adam

We needed him to sign with another team to maintain the Callahan compensation. Since we didn't lose him, we don't get that benefit. There is a Twitter thread about it.

I like this re-signing even if we lose a comp pick now (for Callahan). This fills a void at OLB3 and allows the team to focus te draft in other need areas. A crazy fact, Lynch is younger than Floyd and Mack. If Lynch can stay healthy, he is very productive when he plays.

With 10 picks in 2020, there is some potential to move up this year or even trade into a pick using 2020 picks, especially in the 4th-7th.

Just a thought, if Howard played another season and walked, at most he would return a 5th rounder in 2021. With this trade, the Bears get a 6th (and potentially a 5th) a year earlier, which has the same value and could potentially be worth more than the comp pick in 2021. So from a draft value perspective, this is not a bad deal.

Oh don't get me wrong, there were too many 1-yd runs this season. His YPG was terrible and he really wasn't a clean fit for the offense. I understand the trade, but the timing is odd for a 2020 draft pick IMO. Like I said before, if he signs any type of league average deal next season with a new team, Philly gets their pick back in 2021.

6th rounder in 2020 = a 7th rounder this year. What the hell? This was a bad move IMO. There was no need to do this now if it wasn't a 2019 draft pick. There are so many injuries in the preseason that we could've gotten more for him at that point for a RB needy team. Head scratcher for me. I know he wasn't great, but how many RB's are his age averaging 1100 yards get traded for 6th round pick in next year's draft? To me he was at least worth what we drafted him at, a 5th rounder this year, or a 4th rounder next year. This has to be a Nagy-Pederson deal where they "owe" us later. If we let Howard walk after his 4th year, and he signed for any decent deal after, we would've had a comparable comp pick. Now Philly can do that, and basically get their pick back or better.

When I watch some of the Bears games from 2018, I keep seeing Amos missing a tackle or blowing a coverage on a bunch of TDs. I am going to have to go back now and look at each opponent TD and see if there is something there. Also, HHCD was in coverage a lot more than Amos ever was, so I don't know how relevant Amos' stats are for coverage. To me, using something like WAR or AV. Using AV from Pro-Football-Reference, Amos has had the following seasons of AV:6,5,4,6 (5.25), while HHCD has had the following: 4,7,9,5,6 (6.2). HHCD averages a point more per season and had two seasons better than Amos' best while playing on a much worse defense. Very hard to argue that Amos is better other than stopping the run (or in the box), but with the way the league is going, having safeties with coverage skills seems like it is becoming more of a necessity. We will see, but I still believe Jackson+HHCD will be better than Jackson+Amos.

What a way to open the season. Most of us assumed that we would open up playing the Pack, but I didn't expect to open the entire NFL season on Thursday against them. What more could you want? The Bears are not going to allow what happened last year in Week 1 occur again. Another minor benefit, a couple of extra days off for Week 2. One time where a Thursday game is not a short week.

To hit on that many free agents (Robinson, Gabriel, Burton), draft picks (Smith, Daniels, Miller, Nichols) and trade (Mack) while also hiring the Coach of the Year, matching Fuller offer and letting Meredith walk all in one offseason is pretty remarkable. However, how much influence does the coach have in these decisions? This was following the year where he drafted Trubisky, Cohen, and Jackson (great) but missed on a ton of free agents (bad). Crazy what a year can make. I guess for every Cohen, we will have to live with a Shaheen, for every White, a Smith. Remember the 2017 free agents: Glennon, Sanchez, Demps, Sims, Amukamara, Cooper, Wheaton, Wright, Jenkins, Cunningham. Only Amukamara remains on the roster. I like the pieces that we have added, and I remember what we were saying in August (What the hell are the Bears going to do opposite of Floyd?) and somehow Mack fell in our laps. However, I don't know if we can continue to wait for something like that to happen again. In the end, the roster is his responsibility, and he has built a good one with some cap flexibility going into the season.

