adam

Great first half, 14-3 lead. Defense doing what they always do, and offense actually moving the ball. Trubisky looks much better this week, 14/20, 174 yds, 1 TD pass.

Here we go, biggest game in a loonnnngggggg time. The NFC North title, a playoff berth, double-digit wins, a guaranteed winning record in the division, and potentially knocking GB out of the playoffs, and at Soldier Field. It doesn't get much better than this!

There is over $20M tied up in White, Sims, Massie, and Acho, and most of that could come off the books after this year. Even if Trubisky's cap hit jumps to $25M in his 5th year, the $20M would easily cover the difference in his pay bump without impacting other parts of the roster. If Long is still dealing with injuries after next season, cutting him would save another $8M and $2M for Parkey. They also project the cap to go up around $10-12M per year, from $177M this year to $187-191M next year, and another $10M to $200M by 2020: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000998860/article/nfl-salary-cap-for-2019-projected-at-187m1911m Just that $10M bump would allow us to re-sign Amos/Callahan without any impacts to the cap/roster this year. For me the biggest dead weight on the roster is White with Sims a close second. Long might fall in that category if he can't stay healthy, even though when he plays, he is worth it. Massie and Acho are getting up there to where it would be hard to justify keeping them around for their salaries. So the way I see it, we will be able to keep the core group of players intact for another 3 years without cap issues, 2021-2022 seems like it will be the point where they will have to make some tough decisions.

I just averaged the 3 together, but can easily do a rolling average for the same values. It will just smooth out some of the spikes.

I took a look at Trubisky's numbers from all his starts in his career, averaged every 3 games together to see if there were any obvious trends (see pic below): So since his first 3 starts (T1) in 2017, he is basically trending upwards in every statistical category. That is the good news. However, Since Week 6 of this season, he has dropped in every major statistical category and has had a steep drop off in the last two weeks. If he can get back to even just career averages, we are a deep playoff team. If he can play near his best, we have as good of a shot at a Super Bowl this year as any other team.

Interesting to see the Bears as the 2nd most likely win only behind Baltimore over TB. The line also slide to -6 from opening - 4.5. Most people, including myself, harps on the need for the offense to be better, and it definitely does. However, the Bears record is solely based on the opponent's points scored. We are 9-0 when we allow 22 or less and 0-4 when the opponent scores 24 or more. Now the offense and special teams need to do their parts and not give up any points. If they don't (pick-6, safety, return TD, etc), we won't lose another game.

I broke a bone in my foot and chipped the end of my fibula running, and was not able to run for 6 weeks.

If the Vikings win 2 of 3, they are 8-7-1, which would require any of the teams below them to go 9-7 to beat them (or win out). That seems really unlikely based on how they have played recently and their schedules. The best way for us to have a chance at knocking the Vikings out is if they go 1-1 before playing us and we beat them to finish 7-8-1, and one of CAR, PHI/WAS go 2-1 to finish 8-8 and face us in the 1st round. You ask how NO and LAR look vulnerable? Just watch the DET/LAR game and the NO games against TB and DAL. The Saints are 1-1 in their last two games against TB and DAL, and their total offense the last 3 games has been 298 yds, 176 yds, 312 yds with Brees not topping 201 passing yards in the last 3 games (w/ an INT in every game). They don't look like the same team and the numbers say the same. If you group games together, they are playing their worst football right now, which doesn't normally bode well for the remainder of the season/postseason. For the Rams, it's very similar. They had a bye in Week 12 and look like a totally different team the last two weeks against DET and us. They beat DET, but Goff looked like crap in both games. The Rams had their worst two games the last two weeks and are trending in the wrong direction. Now they play Philly, who needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt. After that game, it gets easier for them with a game in Arizona and then against SF. Both of those are Division games, so those are always tough.

