adam

-- CAUTION LONG THREAD -- I took a look at the Bears cap situation for the next few years. I keep seeing things about the Bears being in cap hell next year, and that really is not the case. The Bears don't have to pay Trubisky big bucks until his 6th year in the league, so it looks like we can keep virtually the same roster for the next 3 years without too much trouble or turnover. The media paints it like we are in dire straits after this season. With a few key guys resigned each year, we should only expect to lose 2-3 starters per year in this next 3-year window. Similar to how we lost Howard and Amos this year and replaced with Montgomery and HHCD. With that said, I looked at some of the higher priced and aging players to see where the Bears will most likely look to shed salary through cuts, trades, or free agency. Next offseason will be one of the most interesting in the next few. Mack's contract doubles and Whitehair will be a pending FA. The Bears have over $16M right now and I assume they will carry some over to next year while locking up at least Whitehair, and maybe even Jackson or Cohen before they hit their last contract year. Looking to next offseason, the top 5 salary savings could come from the following: 2020 Offseason (next yr) 1. Amukamara ($10M cap hit or $1M dead money for 2020) - saves $9M 2. Long ($9.6M cap hit or $1.5M dead money for 2020) - saves $8.1M 3. Trevathan (UFA) - saves $7.6M 4. Daniel (UFA) - saves $6M 5. Gabriel (6.5M cap hit or 2M dead money for 2020) - saves $4M That would be $35M in savings, but the team would need to replace a starting RG, CB, LB, and WR, and a backup QB. Amukamara, Trevathan, and Daniel seem to be the most likely to depart (almost $23M). Long will come down to performance and health. I threw Gabriel in there as the team seems to have signed a few guys to do what he did last year (Hall/Patterson) and drafted Ridley. $35M plus the carryover cap would easily be enough to absorb Mack's increase, extend Whitehair, and even Jackson or Cohen with room to spare. If the Bears value HHCD over any of the guys listed, there is potential to sign him as well, though that would probably push Cohen's contract extension to the next year. I have seen some concern about the cap crunch for next offseason as it looks like we are $27M over the cap for next year. That is complete BS, that counts all players signed (not top-51), doesn't take into account the annual cap increase (projected for another $10M), and assumes all current contracts will stay the same. If you take the top 51 salaries, add $10M to the cap, and carry over $6M from the cap this year, we would be under the cap with no other mods. So you can trade Whitehair's deal for Amukamara, and would then gave the remaining savings for other transactions. ---------------------------------------------------- In two years, Trubisky is on his 5th-year option, and Jackson and Cohen, if not already extended, would be due some hefty extensions. The good news is some huge contracts would be coming off the books or would be reworked to lower cap hits. Robinson and Floyd alone would save $28M and another $15M could come from Burton, Patterson, and Skrine. Again, not that we need to shed that much salary and then have to replace another starting WR, LB, TE, and CB, but we can if need be. After a repeat SB win, some of these guys may be looking for huge paydays. 2021 Offseason 1. Robinson (UFA) - saves $15M 2. Floyd (UFA) - saves $13.2M 3. Burton ($8.85M cap hit or $1.75M dead money for 2021) - saves $7.1M 4. Patterson (UFA) - saves $5.75M 5. Skrine $6.1M cap hit or $3.3M dead money for 2021) - saves $2.8M Skrine's contract is really odd, the lowest dead money is $3.3M, then it goes to no guarantee or contract after year 3. Of all the current contracts, this one is one of the most prohibitive for a non-elite player on the roster. --------------------------------------------------- I know it is crazy to think out this far (3 offseasons from now), but even with Trubisky due his $30M+ contract, only having Daniels, Miller, Nichols, and maybe Wims to resign (as potential starters) doesn't seem too bad. With annual cap increases, absorbing $20M+ of new money for Mitch in 3 years, doesn't seem like a huge problem, especially after a 3-peat. The cap increases of at least $10M per year would alone absorb Mitch's pay increase while allowing the Bears to resign the other guys to second contracts. 2022 Offseason 1. Leno (UFA) - saves $9.9M 2. Massie ($9.4M cap hit or $1.3M dead money for 2022) - saves $8.1M The Bears can restructure, extend, or let both of their bookends go. I assume they won't let both go in the same offseason, and Leno could easily be extended by then if he plays well. Massie is the most likely cap casualty at this point. --------------------------------------------------- The Bears are really in a good place cap-wise, they have the flexibility to retain pretty much every starter and key sub minus 2-3 a year for the foreseeable future while extending key contributors to long term deals.

I even think saying he is Mariota is underselling him a little, but definitely a closer comp than freaking Blake Bortles.