I don't think it is bad luck: Robbie Gould w/ POD- 42-51 82.3%, w/o- 316-357 88.5% Connor Barth w/POD- 29-39, 74.3%, w/o- 139-164 84.8% Cody Parkey w/POD- 23-30 76.7%, w/o- 76-88, 86.4% Gould's is hilarious, he had one season below 83% for FG% (his rookie year) before POD was on the team and the first year with POD he has a career low in FG% at 75% and also missed an XP. That was technically his worst year of his career. He followed that up with 2 misses from inside 39 yds and a missed XP in his last year as a Bear in 2015. Once he left the Bears and had a new holder, he magically returned to form and has only missed 10 total kicks of any variety in the last 3 seasons. So his dip in performance was literally the two years that POD was his holder. Barth came in with a decent percentage, then mysteriously couldn't hit the side of a barn while he was on the team. Parkey, even though he jumped around, still had a decent kicking percentage overall, then he comes to Chicago with POD as the holder and can only hit uprights. Some say it is kicking in Chicago, well someone on Twitter did the work: POD kickers- 81.8% on road, opponents on road- 92.5% POD kickers- 75% at Soldier Field, opponents at Soldier Field- 87.5% So even though our kickers should kick better than visiting players, they didn't with POD as the holder.

Only if Houston had a connection to our team.............

Yeah, a UDFA would've cost a fraction of that. 2M per year seems steep for his performance and potential. The one common between all the Bears recent kickers is O'Donnell holding for them. His mediocre punting cost us field position and he shit the bed against the Eagles. Why pay 2M per year for 37-yd punts?

Here are his picks: 3rd round, No. 87 — RB Miles Sanders, Penn State (5-11, 211) 4th round, No. 126 — WR/TE Miles Boykin, Notre Dame (6-4, 220) 5th round, No. 162 — CB Derrick Baity, Kentucky (6-1, 197) 7th round, No. 222 (from Broncos through Eagles) — S D’Cota Dixon, Wisconsin (5-10, 204) 7th round, No. 238 — K Matt Gay, Utah (6-0, 232) https://wgnradio.com/2019/03/18/hoge-2019-bears-mock-draft-2-0/ What do you think?

I got it, I understand the theory, but Skrine just hasn't really produced anywhere he went. It could be that he played on bad teams, but good players normally stand out on bad teams and he didn't do that anywhere he played. I don't know how much more aggressive Pagano will be than Bowles or Cleveland when Skrine was there, but no matter how he was used, he was near the bottom of the league in every category for a CB. He had one above average year, his last in Cleveland, then signed a big deal (for that time) with NY. If he plays well, Pace will look like a genius, but if he is the same guy he has been for the last 8 years, this will be a head scratcher for sure. Also, he turns 30 next month, a few months before Prince. So we will have 2 of our top 3 CB's over 30. To me it seems like drafting a CB early is almost a guarantee. Someone had a great description of him, a more athletic Amukamara with worse technique.

The media speculates that the Bears had an offer on the table for more than Skrine's but Callahan's camp believed he was worth more. The Bears did not want to wait and miss out, so they moved quickly to sign Skrine. Then Callahan did not get any offers near his asking price and had to settle at $7M AAV with the Broncos. There is a good chance that the Bears offered him that number originally and he turned it down.

1. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix - (A-). There are so many layers to this as it ends up essentially being a trade that will give the Bears HHCD and more than likely a comp pick while Packers get Amos and the Redskins 4th rounder. The more I watch HHCD, the more I see why the Bears went after him. I don't know if you can get a better Safety for that price ($3.5M). I outlined most of that in the other thread, and there is the added bonus and motivation of playing alongside his buddy in Jackson. Also, HHCD is only 4 months older than Amos and has never missed a game in his career. 2. Cordarrelle Patterson - (B+). Not much more you can do here. Add one of the best returners to a weak Special Teams unit and a versatile player that adds to Nagy's lab. It will be exciting to see how they use him. Patterson is 28, so he still has tread on those tires. What does a defense do with Patterson, Cohen, and Gabriel are out there at the same time. You throw in Robinson and someone like Davis or Burton, and it seems like there will be some formations that will be indefensible. Mitch is going to need to know where to go with the ball. 3. Mike Davis - (B). An above average runner and receiver who is elusive with soft hands. Hard to not like this move. He rarely goes down on first contact. His DVOA was 11th best in the league (net positive), while Howard was 36th (net negative). You can see that here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb 4. Ted Larsen - (C). Older vet who has experience with the team. Depth move, replaces Kush. Such a low contract, very little risk here if he doesn't pan out, it is easy to cut him. 5. Marvin Hall - (C). Another bottom of the roster pickup who may not even make the 53-man. Pace starting to throw some darts, but with Gabriel, Patterson, and Cohen, it is hard to see where Hall would get touches outside of some ST play. 6. Buster Skrine - (D+). Of all the picks, this one has me the most concerned. There is enough tape on Skrine to know who he is, yet the team went against the consensus to believe Skrine was worthy of a contract. Skrine has one of the worst passer ratings against for a CB in the NFL and has been a perennial on this list. Hopefully, the Bears defense will make him better and Skrine will outperform his career averages. Otherwise, he will be targeted a lot. Grades = (Fit, price, upgrade) Overall - I would give this current free agency period a solid B at this point. Pace replaced Amos and Callahan, our two biggest starters, and added some versatile pieces in Patterson and Davis. We still have some minor depth needs at Edge, TE, and Special Teams still needs to be addressed. Obviously, the kicking situation needs to be worked out. I am glad that Pace did not hand out any huge deals, the combined total of all those FA's cap hits for 2019 is around $15M, that's pretty sweet. He also has something else up his sleeve with all the other contract mods where he has created over $18M in cap space. So even with the rookie pool, there is space to add a few more pieces or one big signing.