With 3 weeks left, we are in a great spot. NO and LAR both look vulnerable. MIN looked horrible as well. 1. NO 11-2 (@CAR, vs PIT, vs CAR) 2. LAR 11-2 (vs PHI, @ARZ, vs SF) 3. CHI 9-4 (vs GB, @SF, @MIN) 4. DAL 8-5 (@IND, vs TB, @NYG) ------------ 5. SEA 8-5 (@SF, vs KC, vs ARZ) 6. MIN 6-6-1 (vs MIA, @DET, vs CHI) ------------ 7. CAR 6-7 (vs NO, vs ATL, @NO) 8. PHI 6-7 (@LAR, vs HOU, @WAS) 9. WAS 6-7 (@JAX, @TEN, vs PHI) 10. GB 5-7-1 (@CHI, @NYJ, vs DET) Scenarios: 1. 1-win, 10-6, Division winner, 4th seed, more than likely get SEA at home WC weekend. Dallas would have the tiebreaker over us if we both finish at 10-6. 2. 2-wins, 11-5, Division winner, 3rd seed, would play the 6th seed (MIN/CAR/PHI/WAS) at home, then 2nd seed (LAR) in LA 3. 3-wins, 12-4, Division winner, a chance at the 2nd seed if either NO or LAR lose 2 of 3. If we tie LAR or NO at 12-4, we would win the Conference tie breaker. 4. 0 wins, 9-7, Division winner if Minnesota loses at least one game. If MIN wins 3 and we lose 3, MIN wins Division, we slide to WC#2 (w/ at least one loss each from CAR, PHI, and WAS who could do no better than 8-8. WAS and PHI play each other, so there is one loss, and I can't see CAR beating NO twice. So even without another win, it looks like we would still make the playoffs. WC#2 would play in Dallas in this scenario. So right now we have a slim chance at a bye, will more than likely play at home WC. the #3 seed is the most probable. An interesting dilemma may present itself in Week 17. We might be locked into the 3 or 4 seed and could use Week 17 to give ourselves a bye. In doing so, we could allow MIN into the playoffs (if they win out).

The Bears have a chance to win the Division, while knocking GB out of playoff contention, in front of their home crowd, it doesn't get much better than this. It should be one of those "passing the torch" type of games with a win. We need to stay ahead of Dallas and depending on if LAR or NO tank, we have an outside shot at a bye. GB is 2-5 since their bye and has fired McCarthy. They are 1-0 without him beating a hapless Falcons team 34-20. They do have an easy schedule after us (NYJ and DET), so there is still a sliver of hope if they somehow beat us and win out, which would put them at 8-7-1. The good thing is they can't pass us regardless of the outcome of the rest of the season. We really need to make it a hostile environment for Rodgers with the crowd playing as the 12th man. Rodgers has a consecutive passing attempt streak without an interception, and we lead the league with (25), basically 2 per game. Something has to give. I think the Bears get one. I am hoping for an improved Trubisky and the same defensive intensity as we saw against the Rams. This will be a good measuring stick to see how much Trubisky has improved from Week 1. Bears 31-17

One cool note, some of my Army buddies messaged me this morning from all over the world praising the Bears defense. The consensus is no one will want to face us in the playoffs. I agree with them.

Huge win, for such a low scoring game, I thought it was still very exciting and entertaining. I loved that we got the running game going and essentially neutered a potential MVP candidate in Donald and completely shutout an OPOY in Gurley. Hats off to the coaches and the lines. We won in the trenches. It's nice to see the defense make the plays they have been missing the last few years. Fuller and Mack are earning every penny of their contracts and based on their post game interviews are doing it very humbly. I love that the team is having fun, that becomes infectious. The score shows a 9 pt win but that's a 12 pt win with the spread and felt like it. Even with the Trubisky mistakes, I never felt like we were at risk of losing the game. Trubisky was clearly rusty. He had a terrible game and will have to be better if we expect to have any success into January. The good thing is he knows it. Of the 3 INTs, which all were pretty bad, the two overthrows looked like a guy overcompensating for a tight shoulder. Hopefully this is a one and done thing. All we need with this defense is a slightly better QB than we had in Cutler and Trubisky has shown he can be that. I don't know what the game plan was but there weren't that many quick hitting pass plays. From previous games like the MIN game, Trubisky and the offense seemed to be more in sync in the hurry up. After seeing "Santa's Sleigh", I wondering if Nagy is purposely running a new playbook every week and is not giving other teams any tape on what we will do next. Then come the playoffs, he will unleash exotic and unexpected plays that won't be easily defended without prior knowledge. That's my hope and it seems to be somewhat credible. All in all, a great game and recipe for a long extended playoff run, defense and the run game. If Trubisky can limit turnovers, we will be a difficult team to beat.