Here is another one: I love how he uses PFF to support his argument. Talk about cherry picking numbers. Pretty funny to look at Trubisky's first two years vs some of the current HOFers: Rodgers (first 3 seasons): 35-59, 59.3%, 329 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT Brees (first 2 seasons): 335-553, 60.5%, 3505 yds, 18 TD, 16 INT Brady (first 2 seasons): 265-416, 63.2%, 2843 yds, 18 TD, 12 INT Again, hard to pass judgment so early. Crazy to think that Trubisky is playing better going into Year 3 than all 3 of these guys were going into their 3rd years (even though not all were starters yet). I don't want to belabor the point, just interesting to see how others view Trubisky without really watching him play.

Trubisky compared to Bortles?: So what do you think?

AZ, This is my exact argument. They literally rank players with no real tangible supporting information. Is Trubisky a top 5 QB, no, but can he be? Why not? If you said he was the 8th best QB, most of his stats would back up that position. If you said top 12, same, but when you start saying he is in the bottom half of the league (16th and lower), biased views seem to come into play. Simms even said that the "arrow is pointed straight up for Trubisky in this offense" then ranks him 20th. It doesn't add up. Again, I just find it interesting that the media continues to downplay his ability but guys like Foles, Jackson, and Goff like AZ stated, and others like Mayfield and Watson are immune to the same criticism that Trubisky receives. Funny how SF doesn't take any flak for drafting like crap outside of Kittle, and paid a huge amount of money for JimmyG and have yet to see any real results. I know the injury occurred, but Trubisky didn't get a free pass from criticism for his injury which didn't seem to fully heal until the playoffs.

Grizz, The point of contention I have is that there is a clear media biased against Trubisky regardless of how well he plays. Simms said he was the 20th best QB going into this season, and there literally is nothing that supports that position. PFF ranks him low, and as you can see by the rankings, USA Today is completely out of whack as well. There are a million ways to "rank" the players. Just take this scenario for example with the couple of guys in front of him on Simms list. If you had to pick Trubisky or any of the guys from 15-19 for performance in 2019, who would you pick? Goff looked like crap without Gurley and with Kupp coming back from the knee injury, I can't see Goff outproducing Trubisky this year, especially if Trubisky improves even just a little bit. How about Carr? There is potential for a complete train wreck in Oakland and he wasn't that good to begin with. Mayfield, maybe, but his numbers were worse than Trubisky's last year. Foles in Jacksonville? This guy has never played even average outside of Philly, so nothing would point to him doing that in Jacksonville who is devoid of talent on the offense. Then Cousins, you could make a case for Cousins just because of his receivers, but straight up, with all things equal Trubisky should have the edge. Here is some info about QBR: https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating Everyone is entitled to their opinion and all the rankings are subjective, I get that, but there seems to be a consensus hate on Trubisky in the national media for whatever reason. He can't help that the Bears traded up to draft him, and he was picked before Mahomes. Nothing you can do about that now, and he shouldn't be penalized for it. I just think it is a fascinating phenomenon.

To me, it is getting to the point of insanity. They are now widely quoted and linked to support an argument where all the traditional data doesn't even support the same position. If they match the consensus, they are not needed, so they decided to make a metric that is controversial at best. I would love for them to make predictions, like most of the analytics guys did for hockey, and then we can show they were wrong. All they do is rank how they think someone did, with no ties to future performance, which is the point of analytics in the first place. If they can't be predictive, there is no need for them. By pretty much every metric known to man, Trubisky improved in 2018 and had a very solid season with the needle pointing to an even better year this year. If you look at PFF, he is literally a game manager who runs, and is a liability to the team at QB.

Stinger, post the link so I can hop on that thread. Sounds fun. Outside of PFF, HHCD is a better overall safety. Is he better than Amos at everything? No, but the things he is better at are more important to the team at the price point we got him for. Also, how much worse is Amos going to look at the lead Safety on that team? He played with several All-Pros and Pro Bowlers.

There are not 19 QB's better than Trubisky, come on, that is BS. At worst, he is 15, at best probably top 5. Here is his listing with the top 14 order not announced yet: 32 - Rosen 31 - Brissett (backup in Indy) 30 - Jackson (too low for me) 29 - Mariota (too low for me) 28 - Keenum 27 - Winston (too low for me) 26 - Dalton 25 - Flacco 24 - Murray 23 - Allen 22 - Darnold 21 - Garoppolo 20 - Trubisky 19 - Goff 18 - Carr 17 - Mayfield 16 - Foles 15 - Cousins 1-14: Mahomes, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Luck, Ryan, Wilson, Wentz, Watson, Newton, Prescott, Stafford, Rodgers 2018 QBR Rankings 1. Mahomes - 82.8 2. Brees - 80.8 3. Trubisky - 73.0 4. Roethlisberger - 71.7 5. Luck - 71.7 6. Brady - 70.5 7. Rivers - 70.0 8. Winston - 68.3 9. Ryan - 67.9 10. Goff - 65.9 So Trubisky had the 3rd highest QBR in the NFL on a 12-4 playoff team, yet he is the 20th best QB in the league going into this season with a better offense around him and the 2nd year in the same offense? That doesn't add up. Just based on sheer age, guys like Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Rivers can fall off the cliff at any time. Wentz and Newton are coming back from injuries, and Stafford and Prescott always seem overrated to me. Watson has barely done any more than Trubisky has and still has injury concerns. That leaves Mahomes, Brees, Luck, Wilson, and Rodgers. Also, no way is Mayfield, Foles (in Jax), Cousins or Goff better than Trubisky.