Gabriel is probably pissed, because Patterson will probably take some of his Jet Sweep snaps.

Watching those highlights, if you didn't know it, he would seem like an RB1. He follows his blocks, finds the hole, knows when to cut back and is way more elusive than Howard. There are some great examples, but look at 2:34 on the YouTube video in AZ's post, he completely de-cleated Sean Lee and then made another move to make it to the first down sticks. I have never seen Howard do anything close to that. If they keep Howard, I see it being a true RBBC, between Howard, Davis, and Cohen with a sprinkling of Patterson for good measure.

The more tape I watch, the more I like HHDC. He seems to be more of a hybrid Safety, almost half Jackson, half Amos (Jackmos?). The way the league is going, there is less of a need for a one trick pony thumper in the secondary like Amos. Amos was slightly above league average while HHCD was a 2nd team All-Pro and Pro-Bowler. If you compare the two situations, you can clearly see who is going to be motivated, one guy leaves a playoff team as a free agent, then signs a massive contract. The other guy is traded from his original team mid-season, then takes less money to join an ascending team. If we play the Pack Week 1, I guarantee HHDC is going to come to play with some added motivation. It will be interesting to see how Amos looks in the GB defense. Some interesting notes: 1. Even though HHCD was drafted a year before Amos, he is only 4 months older than him. 2. HHCD has never missed a game (5x seasons of 16 games played) 3. Amos career numbers for impactful plays: (3 INT, 3 FF, 2 sacks, 18 PD) compared to HHCD: (14 INT, 4 FF, 5.5 sacks, 28 PD) 4. Tackle totals were mind-boggling, Amos averages 4.5 tackles a game (269 total for career) while HHCD averages 5.7 a game (456 career). That might not seem like a lot but that is telling. HHCD is around the ball more than Amos ever was. Going a little further, Amos had his best year this year in terms of tackles with 73, his first season above 70. HHCD's low is 79 (twice) and he broke 100 twice. That is what those averages look like played out for a season. To me, this is a clear upgrade at Safety. HHCD, though not necessarily known as the big hitter like Amos, is better in coverage, has better playmaking skills, and makes tackles.

Pace seems reluctant to give players with injury history new deals. White, Meredith, and now Callahan. I don't mind this thinking, but it should never be all or none. So the debate will be Callahan for $7 vs Skrine for $5.5.

He saw what Amos got after playing on the Bears D, just think what he will get next offseason if he plays well.

Yeah, and the more I watch tape on him, compared to Amos, he seems like the better overall playmaker. To me, he was on a bad defense (GB) and then on a new team, and still played decently. Imagine him on the Bears next to Jackson and playing with/behind Prince and Kyle. It's hard not to think he will be better on the Bears. Hard to say that about Amos on that defense.

$9.25 AAV for Amos vs $3.5 AAV for Clinton-Dix, even for just a single year seems like a steal to me. You also have to believe that even if Amos is individually better than Clinton-Dix (debatable), that Clinton-Dix grouped with Jackson will be better than Amos/Jackson.

I love this signing, instant upgrade to Special Teams and can take the top off the defense. He will replace Bellamy, White production.

You called it, Patterson is a Bear. He will be lethal in this offense and we get a plus returner.