Sorry not to get the thread posted, currently on business travel. I am glad that Trubisky is back to 100%. The key to the defense will be to limit Gurley and they got a good taste of an all-around back with Barkley last week. For our offense, the key will be to control Donald. I feel like the best way to neutralize him is with roll-outs and bootlegs. Don't allow his inside pressure to affect the pocket by moving the pocket. I also like the idea of running Howard right where Donald was. Allow him to get inside a gap, seal him off and let Howard go into the next gap. Without Kupp, who was a popular 3rd down target for Goff, they will have to look to Cooks and Woods. We have 5 players with at least 30 receptions, the Rams have 3x playing (Gurley, Cooks, and Woods). We are 3-pt underdogs at home, which is essentially a TD gap on a neutral field. I feel like this is going to be a back and forth game with the Bears getting the ball last and winning. The weather may play a role in the game's outcome, sub-30 temps is expected (Bear weather!). This, with our fans is our home field advantage. Bears 27-24 Minnesota plays in Seattle, and Green Bay hosts Atlanta. A win for us and losses for those two teams would make our magic number 1 with 3 to play.

I was traveling during the game, but saw the highlights. What an epic game by Cohen. I was surprised to see Barkley have so many yards. That play right before halftime that got them into FG was deadly. That was essentially the difference in the game. What the hell were the officials doing on the Cohen TD that was called down by contact. That is the worst call in the game because you can't challenge it. They shouldn't blow those dead. Another game deciding blown call.

I thought I read that whatever suspension he got, it might exceed 6 games due to another incident (punching some dude in the face). What would suck would be for him to come in mid season and disrupt any chemistry with the current team.

Josh McDaniels would be interesting. Very few NE assistants have been successful.

Also, something worth noting, we have held a lead in the 2nd half in every game this season. If not for some freak plays (Cobb 75yd TD, Wilson 75yd TD, NE 2x Special Teams TDs, and Beckham 49yd TD pass), we would be undefeated. I have to also say we have been on the short end of the stick on a lot of calls or blown calls. The Cohen one was another game changing one. Refs have killed us this year.

You are correct, we lost to NE at Soldier Field.

I am going with Bears 27-10

NO looked very ordinary against Dallas. Pittsburgh has a very good defense and a better offense. They can easily lose that one as well.

and MadLith picked up Ware before Hunt was even released, lol.

Howard will eventually go off.

That was quick. This behavior is getting out of hand. How many guys are doing crap like this all the time and getting away with it? Also, what type of idiot chick (19 yr old) is hanging out with dudes like Hunt (23 yrs old) at 3am?

So with the Dallas win, things get very interesting for us for a potential first-round bye. First off, our only chance is to take care of our own business and win out (or at least go 4-1). 4-1 seems realistic, and if we can beat the Rams, we are in great shape. Either way, if we win out, we would finish with a 11-1 conference record and would have the conference tiebreaker over NO and LAR (both with 2x conf loss). Now to move up to the 2nd or 1st seed, we would need some help, but after the Dallas game, I am not as high on NO as I was before the game. NO finishes at TB, at CAR, vs PIT, and vs CAR. If they lose even one of those games, we have a shot at passing them in the seeding. If they lose two, which would not be crazy (at CAR and PIT), they would end up 12-4, which would allow us to go 4-1 and still get a first-round bye. That seems like a very realistic scenario. For LAR, they are at DET, at CHI, vs PHI, at ARZ, and at SF. The only two games they have any shot at losing is vs us at Soldier Field and vs PHI. So it actually seems like they have a better shot at the #1 seed than NO does. What do you think? I am thinking something like this is a realistic possibility: 1. LAR 14-2 (4-1) 2. CHI 12-4 (4-1) ------------------------- 3. NO 12-4 (2-2) 4. DAL 10-6 (3-1) 5. SEA 10-6 (4-1) 6. MIN 9-6-1 (3-2)

Good find, I didn't see the actual quote.