Very cool. It's amazing that they were working the phones and social engineering Oakland into the deal. "Yeah you don't want that headache, he will cost too much, and we will be bad for several years, so you will get a bunch of top 10 picks".

Yeah no worries, after looking at the stats, I figured the Rams game is what you were talking about. Don't get me wrong or take this the wrong way. Good players help other players and make them better. ARob absolutely will help Trubisky, but I don't think he is quite at the level that Hopkins is at in the league, especially last year when he was still recovering from his injury. If Hopkins or a player at that level was on the Bears, they would be doing the same thing for Trubisky. Your example is exactly what I am talking about. Hopkins made up 37% of Watson's yardage, while ARob only made up 23% of Trubisky's. That is a huge difference. 2800 of Mahomes' yards went to Hill and Kelce. Plug in 2x 800-yard receivers instead and he throws for only 3800. Still really good, but no way is he an MVP candidate. Also, guys like Hopkins not only help on his own receptions, but they draw double coverage or at least the shading of coverage. That is incredibly important for a QB to see pre-snap. I am a huge Watson fan and wanted the Bears to draft him. I just think that some of these other QB's have been aided by HoF level players. Watson has Hopkins, Mahomes has Hill and Kelce, and Goff has Gurley. That is a ton of production from one or two players. We saw what Goff and the Rams looked like without Gurley. That doesn't mean that any of them are bad players, but they definitely provide some easier options. It will interesting to see how Mahomes does without Hill (if he is suspended). Just watch some Hopkins highlights, he makes some crazy catches, or is wide open. Either way, the QB looks great.

Trubisky threw for 303 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs in the playoffs last year. Where are you getting 3 picks from? Both Philly and Houston have great defenses, Philly had a top 5 Defense in 2017 and Houston has had a top 10 defense since Watt joined the team. Watson's stats are better than Trubisky's (400 more passing yards, 14 more TDs, 2 less INTs, but Watson has been throwing to DeAndre Hopkins for 2 years. Those are some easy stats. The jury's still out on Trubisky, but to me, the arrow is pointing up.

So if traditional metrics work, then why even have some subjective secret formula that re-orders players based on something different? Amos is a great example. How would they know his assignment pre-snap and then determine if he did his job. He could've lined up in the wrong spot, didn't take a guy that was released, etc. Way too many variables to grade plays against what they think was supposed to happen. Check out this knucklehead (Sam Monson?) defending his position that ARob was basically the only reason Trubisky looked good (after saying Trubisky was worse in 2018 than in 2017). Then when he was called on the BS, he literally contradicted himself again:

I still don't get it. Goff had similar numbers but never took the abuse that Trubisky has taken and Goff was the #1 pick. Watson could do no wrong, Mayfield is apparently a perennial Pro-Bowler, and Wentz is the 2nd coming. The only take that is fair is that the Bears would have been better off taking Mahomes at #3. That's it. That is a fair statement, but you could also say every team had the ability to draft Mahomes (either by picking or trading up) and only KC thought it was a good value at that time. Why can't multiple players be good? I agree that PFF is not very accurate for the most part, so I quite don't understand the support they get, both in the media and financially. How could you possibly know if an incomplete pass was the QB's or WR's fault if you don't know the play call, route, timing, etc? That baffles me to this day.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-what-the-advanced-analytics-say-about-mitchell-trubiksy I really don't get all the national hate for Trubisky. He is a nice kid, says the right things, isn't overly cocky or arrogant, and has played pretty damn well considering the circumstances (Fox/Loggains era). I find it funny when people compare him to Rodgers, Stafford, Cousins, etc. All vets. The funny thing is to check out their stats before they were all 25. Before his 25-yr old season, Cousins played in 3 games, started 1 game, and had a total of 4 TDs, 3 INTs and 466 passing yards. In his first two years, he was 1-3, with 8 TD, 10 INT and 1320 passing yards. Stafford played a lot more before 25, but did basically nothing his first two years in the league, starting 13 games (3-10 record) with 19 TDs and 21 INTs with 2802 yds passing. Rodgers did not play his first 3 years, which is basically impossible nowadays, and did not have any stats before his 25-yr old season. Trubisky has now started 26 games in his first two years, more than what Cousins, Stafford, and Rodgers did combined in their first two years. Trubisky's first two years: 31 TDs, 19 INT, 5416 yds, 15-11 record, 1x Pro-Bowl Rodgers/Stafford/Cousins first two-year totals (6 cumulative years): 27 TDs, 31 INT, 4122 yds, 4-13 record. Then I look at Goff, he went 0-7 in 2016 with only 1089 yds passing (5 TD to 7 INT), then improved to 11-4 with 3804 yds (28 TD and 7 INT) in 2018 before posting career highs with 4688 yds, 32 TDs and 12 INTs last year. The crazy thing for me is that I didn't think Goff looked that good. Yet he was always putting up big numbers with Kupp and Gurley having big games. It is hard for me to not see Trubisky on that same trajectory. He had 2193 yards in his rookie year, 3223 yds last year, so it would not surprise me if he had over 4500 yds this year. His TDs went from 7 to 24, so they should go into the mid 30's this year. INTs went from 7 to 12, so they will probably be in the high teens this year. If he does that, it will be hard for them to argue with his success. Btw, PFF's grades are way too random. They should just say better than average, average, or below average. Even then, Trubisky would be below average in their eyes. Very weird.

