters. Bears (3-2) next 5: vs NO, vs LAC, @PHI, vs DET, @LAR Projected record after 10 games: 7-3, we really need to go 4-1 in our next 5 to have a shot at 11 wins. We have a very similar schedule to GB and also 4 out of 5 against teams with winning records, all in the conference and also chasing the playoffs. We need to take care of business at home and at least split the road games. We follow up this 5 with NYG, then close out with @DET, vs DAL, @GB, vs KC, and @MIN. Vikings (3-2) next 5: vs PHI, @DET, vs WAS, @KC, @DAL Projected record after 10 games: 5-5, I think they split PHI/DET, beat WAS on TNF, then lose to KC and DAL on the road. It's interesting that all 4 division teams play 4 out of 5 versus teams with winning records. This window should tell us about how we all stack up. For the other non-division leaders, SEA is 4-1 and plays @CLE, vs BAL, @ATL, vs TB, and then @SF. That's only two teams with a winning record and they play one of them (BAL) at home. So they could easily go 4-1 in this 5 and end up 8-2 after 10. CLE or TB are the only two teams that look like they could upset them at this point. They seem destined for 11 wins unless the wheels fall off. LAR is 3-2 and plays vs SF, @ATL, vs CIN, @PIT, then vs CHI. That's also only two teams with a winning record. At worst I see them at 6-4 at 10 games, but more than likely 7-3. Our game vs them in November is going to be huge for playoff chances. With their last 6, 10-11 wins seems likely. CAR has played great without Cam and gets @TB, @SF, vs TEN, @GB, and vs ATL in their next 5, again only 2 against teams with winning records. They should be able to win 3-4 of those as well and potentially be 7-3 after 10. They look like they will get 10 wins. PHI is the last team at 3-2, and they draw arguably the toughest schedule out of the group with @MIN, @DAL, @BUF, vs CHI, then vs NE. 5 games vs 5 teams with winning records. That is a brutal schedule with 3 straight road games followed by us at home. They will be lucky to win 2 of those games and will at best be 6-4 at 10, but more than likely 5-5. They finish out with SEA, MIA, NYG, WAS, DAL, NYG, so they will likely be in the 9-10 win range at the end of the season. With all that said, it is probably going to take 11 wins to guarantee a playoff spot with a bunch of teams at 10 wins. That means we need to go 8-3 in our last 11 games, so 4-1 is almost a must in our next 5.

Burton seems to be the key, and if he is not 100%, then that alone coupled with the bad O-Line play definitely doesn't help. I would like to see more of Holtz. He had a nice screen play and seems to be a good fit for the offensive style Nagy likes.

Stinger, you are correct. I think that is the frustrating part. We have been in every game, held a lead in every game and the ones we lose, we do something to lose. It's not like the other team is beating us.

Sowell can't go to the practice squad so the only way he can workout and practice with the team is to sign him then release him if anyone else needs to come up from the PS. This doesn't necessarily mean that Trubisky is good to go, because they always could cut Sowell next week and reactivate Bray from the PS again.