Duct tape it and get back out there!

I thought they did announce it? However, I believe it was some sort of accident, or not something football related, that's why it looked questionable. Either way, as long as he is 100% for Week 1, I don't really care about this anymore. It could've been a lingering issue that he was keeping away from the team.

People also forget that Robinson didn't have an offseason with Trubisky last year. We really saw what they could do together against Philly. By the way, Trubisky and Robinson are both only 25. We could have a decade of what Trubisky called "The Dynamic Duo". Also, go watch the last drive of the Philly game before the double doink. Trubisky was locked in. If he plays close to that level, it's hard not to expect a decent bump across the board. It will also be interesting to see how the offense looks with Montgomery vs Howard. I really think Trubisky is going to explode on the league this year and will break the Bears single-season numbers for yards (Kramer-3838) , TDs (Kramer-29), and completions (Cutler-370). He needs 4,282 yards to tie Ed Brown for 6th all-time in Bears history, and would be close to 2nd all-time (Sid Luckman) with 2x back to back 4k passing seasons.

5 players currently 30 or over: 30 - Kyle Long, Buster Skrine 31 - Ted Larsen, Sherrick McManis 32 - Chase Daniel

Singletary and Urlacher should be higher, over Covert, Hampton, and Fortmann. Yeah, Cutler should be top 25 easily, that is a vote on his attitude.

I am thinking Anthony Miller, if you can consider him a breakout candidate. He had only 33 receptions last year, playing with basically one arm (shoulder), but also had 7 TDs. That is a TD every 5 catches. If he gets into the 60 reception range, that could easily be 12+ TDs. I really think he becomes the go-to receiver for Trubisky. On defense, I am thinking Bilal Nichols. With Goldman, Hicks, Mack, and Floyd getting the attention, Nichols can really make an impact in the trenches.

The Mizzell stuff is baffling. Why keep him on the roster and take reps away from other players that might make the roster? Does he have nude pictures of Pace or something? Sowell is actually a good receiver, so this makes sense because there is now nothing stopping him from just lining up as a TE (without reporting) and going out into a route. Actually a pretty slick move. There seems to be some very clever things you can pull off with this type of flexibility. I could also see him blocking at first then peeling off for some easy catches on some delayed screens.

I forgot the quote, but Nagy and Mitch both have said in interviews that the offense is light years ahead of where it was at last year at this time. With so many returning players, I have to imagine a huge jump in performance for Mitch this year. Mitch's progress reminds me of some military schooling I had to do a long time ago. We had 7 minutes to wake up, make bunk, align shoes, brush teeth, shave, clean designated common area, and get to formation in 7 minutes. It was impossible to do at first and we got smoked for hours on end for what felt like an eternity. However, after repeating this over and over after about a month I would get it done in 5 and easily be in formation ready to go with time to spare. I feel like Mitch had to do that while also learning a new language on the fly. Now with the basics out of the way, he can really walk up to the line and feel confident and comfortable on what he is seeing, make necessary adjustments and know his progressions and where is outlet is at. The game is really going to slow down for him.

I would've broken the list down between offense and defense. The last Bear to win either award was Anthony Thomas in 2001 a year after Ulracher won the DROY award. Montgomery has the skills to win it, but I don't think he will get enough touches or percentage of the production (like Barkley) to win the award.

Horsted makes a ton of contested catches. He rarely gets separation, but he seems to catch everything.