With the new contracts, the team is basically stuck with Leno, Massie, Whitehair, and Daniels for the next few years. Coward is a UFA after this year and if he is starting, I would assume he would command more than the league minimum. The issue is we have a ton of raises hitting next year (Mack +$15M, Leno +$7M, Goldman +$5.5M, Whitehair +$5M, Massie +$4.5M, Fuller +$4M, and Skrine +$4M to name a few. At the same time, we are potentially losing 20 free agents. Trevathan, RRH, HHCD, Lynch, Kwit, McManis, Daniel, Sowell, Bush, Scales, Larsen, Williams, Lucas, Irving, Coward, Pierre-Louis, Holtz, and Harris. The raises are over $45M (not counting Floyd) and the lost salaries from free agents is only $32M. Since we have about $19M in cap space now, just taking on all the raises and deleting all the FA cap hits would leave around $6M in cap space with a bunch of roster spots to fill. If Floyd is on the team, his 5th year option pays him over $8M more than he made this year. So at this point we would be in the negative by about $2M with 20 players to replace on the 53. The only potential moves that save space are with Long, Amukamara, Patterson, and Davis ($17M in savings). That's it. We could restructure with Hicks and Goldman and save a total of $9M more and the cap should be up $12M next year, so there is an additional $21M. So those moves would make us short 24 players on the 53 man roster with only $36M in cap space. Holy crap. Now we could rollover up to $19M from this year to next year, but that gets dangerous because it is only for one year. Just say we roll over $14M, that's $50M to sign our rookies (6 picks), any UDFAs, other FAs, resign our guys, and pay someone like Jackson. Here is a scenario, EJack gets $14M (top 5 Safety), rookie pool gets $6M, 5x UDFAs for $3M. That leaves $13M for 13 other players. That is gonna be tough, especially since we would have starter holes at CB (Prince), ILB (Trevathan), S (HHCD), and RG (Long) with key backups of QB (Daniel), DE (RRH), OLB (Lynch/Irving), ILB (Kwit), DB (McManis), LS (Scales), OL (Coward/Larsen), and DL (Williams). Since EJack does have another year left on his deal it would be better the do an extension but leave the original money in place so the 2020 cap doesn't get hit so hard. That would free up some of it, but no matter what the team is going to look a lot different next year and it will probably be the least active year in free agency that we have seen in a long time.

Some Bye Week fun, I was thinking about the Anthony Miller draft-day trade; at first when it occurred, I thought Pace had the right idea, we would get a WR a year early with the following year's WR corps looking fairly weak (even though we got Ridley in the 4th). However, now over a year removed from that decision, did Pace pick the wrong player? DJ Chark and Mark Andrews were both available when Miller was selected. What if the Bears just stayed at #105? The best skill player selected after that slot is probably SEA TE Will Dissly, so if they picked him, they would still have their 2019 2nd rounder where guys like McLaurin, Metcalf, and Hardman were still available. I know hindsight is 20/20, but I would probably take any combination of either: (A- Chark or Andrews), or (B- Dissly & McLaurin/Metcalf/Hardman) instead of Miller at this point. There is still some time left for him to get things right, but the trade-up looks worse by the day (like the Trubisky one) since we were clearly not one WR away from the SB last year. What was the urgency to move up at that point? Miller has 8 receptions for 80 yards and 0 TDs. In 20 career games, he now has 41 receptions for 503 yards. Hardly the production needed out of a 2nd rounder that you traded up to get. I think Pace got this one wrong. In the same vane, Shaheen (5.75 draft grade) at #45 is still a head-scratcher to this day. The Skill position players Pace passed on to select Shaheen will make you sick as it was a really deep skill-position draft: Mixon (5.90), Kamara (6.02), Smith-Schuster (5.86), Kupp (5.77), Godwin (5.76) all graded higher than Shaheen did at the draft, but were passed on. Kittle was also selected after Shaheen and Kittle was coming from TE U (Iowa). I know draft picks are very random, but missing on high picks like White, Shaheen, and potentially Floyd and Miller really set the team back unless they magically hit on the later picks like they did with EJack. However, outside of EJack and Nichols, is there really another late draft pick that Pace can hang is hat on? Cohen is turning more into a gimmick player, Iggy is a STer, Wims has hardly been used, Fitts is gone, Bullard, Hall, SHC are all gone. Howard is on the Eagles, and Kwit and Bush are the only ones left from the mid-late 2016 picks. Arguably the most productive player (Howard) was traded so we could trade up to draft his replacement to be less productive. From Pace's first draft, White, Grasu, and Langford are all gone, Amos was let go, and Goldman is the last man standing. So if I had to say how many "great" players Pace has drafted, Goldman and EJack are probably the only two that fit that category. I would've said Smith but with all this craziness going on, who knows where his head is right now and if he will ever fully recover. Either way, 2-3 great players in 5 drafts is not enough. It almost feels like we are seeing the effects of that now. Traded up for Miller, traded up for Floyd, up for Trubisky, up for Montgomery, and then the huge boon for Mack. I would say the only one worth it to this point has been Mack, which again is not a good trend. I hope we go into next year's draft and just pick BPA, there is no need for any more trade-ups. If anything, trade down and pick up additional picks. Hopefully, some of these guys come around and prove doubters like me wrong, but there are several guys we have been waiting years on to ultimately disappoint.